What would the borders of a US Quebec be?

For a timeline restart I'm working on, what do you all think would be a plausible and reasonable border for a US state of Quebec if they had joined the US Revolution? There was a large amount of territory under the name 'Canada' up there, and it would likely get split up somewhere to cover a majority of the French-speaking population of that time.

I asked the author of 'How the States got their Shapes' and that was pretty much his response, but I don't know the extend of the French-speaking population up there.

Thanks for all your help!

I used to assume a border which would probably be wrong; but I'd revise it thus

- It would include Labrador, but the Abitibi and Nouveau-Quebec/Nunavik areas would not be part of it.
- It would probably include part of, but not all its ontario claims, following the same line as its OTL southern border: roughly, this means Ottawa and Sudbury in, Toronto and Windsor out. Basically, Eastern Ontario at its smallest extent, Northeastern Ontario, but not the districts of Cochrane, Timiskaming
- The peninsula would receive the same treatment as the other contested areas; I learned last week that NY actually claimed it.
- Finally, Maine would get the border counties of Quebec, the area known today as Beauce, more or less.

Assuming a rough division of today's divisions of the area
- A state of Quebec (I suspect it would be renamed Canada) - Area would be about 960,000-1,000,000ish square km, depending on the exact division of Ontario and the west and where Maine's final border are. Thunder Bay would probably be contested: kudos if you manage to turn it into a state (bonus points for an Ojibwe majority), but I don't think it could handle the density - population would be about 9-9.5 million. It may end up being treated like Mass+Maine or North Carolina and Tennessee, even though this part of the area has no conflicting claims as far as I could tell, and population wise, this particular region wouldn't hit the 80,000 rule of thumb before the 1840s, maybe even the 1860s.
- A state of Ontario, Erie or Huron depending on which lake gets picked. Population would be 10.5-11 million, area would be a bit less than New York but not significantly so. These areas are also largely devoid of French Ontarians IOTL.
- The rest of the north would be huge, but would also have fairly low immigration; I suspect it would be added to Manitoba for some (probably named Assiniboia), and turned into its own "Western Alaska" for the rest. Probably called Timiskaming, population about half a million. It would be over a million square km.
- Whatever happens to the prairies, well, I had a map, but I admit that I based it off Canadian terriroty borders from the 1800s, which IIRC were not quite set at that point. The area which is included in the northern prairies is about half a million km2 (including Thunder Bay) and has a population of a quarter million people today.

Manitoulin would probably be contested between everyone who has access to Lake Huron. I'm not sure if it was in the NY claim area; if yes, it goes to Ontario, if no, it has strong chances of going to Quebec or whatever gets formed from the lands north of the NY Ontario claim zone.

I could also see the units being cut smaller, but the problem with cutting Quebec down is the same problem there would be with cutting Alaska down and the same problem you had with the Jefferson map of the Midwest: yes, geographically they would be equal in size, but agriculturally/supporting capacity wise, they would be condemned to remain minor states - it's not impossible to live with it, obviously, New England manages, but yeah. One reason I could see Quebec split in two would be a Tennessee situation, but yeah. Of the 9.5 million I posited, only about 1.5-2 would be on the "Ontario" side.

I think my view is pretty similar to archaeogeek's...

I think the proclamation line of 1763 would form the basis of any Canadian state in the late 1770s. As far as I know, this basically covers the area of francophone settlement.

I'm not sure about Labrador but I doubt the British would give it up to easily so...

Assuming that the British don't just hand over the Rupert's Land claims and Labrador, I think this would translate to the St. Lawrence watershed from Montreal to about Anticosti and all of the Ottawa River Watershed. I think the interesting question is how many francophone dominated states do you get...one huge one (in land, anyway) or does it break into a couple smaller ones centred on Montreal and Quebec over time.

All of the rest of Quebec's claims west of the Ottawa river watershed and south of Rupert's Land would end up as a territory. The north shore of the Great Lakes (Sudbury and Sault Ste. Marie) might possibly become a state in the late nineteenth century.

The peninsular area (*Windsor to * Kingston) would probably become a state instate about 1820 or so, just because it's more accessible for settlement than Michigan is.

My two cents...

David

a US state of Quebec if they had joined the US Revolution?

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This Assumes that joining the Revolution is the same as joining the US.
My opinion is that Quebec would not ratify the Consitution in 1788.
As such It's borders with the US would be the Territory it controlled in 1789.

As for Quebec itself, would this work?



I know it's rough and all, but it kind of covers Lower Canada, and the easternmost section could become 'Labrador Territory.' If Rupert's land remains British after the revolution, this might be the result. If the Americans then take Rupert's Land later, through purchase or elsewise, I could see Quebec extending northward to the Hudson possibly. I think following the Ottawa river might also make sense here, then a straight eastward line, meeting a northward line from Quebec City. How about this?

JJohnson said:

As for Quebec itself, would this work?

