Protect and Survive: A Timeline

[Macragge1]

Originally Posted by CobiWann

I kind of hope it's not Bush...

This TL is awesome because of gritty, in-your-face realism. The world ends with a bang and the aftermath is brutal and gruesome. Bush and the Caesar of New York is...a little...it just doesn't fit the grim vision of the UK that's been painted.

Well yeah - the Caesar of NY thing's a joke on the American's part, whilst, much as I love the idea of GWB turning up, the chances of it actually happening are perishingly slim.

[CobiWann]

Originally Posted by Macragge1

Well yeah - the Caesar of NY thing's a joke on the American's part, whilst, much as I love the idea of GWB turning up, the chances of it actually happening are perishingly slim.

You are a good man, and I wish your enemies short lives.

[galveston bay]

Originally Posted by Astrodragon

Actually, an awful lot of bombs wont go off where they are expected to.

Estimates at the time were that about 50% of Russian missiles would (a) work, (b) land somewhere near the target, and (c) go off properly.
(It was alleged that this estimate was on the high side!). Not such a problem on important targets, they'd get 2 shots (and hopefully no fratricide); cities tend to get a bit overkilled.

But what this means in practice is that some targets are overkilled, while some are missed completely, especially secondary targets.

(Read The Threat from this period, its an interesting analysis by a Russian of the state of the Russian forces - a bit theatrical, but still interesting).

Indeed, its thought one of the main props to MAD was the fact that noone on either side really knew how many weapons wpuld work or hit - thus makinga preeptive strike rather more chancy than is comfortable

James Dunnigan in his first edition of "How to Make War" also states this (book is a must read on nuclear war in the 1980s, although now out of print. The 3rd Edition devotes far less time to the subject)

One of the interesting facts of the Cold War era pre-GPS is that all of the ICBMs had internal guidance systems that may very well have been seriously affected by proximity to the north magnetic pole. No one ever found out because obviously a missile test fired over the north magnetic pole was out of the question.

[JN1]

IIRC some missiles like Polaris, Poseidon and Trident also used stellar navigation as well as INS. I couldn't say for the Minuteman II and III, which would be the backbone of SAC's ICBM force in this period.
I think that the last of the Titan IIs were gone by '84/85 and the first Peacekeepers wouldn't have been operational. I'd need to double check that, though.

[Mario Rossi]

We are in the hands of the demiurge Macragge1 for the exact figures (although I do not know if we'll never know in this TL, I believe that one of the more intriguing side of this story is the lack of an omniscient narrator, allowing us to share the same uncertainty and the same concerns that face the protagonists), but I, after thinking about it a bit, I think there might be more survivors in the world than I thought if ICBMs were really having all the problems you have highlighted.

[CaliBoy1990]

Originally Posted by galveston bay

James Dunnigan in his first edition of "How to Make War" also states this (book is a must read on nuclear war in the 1980s, although now out of print. The 3rd Edition devotes far less time to the subject)

One of the interesting facts of the Cold War era pre-GPS is that all of the ICBMs had internal guidance systems that may very well have been seriously affected by proximity to the north magnetic pole. No one ever found out because obviously a missile test fired over the north magnetic pole was out of the question.

True, and perhaps some intended targets survived.............I'd say about 20 to 25%. Maybe..............Macragge, would it be a problem to eventually post a list of U.S. cities that survived despite being targets?

[Macragge1]

Originally Posted by CobiWann

You are a good man, and I wish your enemies short lives.

This is a radical compliment.

Originally Posted by galveston bay

James Dunnigan in his first edition of "How to Make War" also states this (book is a must read on nuclear war in the 1980s, although now out of print. The 3rd Edition devotes far less time to the subject)

One of the interesting facts of the Cold War era pre-GPS is that all of the ICBMs had internal guidance systems that may very well have been seriously affected by proximity to the north magnetic pole. No one ever found out because obviously a missile test fired over the north magnetic pole was out of the question.

I shall have to read that book - I can't remember quite of the top of my head what ratio of failures I worked with, but it was nearing a quarter of all launches being duds or misses.

Originally Posted by JN1

IIRC some missiles like Polaris, Poseidon and Trident also used stellar navigation as well as INS. I couldn't say for the Minuteman II and III, which would be the backbone of SAC's ICBM force in this period.
I think that the last of the Titan IIs were gone by '84/85 and the first Peacekeepers wouldn't have been operational. I'd need to double check that, though.

C'est tres vrai.

