Russia and China in the eighteenth century

OTL Peter The Great decided that Russia should be a European power and not an Asiatic one. The struggle with China was also curtailed by the process towards and the completion of the Kiakhta Treaty.

How about in ATL Russia does not go along this route - either route. If Russia remains an Asiatic-focused power with a presence in Europe, what then ? Without a Kiakhta Treaty would Russia and China spend most of the next 100 years vying for supremacy ?

How would this affect the long-term direction and development of Russia ? Would Central Asia remain independent or fall within another orbit, if Russian energies once directed East remain in that direction ?

Grey Wolf

This might be pretty bad for Russia. From this book on the Romanov family by W. Bruce Lincoln I've been reading, it seems that in the century before Peter the Great, the various maritime European powers were starting to tentacle their way into Russia. After all, you can make a killing selling amber and furs to the West, while paying the locals a pittance. I recall something about the various powers (England, Sweden, the German states, Denmark) starting to create some very informal "spheres of influence" in the Baltic and on the western periphery. Might Russia itself be gobbled up as imperialism comes to the fore?

It would be interesting if Moscow ended up being in the further West of Russia. Sweden and Poland in the North, and Poland, the Golden Horde, the Ottomans and the Habsburgs in the South. With Russia locked in a titanic struggle for dominance with the Manchus. Assuming that they win this, for failure would lead no doubt to complete collapse and there would be no Russia to talk about, what would Russia become ? A victory over China would presumably bring dominance in Mongolia, Dzungaria and the rest of Chinese Turkestan, Manchuria and perhaps Korea. A more Eastern-focused Russia could also establish more permanent settlements in Alaska and the West coast of North America.

By the time the Europeans are pressing into the Far East in the ninenteenth century, maybe it is not only China and Japan they are trying to open up, but Russia as well ?

Grey Wolf

Might it be possible that a long-term conflict with Russia would prompt China to try modernization sooner? Also, if Russia does not shift to a European focus I assume that's going to have a big effect on the Great Northern War, do we end up with Sweden as one of the great powers of Europe?

Chengar Qordath said:

Might it be possible that a long-term conflict with Russia would prompt China to try modernization sooner? Also, if Russia does not shift to a European focus I assume that's going to have a big effect on the Great Northern War, do we end up with Sweden as one of the great powers of Europe?

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Long term conflict with China is difficult to sustain at that level of technology and infrastructure without moving Russia's centre of population and power further East - over a period of time, of course.

An interesting possibility, actually, might be a sort of merger of the two as a political entity - A Russian dynasty in China, as it were. I can't think of a plausible way how that might happen, but it would be interesting for sure. Perhaps the Ming remnant was more united and flee to Taiwan in larger numbers, forming a more substantial source of anti-Manchu resistance, and corroborated with the Russians for China proper in exchange for the traditionally barbarian territories of Manchuria and Mongolia?

By the way Grey Wolf, the Golden Horde was long dead by time of Kiakhta, although Khanate of Crimea remained.

OK, its...15 years since I studied the history of the Golden Horde but I was under the impression that the remnant continued to call itself by that name into the eighteenth century ? Obviously, I could be wrong. I keep wondering whether I should get out my university notes one day. Much of what we learnt was from direct translations by our tutor so doesn't exist elsewhere; well I suppose some of it does now, but not in anything I could lay my hands on...

Grey Wolf

I doubt A Russian dynasty could ever happen in China, given the fact that China was highly Xenophobic at the time.

By a long term conflict I wasn't neccesarily referring to a single sustained war, more like the Franco-Habsburg conflicts, a mixture of diplomatic maneuvering and occasional wars. I assume that would also lead to earlier efforts in settling and developing Siberia, particularly as until well into the 19th century Russian control of many areas of Siberia was in name only. It would be a more inward focused Russia really, caring more about centralising and developing their eastern possessions than about European affairs.

Chengar Qordath said:

I doubt A Russian dynasty could ever happen in China, given the fact that China was highly Xenophobic at the time.

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Hmmm, but the Manchu were not Chinese...

Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf said:

OK, its...15 years since I studied the history of the Golden Horde but I was under the impression that the remnant continued to call itself by that name into the eighteenth century ? Obviously, I could be wrong. I keep wondering whether I should get out my university notes one day. Much of what we learnt was from direct translations by our tutor so doesn't exist elsewhere; well I suppose some of it does now, but not in anything I could lay my hands on...

Grey Wolf

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No, at the beginning of 16th century the Crimean Tatars conquered the last of the Golden Horde. Crimean Tatars are Turks, and were in fact vassals of the Ottomans. They were destroyed once and for all by Catherine II, blessed be her name.

