Vulcan B3 in the Falklands

B3 was a proposed Vulcan variant that was never built but was proposed to carry the Skybolt air launched ICBM (before that was cancelled).

But suppose a dozen or so were ordered before skybolt was cancelled, and still in service for Black Buck missions in Operation Corporate in 1982.

Technical Differences:

1. Longer range - instead of about 15 victor tankers to get a Vulcan to the Falklands and back, you need only maybe 2, perhaps 4 (if vulcan is fully loaded). Anyway the consequence is you can easily get multiple Vulcans over the falklands.

2. More hard points - some later Black Buck missions carried 2 shrikes on B2a Vulcan hardpoints. B3s could easily carry 6 shrikes.

3. Victors were used for Maritime Radar Recon (MRR) missions, especially over South Georgia. If Vulcan B3s were available, the victor MRR equipment would likely be transferred over, given the B3s longer range, and they'd be instead. Maybe Sea-Eagles* and sidewinders would be put on the Vulcan hard points in this configuration (sidewinders were very briefly considered as a Vulcan option in OTL). In this configuration, a Vulcan maybe carries 4 Sea Eagles, and 4 Sidewinders (2 pairs of 2) on its 6 hard-points.

* Sea-Eagles were available from 1982 in OTL, although not introduced into full service in 1985.... but in the Falklands OTL, multi-year programs suddenly became multi-week programs. So I don't see this being impossible.


So....

(A) Black Buck 1:

8 Vulcans hit Stanley;

- 2 hit the runway with 21 x 1000lb bombs using the classic 35-degree bombing pattern used in OTL.

- A follow-up wave of 6 hits the Stanley air defenses when the light up after the initial raid with 6 X 6 (=36) shrikes

Consequences:

1. Stanley runway has two major craters, and is unusable even by pucaras, or C-130s for air resupply (both used in OTL).

It is also 100% unavailable as a potential abort destination for Argentine fast jets, ... which maybe cuts Argentine aircraft time over the Falklands even more - if the war lasts that long.

2. Most Argentine air defences round Stanley are destroyed from the first night of major fighting.


(B) The Argentine Carrier

Before Belgrano - When a British SSN is having trouble finding the Argentine Carrier a Vulcan B3 MRR maybe sent to help look for it. It is quite likely to find it, because it can easily search large areas, the carrier's rough location is known, and it's north of the falklands, in the most likely search area. If the Vulcan finds it, 4 Sea Eagles are soon heading towards the carrier, which has no defences against this kind of attack.

Alternatively... an Argentine Type 42 may just bag a vulcan using Sea Dart, but that seems a long-shot.

Mmmmm, this is the sort of scenario that makes me smile!

For the B3 to be in service you obviously need Skybolt not to be cancelled so either McNamara is never let near the Pentagon or Britain is doing much better economically meaning it can afford to spend more money on big defence projects. The drawback in that for this scenario is that a powerful Britain in 1982 might mean that Argentina doesn't decide to invade.

I like the suggested raids in your OP, I've often wondered myself if the Vulcan could have been used in a tactical support role in the Falklands, carpet bombing Argentine troops in the mountains around Port Stanley just as B-52's did in Vietnam. As for the maritime role, IIRC there was an OTL proposal to develop a heavy anti-ship missile for the Vulcan that was cancelled on cost grounds. Now if that had seen the light of day then that would have been very useful in the South Atlantic!

The fuel requirements for a B3 are going to be higher if it's carrying a full load of bombs. That means more tankers per Vulcan, and the number of tankers are the limit on the mission. So I can't see carpet bombing being realistic.

Also the British are unbelievably desperately short of 1000 lb bombs by 1982.

No I think Skybolt is still cancelled, just maybe slightly later. B2as were prepared for skybolt, with Hardpoints in OTL - and the hard points were used for shrikes in Corporate. So all you need is B3s to be rolled out earlier, and skybolt still cancelled. Perhaps the B3s are ordered before Skybolt is cancelled, or a provisional order for B3s becomes firm, even though Skybolt is cancelled, when B3 is considered as a potential air-launched polaris carrier (also considered OTL), and the B3s are just more Vulcans once AL polaris is cancelled too.

in short B3s, could easily make it to the Vulcan fleet with no major changes in British nuclear strategy or general defence policy, just changes in details.

Looks interesting, finally someone suggests a good Falklands War POD.

