Happy and Glorious.

[Shaby]

Originally Posted by Devolved

The RAF also sent 211 Lancaster and Lincoln bombers in a night raid on the railway hub of Dresden. The raid caused extensive damage to the transport system as well as killing over 4,000 people.

I do not remember, but was there a Dresden strike in your timeline? The one from march 1945? If there was, then end the misery of the city by atomic weapon.

BTW, using Nazi generals by the Allies may make sense, but it gives an excellent propaganda weapon to the Soviets. Very powerful to use in internal propaganda.

[Devolved]

Originally Posted by Shaby

I do not remember, but was there a Dresden strike in your timeline? The one from march 1945? If there was, then end the misery of the city by atomic weapon.

BTW, using Nazi generals by the Allies may make sense, but it gives an excellent propaganda weapon to the Soviets. Very powerful to use in internal propaganda.

Dresden was spared the 1945 horror and was only raided a little.

[Devolved]

Originally Posted by usertron2020

Devolved

For readability, I would suggest this:

Every moment is now absolutely critical. Posting everything simply on one single day or two is getting very hard to read and keep clear in terms of storytelling. Would you consider posting the updates in hour-to-hour (or at least several hours) segments so that people can get a more accurate sense of when these events are taking place? After all, the events from August 6th-15th 1945 OTL could easily have been posted in, say, 4-6 hour segments, where applicable that is.

This would be using local as well as GMT of course.

I think an hour by hour report all across the globe could become a cluster and some readers may get confused with information overload.

I've been trying to keep it simple by having the date as a heading and then the main events in each country that day. Obviously that means some events are left out or skipped over.

When things become very critical then the updates could be reduced to hours rather than days.

Finally the point about reducing August 6th -15th 1945 into 4-6 hour segments would have meant at least 36-54 segments to cover 9 days.

[usertron2020]

At this point, the USAAC would have designated targets in the USSR long ago (hell, there are still plans laying around to fight off invasions from Canada and Mexico!) and unless one sixth of the world's landmass is now covered by a new Ice Age, SOME suitable targets are now available. The leaflets are a good idea, but the USSR themselves did a pretty good job of propagandizing the horrors of atomic warfare, and the evils of American perfidy for ever using such a weapon, and the dangers of their ever using it again.

So the Soviet people essentially are already well-educated in terms of what they face. Considering the reputation for American technical expertise in aerial strategic warfare (as it existed by this time in the minds of Soviet citizenry) its no wonder that even people living in "relatively" safer cities would be fleeing their homes.

It's nice that in this very narrow timeframe (January 20th-22nd) the Soviet government's only real response to the Bomb is to just keep rearranging those deck chairs all the harder.

BTW? The Militia (police) are basically a national police force. They are not in up to the level of the NKVD. There would scarcely be enough NKVD troops and barrage battalions in the entire USSR to stop ONE city's population from pouring out past the city limits. THEY would do it, but the Militia would not. The Militia would have no problem with crushing riots and putting down strikes, but these people are LOCAL police, with their own homes, their own extended families and neighbors all being mutually threatened with instant annihilation. And the only thing worse than being vaporized by the Bomb is being caught outside the epicenter, two miles beyond Ground Zero but with ten miles of the blast area.

So for all intents and purposes, Stalin is left with Party troops (barrage battalions) and the NKVD. The problem with that is those two organization are scattered far and wide driving the Red Army forward on offensives all over Eurasia!

The Soviet State is like a steam engine with the heat beyond maximum, and all the steam valves sealed shut. All it will take is the start of the atomic campaign and the engine will blow sky high. And its only been three days...

[Astrodragon]

Just a couple of questions.

Whats going on in Greece, especialy now the Russians are attacking Bulgaria.

Would I be correct in assuming Canadian divisions are also being prepared to cross the Atlantic?

[Devolved]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

Just a couple of questions.

Whats going on in Greece, especialy now the Russians are attacking Bulgaria.

Would I be correct in assuming Canadian divisions are also being prepared to cross the Atlantic?

At the moment the Greek civil war is pretty much ticking along as a few days earlier. The Albanians are sending troops across the border to aid their friends and they will feature in the next update.

Canada doesn't have much to send. They demobilized pretty quickly in 1945 and they were the first to leave Europe completely. Unless I'm mistaken OTL the Canadians didn't return to Europe until NATO came into existence in 1949.

Their main contribution is going to be the navy and air force. Some troops will be sent but I can't see them making much of a difference.

[Devolved]

Originally Posted by usertron2020

I wasn't clear enough. I was mostly referring to the initial shock around the world, followed by the intensive events inside Japan prior to the ceasefire. So maybe 10-15 segments, but short ones.