Chengar Qordath said:

I doubt A Russian dynasty could ever happen in China, given the fact that China was highly Xenophobic at the time.

By a long term conflict I wasn't neccesarily referring to a single sustained war, more like the Franco-Habsburg conflicts, a mixture of diplomatic maneuvering and occasional wars. I assume that would also lead to earlier efforts in settling and developing Siberia, particularly as until well into the 19th century Russian control of many areas of Siberia was in name only. It would be a more inward focused Russia really, caring more about centralising and developing their eastern possessions than about European affairs.

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I was going to mention that, but Grey Wolf beat me to it. That I thought of a 'Russian Dynasty' is precisely because the Manchus were not Chinese at the time, either.

Regarding conflict, no form of conflict with China would be feasible until as I said Siberia is Russian in more than just name. You can't exert diplomatic or commercial pressure when your presence consist of two forts and a trading post, after all.

That does mean my idea of a Russian dynasty is, as I said, highly unfeasible. But it has its points of interests. Such an Empire would dominate the Eurasian landmass, well, always supposing it manages to keep internal peace. The only drawback I can see is that Russian culture will become highly sinicised...

Well, although the fact that the Manchus were indeed not Chinese is a good point, I'd say the difference between a Manchu dynasty and a Russian one is very substantial. A Russian dynasty would likely face domestic problems far far worse than any the Manchu faced. I guess if you want an analogy, it would be like the difference between the Hundred Years War trying to install a Turkish king in France, as opposed to an English one.

I suppose a more Eastern-focused Russia would likely be devoting much more attention to expanding their power base in Siberia before they got around to having any conflicts with China. Conflict with China is likely a more long-term event, while in the shorter term they would focus on firming up their control over Siberia and perhaps also seeking to develop it more. Maybe they even try to attract settlers from other nations to Siberia, using the promise of cheap farming land much as the US did in OTL.

There was quite a lot of iner-marriage between various ethnic groups within the Russian Empire. Perhaps a cadet line of the Romanovs marries into a Chinese or Mongolian or even Manchu aristocratic line and produces a merged dynasty to rule China ?

That would certainly add spice and intrigue to developing this as a detailed timeline

Grey Wolf

Chengar Qordath said:

Well, although the fact that the Manchus were indeed not Chinese is a good point, I'd say the difference between a Manchu dynasty and a Russian one is very substantial. A Russian dynasty would likely face domestic problems far far worse than any the Manchu faced. I guess if you want an analogy, it would be like the difference between the Hundred Years War trying to install a Turkish king in France, as opposed to an English one.

I suppose a more Eastern-focused Russia would likely be devoting much more attention to expanding their power base in Siberia before they got around to having any conflicts with China. Conflict with China is likely a more long-term event, while in the shorter term they would focus on firming up their control over Siberia and perhaps also seeking to develop it more. Maybe they even try to attract settlers from other nations to Siberia, using the promise of cheap farming land much as the US did in OTL.

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You underestimated the problems the Manchus faced. Just trying to get the Han to wear queues resulted in large scale rebellions which saw hundreds of thousands dead. Sichuan province was almost depopulated, and that's a mountainous area the size of France and Germany combined. The Russians may look a bit different, but then again they were not traditional vassals of China, neither were they a hated 'barbarian' race (the Manchus are descended from the Jurchens, who dominated North China during the later Song dynasty).

Religion might be a stumbling point, but not for the Chinese - they were traditionally rather areligious, and as long as we don't do something boneheaded like forbidding ancestor worship and desecrate all the tombs, they'd probably start cheerfully going to church. It's just another temple to them. And if Russia, like the Manchus, use the already extent scholar and gentry class (which all protests to the contrary acquiesced rather quickly to Manchu rule by and large), it is by no means impossible.

Russians are no strangers in adapting to local practises, either. After all, Moscovy was built upon the ruins of the Khanates, and we all know about Ivan the Terrible.

As to possible powerbase Western Siberia centred around Omsk and Novosibirsk might be a good place. Enough resources to power a medium-sized industrial revolution (and did, in our world), access to valuable furs, central location for trade and keeping the pressure up on the Central Asian khanates, close enough to the Volga and the plains beyond so that settlement is at least plausible, and so on, with an option to expend toward Baykal later on.

Grey Wolf said:

There was quite a lot of iner-marriage between various ethnic groups within the Russian Empire. Perhaps a cadet line of the Romanovs marries into a Chinese or Mongolian or even Manchu aristocratic line and produces a merged dynasty to rule China ?

That would certainly add spice and intrigue to developing this as a detailed timeline

Grey Wolf

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Dammit, Grey Wolf, do you have to keep stealing my ideas before I post them?