Originally Posted by CaliBoy1990

True, and perhaps some intended targets survived.............I'd say about 20 to 25%. Maybe..............Macragge, would it be a problem to eventually post a list of U.S. cities that survived despite being targets?

Yeah - there'll be a US roundup at some point once i've decided how to cheat it in to the story.

[JN1]

Perhaps a survey carried out by SAC's remaining U-2s, or maybe what cities and military bases still respond via radio? It might be possible for the US to use its remaining KH sats if there are still downlinks in action.

[Deckhand]

Man this thing is scary. In 1984 i was an army cadet. ITTL i am a 16 year old shooting looters.

Or dead.

[Macragge1]

Originally Posted by JN1

Perhaps a survey carried out by SAC's remaining U-2s, or maybe what cities and military bases still respond via radio? It might be possible for the US to use its remaining KH sats if there are still downlinks in action.

Something like that, yeah - just got to get the Prospero guys in range of a trustworthy and well informed source - might be harder than it sounds

[Lemon flavoured]

Originally Posted by Macragge1

Something like that, yeah - just got to get the Prospero guys in range of a trustworthy and well informed source - might be harder than it sounds

Especially on the "trustworthy" front I'd guess, if their anything like the British officer we've met...

[Quantum Imperator]

This is quite scary. I just read through the whole thing and I'm still trying to work out if I live or not.
I live in a village quite close to an RAF base, but it wasn't listed as suffering a nuclear strike, but I also live within 20 miles of Reading, which I believe is listed as taking two nukes, so would the fallout get me, or should I be ok (in the short term)?

But really great TL, disturbing and yet so gripping, though I probably shouldn't be reading this late at night after watching The Day After.

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by galveston bay

James Dunnigan in his first edition of "How to Make War" also states this (book is a must read on nuclear war in the 1980s, although now out of print. The 3rd Edition devotes far less time to the subject)

One of the interesting facts of the Cold War era pre-GPS is that all of the ICBMs had internal guidance systems that may very well have been seriously affected by proximity to the north magnetic pole. No one ever found out because obviously a missile test fired over the north magnetic pole was out of the question.

It was the reason they went to stellar guidance in later systems. The problem with an INS is that its affected by the Earths gravitation field. Not usually a problem (in an aircraft, you go via waypoints which correct any errors at regular intervals), but for missiles its a big problem. The way around it is to have a map of the anomalies to use to correct this. However to do this, you need to fly test runs over the pole. Which, needless to say, has never been done!

Also, noone (on any side!) has afaik, ever fired a test missile cold - ie without a week os so of making sure everything is fine (they are just too expensive). So noone really know how many will fail....

However in OTL this is a GOOD thing! The more the uncertainty, the less chance someone will think a true premptive strike is possible...

[Astrodragon]

Originally Posted by Quantum Imperator

This is quite scary. I just read through the whole thing and I'm still trying to work out if I live or not.
I live in a village quite close to an RAF base, but it wasn't listed as suffering a nuclear strike, but I also live within 20 miles of Reading, which I believe is listed as taking two nukes, so would the fallout get me, or should I be ok (in the short term)?

But really great TL, disturbing and yet so gripping, though I probably shouldn't be reading this late at night after watching The Day After.

If you're north of Reading the Harwell bomb gets you.
If your SW the Aldermaston one does.
SE dont know if they hit Odiham - quite probably.
Face it, you're toast.

So am I, I was only 8m north of Farnborough/Aldershot.

[Freizeit]

Originally Posted by Macragge1

X - Stay at Home

The risk is as great in the countryside as in the towns.

The Battle of Felton was one of many such small engagements that plagued the mainland in the weeks and months after the attacks. A small Northumbrian village (twenty-four miles north of Newcastle) with a population of around 700 people, this place had been as quaint and unassuming as any other before the war. This, like everything else, changed after the attack.

H-hour itself was something of an anti-climax for the villagers - when the one hand-cranked siren atop the Northumberland Arms started to croak and whine its warning, they hid. For hours and hours they tensed up in the dark. They felt Heddon and they felt the Airport. Eventually, though, they came out - windows remained unbroken; colourful flowerboxes still rustled in the wind.

For a few days, the villagers did their best to carry on as normal. People walked their dogs and made conversation in the street. Some even bought stamps at the local Post Office. Like a family in a failing marriage, however, the cracks were clear beneath the act. Neighbours smiled at each other and revealed, inadvertently, the sleeplessness in their faces. Conversation was stilted and careful - the world outside theirs was treated like a recent bereavement and sidestepped. The phones don't work.

The Village Store has been emptied; it is not refilled, but the owner keeps it open just in case.

