Let's say negotiations fail and Lougheed embargoes oil to the rest of Canada into 1981. How long will it last before Trudeau blinks, or reverses his entire economic policy to allow foreign investment? Does it go to the Supreme Court?
Let the Eastern Bastards Freeze in the Dark: Lougheed shuts off oil in 1980
- Thread starter RogueBeaver
- Start date
Hmmm, an interesting notion.
Please read my comments through the lens that I write form nothing more than hazy remembrances of a 10year old watching CBC news and a lot of day dreaming.
When the looong political/public drama finally results in the pipelines being shut off, I think you'd see a response similar to that of the FLQ Crisis.
The reaction of the federal government would include RCMP intelligence and public safety branches mobilized, CAF attempts to take over oil facilities and open safe passageways on the Transcanada for tankers. All of this would be met by resistance, passive at first. The provincial leadership would have fan public opinion to an inferno, and the armed resistance, secretly organized, would include some key defections from the CAF with heavy arms, orchestrated by Stanley Waters, and outraged private Albertans as militias.
Ultimately a stalemate is reached with no bloodshed. After a few cold months, the Feds attempt to push forward. Shots ring out at one barricade, and the the gloves come off. CAF units, loyal and break-away, are reluctant to escalate, but the fired up militia and private groups advance on Federal positions. Few are successful, but many are wounded and killed. Things have now gone too far.
Sabotage of infrastructure (pipelines, transmission lines public buildings, federal officials) would nullify any success the Feds have when they can bring overwhelming force to bear. No oil moves east and everyone is pissed.
St Peter has negotiated/strong armed an secret alliance with BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, but neither SK nor MB would not be able to offer much in the way of help, representing more of a buffer of space to the might available in Eastern Canada. MB could redirect Hydro exports southward, and SK would see this as an opportunity to release their agri-business from the confines of the Wheat Board.
Quebec and Ontario are staunchly opposed to Loughheed's actions, but separatists in in Quebec see an oppertunity. Maritimers openly support the Western policies but begrudge the affect on their already stagnant economies.
The US, still suffering from the oil shortage, expresses support for the break-away freedom loving and much oppressed Western Alliance in return for guarantees of of energy deliveries. The US does not provide much in the way of material support until things get out of hand. Federal convoys being routed through the US are stopped at the border, forcing them through the long prairie expanses.
The CAF would be torn. Sworn to support the Canadian government, some would be swayed. The majority, of units are based in Ontario or Quebec. The personnel is also largely from central Canada with strong Maritime representation. The Western alliance would make its appeal to based on the perceived inability of the Federal government to deal with regional issues. The senior leadership at this time is heavily salted with Ontario/Quebecois. Organization would be complicated if the flash-point coincided with activities in support of redeployment of units to Germany or NATO exercises. The majority of units stay loyal, with the notable exception of those based in Alberta and Manitoba. In these units, Easterners openly opposed to the Alberta actions are replaced by the reserve and militia counterparts. The CAF leadership has its hands full securing the major bases and large weapons systems.
Britain is aghast, Europe generally amused, while several smaller countries siezing opportunities to deal with the Western Alliance. Germany hastily withdraws its training units from CFB Shilo before they are caught up, and their equipment falls into pro-Western hands. The USSR sees this an the unraveling of NATO, and a possible threat (everything is a threat to USSR in this period). If the POD happens late enough, the USSR may take a chance and extend their Afghanistan operation right through Pakistan. China waits patiently, but holds exercises off Taiwan.
Please read my comments through the lens that I write form nothing more than hazy remembrances of a 10year old watching CBC news and a lot of day dreaming.
When the looong political/public drama finally results in the pipelines being shut off, I think you'd see a response similar to that of the FLQ Crisis.
The reaction of the federal government would include RCMP intelligence and public safety branches mobilized, CAF attempts to take over oil facilities and open safe passageways on the Transcanada for tankers. All of this would be met by resistance, passive at first. The provincial leadership would have fan public opinion to an inferno, and the armed resistance, secretly organized, would include some key defections from the CAF with heavy arms, orchestrated by Stanley Waters, and outraged private Albertans as militias.