I know it's rough and all, but it kind of covers Lower Canada, and the easternmost section could become 'Labrador Territory.' If Rupert's land remains British after the revolution, this might be the result. If the Americans then take Rupert's Land later, through purchase or elsewise, I could see Quebec extending northward to the Hudson possibly. I think following the Ottawa river might also make sense here, then a straight eastward line, meeting a northward line from Quebec City. How about this?

Click to expand...

The Ontario-Quebec border is a 1797 creation. That's my main problem with people treating it as an immutable fact of life. Also, no, this wouldn't globally because it encompasses Maine claims, and you put Montreal and Quebec in the same state . The province of Quebec at the time included Labrador.

DJB001 said:

I think my view is pretty similar to archaeogeek's...

I think the proclamation line of 1763 would form the basis of any Canadian state in the late 1770s. As far as I know, this basically covers the area of francophone settlement.

I'm not sure about Labrador but I doubt the British would give it up to easily so...

Assuming that the British don't just hand over the Rupert's Land claims and Labrador, I think this would translate to the St. Lawrence watershed from Montreal to about Anticosti and all of the Ottawa River Watershed. I think the interesting question is how many francophone dominated states do you get...one huge one (in land, anyway) or does it break into a couple smaller ones centred on Montreal and Quebec over time.

All of the rest of Quebec's claims west of the Ottawa river watershed and south of Rupert's Land would end up as a territory. The north shore of the Great Lakes (Sudbury and Sault Ste. Marie) might possibly become a state in the late nineteenth century.

The peninsular area (*Windsor to * Kingston) would probably become a state instate about 1820 or so, just because it's more accessible for settlement than Michigan is.

My two cents...

David

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Actually, this might end up being three french states if you split between states around Sudbury, Montreal-Ottawa and Quebec-maybe Trois-Rivieres.

I could see the OTL Eastern Townships/Bois-Francs/Gaspesie becoming two standalone territories.

One problem I could see, however, is basically one of representation; a situation where the province of Quebec gets split a lot on account of it being too large territorially would probably lead to howls in the deep south (they may be fielding less troops than the Canadiens, they're still probably seen as more important), since you'd get 2 french states and potentially 2 additional ones over time (the Metis are already there, and the parts of Ontario I've split from the peninsula vary from a slight to a solid Franco-Ontarian majority today), with the population of the Carolinas.

Regardless of the initial area of Quebec after joining the Continental Congress, I suspect that the borders will be adjusted after the war. Virginia, Pennsylvania, and other states had claims across the Appalachian Mountains, and Congress asked them to cede those claims so the territory could be administered and new states formed out of them. The situation with Quebec will likely be similar and much of its claims separated into a territory. If Quebec has thrown in with the other colonies, I think some sort of compromise will be sought rather than them being intransigent.

Quebec will keep the choicest parts where French settlers are dominant along with much of the eastern and northern territory (which are not kept by Britain, the peace treaty may still give them Labrador) not suitable for high populations on their own. Much of the area west will be incorporated into a new territory, and new states formed there. In other words, I don't think Quebec (whether called that or Canada) will get Thunder Bay. They may not even get Ottawa.

Although there is a chance that some of the future new states in that area will be comprised of predominantly French speaking people.

it would be pretty much how it is now. The problem is that les Canadiens were never very numerous. Yankee patriots instead of loyalists would settle OTL Ontario, which would probably end up being a part of New York.

Blackfox5 said:

Regardless of the initial area of Quebec after joining the Continental Congress, I suspect that the borders will be adjusted after the war. Virginia, Pennsylvania, and other states had claims across the Appalachian Mountains, and Congress asked them to cede those claims so the territory could be administered and new states formed out of them. The situation with Quebec will likely be similar and much of its claims separated into a territory. If Quebec has thrown in with the other colonies, I think some sort of compromise will be sought rather than them being intransigent.

Quebec will keep the choicest parts where French settlers are dominant along with much of the eastern and northern territory (which are not kept by Britain, the peace treaty may still give them Labrador) not suitable for high populations on their own. Much of the area west will be incorporated into a new territory, and new states formed there. In other words, I don't think Quebec (whether called that or Canada) will get Thunder Bay. They may not even get Ottawa.

Although there is a chance that some of the future new states in that area will be comprised of predominantly French speaking people.

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Unfortunately those are the defined borders of the political entity that is Quebec in 1774. If it joins the AR and the colonies to the south...it is on that understanding by the the Americans to the south. Otherwise there is absolutely no interest in joining said revolution as anything other than co-belligerent. Any territory it may give up will be on terms that it may negotiate with the Federal government ( read massive financial compensation) and limited to only those territories it wants to give up. Almost certainly they will want to keep lands north of the lakes for their own expansion west and even those terr. south of it historically associated with it under the previous French regime as the Pays d'en Haut (I'd say Michigan...UP and LP wouldn't be out of the question at start because they both lie within the Great lakes basin that is in the natural Hinterland of the St. Lawrence River.

Unless you start from there from the get go you cannot have any rational discussion. The political will was never there of course but I presume we have to assume at some point that that is overcome..

