IS Seelöwe The Only Way To German Victory?

[MUC]

Originally Posted by bernard patton

There's no way the Axis is winning in North Africa. The ports of Libya couldn't support a larger army than it did OTL and the narrow front at El Alamein, gaurded by the med sea to the north and qattara depression to the south, negates Rommel's mobility and flanking maneouvers. Like OTL the British dig in and simply await reinforcements.

I don't agree with that.

The problem is, that when Germany decided to fight in North Africa (after the Italians almost got their ass kicked out of N. Africa), Germany was already busy in its war against the USSR.

In other words:

If the Germans decide to postpone Barbarossa to later than 1941 and decide to allocate all available forces into the Med, they will kick the British out of Egypt.
In order for this to happen, the Axis need:
1. To capture Malta
2. Refuel and Italian Navy
3. Allocate more Luftwaffe units in the Med
4. Bring in more forces in North Africa

With a constant resupply based not only on the ports but also on transport aircraft the Axis has a chance at taking Egypt.
This ATL has been done many times in this board, last time I read it was the
"Manstein in Africa" ATL by Blairwitch.

[Dave in St. Louis]

Originally Posted by ranoncles

I feel you are making a oft repeated fallacy in your lend lease assumption.
Yes, the American supplies greatly helped the USSR, by allowing them to focus on other hardware. But if they hadn't received it, surely they could have made most themselves. It just meant building less tanks, artillery pieces and aircraft. Which would have had an impact on strategy and maybe, just maybe, STAVKA would have been forced to fight smartly instead of just fighting hard and winning by burrying Germans with their dead.

Well, by 1945 two-thirds of the trucks in the Red Army were US-built. The US put the Soviet supply chain on wheels. During the war, the Soviets produced 92 locomotives. 2000 locomotives and 11,000 rail cars were supplied by Lend-Lease. Around 20% of Soviet military aircraft were US made and basically all of the aluminum used to make Soviet-built aircraft came from Lend-Lease. 14 million pairs of boots were sent. Millions of tons of food were sent. It doesn't matter if you have the world's best tanks if you can't keep them and their crews supplied.

"Battles are decided by the Quartermasters before the first shot is fired." - Erwin Rommel

Originally Posted by ranoncles

Closing down the Med in itself is not going to achieve that much. England can still move supplies along Africa. It just takes longer. What it will achieve is more or less secure Axis supply lines for a major push in (North) Africa, if the Axis decide to make it a major front. And considering how much trouble the British had with 3 run down German divisions, a major force with a decent supply line would have kicked them out of Egypt and the Levant. If that leads to sufficient oil, the picture changes again. It might not have led to Britain throwing in the towel but it would have strengthened the Axis by a significant degree. It also would have meant a defensive posture on the Ostfront (or perhaps even a postponement).

All points made by "von Roon" in W&R. The idea is to close off the Med, take North Africa (including the Suez) and then the oil fields of Iraq and Iran. "von Roon" pontificates quite noticeably that Ploesti is the only real source of oil that Germany has to work with. Another thing to keep in mind is that 70% of Soviet-bound Lend-Lease went through Iran.

Originally Posted by ranoncles

Considering the difficulty England had with just a handful of U-boats, a much larger U-boat fleet earlier in the war could have blockaded England (assuming the British didn't undertake pre-emptive measures when the Germans were building this larger U-boat fleet). But again, it is unlikely it would have led to a collapse. Rationing of food and military materials would have enabled England to last a couple of years. Germany did the same in WWI. And at the same time, England would be doing everything it could to break the blockade....Odds are they would have succeeded before enough people starved to force the government to surrender.

[Dave in St. Louis]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

In a word? No.

The Med was closed for 2 years, and the U-boat offensive failed in OTL.
In any case, the Med is a luxury for Britain, they simply keep the convoys going via the cape (good luck at gettinga force far enough south to interfere with that route...!!

How will they do that with Germany in the Mid-East oil fields and Japan in the Far East oil fields?

