What would need to happen to keep Stephen Harper in the Liberal Party (he left sometime before 1985) and eventually become the Liberal PM around the same time he became PM in OTL?
Challenge: Harper as a Liberal PM
- Thread starter Great Laxit
- Start date
1. The 'Quiet Revolution' in Quebec doesn't become an exclusively left-wing phenomenon, leading to the rise of a successful, secular right wing party in that province. Quebec doesn't drift towards Socialism, though separatism remains a powerful, bi-partisan movement.
2. Trudeau loses decisively in 1972. Without him, the Liberal party remains competitive throughout all of Canada, not just in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. They also begin to move back towards the centre on social and economic policy much sooner than in OTL.
3. The 'Red Tories' remain dominant within the Progressive Conservative party, ensuring that they remain a centrist party on par with OTL's Liberals (post 1984).
4. The Liberals recruit/absorb the right wing Reform supporters (or their analogues as there won't be a Reform Party ITTL) the party slowly becomes the centre-right choice for Canadian voters.
5. Jean Chretien still becomes PM in the early 90s, succeeding Joe Clark and ending roughly 20 years of (Red) Tory rule. Chretien would remain as Prime Minister for more than a decade. Riding on his coattails a young MP is elected in a Calgary area riding. His name is Stephen Harper. He quickly attract the PM's attention.
6. Chretien is still brought down by a combination of voters wanting change and scandal, though neither is as severe as OTL, and the Liberals have been able to diversify their sources of income, thanks largely to the populist support gained in Western Canada. Chretien cuts all political parties off from corporate funds without gutting the LPC's ability to fund election campaigns.
7. The PC party led by Montreal MP Jack Layton (ITTL he never moves to Toronto and thus never joins the NDP) wins a narrow majority in 2003. Now out of power, the Liberals opt for youth and talent over experiance and charisma. They choose the youngish MP from Calgary, Stephen Harper as leader in 2004. Mr. Harper is only 44.
8. Jack Layton, hoping to capitalize on an apparently insurmountable lead in the polls, call an election only three years into his mandate. it's a miscalculation that costs his party dearly. On the third Monday in June of 2006, Stephen Harper and the Liberal Party win 143 out of 308 seats in Parliament. Layton's PCs only win 99. The remainder are split between the NDP and a mix of small parties on both the left and the right. Mr. Harper is eventually sworn in as the Prime Minister of the first minority government since the days of Lester Pearson.
2. Trudeau loses decisively in 1972. Without him, the Liberal party remains competitive throughout all of Canada, not just in Ontario and Atlantic Canada. They also begin to move back towards the centre on social and economic policy much sooner than in OTL.
3. The 'Red Tories' remain dominant within the Progressive Conservative party, ensuring that they remain a centrist party on par with OTL's Liberals (post 1984).
4. The Liberals recruit/absorb the right wing Reform supporters (or their analogues as there won't be a Reform Party ITTL) the party slowly becomes the centre-right choice for Canadian voters.
5. Jean Chretien still becomes PM in the early 90s, succeeding Joe Clark and ending roughly 20 years of (Red) Tory rule. Chretien would remain as Prime Minister for more than a decade. Riding on his coattails a young MP is elected in a Calgary area riding. His name is Stephen Harper. He quickly attract the PM's attention.
6. Chretien is still brought down by a combination of voters wanting change and scandal, though neither is as severe as OTL, and the Liberals have been able to diversify their sources of income, thanks largely to the populist support gained in Western Canada. Chretien cuts all political parties off from corporate funds without gutting the LPC's ability to fund election campaigns.
7. The PC party led by Montreal MP Jack Layton (ITTL he never moves to Toronto and thus never joins the NDP) wins a narrow majority in 2003. Now out of power, the Liberals opt for youth and talent over experiance and charisma. They choose the youngish MP from Calgary, Stephen Harper as leader in 2004. Mr. Harper is only 44.
8. Jack Layton, hoping to capitalize on an apparently insurmountable lead in the polls, call an election only three years into his mandate. it's a miscalculation that costs his party dearly. On the third Monday in June of 2006, Stephen Harper and the Liberal Party win 143 out of 308 seats in Parliament. Layton's PCs only win 99. The remainder are split between the NDP and a mix of small parties on both the left and the right. Mr. Harper is eventually sworn in as the Prime Minister of the first minority government since the days of Lester Pearson.