At this point, the USAAC would have designated targets in the USSR long ago (hell, there are still plans laying around to fight off invasions from Canada and Mexico!) and unless one sixth of the world's landmass is now covered by a new Ice Age, SOME suitable targets are now available. The leaflets are a good idea, but the USSR themselves did a pretty good job of propagandizing the horrors of atomic warfare, and the evils of American perfidy for ever using such a weapon, and the dangers of their ever using it again.

So the Soviet people essentially are already well-educated in terms of what they face. Considering the reputation for American technical expertise in aerial strategic warfare (as it existed by this time in the minds of Soviet citizenry) its no wonder that even people living in "relatively" safer cities would be fleeing their homes.

It's nice that in this very narrow timeframe (January 20th-22nd) the Soviet government's only real response to the Bomb is to just keep rearranging those deck chairs all the harder.

BTW? The Militia (police) are basically a national police force. They are not in up to the level of the NKVD. There would scarcely be enough NKVD troops and barrage battalions in the entire USSR to stop ONE city's population from pouring out past the city limits. THEY would do it, but the Militia would not. The Militia would have no problem with crushing riots and putting down strikes, but these people are LOCAL police, with their own homes, their own extended families and neighbors all being mutually threatened with instant annihilation. And the only thing worse than being vaporized by the Bomb is being caught outside the epicenter, two miles beyond Ground Zero but with ten miles of the blast area.

So for all intents and purposes, Stalin is left with Party troops (barrage battalions) and the NKVD. The problem with that is those two organization are scattered far and wide driving the Red Army forward on offensives all over Eurasia!

The Soviet State is like a steam engine with the heat beyond maximum, and all the steam valves sealed shut. All it will take is the start of the atomic campaign and the engine will blow sky high. And its only been three days...

The Soviets still have 30 odd divisions plus newly called up reservists still inside European Russia alone. These troops are being kept back to deal with any serious disorder.

At the moment the Soviets are using 110-120 divisions in their attacks in the West although many of these are being used to secure the rear especially in Poland as well as maintain control in Hungary and Romania.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by Devolved

The Soviets still have 30 odd divisions plus newly called up reservists still inside European Russia alone. These troops are being kept back to deal with any serious disorder.

At the moment the Soviets are using 110-120 divisions in their attacks in the West although many of these are being used to secure the rear especially in Poland as well as maintain control in Hungary and Romania.

I'm not questioning the ability of the Soviets to maintain control over rear areas in occupied territories. I'm questioning the viability of troops to be used in cities INSIDE the USSR where the A-Bombs will be actually falling. The European Russia of this time (including the Caucasus, Belarus, Ukraine, and the Baltics) consist of approx. 5,100,000 square kilometers. That's about one man guarding/controlling 500 square kilometers, give or take. 30 divisions represent little more than garrison troops in the largest cities. Enough to defend the city and deal with SOME level of internal disorder (considering the relative lack of enthusiasm the Soviet troops may have at this point, unless they use "wild divisions"), but not enough to stop people from leaving. It's a drop in the bucket compared to the security nightmare they face, and what they would need. They do nothing to prevent people from leaving. Or controlling desertions. How many of these "reserves" are even going to show up, rather than as everyone else will do? Namely, get the hell out of Dodge?

But again, it's only been a few days. The real fireworks haven't even started yet.

This is the quintessential miscalculation Stalin has made regarding going into total war with an enemy that has atomic weapons at their disposal. The USSR's own plans called for mass evacuation in time of nuclear war. But in choosing to engage in a war of aggression in WINTERTIME, for TACTICAL reasons, with minimal civilian preparation, he has left his people with two choices:

1) Flee the cities (where all the food and fuel is), and freeze/starve to death

2) Stay and die, horribly

IOW, die slow or die fast. But die.

[Devolved]

Originally Posted by usertron2020

I'm not questioning the ability of the Soviets to maintain control over rear areas in occupied territories. I'm questioning the viability of troops to be used in cities INSIDE the USSR where the A-Bombs will be actually falling. The European Russia of this time (including the Caucasus, Belarus, Ukraine, and the Baltics) consist of approx. 5,100,000 square kilometers. That's about one man guarding/controlling 500 square kilometers, give or take. 30 divisions represent little more than garrison troops in the largest cities. Enough to defend the city and deal with SOME level of internal disorder (considering the relative lack of enthusiasm the Soviet troops may have at this point, unless they use "wild divisions"), but not enough to stop people from leaving. It's a drop in the bucket compared to the security nightmare they face, and what they would need. They do nothing to prevent people from leaving. Or controlling desertions. How many of these "reserves" are even going to show up, rather than as everyone else will do and get the hell out of Dodge?

