Canadian PM Joe Clark, Act II

Two scenarios...

Scenario A: Mulroney doesn't run in 1983, or is killed in a plane accident while president of IOC. Clark retains the leadership and wins the 1984 election, which given OTL events is a default Tory win.

Scenario B: Clark succeeds Mulroney in 1993, or in a Meech-ratified ATL 1991 (his planned exit date). In his memoirs Mulroney said that he seriously considered the idea of backing the now-seasoned Clark, who had been in External Affairs for seven years, done a good job, though in the 1993 scenario burdened with the Charlottetown baggage plus everything else from OTL.

So, in either of these scenarios, how does Clark perform? I see him being a bit more serious about the deficit than Mulroney, not reopening the Constitution and not being as great an international presence, with appropriate consequences to personal relationships with other HoGs than Mulroney. 1993 might see a Liberal or PC minority, for the polls were decent for the PCs until mid-September when the bottom fell out.

Well with scenario A, I'm not sure Clark could've gotten the same kind of total victory Mulroney got. Turner was a poor candidate, but the NDP's Ed Broadbent might've capitalized with two weaker candidates and made significant gains enough to make the Liberals a third party and certainly decrease Clark's victory total.

For B, I don't think that Mulroney would've endorsed Clark to succeed him. The two never truly got along.

But if Clark did become PM again, I think his second term will certainly have gone better than the first. He wouldn't be dealing with the clever Trudeau and he would have a majority and not have to rely on a loose coalition like he had to in 1979-1980.

He definitely could've if you remove his public musing about a two-party PC/NDP nation which drove undecided Liberals back to Turner and gave him the 10-seat plurality. Clark would not do as well in Quebec, though he did have a lot of grassroots strength there in '83 IOTL Mulroney had his personal network and was a de facto French Canadian in Quebecois' eyes, as Lysiane Gagnon wrote many years later. Clark doesn't have that.

I don't think they were close but they worked well together for nearly a decade, because Mulroney was a gracious winner and Clark was a gracious loser, as both men wrote. Depends who runs. Campbell would've run unopposed and scared all the heavyweights (Maz, MacDougall, Wilson, Epp) out of running, Mulroney put Charest up initially as a token challenger and didn't expect him to do so well. Clark wouldn't duck and run and Campbell might not run in that scenario. If the PCs win in 1993, it will be like Harper in 2006: a relatively small plurality of no more than 30 seats over the Liberals, but divided opposition parties ensure that they can hang on until 1995/6. Effects on the referendum would be interesting without the hated Chretien at the helm, and there would be another election before 1996 was out, maybe even in 1995. I don't know whether Chretien would stick around after losing.

Joe Clark lacked something that Mulroney had - Charisma, as you pointed out that Mulroney was popular amongst Quebecers, and his performance in Quebec was what helped him keep power for as long as he did. Clark would face the problem of the right's division by 1988 - the Reform Party was irrelevant in 1984 but was getting attention by 1988, and by 1993 the Reformers had become the Conservative Party's representatives west of Manitoba.

Scenario A is the only possible one - Clark isn't gonna take the helm with Mulroney losing, and there is a reason why everyone stayed out of the 1993 PC leadership race, because the Conservatives were going to be beaten badly and they all knew it, which means Option B is not going to happen. As for a minority in 1993, its possible, but it requires either the Conservatives doing far, far better, the Reform Party getting more a hold or the NDP not going down as hard as they did post-Broadbent. There are a few options there, but I really cannot see in the midst of a very poor economy and major government finance problems that the Conservatives would have any hope in hell of winning in 1993.

In 1988 Reform wasn't getting much attention, all focus was on the FTA and the economy was roaring, though the deficit was spiralling out of control. Mulroney makes no apologies for not slamming down the spending axe on the entitlement programs in his memoirs, and I don't see Clark willing to do that either- the only way (along with some tax increases) to return to black within a decade.

1993: you can use the Meech-ratified scenario, though that releases a million butterflies including no Bloc, which means the PCs and Liberals split Quebec. Campbell (or Charest) could have attended the G8, made less gaffes and the election call could be delayed until later October, with a budget and Throne Speech, plus a coherent legislative agenda. For the first 10 days the PCs were tied or ahead, as late as Sept. 28 they were only 6 points behind (remember 1984, 1988, 2006 for massive Tory swings in mid-campaign) before they imploded in October. Probably no more than 125 seats max though.