Ultimately a stalemate is reached with no bloodshed. After a few cold months, the Feds attempt to push forward. Shots ring out at one barricade, and the the gloves come off. CAF units, loyal and break-away, are reluctant to escalate, but the fired up militia and private groups advance on Federal positions. Few are successful, but many are wounded and killed. Things have now gone too far.
Sabotage of infrastructure (pipelines, transmission lines public buildings, federal officials) would nullify any success the Feds have when they can bring overwhelming force to bear. No oil moves east and everyone is pissed.
St Peter has negotiated/strong armed an secret alliance with BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, but neither SK nor MB would not be able to offer much in the way of help, representing more of a buffer of space to the might available in Eastern Canada. MB could redirect Hydro exports southward, and SK would see this as an opportunity to release their agri-business from the confines of the Wheat Board.
Quebec and Ontario are staunchly opposed to Loughheed's actions, but separatists in in Quebec see an oppertunity. Maritimers openly support the Western policies but begrudge the affect on their already stagnant economies.
The US, still suffering from the oil shortage, expresses support for the break-away freedom loving and much oppressed Western Alliance in return for guarantees of of energy deliveries. The US does not provide much in the way of material support until things get out of hand. Federal convoys being routed through the US are stopped at the border, forcing them through the long prairie expanses.
The CAF would be torn. Sworn to support the Canadian government, some would be swayed. The majority, of units are based in Ontario or Quebec. The personnel is also largely from central Canada with strong Maritime representation. The Western alliance would make its appeal to based on the perceived inability of the Federal government to deal with regional issues. The senior leadership at this time is heavily salted with Ontario/Quebecois. Organization would be complicated if the flash-point coincided with activities in support of redeployment of units to Germany or NATO exercises. The majority of units stay loyal, with the notable exception of those based in Alberta and Manitoba. In these units, Easterners openly opposed to the Alberta actions are replaced by the reserve and militia counterparts. The CAF leadership has its hands full securing the major bases and large weapons systems.
Britain is aghast, Europe generally amused, while several smaller countries siezing opportunities to deal with the Western Alliance. Germany hastily withdraws its training units from CFB Shilo before they are caught up, and their equipment falls into pro-Western hands. The USSR sees this an the unraveling of NATO, and a possible threat (everything is a threat to USSR in this period). If the POD happens late enough, the USSR may take a chance and extend their Afghanistan operation right through Pakistan. China waits patiently, but holds exercises off Taiwan.
I don't want an ASB scenario, (a civil war in Canada over energy policy? ) just to see if Lougheed could've gotten a better deal. Namely completely scrapping a program that would warm Chavez's heart in its socialism.
) just to see if Lougheed could've gotten a better deal. Namely completely scrapping a program that would warm Chavez's heart in its socialism.Pretty far fetched scenario
BC isn't going to be joining any of this, with the possible exception of the Peace country. From our perspective, Alberta are the eastern bastards. And BC doesn't follow Prairie chickens in anything if we can help it.
There is no such thing as a unified western Canada that would be willing to break up the country over this.
BC isn't going to be joining any of this, with the possible exception of the Peace country. From our perspective, Alberta are the eastern bastards. And BC doesn't follow Prairie chickens in anything if we can help it.
There is no such thing as a unified western Canada that would be willing to break up the country over this.
Ignoring the ASB scenario, can we discuss more realistic options? Like whether Lougheed could have secured the NEP's abolition?
I think this scenario plays into Trudeaus hands politically and would entrench the NEP at least in the short term. Remember he only paid lip service to the West understanding that he did not need a single seat west of the lakehead to win a majority plus he was arrogant to the point of hubris.
Assuming all negotiations break down and both sides become intransigent then I see the following. Trudeau makes outraged speaches castigating Alberta as greedy and callous. He would place emphasis on the economic problems this would cause central Canada and rely on the CBC to beat the drum against Alberta. Any oposition to the NEP would be categorized as greedy indiference to the plight of working class Ontarians and Quebecers just trying to survive the winter. Trudeau probably rides this to another majority or two depending upon how bitter it gets and certainly he introduces additional legislation to strengthen and compliment the NEP.