Here's a theory. Pierre Trudeau is killed during his trip to China in the 1940s. At the 1968 Liberal Party Convention, there are three major candidates. Finance Minister Mitchell Sharp represents the party's left wing and is the early frontrunner. However, the February 19th defeat of his tax bill spells doom for his campaign. To the right is Robert Winters, an opponent of Lester Pearson's more social democratic policies. In the middle is Paul Hellyer who is to the right of Trudeau but still very charismatic. He prevails on the fourth ballot. Hellyer wins the 1968 elections and is returned to power in 1972. As Prime Minister, he leads the Liberals down a more nationalist path, drawing the ire of many in Quebec but drawing support from the West.
In the 1979 Elections, Joe Clark and the PC's come to power. They don't botch things so badly, and remain in power until 1988. That year Jean Chretien, a nationalist but a Quebec, is elected. In 1993 he is defeated by Jean Chretien of the Liberals who remains in power until 2004. That year Jack Layton leads the PC back to power, but in 2006 is defeated by the Hellyer Liberal Stephen Harper who forms a minority government.
In the 1979 Elections, Joe Clark and the PC's come to power. They don't botch things so badly, and remain in power until 1988. That year Jean Chretien, a nationalist but a Quebec, is elected. In 1993 he is defeated by Jean Chretien of the Liberals who remains in power until 2004. That year Jack Layton leads the PC back to power, but in 2006 is defeated by the Hellyer Liberal Stephen Harper who forms a minority government.
I like how you gave him a Minority in TTL too.
Well, I only had the Liberals out of power for three years, so of course there would be some reluctance to vote them right back in. However, if ATL's Harper is anything like ours, he'll have his majority within 18 months.
Here's a list of PMs for the Liberal PM Stephen Harper world:
1968-1972 Pierre Trudeau (Liberal)
1972-1981 Robert Stanfield (Progressive Conservative)
1981-1991 Joseph 'Joe' Clark (Progressive Conservative)
1991-2003 Jean Chretien (Liberal)
2003-2006 John G. 'Jack' Layton (Progressive Conservative)
2006- INC Stephen Harper (Liberal)
And here's a list of leaders of the major political parties of Canada:
Liberal:
1968-1973 Pierre Trudeau
1973-1987 John N. Turner
1987-2003 Jean Chretien
2003- INC Stephen Harper
Progressive Conservative:
1968-1981 Robert Stanfield
1981-1993 Joe Clark
1993-2001 Lucien Bouchard
2001-2007 John G. 'Jack' Layton
2007- INC Daniel 'Danny' Williams
New Democratic Party
1961-1971 Thomas 'Tommy' Douglas
1971-1983 David Lewis
1983-1994 John Edward 'Ed' Broadbent
1994-2000 David 'Dave' Barrett
2000- INC William 'Bill' Blakie
Things that don't happen ITTL:
National Energy Program
Charter of Rights and Freedoms
1980 Quebec Sovereignty Referendum
1988 Calgary Winter Olympics
Meech Lake Accord
Charlottetwon Accord & Referendum
1995 Quebec Sovereignty Referendum
Adscam
1995 'Turbot War'
2010 Vancouver Winter Olympics
Abolition of Capital Punishment
Things that go differently:
1976 Montreal Summer Olympics
The '70s in general
Reform/Patriation of the BNA Act
1979 Iran Hostage Crisis
1991 Gulf War
All peacekeeping missions post-1972
Micheal J. Fox's career.
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Good choices, but I cannot see Jack Layton leading the Progressive Conservatives, and I still think Mulroney would be a better PC PM than Layton. (No argument on Stanfield, though, and we both know why.) I don't think you can avoid a Reform Party of some sort in any case, but you can have it be stuck in irrelevancy.
Trudeau wouldn't go down that easily, especially as he was still immensely popular among the Liberal Party at the time. He sure as hell isn't going down to one of his proteges in 1973. Realistically, Trudeau will be leading the Liberals into the early 1980s, but with Stanfield and the turbulent 70s He can make the same comment Harper does IOTL - competency or flash, your call. Turner might work for the 80s. Chretien and Harper no problem.
Stanfield and Clark are easy to see. Bouchard would have to have separatism nipped in the bud - tough call. If you want a Quebec PC for leader, Jean Charest is probably a better choice than Bouchard. Still not seeing Layton. Danny Williams would be a very good PC leader.