But since the Argentine carrier spent the whole time in port IIRC, I think it would be more likely that the Vulcans attack targets on the Falklands, and Argentine ships in the area.

Does an attack on the Argentine airbase at Rio Grande, where the Etendards were stationed, seem possible?

Historically no real change but the coolness factor for the air war increases considerably.

Runways can be repaired. AAA guns can't but, then again, we are talking about using dumb bombs dropped as high as possible, so we shouldn't assume a success rate similar to modern guided bombs.

The drawback in that for this scenario is that a powerful Britain in 1982 might mean that Argentina doesn't decide to invade.

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How is adverting a war "a drawback"?

Radars destroyed will get replaced, and will be shut down the next time a black buck raid is detected. The Falklands War wasn't Desert Storm. Overall, the RAF will get to hit the runway in the islands a few times, but it just gets repaired within a day or so. More successful black buck missions might make the Argentinian Air Force to deploy interceptors at the time when the bombers can reach the islands. Whether they are successful or not is another matter, specially if the Vulcans are equipped with sidewinders or escorted by harriers. At high altitude, though, Argentinean Mirages can easily outrun the harriers. Another possible response might be to dismantle the Sea Dart battery in one of the type 42 destroyers and set it up, ground based, in the Stanley airport. Something like that was done with an Exocet battery.

The British best bet is to take advantage of the AAF lack of night flying capabilities. Otherwise, a bomber attack on carriers or air bases will be facing fighter opposition. And while the RN can provide escort for an attack on the 25 de Mayo very early in the war, they can't escort Vulcans up to Tierra del Fuego without getting the carriers too close to the continent and at great risk of detection and air attack

Few details regarding last few points:

1. Bomb accuracy for 21 X 1000 lb bombs.

You can rely (80%+ chance I'd say) on each of these raids getting 1 or 2 bombs on the runway. It'll never be more. There's an outside chance of a complete miss, but it's unlikely.

The reason is the British dropped a line of bombs at 35 degrees to the runway, with spacing less than width of the runway. So either one hits in the middle more or less, or 2 hit towards the sides.

2. Number of 21 X 1000 lb bombs over the Falklands.

Realistically I don't think you can get more a part handful vulcans so equipped over the Falklands at a time. Not enough tankers.

Also the British are going to run out of 1000lb bombs after a few raids. Like I said, they are desperately short.


3. Runway repair.

There was no runway repair equipment on the Falklands, and none is coming unless a freighter can run the gauntlet of SSNs.

In OTL the Argentine's did an improvised repair - imperfectly, but the runway was marginal for C-130s after Black Buck 1, and there was no chance of fast jets after that. Even before then MB339s & Pucaras were the only argentine fighting aircraft deployed to Stanley.


4. Argentine air defences.

The Roland battery in Stanley was the only ground-based thing that could take out the Vulcan in OTL. If it gets taken out by a shrike, then the Vulcans are largely invulnerable except against fighters, and maybe Sea Dart.

Sea Dart - I'm not sure how realistic it would be to take it out of a Type 42. Alternatively, the Argentines could park a Type 42 in Stanley harbour. In theory, it would be ideal for taking out a medium or high level Vulcan if the Argentines could deploy it.

Also, the Vulcans had the Dash 10 ECM pod (taken from RAF Buccs). OTL the British had the ability to, and did, tune it to work against Roland. I'm sure they'd know what to do against Sea Dart too.


5. Argentine fighters shooting down a Vulcan:

I think it's unlikely, because by the time a Mirage scrambles from the mainland, the Vulcans will be gone.

In OTL, the Argentine's had no warning of Black Buck 1, until the bombs starting exploding on the runway. (an Argentine radar did detect the the Vulcan immediately before the raid, but it didn't have time to identify it or inform the Argentine command)

juanml82 said:

Runways can be repaired. AAA guns can't but, then again, we are talking about using dumb bombs dropped as high as possible, so we shouldn't assume a success rate similar to modern guided bombs.
How is adverting a war "a drawback"?

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The bombs were not dropped as high as possible. they were dropped from 10,000 feet, using a tactic the RAF had been using for 40 years.

The Vulcan was the most accurate of NATO bombers in the late 70s, it had proven bomb aiming computer, and basically laid down a long line of bombs that only needed to touch the runway at any point.

The chance of missing the runway completely was unlikely.

KyleB said:

Looks interesting, finally someone suggests a good Falklands War POD.