Btw, I suspect that for those smaller states, and those without claims or limited claims It would be a welcome position.

My expectation is that whatever PoD pushes Canada to the Patriot side also almost surely butterflies out the Quebec Act as we know it, so Quebec stays in its 1773 borders. I do expect that the USA would inevitably end up with Labrador and Rupert's Land (nut not necessarily NFL) sooner or later, by conquest or purchase, they are untenable for the British Empire in the long term with a US control of the St. Lawrence-Great Lakes waterway. As such, I do expect that southern Ontario, and later northern Ontario and Acadia/NB would become separate states with a French majority, and the state border with Quebec would be more or less as OTL. The rest of the Canadian states but Nova Scotia would become heavily mixed states, languagewise.

From the 1774 borders, I came up with this alternative:



It's a rough map (sorry!), but it shows a possible division of the territory disregarding the OTL Ottawa river border, and captures a majority of the French-speaking population in one territory (Quebec), with the left-hand two southern territories possibly joining as French plurality states, and the right hand joining as one or two states later.

For the sake of identification:
-Toronto is in "Franklin" territory
-Quebec City is in Quebec state
-Sudbury is in "Ottawa" Territory (a northern Indian territory)
-Chapleau is in "Ontario" territory
-the upper and lower eastern bits are "East Quebec" territory, which may or may not be one state, or be added to another state at a later point.

JJohnson said:

From the 1774 borders, I came up with this alternative:

It's a rough map (sorry!), but it shows a possible division of the territory disregarding the OTL Ottawa river border, and captures a majority of the French-speaking population in one territory (Quebec), with the left-hand two southern territories possibly joining as French plurality states, and the right hand joining as one or two states later.

Click to expand...

Maybe it's the hour less sleep I've had (GMT > BST) but your map shows 6 territories. Could you label them for ease of reading.

Isn't Michigan part of the 1774 boundary? Why is that not included in any territory?

The Professor said:

Maybe it's the hour less sleep I've had (GMT > BST) but your map shows 6 territories. Could you label them for ease of reading.

Isn't Michigan part of the 1774 boundary? Why is that not included in any territory?

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Because Michigan is destined to be its own state in the vast majority of all alternate TLs.

JJohnson said:

As for Quebec itself, would this work?


I know it's rough and all, but it kind of covers Lower Canada, and the easternmost section could become 'Labrador Territory.' If Rupert's land remains British after the revolution, this might be the result. If the Americans then take Rupert's Land later, through purchase or elsewise, I could see Quebec extending northward to the Hudson possibly. I think following the Ottawa river might also make sense here, then a straight eastward line, meeting a northward line from Quebec City. How about this?

Click to expand...

It looks alright.........certainly more logical than the next one, to be honest.

Ahhh, the Maine border... Anyways, keep in mind how the British gave the Midwest to Quebec for administrative purposes and kept everyone else east of the Appalachians.

AuroraBorealis said:

Unfortunately those are the defined borders of the political entity that is Quebec in 1774. If it joins the AR and the colonies to the south...it is on that understanding by the the Americans to the south. Otherwise there is absolutely no interest in joining said revolution as anything other than co-belligerent. Any territory it may give up will be on terms that it may negotiate with the Federal government ( read massive financial compensation) and limited to only those territories it wants to give up. Almost certainly they will want to keep lands north of the lakes for their own expansion west and even those terr. south of it historically associated with it under the previous French regime as the Pays d'en Haut (I'd say Michigan...UP and LP wouldn't be out of the question at start because they both lie within the Great lakes basin that is in the natural Hinterland of the St. Lawrence River.

Unless you start from there from the get go you cannot have any rational discussion.

Click to expand...

What happens when most of the land in western Quebec is settled by Anglophones? Do the French Quebecois allow Anglophones to eventually control the entire state? Or will one group or the other eventually agitate that it's broken up into separate, smaller states/territories based on language?

If the intent of the Francophones is to keep control over its own destiny, I don't see them retaining a lot of those claims long term. Demographics will eventually compel them to surrender some of that claim despite what the original Francophones may have hoped for. The population in the English colonies will increase faster than that in the Francophone areas. As people move out west, some of them will settle in Quebec, however you define it. I am pretty confident that eventually those settlers will outnumber any Francophones that move out west. It may take a while, but it will happen. Maybe it leads to some sort of constitutional crisis; that's possible.

This map would be the rough borders of the new US:



So, the US in this version would be getting Quebec, Nova Scotia, St John's Island, and the rest of OTL territory it originally got. I saw a settlement graphic showing Montreal was pretty much the western extent of francophone settlement, so if the Thirteen give up their western claims, likely Quebec would give up their claims west of Montreal also to make way for new states. If this is the case, the southern states would also push for other southern states to balance things out eventually, perhaps leading to a further expansionist policy.

The territory for Quebec I did for the second graphic gives Quebec around 50,000 to 54,000 mi2, around the same amount for New York also. The actual division of the other territories might be a little odd, so we can certainly change those out.