[Grimm Reaper]

Not to mention whether Germany had sufficient nerve gas to use on such a scale and why Hitler and the German High Command would even consider it as they had no idea they were walking into a trap at Kursk nor did they consider the battle more than an effort to remove a single salient into German lines.


MUC, yes, and by 1942 the Red Army is much more powerful and better equipped and has had another year to recover from the purges under Stalin. As a result Barbarossa 1942 is much bloodier and less successful for the Germans.

And Barbarossa was launched more than six months after Hitler sent the Afrika Korps to Libya.

[PMN1]

[QUOTE=MUC;3640953]I don't agree with that.

If the Germans decide to postpone Barbarossa to later than 1941 and decide to allocate all available forces into the Med, they will kick the British out of Egypt.
In order for this to happen, the Axis need:
1. To capture Malta
2. Refuel and Italian Navy
3. Allocate more Luftwaffe units in the Med
4. Bring in more forces in North Africa

/QUOTE]

Easily said, less easily done

Martin Van Crefeld’s ‘Supplying war’

A motorised force of one division, such as the Germans originally sent to Libya, required 350 tons of supplies a day, including water. To transport this quantity over 300 miles of desert, the Army High Command calculated that, apart from the troops organic vehicles and excluding any reserves, thirty-nine columns each consisting of thirty two-ton trucks would be needed. This however, was only the beginning. Rommel had scarcely arrived in Tripoli when he started clamouring for reinforcements and Hitler, overriding Halder’s objections, decided to send him the 15th Armoured Division. This raised the motor-transport capacity needed to sustain the Deutsches Afrika Korps (DAK) to 6,000 tons; since this was proportionally ten times as much as the amount allocated to the armies preparing to invade Russia, the announcement was met by howls of protest from the OKH quartermaster-general who feared lest Rommel’s insatiable requirements would seriously compromise Barbarossa. Moreover, should Rommel receive still more reinforcements – or should he go beyond the 300 mile limit – a shortage of vehicles was bound to ensure.


Meanwhile, Stalin is lurking in the East and geting stonger by the day - some of the talk in FFO/APOD is relevant here

http://francefightson.yuku.com/topic/794

[ranoncles]

Originally Posted by Dave in St. Louis

Well, by 1945 two-thirds of the trucks in the Red Army were US-built. The US put the Soviet supply chain on wheels. During the war, the Soviets produced 92 locomotives. 2000 locomotives and 11,000 rail cars were supplied by Lend-Lease. Around 20% of Soviet military aircraft were US made and basically all of the aluminum used to make Soviet-built aircraft came from Lend-Lease. 14 million pairs of boots were sent. Millions of tons of food were sent. It doesn't matter if you have the world's best tanks if you can't keep them and their crews supplied.

"Battles are decided by the Quartermasters before the first shot is fired." - Erwin Rommel

Yes, I know. My point is that Russia was able to concentrate on building tanks, guns and aircraft because lend-lease supplied so much other products. Had Russia been forced to produce them on their own, I am sure they could. It just would have taken up important R&D and production capacity. Which would have meant that they had less frontline strength. As an example, Russia built approximately 110,000 tanks and the Germans destroyed 95,000 of them....Without the surplus of material to offset tactical inferiority (not strategic once STAVKA got its act together by late 1942/early 1943), Russia is in for a real fight...

[Fenwick]

I think one of the issues is always that its the Germans who must change to ensure victory. The conditions the allies have never change in many of our Nazi Victory ideas. Nerve gas at a single battle stops the UK how? I think limiting the T-34, and having the British waste airpower is the best step to victory.

The T-34 because while a single weapon rarely wins a war the Soviet tank did three key actions. First it slowed the Germans down for months as Panzer III's went against them. Second it forced Germany to switch from the rather simple design towards more complicated and resource demanding designs. Third going off of how tank crews spoke of the T-34 it scared the troops and made them aware they were not invincible.