But since the Argentine carrier spent the whole time in port IIRC, I think it would be more likely that the Vulcans attack targets on the Falklands, and Argentine ships in the area.

Does an attack on the Argentine airbase at Rio Grande, where the Etendards were stationed, seem possible?

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The Argentine Carrier was at sea at the time of Black Buck 1. It was preparing to launch an air-strike on the British fleet, and was North of the Falklands. It returned to port after the Belgrano was sunk.

It avoided being sunk by an SSN twice in the war.

1. Early in the war (just before Belgrano), it was shadowed by a British SSN, but permission to sink it wasn't granted in time

2. Later in the war, it redeployed along the Argentine coast. It was shadowed by an SSN again, which was ready to sink it if it left the 12 mile limit. It didn't, so it survived.


Rio Grande might be technically possible - just - but it would likely be ineffective, unless the British used LGBs - that could be possible.

British used LGBs on Harriers during the war, so maybe a Vulcan could drop some, with SAS nearby providing laser designation.

1. Bomb accuracy for 21 X 1000 lb bombs.

You can rely (80%+ chance I'd say) on each of these raids getting 1 or 2 bombs on the runway. It'll never be more. There's an outside chance of a complete miss, but it's unlikely.

The reason is the British dropped a line of bombs at 35 degrees to the runway, with spacing less than width of the runway. So either one hits in the middle more or less, or 2 hit towards the sides.

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The Vulcan was the most accurate of NATO bombers in the late 70s, it had proven bomb aiming computer, and basically laid down a long line of bombs that only needed to touch the runway at any point.

The chance of missing the runway completely was unlikely.

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I'd go with real life performance rather than suspected capabilities or the manufacturer's description. Of course, since ITTL only two missions were tasked with bombing the runway, that doesn't mean much. In any case, ITTL, one mission hit and the other missed.

4. Argentine air defences.

The Roland battery in Stanley was the only ground-based thing that could take out the Vulcan in OTL. If it gets taken out by a shrike, then the Vulcans are largely invulnerable except against fighters, and maybe Sea Dart.

Sea Dart - I'm not sure how realistic it would be to take it out of a Type 42. Alternatively, the Argentines could park a Type 42 in Stanley harbour. In theory, it would be ideal for taking out a medium or high level Vulcan if the Argentines could deploy it.

Also, the Vulcans had the Dash 10 ECM pod (taken from RAF Buccs). OTL the British had the ability to, and did, tune it to work against Roland. I'm sure they'd know what to do against Sea Dart too.

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Shrikes are far from a magic bullet. The missile doesn't store the target's position, so simply turning off the radar causes the missile to miss. That was known at that time and it's the reason why the RAF couldn't destroy the long range radar in the islands. While the first strike, having achieved surprise, might make a successful use of the missile, further strikes are likely to fail.
Parking a Type 42 in harbour is, of course, a far more powerful option. However, it has to be done before the Task Force reaches the islands. That might run against the "the British aren't going to war" stupidity.

5. Argentine fighters shooting down a Vulcan:

I think it's unlikely, because by the time a Mirage scrambles from the mainland, the Vulcans will be gone.

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Yeah, I was thinking more about trying to keep a CAP of Mirages in the air over the Falklands just in case, but it's just too much of a stretch, given limited time over the area.

Argentina didn't know the British had Shrike (until it was used first time) - because they didn't, until the Americans gave it to them.

It's pretty doubtful their troops would therefore anticipate it, or take counter measures on the first raid.

I checked by the way, there were 4 fire control radars in Stanley, plus the Roland.

So it doesn't seem impossible to take them all out.

As for the 2nd Vulcan raid on the runway in OTL - I thought they hit the very end of it?

I agree - I don't think the CAP is feasible. The Argentines don't have the tankers, and they're short on spare parts & serviciblity etc.

Argentina didn't know the British had Shrike (until it was used first time) - because they didn't, until the Americans gave it to them.

It's pretty doubtful their troops would therefore anticipate it, or take counter measures on the first raid.

I checked by the way, there were 4 fire control radars in Stanley, plus the Roland.

So it doesn't seem impossible to take them all out.

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Those SAMs and radars will be replaced ASAP by equipment in the mainland, taken to the islands with C130s once the runway is repaired.

As for the 2nd Vulcan raid on the runway in OTL - I thought they hit the very end of it?

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Nope. Missed it.