Lewis died in 1981 from cancer, so he isn't gonna be there in 1983. Better option would be to have Broadbent take over 1977ish and run until after the 1997 elections. The choices are pretty sound, however.
Not a bad idea in theory but badly implemented, in part because Trudeau didn't give a shit about the country west of Manitoba. Stanfield is more farsighted than that, but an NEP program to try to reduce oil prices is unavoidable, particularly with the 1973 energy crisis and stagflation, and the similar bout in 1981-82.
This is idiotic. Why would one be against this?
Plausible. Though not easy unless you've somehow killed off Rene Levesque.
Possible again, but the question of why also comes up here.
Can see these, particularly if you can massively reduce the impact of Quebec separatism.
The turbot war was another case where something had to be done. Unless you can make sure the Europeans stay the hell out of our waters earlier, this situation is bound to happen eventually.
Again, why? It was a roaring success.
See above. I am only in favor of capital punishment if guilt is undeniable. Not "beyond a reasonable doubt", none, period. And that's extremely difficult to prove in every case except for guys like Paul Bernardo and Russell Williams. I don't see much point here.
Probably a good thing, on both fronts.
What needs to be changed here?
How is a changed Canadian government going to change matters here? I can see more Canuck forces against Iraq, but the Hostage Crisis was never our fight and we only got caught in it because a Canadian diplomat did an honorable thing and helped some US diplomats get away from danger.
Again, how?
archaeogeek
Banned
It was a centrist movement and the first shots were fired by Paul Sauve's short-lived administration after Duplessis kicked the bucket.
Trudeau didn't lose Quebec, Chretien did. The liberals were never competitive in the west.
Agreed for once
About as likely as absorbing the bloc's ex-tories: iow, no.
Again, the problem wasn't Trudeau, but Chretien. Also Chretien is probably the worst pick: he can and will torpedo his successor, no matter who it is.
Harper has neither experience nor charisma at 44.
Layton's dad was a Tory MP and Cabinet Minister in Mulroney's government. If the 'Red Tories' remain the dominant faction within the party, he could very well follow in his father's footsteps and thus remain a Tory.
I'm assuming that Trudeau simply leaves in a huff after having been decisively rejected by Canadian voters in the 1972 election. IIRC Turner and Trudeau had already begun to fight by this time, so even though he's Trudeau's protege, Turner could well succeed Trudeau as Liberal leader.
Here, separatism isn't nearly the force it was IOTL (no 1980 referendum and weaker PQ), so Bouchard being a politician who uses his position to advance Quebec's interests within Confederation isn't that unreasonable.
I took some liberties using butterflies here. Have the cancer hold off for a few years, and the reason the NDP needs a new leader in '83 is because Lewis had a heart attack instead.
Any alternative will be milder, will have a different name, and will be done in collaboration with the oil producing provinces. It probably would involve tweaking the equalization system and nothing more.
It was Trudeau baby, and Trudeau hasn't been in office for ten years by this point. It was also part and parcel with patriation of the Constitution, and that happens later and/or differently, so it's also been butterflied.
Would sidelining him do? Separatism and the PQ are both much weaker ITTL, so...
Butterflies. I'm seeing it as the 1992 Ottawa/Hull Winter Olympics instead. Different City wins the bid, and Canada still gets the games. Eventually.
Obviously, one follows from the other.
But not in 1995 and not over turbot.
Butterflies. That year is Calgary's year...
The courts still uphold it a legal, like OTL, but the parliamentary vote that abolished it never happens. If Bernardo and Williams aren't seriously affected by butterflies, then both will eventually hang for their crimes.
That's what i thought. It might help if a butterfly were to land Montreal's corrupt mayor in jail too.
It was Trudeau's idea after the 1980 sovereignty referendum. As Trudeau is gone, and the referendum never happened, it is delayed and will proceed quite differently. I see it happening instead of Meech Lake in 1990.
Because we have someone different as ambassador to Iran in 1979. He may or may not have the brass balls that the OTL one had, and he will make different decisions regardless. The moment of glory could instead be an act of cowardice (he doesn't help the Americans) or even a complete disaster. (Our guy gets caught helping the yanks and winds up getting himself and a good chunk of the embassy staff killed.)
Different forces are sent to some, we don't participate in others, we commit a larger force than OTL in the rest, and for all of them we usually have better equipment than OTL. So in every case they proceed differently, for good or ill.
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