This actually puts the PC's in a bigger bind than the Grits. The Liberals would be quick to tie the Tories to Alberta and attempt to play Lougheeds position as Tory policy. If they protest too much they lose their base, if they don't protest then they alienate voters in central Canada. Might lead to an ealier version of Reform splintering the Tories.
At this point, in a touch of exquisite irony, the Supreme Court could cement Trudeaus victory by striking down the NEP, cooling the west while allowing Trudeau to claim that he tried his best but the activist Supreme Court thwarted the will of parliament.
Assuming all negotiations break down and both sides become intransigent then I see the following. Trudeau makes outraged speaches castigating Alberta as greedy and callous. He would place emphasis on the economic problems this would cause central Canada and rely on the CBC to beat the drum against Alberta. Any oposition to the NEP would be categorized as greedy indiference to the plight of working class Ontarians and Quebecers just trying to survive the winter. Trudeau probably rides this to another majority or two depending upon how bitter it gets and certainly he introduces additional legislation to strengthen and compliment the NEP.
This actually puts the PC's in a bigger bind than the Grits. The Liberals would be quick to tie the Tories to Alberta and attempt to play Lougheeds position as Tory policy. If they protest too much they lose their base, if they don't protest then they alienate voters in central Canada. Might lead to an ealier version of Reform splintering the Tories.
At this point, in a touch of exquisite irony, the Supreme Court could cement Trudeaus victory by striking down the NEP, cooling the west while allowing Trudeau to claim that he tried his best but the activist Supreme Court thwarted the will of parliament.
It really depends on how it plays out.
If Lougheed really shuts off the tap, there would be such a scream from Ontario that you might get a WORSE policy than NEP. Like the oil fields/pipelines being nationalized, etc.
If he slows down the shipments, so there's shortages, but not a total cut off... Maybe he can convince Joe Sixpack in Ontario that Alberta's getting a raw deal (which it certainly was).
At that point Alberta is the only province self-sufficient in energy (the Saskatchewan heavy oil fields weren't yet producing even as much as Saskatchewan used, IIRC), so if Ottawa can spin it as 1 province against 9, Lougheed might lose badly. If Alberta can spin it as 'periphery vs Central Canada' and get BC, SK, MB and the Atlantic provinces onside.... Well, then he could get a much better deal.
But playing brinksman here could go either way easily, IMO. and would be quite risky.
Duly castigated. I got carried away.
Please remove the post if it is too distracting.
As DT has pointed out, the federal government ends up with justification for nationalization, not just regulation. Alberta doesn't really have anywhere to go after they turn off the tap. Neither do the Feds.
Please remove the post if it is too distracting.
As DT has pointed out, the federal government ends up with justification for nationalization, not just regulation. Alberta doesn't really have anywhere to go after they turn off the tap. Neither do the Feds.
Duly castigated. I got carried away.
Please remove the post if it is too distracting.
As DT has pointed out, the federal government ends up with justification for nationalization, not just regulation. Alberta doesn't really have anywhere to go after they turn off the tap. Neither do the Feds.
Do not think of yourself as castigated Your post did have some interesting ideas in it , Just because some people do not like it so what .
Just keep your post as polite as you can and let what others say about them roll of your back .
Remember outside of chat this is a board of what if's in history .
Hendryk
Banned
I'm not particularly familiar with Canadian politics under Trudeau, but if push had come to shove, it seems plausible to have the federal government at least contemplate nationalization to resolve the crisis.
The NEP was 80% of the way towards nationalization, and Trudeau had already created PetroCan in 1974. I suspect that if he did nationalize the industry it would further divide the country and drive out what little foreign investment (not that he ever particularly cared about dividing the country or driving away foreign investors) there was in Canada at the time. In 1984 Mulroney will privatize the industry when he becomes PM. So I'd say Lougheed has more to lose here. Not electorally: both were in their final terms and retiring within the next few years- Lougheed revered, Trudeau reviled- but politically Lougheed has more to lose.