But again, it's only been a few days. The real fireworks haven't even started yet.

This is the quintessential miscalculation Stalin has made regarding going into total war with an enemy that has atomic weapons at their disposal. The USSR's own plans called for mass evacuation in time of nuclear war. But in choosing to engage in a war of aggression in WINTERTIME, for TACTICAL reasons, with minimal civilian preparation, he has left his people with two choices:

1) Flee the cities (where all the food and fuel is), and freeze/starve to death

2) Stay and die, horribly

IOW, die slow or die fast. But die.

Stalin has definitely miscalculated. Although he understands the physical power of the Atom Bomb he has failed to understand the profound psychological changes that have taken place. During the WW2 he had seen his country endure terrible hardship and huge casualties. He thinks that they can do it again if he WILLS IT.

[Magnum]

Originally Posted by Devolved

At the moment the Soviets are using 110-120 divisions in their attacks in the West although many of these are being used to secure the rear especially in Poland as well as maintain control in Hungary and Romania.

Speaking of Romania, how's the political situation there ITTL ?

OTL, the communist-dominated government had only been recognized by the US and UK by february 1946, and it still had several members of democratic factions.

Democratic parties were still quite popular, having obtained almost 60% in the november 1946 elections (although the communists changed the election outcome, giving themselves 80%)

In the cities especially, the ethnic romanian middle class was very much against the communists, while a large part of the rural population was as well.

If I recall correctly, there were serious strikes conducted by factiry workers in early 1946, which the government only managed to quell by importing large quantities of food, something I doubt they'll be able to do here.

Most importantly, the army had not yet been thoroughly purged of royalist officers. In fact, it was only in January 1946 that DESPA (Direcția Superioară pentru Educație, Cultură și Propagandă a Armatei) - a sort of army propaganda office - had begun to systematically operate amongst army units. Many of the junior officers, and a still sizeable part of the senior ones (men such as general Avramescu, commanding the IV Army, Dragomir-deputy chief of staff, or Drăgănescu commanding the second mountain division) were still loyal to the democratic parties and the king. It was only in June and later when 7600 junior officers and almost 150 generals were removed.

After some limited research of several sources, I came up with these figures regarding the Romania army sometime in 1946:

Bucharest: Guards Division (probably still heavily royalist), 1st volunteer division „TUDOR VLADIMIRESCU” (created in the Soviet Union - 100% communist)

Sibiu: 2nd Infantry Division (probably still heavily royalist), 2nd volunteer division „HOREA, CLOSCA și CRISAN” (100% communist), 1 heavy artillery regiment, 1 pioneer regiment, 1 cavalry regiment (all of unknown loyalties, but I'm leaning towards royalist)

Somewhere in Transilvania: 18th infantry division, formed out out several former mountain divisions (big chances of them being royalist, given that the mountain troops were the elite forces of the old regime)

Cluj: 2nd mountain divison (even it's commander, general Drăgănescu, was arrested months later for being a royalist)

(BTW, where did you get the figure for only 2 romanian divisions ?)

The police and gendarmes, still leftovers of the old regime (and thus probably mostly royalist) numbered 700 in Bucharest and 14.000 across the country, paling in comparison to the new, communist policing organizations, such as the new Securitate and the "citizens committees", which were said to outnumber the old police greatly.

The communists thus have, in January 1946, IMHO, the backing of only a part of the professional armed forces (my guess being 2 of the 6 divisions I found to exist at that point), relying instead heavily on paramilitary formations and soviet troops.

Given that WW3 has broken out, might we see a second coup attempted by king Michael and the democratic forces, if the soviets move significant amounts of their own formations away from the interior and towards the front line in Bulgaria or elsewhere ? It could seriously destabilize the entire soviet front in the area.

Love the TL. Keep it up !

[Devolved]

Originally Posted by Magnum

Speaking of Romania, how's the political situation there ITTL ?

OTL, the communist-dominated government had only been recognized by the US and UK by february 1946, and it still had several members of democratic factions.

Democratic parties were still quite popular, having obtained almost 60% in the november 1946 elections (although the communists changed the election outcome, giving themselves 80%)

In the cities especially, the ethnic romanian middle class was very much against the communists, while a large part of the rural population was as well.

If I recall correctly, there were serious strikes conducted by factiry workers in early 1946, which the government only managed to quell by importing large quantities of food, something I doubt they'll be able to do here.