After three weeks, the illusion is shattered. A coachload of refugees from Darras Hall has made its way up the motorway towards the village. The bus, and its two man police escort finds the road into Felton blocked by an overturned tractor and trailer. The two policemen retreat after coming under shotgun fire from behind the barricade. A petrol bomb damages the refugee bus.

Sixteen hours later, an army munitions convoy on the A1 is ambushed and stripped bare. The assailants attempt to use surprise and numbers to shock the troops accompanying the convoy into surrender; nevertheless, a 15 year old cadet is fatally wounded trying to resist.

News of the unrest reaches as far as Whitelaw in Corsham - he demands that anyone resisting the rule of law recieve 'a short, sharp shock'.

Eshott Airfield, four miles to the south of Felton, is now busier than it has ever been. The staging post for Operation HEPHAESTUS, it plays host to as many soldiers and policemen as can be diverted from 'reconstruction' duties in the devestated areas (indeed, for the duration of the operation, the majority of soldiers in and around Newcastle are second-line; cadets or conscripts) Two Firefly training aircraft have been hastily armed with CS gas canisters and deployed to the strip (these will remain undeployed in this particular engagement)

One of these planes overflies Felton for forty-five minutes- through a tannoy system the residents are ordered to fly a white sheet from their windows or face retaliation.

Some do, but the more militant wing of the residents soon rip them down. They have no flag and no creed. This is not a revolution. The men and women simply want to live in peace. In the past.

It is 8:45 AM, March 10th, 1984. Cromwell, Cromwell, Cromwell.

*

In the plush seat of a tourist coach, the Constable had slept - truly slept - for the first time since the attack. He was wide awake now, though, as his Sergeant screamed at him to keep his head down. His squad finds itself behind a low wall looking across the Coquet - the one medieval bridge across the obstacle is uncrossable - a machine gun in the church-tower across the river has it zeroed.

There are soldiers in the pub behind the Constable. They are deafening him. Occasionaly he catches a figure sprinting across the road. He aims to miss. There is something of a stalemate unfolding.

Some of the pebbles by the Constables' hand start bouncing - the noise gets noisier. What on earth is that smell Oh christ that's a tank - the Constable buries his head in his chest and gets further into cover. He is vaguely surprised that he knows the tank is a Chieftain - long - forgotten memories of Eagle Annuals, no dou BAAAAANG

Ringing ringing ringing nose and eyes burn cordite; taste of fireworks.

Dragged up by his shoulder, running across the bridge - church spire gone - slam into a wall, smashes his shoulder. Shoot run shoot run shoot run TRIP fuck, fuck, fuck, hands and knees grazed and bleeding crawl down the wall.

The ground next to him bursts into flames; the Constable is winded. He stares at the sky and realises that he hasn't spoken a word since the war started. Snaps back into it; runs for the nearest open door.

The cool of the church hits him first - he chokes on dust second. As it clears, he recoils. Three armed men, all staring at him.

There's a fourth on the altar - most of him.

'We didn't mean for this to happen, son', said the Farmer, throwing his Sten gun down - 'we just coughcoughcough we just wanted to be left alone.'. The Farmer mops the brow of the boy writhing on the altar. He kisses him on the forehead.

The Constable nods towards the door. They are coming quietly.

The Constables' eyes are adjusting to the light when he realises that there are a good twenty soldiers with weapons trained on the church door. They do not look like they are fucking around. He turns round and looks the Farmer and friends in the eyes. Tears all round.

Choose the fucking cowboys. Especially when they've got a fucking tank.

Within two days, nine hundred refugees have moved into an empty Felton. Short and sharp, this small village's small war is repeated a dozen times up and down the land. This is Britain after a nuclear war.

Christ. I've been there.

[JN1]

Originally Posted by Macragge1

Something like that, yeah - just got to get the Prospero guys in range of a trustworthy and well informed source - might be harder than it sounds

I remember in Arc Light a list of targets on a handy map is shown. It included casualty numbers and even fall-out plumes.
If they make it to an operational military base, or a government command bunker then they might find such a source.

[Macragge1]

XIII - Refuges

The best place is farthest away from the roof and outside walls.

The six Swiss personnel aboard the helicopter landed near Yeovil are arrested and moved under armed guard to the nearby RNAS station. The food - mostly high energy chocolate bars and corn stockpiled since the 1960s - is earmarked for CHANTICLEER.

In Newcastle, a petrol bomb is thrown through a window of the Freeman Hospital - two 'patients' (ironically, victims of burns) are killed. An additional two hundred volunteers are armed; anything from crowbars to pool cues are the order of the day, now - guns and ammuniton are running worryingly low.