So have the UK avoid the smart plan, which some in the RAF were against, in using radar to spot the enemy with planes flying up to meet them. Instead have the planes fly out to engage the Germans. This limits their fly time, and most importantly would hinder the planes for the BoB, as germany instead must defend itself. This could in effect limit damage to the UK, and keep the war seeming more distant to the British populace. The constant terror of invasion and the desire to get the Germans back could be stopped.

The USSR makes the A-20 and not the other designs. Stalin gave permission to make the new prototypes when a new tank was desired at the time. The A-20 had weak armor, a small gun, and more. Fielding them in numbers similar to the T-34's would see the Panzer's able to take it on easily. Even the Pak 36 which British and French tank crews laughed off could take out the A-20 on paper.

[loughery111]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

I think you have very unrealistic expectations of the effect of WW2-era dispersants and dispersal mechanisms (for non-persistant chemicals yet!)over an area the size of the Kursk battlefield, while ignoring Soviet chemical retaliation (which granted wont be as effective, but will hurt).
Remember, chemical weapons favour the defence, not the attacker

That last statement is true only insofar as they make the terrain far more difficult to move through. In the case of Kursk, however, the Germans would not have needed to immediately move to exploit the gap they blew in the Soviet lines... the catastrophic damage done by the use of the nerve agents at all would have been sufficient to possibly win the war, when combined with their continued use.

Nerve gas deprives the Soviets of their key advantage; the ability to wear down a German military machine of superior quality through weight of numbers. A 6-1 advantage in tanks doesn't matter if, whenever they mass in a concentrated area to take on a German army, it paves the way with a Tabun bombardment that takes out the crews. While there are obviously limitations on its use, it makes the Red Army's advantages mostly disappear just like that.

And, in answer to your first point, I'm fairly sure the Germans knew enough about the properties of their Sarin and Tabun stockpiles to be able to disperse them extremely effectively... the principles, after all, aren't much different from any other chemical warfare agent that had been used before then; what is different is the saturation level required to kill (much lower) and the effectiveness of countermeasures (close to nil). The Germans would have, at the least, killed a huge number of men and forced many of the remainder to retreat without equipment. That is a huge boon in and of itself, and German production could have been revamped to allow for the continued use of Tabun and even Sarin fairly quickly.

Soviet chemical retaliation would be miserably ineffective in comparison, and I don't think they would have been able to respond at all at Kursk... the surprise of being hit by an invisible gas that doesn't respond to the current chem-countermeasures would pretty much burn them there. And while the effectiveness would thereafter be somewhat lower, the fact remains that the only effective defense the Soviets have is dispersing to the point where they offer no tempting targets. Which poses some difficulties when it comes to defending against conventional weaponry.

Originally Posted by Grimm Reaper

Not to mention whether Germany had sufficient nerve gas to use on such a scale and why Hitler and the German High Command would even consider it as they had no idea they were walking into a trap at Kursk nor did they consider the battle more than an effort to remove a single salient into German lines.

They had somewhere between 500 kg and 10 tons of Sarin and upwards of 5000 tons of Tabun stockpiled, with long-term production capacity for Tabun already in place. Sarin production was slated to be at 40 tons a month in late '43 had they chosen to pursue it.

Now, the decision wouldn't have been "oh, let's use this stuff here"... it would have been a much earlier "let's disperse our stockpiles of this to the army commands in case we authorize them to use it." When it becomes apparent that the Soviets have massed a significant fraction of their forces at Kursk, they get said authorization or someone decides it's worth it and pulls the trigger.

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by Dave in St. Louis

How will they do that with Germany in the Mid-East oil fields and Japan in the Far East oil fields?

Ah, no doubt the Heer getting flown there on magic flying sealions?

Talk of Germany happily advancing to Iran while the rest of the world watches in mute admiration are Axiswanking fantasies. As has been talked through many, many times on this board...

