French peacekeepers vs. the Israeli Air Force in Lebanon.

Vladimir

Banned
Following the Second Lebanon War in 2006, Israel accused UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon), of doing nothing to enforce the UN arms embargo on Hezbollah, and the Israeli Air Force began reconnaisance flights over Lebanon to monitor its rearmament. France, the lead contributor of troops to UNIFIL, opposed these flights, and it was hinted that French peacekeepers might act with force against them (French peacekeeping units have been equipped with AA missiles since the Ivory Coast incident in 2004).

On October 21, 2006, Israeli jets flew over many areas of Lebanon, and flew in formation over a French position, in what French troops interpreted as an attack position. The French prepared an anti-aircraft missile. According to French Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie, the soldiers were "two seconds away" from firing.

What would have happened if they had fired and shot down a jet? It is beyond doubt that an Israeli missile would immediately come zinging into the French AA position. There would certainly be French casualties.

What are the effects? Do the Israeli jets proceed to rain down missiles and bombs on the entire position or pull off and disengage? Does France retaliate militarily or diplomatically? How does the diplomatic confrontation that will undoubtedly ensue play out? And does the French public demand Israel be held accountable or demand the withdrawal of French troops? And if France, UNIFIL's leading contributor withdraws, how does this effect UNIFIL and the situation in South Lebanon?
 

Riain

Banned
What happens is the Israelis, who know exactly where the French are and have a good idea of their capabilities, decoy the SAM or the French explode it prematurely and nobody is hurt. But the point is made and negotiations ensue, Israel and France are not going to war.
 
The French people will likely be very upset. I'm not sure how Sarko the American would react. Was this prior to the election? (It could lead to President Royale or (HORROR!) President Le Pen.)
 
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