Most importantly, the army had not yet been thoroughly purged of royalist officers. In fact, it was only in January 1946 that DESPA (Direcția Superioară pentru Educație, Cultură și Propagandă a Armatei) - a sort of army propaganda office - had begun to systematically operate amongst army units. Many of the junior officers, and a still sizeable part of the senior ones (men such as general Avramescu, commanding the IV Army, Dragomir-deputy chief of staff, or Drăgănescu commanding the second mountain division) were still loyal to the democratic parties and the king. It was only in June and later when 7600 junior officers and almost 150 generals were removed.

After some limited research of several sources, I came up with these figures regarding the Romania army sometime in 1946:

Bucharest: Guards Division (probably still heavily royalist), 1st volunteer division „TUDOR VLADIMIRESCU” (created in the Soviet Union - 100% communist)

Sibiu: 2nd Infantry Division (probably still heavily royalist), 2nd volunteer division „HOREA, CLOSCA și CRISAN” (100% communist), 1 heavy artillery regiment, 1 pioneer regiment, 1 cavalry regiment (all of unknown loyalties, but I'm leaning towards royalist)

Somewhere in Transilvania: 18th infantry division, formed out out several former mountain divisions (big chances of them being royalist, given that the mountain troops were the elite forces of the old regime)

Cluj: 2nd mountain divison (even it's commander, general Drăgănescu, was arrested months later for being a royalist)

(BTW, where did you get the figure for only 2 romanian divisions ?)

The police and gendarmes, still leftovers of the old regime (and thus probably mostly royalist) numbered 700 in Bucharest and 14.000 across the country, paling in comparison to the new, communist policing organizations, such as the new Securitate and the "citizens committees", which were said to outnumber the old police greatly.

The communists thus have, in January 1946, IMHO, the backing of only a part of the professional armed forces (my guess being 2 of the 6 divisions I found to exist at that point), relying instead heavily on paramilitary formations and soviet troops.

Given that WW3 has broken out, might we see a second coup attempted by king Michael and the democratic forces, if the soviets move significant amounts of their own formations away from the interior and towards the front line in Bulgaria or elsewhere ? It could seriously destabilize the entire soviet front in the area.

Love the TL. Keep it up !

The Romanian situation is that the Soviets entered Romania in WW2 much later ITTL than they did OTL so the non communists are actually stronger. I am still thinking about the position of the King in this situation. Romania was accepted as part of the Soviet bloc in return for compromise in Bulgaria.

I have already had partisan activity and strikes spreading through the country so watch Romania in the next few days.

[Magnum]

Originally Posted by Devolved

The Romanian situation is that the Soviets entered Romania in WW2 much later ITTL than they did OTL so the non communists are actually stronger

that makes sense.

I am still thinking about the position of the King in this situation

Well, if he's still in office, he's bound to try something. I mean, the guy had the balls to stand up to Hitler and the dictator Antonescu at the age of 23, with nazi forces merely miles from the capital.

He returned to Romania from Elizabeths wedding in late 1947, proving great courage and putting his life in serious danger, in the vain hope of trying to salvage something from the situation.

So he is by no means a coward who would stand idly by.

[Devolved]

Originally Posted by Magnum

that makes sense.




Well, if he's still in office, he's bound to try something. I mean, the guy had the balls to stand up to Hitler and the dictator Antonescu at the age of 23, with nazi forces merely miles from the capital.

He returned to Romania from Elizabeths wedding in late 1947, proving great courage and putting his life in serious danger, in the vain hope of trying to salvage something from the situation.

So he is by no means a coward who would stand idly by.

It's not just about bravery it's also about timing. OTL the King waited for the right moment. I think he will do the same here too.

[abc123]

Originally Posted by Devolved

I think an hour by hour report all across the globe could become a cluster and some readers may get confused with information overload.

I've been trying to keep it simple by having the date as a heading and then the main events in each country that day. Obviously that means some events are left out or skipped over.

When things become very critical then the updates could be reduced to hours rather than days.

Finally the point about reducing August 6th -15th 1945 into 4-6 hour segments would have meant at least 36-54 segments to cover 9 days.

I agree. Just continue with current style.

[Devolved]

Happy and Glorious

continued


January 22nd 1947



USSR



After reading the reports on the progress of his forces as well as the worrying European weather reports that showed temperatures falling to those comparable to Siberia, Stalin finally issued his list of demands to the Allies.

Through his representatives at the apparently irrelevent United Nations he had already issued a statement on January 19th in which he regretted that this 'war of self preservation' was necessary. Now the statement of demands read as follows:


The Path to an Everlasting Peace


The payment of reparations from the Western Zone of Germany as agreed at the Berlin Conference in 1945 and subsequently violated by the Allies.