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by loughery111

That last statement is true only insofar as they make the terrain far more difficult to move through. In the case of Kursk, however, the Germans would not have needed to immediately move to exploit the gap they blew in the Soviet lines... the catastrophic damage done by the use of the nerve agents at all would have been sufficient to possibly win the war, when combined with their continued use.

Nerve gas deprives the Soviets of their key advantage; the ability to wear down a German military machine of superior quality through weight of numbers. A 6-1 advantage in tanks doesn't matter if, whenever they mass in a concentrated area to take on a German army, it paves the way with a Tabun bombardment that takes out the crews. While there are obviously limitations on its use, it makes the Red Army's advantages mostly disappear just like that.

And, in answer to your first point, I'm fairly sure the Germans knew enough about the properties of their Sarin and Tabun stockpiles to be able to disperse them extremely effectively... the principles, after all, aren't much different from any other chemical warfare agent that had been used before then; what is different is the saturation level required to kill (much lower) and the effectiveness of countermeasures (close to nil). The Germans would have, at the least, killed a huge number of men and forced many of the remainder to retreat without equipment. That is a huge boon in and of itself, and German production could have been revamped to allow for the continued use of Tabun and even Sarin fairly quickly.

Soviet chemical retaliation would be miserably ineffective in comparison, and I don't think they would have been able to respond at all at Kursk... the surprise of being hit by an invisible gas that doesn't respond to the current chem-countermeasures would pretty much burn them there. And while the effectiveness would thereafter be somewhat lower, the fact remains that the only effective defense the Soviets have is dispersing to the point where they offer no tempting targets. Which poses some difficulties when it comes to defending against conventional weaponry.



They had somewhere between 500 kg and 10 tons of Sarin and upwards of 5000 tons of Tabun stockpiled, with long-term production capacity for Tabun already in place. Sarin production was slated to be at 40 tons a month in late '43 had they chosen to pursue it.

Now, the decision wouldn't have been "oh, let's use this stuff here"... it would have been a much earlier "let's disperse our stockpiles of this to the army commands in case we authorize them to use it." When it becomes apparent that the Soviets have massed a significant fraction of their forces at Kursk, they get said authorization or someone decides it's worth it and pulls the trigger.

I'm sorry, but you (a) need to go read up on how difficult it is in actual practice to disperse and use nerve agens effectively (especialy WW2 versions, its hard enough now!)
(b) go and look up the size of the Kursk battle area and then work out just how many missions you'll need to get all the gas you need over it...lets be nice and assume it doesnt rain either, which will screw you up even more.

[Dave in St. Louis]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

Ah, no doubt the Heer getting flown there on magic flying sealions?

No. They drive there.

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

Talk of Germany happily advancing to Iran while the rest of the world watches in mute admiration are Axiswanking fantasies. As has been talked through many, many times on this board...

Well, if Gibraltar and Malta are gone, just how do you stop Rommel from getting the supplies he needs to defeat British Armies in Africa and the Middle East?

[Grimm Reaper]

Since no one has yet explained how Malta and especially Gibralter are gone in the first place...



loughery111, so this much earlier dispersal is certainly spotted by Stavka which can plan accordingly and this still avoids the fundamental question as to why Nazi Germany wants to unleash chemical weapons and invite the Soviet response over what Berlin saw as a battle of secondary importance.

[loughery111]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

I'm sorry, but you (a) need to go read up on how difficult it is in actual practice to disperse and use nerve agens effectively (especialy WW2 versions, its hard enough now!)
(b) go and look up the size of the Kursk battle area and then work out just how many missions you'll need to get all the gas you need over it...lets be nice and assume it doesnt rain either, which will screw you up even more.

Ok, having actually found a map... you have quite a point about the area of the battle. That said, I've seen people use this POD before. This, for instance. http://althistory.wikia.com/wiki/Bat...ie_ganze_Welt))

The author seems to have a better plan running than I do. Obviously, he might be wrong, but he appears to know something of the mechanics of the nerve agents in question. And the stockpiles available.