I'm quite aware of the problems the Manchu dynasty had to deal with, my inclination would be to think that a Russian dynasty would face much greater difficulties. My limited understanding of Chinese culture in the 18th century would indicate that they would view the Russians as being not even being completely Human. They wouldn't have the same history of local conflict as they did with the Manchus, but I'd imagine the cultural misunderstandings would be much worse. I won't say it couldn't happen, but I think it would be very difficult to pull off and maintain.

Chengar Qordath said:

I'm quite aware of the problems the Manchu dynasty had to deal with, my inclination would be to think that a Russian dynasty would face much greater difficulties. My limited understanding of Chinese culture in the 18th century would indicate that they would view the Russians as being not even being completely Human. They wouldn't have the same history of local conflict as they did with the Manchus, but I'd imagine the cultural misunderstandings would be much worse. I won't say it couldn't happen, but I think it would be very difficult to pull off and maintain.

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Xenophobia towards European started in strength after the major European incursions into China. Back in the eighteenth century the Jesuits were having a relatively good time in China (well, er, obviously before the Rits controversy, and that one was started by the Catholic Church), and some of them even held high government office (Matteo Ricci, Von Bell, Verbiest, and so on).

NFR said:

Xenophobia towards European started in strength after the major European incursions into China. Back in the eighteenth century the Jesuits were having a relatively good time in China (well, er, obviously before the Rits controversy, and that one was started by the Catholic Church), and some of them even held high government office (Matteo Ricci, Von Bell, Verbiest, and so on).

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Ah, that's a good point. There's still a big difference between a few Jesuits in government offices and a Russian on the Imperial throne though. I'd think that there would at least be a somewhat difficult adjustment period...

Chengar Qordath said:

Ah, that's a good point. There's still a big difference between a few Jesuits in government offices and a Russian on the Imperial throne though. I'd think that there would at least be a somewhat difficult adjustment period...

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Sure, and the Manchus took about fourty years before they really consolidated their control in China, too, from the capture of Beijing in 1644 to the end of the revolt of the three feudatories in 1681. I said from the start it's going to be difficult.

Grey Wolf said:

OTL Peter The Great decided that Russia should be a European power and not an Asiatic one. The struggle with China was also curtailed by the process towards and the completion of the Kiakhta Treaty.

How about in ATL Russia does not go along this route - either route. If Russia remains an Asiatic-focused power with a presence in Europe, what then ? Without a Kiakhta Treaty would Russia and China spend most of the next 100 years vying for supremacy ?

How would this affect the long-term direction and development of Russia ? Would Central Asia remain independent or fall within another orbit, if Russian energies once directed East remain in that direction ?

Grey Wolf

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I tend to think that the situation in Europe would always be more pressing and would divert Russian attention back West even if there was a desire to focus on the East.

By way of example, the Ottomans wanted to take out Persia, which was richer and easier to dominate, but always ended up expending all their attention and resources fighting the Hapsburgs over poor scraps of Hungary.

Concerted effort in the east by Russia would require Europe to be a much less turbulent place. Also, without Westernization, it doesn't seem likely that Russia would have much potential against China in the first place.

Abdul Hadi Pasha said:

I tend to think that the situation in Europe would always be more pressing and would divert Russian attention back West even if there was a desire to focus on the East.

By way of example, the Ottomans wanted to take out Persia, which was richer and easier to dominate, but always ended up expending all their attention and resources fighting the Hapsburgs over poor scraps of Hungary.

Concerted effort in the east by Russia would require Europe to be a much less turbulent place. Also, without Westernization, it doesn't seem likely that Russia would have much potential against China in the first place.

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Yeah but that doesn't do much for alternate history !

Maybe delay the Livonian War, delete Nerchinsk and have Russia send the army to the Amur that the man on the spot there expected and which was initially favourably received as a suggestion at Moscow. Get Russia into a war with the Manchu just as they are getting deeply involved in China, and then extend the war one way or another...

Russia was getting contact with the West via the (British) Royal Muscovy Company and also via the Dutch through the city on the White Sea that would later become Archangelsk. For quite a while this was the main point of contact and the main trade exchange.

We see in history intelligent rulers who see where the main focus ought to be - eg Ivan IV, Michael Romanov and Peter The Great with European affairs. But history is also full of people who lead their countries into wars with powers they could have remained at peace with, and who don't see their nation's best interests.

For example, if Ivan IV had not killed his son Ivan in a fit of rage, would Ivan V have been as clever in international affairs as Boris Gudunov ? Would he perhaps have set Russia on an entirely different course ?

And what if Sophia had defeated Peter The Great (of course in an ATL different from the above as they can't co-exist), what would she have focused upon ?

I think there is sufficient scope for a Tsar (or female occupant of the throne, even if as Regent only) to make completely different decisions

Grey Wolf