The liability for reparations being extended to Austria as she was an integral and willing part of the Third Reich.

The payment of reparations from Italy for the damage done by their army in WW2.

International recognition for the Iranian Azerbaijan Peoples Republic.

International recognition of the eastern border of Germany.

The establishment of a peaceful democratic government in Poland

The dissolution of the Croat Fascist Republic of West Yugoslavia and the reconstitution of Yugoslavia as a unified state. This is to be followed by free and fair nationwide elections in which the people could have the government of their choice.

The end of the oppression of Communist parties and Trades Unions in Europe.

The Anti Soviet and belligerent Treaty of Istanbul to be dissolved.

Free and fair elections in the whole of Germany under United Nations supervision.

The neutralization of Germany and the withdrawal of all foreign troops within 5 years.

The Atom Bomb to be placed under international control.

Palestine to be placed under United Nations administration.

An International Conference on global disarmament.

TBC

[Garrison]

Well I think we know how the Allies are going to respond to that...

[Shaby]

Even if we assume that Soviet offer is genuine, Allies would be in a different frame of mind now. In and of itself and if the offer is genuine, it is not a bad alternative to a wholesale slaughter.

[Garrison]

Originally Posted by Shaby

Even if we assume that Soviet offer is genuine, Allies would be in a different frame of mind now. In and of itself and if the offer is genuine, it is not a bad alternative to a wholesale slaughter.

It's essentially the same rubbish Stalin agreed to OTL and promptly ignored; the Allies are not going to fall for it ITTL,

[Devolved]

Originally Posted by Shaby

Even if we assume that Soviet offer is genuine, Allies would be in a different frame of mind now. In and of itself and if the offer is genuine, it is not a bad alternative to a wholesale slaughter.

The offer comes from Stalin so it must be genuine.

[usertron2020]

Originally Posted by Devolved

January 22nd 1947

The Path to an Everlasting Peace

Actually it's the Path to Everlasting World Revolution, but don't expect us to actually SAY that. After all, we've still got all those useful idiots out there to employ. It wouldn't do us very good to suddenly start using the language of a Red Hitler, now would it?

The payment of reparations from the Western Zone of Germany as agreed at the Berlin Conference in 1945 and subsequently violated by the Allies.

The liability for reparations being extended to Austria as she was an integral and willing part of the Third Reich.

The payment of reparations from Italy for the damage done by their army in WW2.

We need lots of $$$ to prepare to launch WWIV. And Soviet Atom Bombs cost $$$.

International recognition for the Iranian Azerbaijan Peoples Republic.

Oops! I mean, Iranian Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic, with a "re-unification" plebiscite for the whole of Azerbaijan, to be monitored by the peace-loving peoples of the NKVD.

International recognition of the eastern border of Germany.

On the Elbe River.

The establishment of a peaceful democratic government in Poland

Make that Peoples Democratic Republic of Poland

The dissolution of the Croat Fascist Republic of West Yugoslavia and the reconstitution of Yugoslavia as a unified state. This is to be followed by free and fair nationwide elections in which the people could have the government of their choice.

LOLROTF

The end of the oppression of Communist parties and Trades Unions in Europe.

Unless they fail to do as we tell them to do. In which case, feel free to open up on them with machine guns.

The Anti Soviet and belligerent Treaty of Istanbul to be dissolved.

Everybody knows Turkey belongs to us! Even Hitler agreed to that.

Free and fair elections in the whole of Germany under United Nations supervision.

All UN troops to be supplied by the USSR

The neutralization of Germany and the withdrawal of all foreign troops within 5 years.

We should have our own Bomb (and a good stockpile) by then, and it'll be easy pickings.

The Atom Bomb to be placed under international control.

This is so ASB I can't even come up with a joke. It's too much of a joke by itself.

Palestine to be placed under United Nations administration.

Wow. Broken clock right twice a day, I guess.

An International Conference on global disarmament.

TBC

Can't have treaties being made between former warring powers that both have the same government in power as status ante-bellum!. As I said earlier, when was the last time one side's government in a major war between two or more major powers didn't end up falling in disgrace? The Crimean War? Even then, the ruling coalition collapsed, leading to the Palmerston Government. Though in fairness, a change in ruling parties is hardly a "collapse" of the ruling government. Palmerston becoming Prime Minister was not the establishment of the Third Republic following the Franco-Prussian War.

Besides, in all of this, Russia will truly be glowing in the dark and suffering full economic collapse long before their own A-Bomb can come on line.