WI: Some Israeli soldier kills Ahmadinejad during his visit to Lebanon in 2010?

MarioLuigi

Banned
When Ahmadinejad visited Lebanon in 2010, he initially planned to throw rocks at Israeli soldiers on the other side of the border. However, he later cancelled this plan. What if Ahmadinejad went through with his plan and threw some rocks and Israeli soldiers on the Israel-Lebanon border? Assume that one right-wing Israeli soldier sees this as a good opportunity to shoot Ahmadinejad in self-defense. So this soldier shoots and kills Ahmadinejad.

How would the Israeli govt. respond to this incident? Would they be willing to punish a soldier who killed a man that many Israelis considered to be the next Hitler? Also, if Israel refused to punish this soldier, how would a war between Israel and Iran look like? Also, would Iran try actively retaliating against the U.S. for its support of Israel?
 
You're suggesting Iran's response would hinge on Israel officially punishing (or not) a soldier who had just SHOT IRAN'S PRESIDENT DEAD??!

Iran would react the same in either case, which would be to tell Hezbollah and Hamas to throw everything they have Israel's way. Iran has absolutely no way to attack Israel directly.
 
Iran uses it as propaganda and throws terrorists at the problem while the Mullahs with the actual power in the country find another figurehead.

Stewacide said:
Iran has absolutely no way to attack Israel directly.

You mean besides ballistic missiles?
 

MarioLuigi

Banned
You're suggesting Iran's response would hinge on Israel officially punishing (or not) a soldier who had just SHOT IRAN'S PRESIDENT DEAD??!

Iran would react the same in either case, which would be to tell Hezbollah and Hamas to throw everything they have Israel's way. Iran has absolutely no way to attack Israel directly.

I think that Iran would retaliate against Israel either way but a war against Israel and the U.S. could have a lot of negative consequences for Iran and its regime, and thus Iran might be a little more cautious in pushing for all-out war if Israel tries to punish that soldier. That said, how badly could Iran retaliate against Israel, either directly or indirectly? Also, would Iran use this as an opportunity to retaliate against the U.S. as well or not?

Also, who would Iran's new President have been?
 
I view this as unlikely, any ways its a big mess, the Death of Ahmadinejad might re-spark the Green Protests, its likely Khamenei would take personal control for a time and I can see the Revolutionary Guards would go to Lebanon, Hezbollah coup in Lebanon
 

MarioLuigi

Banned
I view this as unlikely, any ways its a big mess, the Death of Ahmadinejad might re-spark the Green Protests, its likely Khamenei would take personal control for a time and I can see the Revolutionary Guards would go to Lebanon, Hezbollah coup in Lebanon

This event would have been unlikely, but hardly impossible. A Hezbollah coup in Lebanon sounds interesting. Would Hamas and Hezbollah be willing to put all their efforts in retaliating, considering that Israel just recently aggressively crushed them (in 2006 and 2008-9)? Also, how bad could things get for U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan?
 
You mean besides ballistic missiles?

Iranian missiles are of dubious range and accuracy, carry small conventional payloads, and are up against Israel's 20-years-in-the-making built-for-purpose missile defence system.

Hysterical over-reaction notwithstanding Saddam's missile attacks on Israel had practically no physical effect. I suspect an Iranian attack would be more of the same: a golden opportunity for CNN correspondents to over-act, but little danger to anyone in the grand scheme (especially considering the real damage Hezbollah and Hamas can inflict, albeit at extreme cost to themselves).

re: those two, I think Hezbollah accounted very well for itself in the Lebanon war. If it can tempt Israel into more of the same I don't see why it would turn out much differently (Hezbollah will still be well-dug in, will have lots of pre-placed IEDs, and will have loads of anti-tank rockets)
 
Iranian missiles are of dubious range and accuracy,

Their range is well proven. Accuracy is the same as always (ie: you'll hit the city), so in the end is more psychological then anything.

carry small conventional payloads, and are up against Israel's 20-years-in-the-making built-for-purpose missile defense system.
And untested against the Shahab-3, although I would still give it good odds... although that translates into a 70% interception rate under a realistic attack scenario, at best.

Hysterical over-reaction notwithstanding Saddam's missile attacks on Israel had practically no physical effect. I suspect an Iranian attack would be more of the same: a golden opportunity for CNN correspondents to over-act, but little danger to anyone in the grand scheme (especially considering the real damage Hezbollah and Hamas can inflict, albeit at extreme cost to themselves).
Unless they use chemicals (which would result in nuclear retaliation), pretty much. Still, it would be psychologically good for the Iranians as well... they'll have the perception that they themselves have hit back.

re: those two, I think Hezbollah accounted very well for itself in the Lebanon war. If it can tempt Israel into more of the same I don't see why it would turn out much differently (Hezbollah will still be well-dug in, will have lots of pre-placed IEDs, and will have loads of anti-tank rockets)
Agreed.
 
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