EDIT: link should work now... that was dumb.

[Grimm Reaper]

An empty page awaiting an article or other input?

[loughery111]

Originally Posted by Grimm Reaper

Since no one has yet explained how Malta and especially Gibralter are gone in the first place...



loughery111, so this much earlier dispersal is certainly spotted by Stavka which can plan accordingly and this still avoids the fundamental question as to why Nazi Germany wants to unleash chemical weapons and invite the Soviet response over what Berlin saw as a battle of secondary importance.

No one on the Allied side knew the stuff existed at all until midway through the battle. Even then it was only the British, whose upper echelons apparently ignored the indicators until some of it was actually captured in 1945. And the Soviet intelligence services had the nasty habit of not telling the boss things he didn't want to hear. Understandable, given who the boss was, but nonetheless problematic. Anyway, I'd suggest taking a look at the link I posted, the author suggests a slightly different mechanism diverging from an earlier POD.

And again, what Soviet response? Mustard gas? Pshh. Artillery firing mustard gas against counter-battery fire with Tabun... does not make for long artillery duels. Not to mention that if the Germans take Kursk in crushing fashion, a quarter of the Soviet artillery corps just got captured and most of its best personnel killed. While I agree that the specific POD required to have nerve gas released for use and concentrated at Kursk is somewhat unlikely, it is nonetheless entirely possible and a completely legitimate method for the Germans to win the war without Sealion.

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by Dave in St. Louis

No. They drive there.



Well, if Gibraltar and Malta are gone, just how do you stop Rommel from getting the supplies he needs to defeat British Armies in Africa and the Middle East?

Drive? On what?? You HAVE looked at the road and rail networks in the area at that timem, havent you..and allowed for the unsporting Brits blowing it all up after them as they retreat...oh, wait, no you haven't....

The issues of the volume of supplies was never interdiction, it was port and transport capacity. Yes, given time to build, invest, and build transport nets, a much stronger drive on Egypt can be arranged. Then you're looking at a thousand+ miles of basically trackless desert (the British, being sensible, used to go by ship. That isnt an option for Germany, unless you've magically handwaved the RN away as well??).
Again, given time and money (LOTS of both!) you can cross this...by which point A-bombs are probably landing in Berlin... Oh, and since you STILL dont have any extra oil, the needs of building all this infrastructure in the middle of nowhere are going to be a problem...

[loughery111]

Originally Posted by Grimm Reaper

An empty page awaiting an article or other input?

Fixed. Forgot the closing parenthesis. Sorry.

[Grimm Reaper]

You have not established that this wins the war for Germany and you have made no effort to show why this dramatic change of policy takes place, without which it is not plausible.

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by loughery111

Ok, having actually found a map... you have quite a point about the area of the battle. That said, I've seen people use this POD before. This, for instance. http://althistory.wikia.com/wiki/Bat...ie_ganze_Welt))

The author seems to have a better plan running than I do. Obviously, he might be wrong, but he appears to know something of the mechanics of the nerve agents in question. And the stockpiles available.

EDIT: link should work now... that was dumb.

Sorry, referencing a bit of fiction isnt exactly cast iron proof, you know.
From memory, the area to be covered is around 200 miles SQUARE. Gleep.
Even the Soviets in the 70's - 80's never planned more than localised nerve agent attacks - they weren't going to try and cover West Germany with non-persistant agents, and they had far more experience, training and equipment available.

Oh, and btw, while not as cool as nerve agents, things like Mustard Gas and Lewisite are quite nasty enough on their own. Not so uselful for helping daytime attacks, but used as nighttime retaliation....not pleasant for the Germans

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by Grimm Reaper

You have not established that this wins the war for Germany and you have made no effort to show why this dramatic change of policy takes place, without which it is not plausible.

But..but, GRIMM!!!

Its cos german nerve gas is, like, so cool man.....

SHAME on you not to know better.....