Likelihood of A 2nd Thatcher Government Post A Falklands Defeat/Stalemate?

If the conflict over the Malvinas had ended badly for the British, could Thatcher have got a second term? Could the great Mickey Foot have become prime minister even with the labour manifesto being dubbed the longest suicide note in history?
BTW The Americans AFAIK, told the Brits the conflict was unwinneable at the start!
Would such an ending for the Brits have been bad for ordinary Argentinian people because it would have prolonged the Juntas in power?

SlickWilly said:

If the conflict over the Malvinas had ended badly for the British, could Thatcher have got a second term? Could the great Mickey Foot have become prime minister even with the labour manifesto being dubbed the longest suicide note in history?
BTW The Americans AFAIK, told the Brits the conflict was unwinneable at the start!
Would such an ending for the Brits have been bad for ordinary Argentinian people because it would have prolonged the Juntas in power?

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I'm not sure that even the Great White She Elephant could have survived a bad Falklands Conflict after the British public had been all jingoed up by the press. However, this is not the same as the idea of Michael Foot and the Donkey Jacket of Power gaining control.

Apart from it would mean a slightly more potent Alliance (or maybe not by a May 1984 election), someone of moderate cabinet rank who hadn't been involved in the "War Cabinet" might be able to steer to Tories to a victory. Cometh the hour, cometh the flak jacket - Prime Minster Heseltine may have happened.

Any more offers on this one?

She would have lost.

In the short term, her monetarist policies had led to bankruptcies and unemployment. The recovery was still in the future and the crucial victory over the NUM hadn't happened yet, either. Still no progress in Ireland. A Falklands defeat would have just added to the gloom.

Unless the war was obviously mismanaged, I think that she would have actually gained popularity for putting up a fight, but not enough to compensate for the economic misery.

Labor was in terrible shape. Nobody had forgotten its surrender to the unions or the winter of discontent, and the manifesto promised more (and worse) of the same.

Therefore, I see massive gains for the Social Democrats and Scottish and Welsh nationalists, and some extra seats for the Liberals. I think a coalition government comes next (not even sure who will be in it, but Thatcher would not be acceptable as the leader). It won't last anything like a full five years.

SlickWilly said:

BTW The Americans AFAIK, told the Brits the conflict was unwinneable at the start!

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The Americans told the British a little bit of everything, it seems, regarding the Falklands. Some serious mixed signals there. They couldn't have thought the chances were too bad, though, as they did provide support. Logistics/supply assistance as I understand it, nothing that could involve American forces in combat.

hairysamarian said:

The Americans told the British a little bit of everything, it seems, regarding the Falklands. Some serious mixed signals there. They couldn't have thought the chances were too bad, though, as they did provide support. Logistics/supply assistance as I understand it, nothing that could involve American forces in combat.

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The USA support the Brits logistically, but we not commit any troops because of how badly Latin America would have reacted to the "New USA Gunboat Diplomacy"