Don't be such a... baby

A rumour begins that the Yorkshire RSG is feeding better than the North-East Region - CS-gas armed training aircraft are deployed to stem the tide of souls attempting to get down the A1 - mutual aid is requested from both the North Yorkshire and Lothian and Borders police forces - it is refused; Devon and Cornwall Police promise a few SPGs but can't fathom how to get them up here.

The rumour is not true.

On the 29th March, farmers in the Hebrides report a brief, bright flash on the horizon. Although no radiological equipment is available (or can be moved any time soon), it is believed that this constitutes an attempted Soviet attack.

They took your arm

The pit at Beamish Open-Air museum is now operational; the volunteers which had worked there pre-war, however, are the core of the region's attempt to train more industrial conscripts. Within three hours, a thirteen year old boy has lost his foot to a steam drill.

The RAN crew are entertained at a royal reception at Southwick House - there is a lost lustre to the proceedings, but it is gratefully recieved given the circumstances. Half the crew (and half a British crew) are sent back to Australia and told to bring back the now fabled 'aid ships'. The other half remain in England - they are, in so many words, a deposit.

*

The Officer bursts into the bunker. He shouts - 'Your Controller is dead. I am now in command for the rest of the Emergency. As you were.'

He is flanked by three or four regulars - there is no violence but there is threat. He strides with filthy boots over to the Controller's desk. Sit down, feet up. With one arm he knocks the family photographs onto the floor. He has nothing to replace them with - no pictures of his wife or his baby daughter, hungry in the countryside. No pictures of his nephew, nineteen forever in a Belfast backstreet. He runs his hands through his hair. He lights a cigarette. Hands through his hair again.

'Lieutenant, here'. Voice cracks as he beckons. 'Have them take a third of men's rations - someone'll crack about the Freeman attacks. Give what we've gained to infants under six.'

'Right away, sir' - slight excitement as he snaps to attention and turns to go.

'And have all the Micks rounded up'

'Excuse me, sir?'

'The Irishmen, boy - they'll be behind the disturbances; there's no doubt about that - take them to the racecourse and starve some answers out. Let's see if they're all such fans of the hunger strike.'

'W-with respect, sir, I can't imagine -'

A raised eyebrow - 'Insubordination?'

'No, no, sir - I'll get to it sir'.

*

The Controller wakes up in the shivering cold. Black figures around him. Take him by the hand (his only hand). Drag him out of his bed.

Oh god I'm so sorry what have i done imsosorry

Through the corridors and he hears them echo.

ohjesus

Down the stairs - his feet don't touch the ground. Round the back.

[JN1]

Looks like we've just seen the UK's first military coup since Cromwellian times. The officer's motivation is also now pretty clear.
To put it really harshly detaining the Irish population will mean more food for everyone else. Unfortunately it also means taking a source of labour out of the population of able-bodied survivors.

My impression now of the Controller is of a good and decent man who made terrible decisions. So far the Officer looks like a Grade One, twenty-four carat b*stard, though we can probably understand why.

[galveston bay]

Originally Posted by Deckhand

Man this thing is scary. In 1984 i was an army cadet. ITTL i am a 16 year old shooting looters.

Or dead.

you are doing better than I am... unless one of the escape plans my Dad and I worked out, I lived between the Baytown, Pasadena and Texas City refinery areas, and almost certainly even a near miss means I am toast.

If I am lucky, we are on a sailboat half way to Belize ( I was 22 at the time)

[JN1]

Did a bit of research using this website: http://www.carloslabs.com/node/20.
Turns out even if Rosyth and MHQ Pitreavie are hit by 1.4Mt warheads, I won't be immediately blown to bits as I'm beyond the danger zone for pressure and thermal effects and prevailing winds will carry any fallout away. There is also high ground between me and those targets, which should provide extra protection. This all assumes that both warheads hit their targets with a degree of accuracy.
Even a 10.5Mt warhead hitting Pitreavie would be survivable at the range I'm at so long as one was indoors to avoid flash-burns.

I'd just have to hope that the Controller's equivalent in Fife doesn't take the same decision on feeding young children (I would have been 4). As teachers I think my parents would have found themselves being asked to help man the Rest Centres that would have been set up in their schools.
I can only hope that they would have stayed at home instead as my Dad's old school is practically at GZ for Pitreavie and my Mum's school at that time was within the 5psi and third degree burns zone, meaning that if the school was not blasted to bits, it would be burned to ashes.