Plausibility check: Yellowstone goes in '71 but...

(1) Some semblance of civilization remains intact - i.e., the world isn't knocked all the way back into the Stone Age, but the Dark Ages is a possibility, and retaining 1970s tech is a definite not-going-to-happen.

(2) Certain parts of the US remain intact, though of course devastated, and it's unlikely that the US can remain fully united for an extended period of time.

The date I have already pre-selected as being early afternoon Yellowstone time, October 30, 1971. The reason for this particular date is that, meteorologically, winds aloft were fairly weak, but with a notable northward component from Oklahoma up through Wisconsin, which might keep ashfall away from the East Coast but would instead deposit it all over the Midwestern breadbasket. As for why 1971, I think it might have some interesting cultural effects - vulcanism is well-known by now, but you'll no doubt have several preachers proclaiming it God's wrath for the sins of the late Sixties.

How many "years without a summer" strong would the eruption have to be? Would 4 be too many? Not enough? What about the Soviet Union - would it try to take advantage of its situation (as much as it could, at least... volcanic winter on top of Russian winter), and how?

I'm no expert on volcanics, but didn't they decide that a Yellowstone Eruption would be far more 'nuclear winter' than an actual post-war 'nuclear winter'? - the whole world's gonna experience super climate change and a proportion of population drop unseen since pre-history; wasn't it a similar eruption that left about 1000 human beings on Earth?

Congratulations

You are this week's winner of the Humbolt squid award. This highly prized award recognizes scenarios that eradicate the human race and most land based life, thereby clearing the decks for further explosive evolution of cephalopods to their proper place at the top of the animal kingdom.

TheUnmentionableSeaMammal said:

Congratulations

You are this week's winner of the Humbolt squid award. This highly prized award recognizes scenarios that eradicate the human race and most land based life, thereby clearing the decks for further explosive evolution of cephalopods to their proper place at the top of the animal kingdom.

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Lolll.

Traditionally geological/astronomical PODs go in ASB thread. But...

With the US breadbasket shot, the USSR (Ukraine specifically) is going to be in a stronger spot, until the world wide temperature drops...

bulbaquil said:

(1) Some semblance of civilization remains intact - i.e., the world isn't knocked all the way back into the Stone Age, but the Dark Ages is a possibility, and retaining 1970s tech is a definite not-going-to-happen.

(2) Certain parts of the US remain intact, though of course devastated, and it's unlikely that the US can remain fully united for an extended period of time.

The date I have already pre-selected as being early afternoon Yellowstone time, October 30, 1971. The reason for this particular date is that, meteorologically, winds aloft were fairly weak, but with a notable northward component from Oklahoma up through Wisconsin, which might keep ashfall away from the East Coast but would instead deposit it all over the Midwestern breadbasket. As for why 1971, I think it might have some interesting cultural effects - vulcanism is well-known by now, but you'll no doubt have several preachers proclaiming it God's wrath for the sins of the late Sixties.

How many "years without a summer" strong would the eruption have to be? Would 4 be too many? Not enough? What about the Soviet Union - would it try to take advantage of its situation (as much as it could, at least... volcanic winter on top of Russian winter), and how?

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Well, certainly a Yellowstone eruption in '71 would have horrific consequences for the United States, but I don't think civilization would totally disappear..........we'd have a lot of problems with anarchy, though, that is for damn sure.

And as for the volcanic winter's duration? Realistically, perhaps 12 to 18 months.

bulbaquil said:

(2) Certain parts of the US remain intact, though of course devastated, and it's unlikely that the US can remain fully united for an extended period of time.

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• Michigan
• California
• Hawaii
• Alaska
• Eastern Sea Board

This is a conservative map of the fallout of an eruption of this size. The maximum I read would be at least .5 CM up to New Jersey.




You pretty much have the Pacific North West a massive pile of ash, the salmon that live there would likely die out, meaning that one of Alaska's primary food sources are eliminated. Much of the Pacific Coast is ruined as well as the farms, the US-Mexican border goes into chaos with Americans trying to move south into Mexico (Irony?). The Mississippi is ruined environmentally, as well as large portions of the Gulf Coast wildlife. The Great Plains are useless, and America's prime source of food is almost gone. Canada will likely be affected greatly as well, the American food shortage would also hit Canada hard. Major cities like Chicago, St. Louis, and New Orleans, the 3 also likely hit hard, become areas where massive amounts of refugees move towards, probably in the millions. New York, Boston, Washington, and several cities in Florida are likely spared most of the ashfall, but will feel the food shortage a lot (Not as much, as they are major trading centers, and food will be fresh when arriving from other nations).

Now, if this happens in 1971, the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, as well as NATO would come up with some sort of agreement to help out the US, Canada, and Mexico, as much of Europe is likely affected by the food shortages. This agreement will likely end the Cold War prematurely, or at least delay it for another decade or so. This will probably be seen after a few decades as a world unifying catastrophe, as the fallout and temperature changes would force many nations to work together for food.

Noravea said:

You pretty much have the Pacific North West a massive pile of ash, the salmon that live there would likely die out, meaning that one of Alaska's primary food sources are eliminated.

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My bolding. Pacific-northwest salmon runs are pathetic. Dams and whatnot. North Pacific Salmon disproportionately run up to Alaskan streams which are far outside of the blast radius. IIRC they're on 3-5 year rotations, so you might wipe out a year or two of Pac-NW salmon, but they'll be back, maybe even stronger if the dams are destroyed.

Yellowstone...

Yoda says: "Bad for the U.S. that would be"...

I think you would see a rather massive influx of refugees to Mexico. U.S. economy goes down the crapper for a long while, if not forever.

Really and truly, we need to be more specific about how large of an eruption we are talking about. If we are talking an eruption on par with Toba (mega-colossal, or magnitude 8), we are not looking at just one year without a summer, but decades or even centuries. Global temperatures would plummet by several degrees centrigrade, effectively ruining the bread-baskets of the northern hemisphere, probably triggering a 'little ice-age'. Good-bye Superpowers.

A Krakatoa type event we could all recover from, but an 8 (like the one that hit Yellowstone 640,000 years ago) would be much, much bigger. It's not a planet killer, but it would knock the crap out of the human race for quite a while.

more soon.

Can we please not forget that an eruption at Yellowstone will not automatically be a VEI8 event that covers most of North America in three feet of ash. Smaller eruptions have also taken place in the past, varying between hydrothermal explosions (a nice new hole for a lake appears, although it will rain bits of steamed moose for a day or so) and effusive eruptions (a new hill made of lava appears over the space of a week) all the way up to larger events.