WI Martin Luther assassinated

Bear in mind that Luther was doing nothing wrong when he posted his 95 Theses. Yes he was angry, and yes now it looks like a radical action, but hammering a piece of parchment with a list of doctrinal queries was in his era not the first step in declaring a schism but was a legitimate, and in fact THE established, way of asking for a scholarly debate. He was, in other words, challenging any who opposed his views to a public argument. What's more, monks coming up with reinterpretations of doctrine wasn't unusual in this era - in fact it was pretty much what scholarly debate existed on, and scholarly debate was not just rampant, it was seen as part of a monk's duties. If Luther was assassinated just for that, it would be treated like a murder of an innocent, but really there was no reason even the most psychopathic, trigger-happy defender of Catholicism would want to kill him at that point.
 
Protestantism doesn't depend on Luther. He, Calvin and the Church of England are independent series of events, derailing one doesn't derail the others. Besides, Luther's points were Hussite doctrine down the line...it's hardly a stretch to think some other monk would look at the Hussite Church in Bohemia, look over to the Catholic Church thoughtfully and go "you know, they seem to have some good ideas...".

As to what happens, well, a lot depends on who picks up those ideas next, when, and where. I could guess that with the religious conflicts in the HRE on hold for a few years, though, the HRE has another go at the Turks. Hopefully that will soak up a fair bit of Spanish gold, otherwise the Spanish economy is going to implode messily ahead of schedule.
 
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