As for the American Revolution, unless if there was an earlier POD, I don't think it would have started any earlier as nobody seriously discussed independence from Britain until 1775-6. It also depends on what happens to Lord North. But such a war would also blow a big gaping hole in the "France won't dare intervene in our colonial affairs" theory. The ARW might be avoided altogether when calls for representation comes around.
Okay, some thoughts.
First, despite the appearance of strength from Britain's victory in 1763, Britain was fairly weak in the 1770s. A few incidents illustrate this:
- Corsica. The island's purchase shocked Britain, because, as Lord Shelburne noted, "Corsica "must be a great accession to that kingdom, not only of commerce, but of strength, by affording the goodness of some of its ports, the greatest advantages for annoying our Italian and Levant trade in time of war."
Why the Corsican fiasco? Britain was distracted by the consequences of the Townshend Act. But this went further; Britain thought France should be appeased over Corsica to concentrate on the thirteen colonies.
- Scandinavia. In September of 1770 the Danish Chief minister was deposed in a palace revolution, and replaced with the Pro-French Count Struensee. This would have been bad. But George III's sister, Caroline Mathilda, was having an affair with him. So the overthrow of Struensee in 1772 by a court cabal created new problems, because the sister of the king of england was threatened with execution for treason and adultery. To prtoct the lover of a pro-French minister from the wrath of Britian's natural allies, a naval demonstration was sent to intimidate the Danish. [1] This didn't win friends.
Meanwhile, in Sweden in 1772, Gustavus launched a coup d'etat with French support to impose royal absolutism. The Russian response was to threaten an invasion of Finland, or even an amphibious assault on Scania istself. France, in response, threatened to attack the Russian Mediterranean squadron.
Thus, Britain's Swedish and Danish allies were less than friendly.
- Poland. In August of 1772, Russia, Prussia, and Austria each grabbed a slice of the Commonwealth of Poland, and Britain's response was silence. In the 1730s, British public opinion had been sharply divided about whether Britian should enter the Austrians side in the War of Polish Succession. Forty years later, several million people had hcanged hands almost noiselessly. But the Britishg overnment, even if it would have intervened, would not known who to back. Some would have baked Austria,b ut doing so would have jepeordized Hanover. And as Walpole observed, "the fleet being so formidable, I suppose, will be towed overladn to Warsaw to restore the Polish constitution and their King."
As a sign of British tunnel vision, Britons also saw France at work in the partition, even though it had tried to vigorously oppose it.
- Lorraine & the Barrier Forts. Lorraine's acquisition came via peacecuful annexation, but only strengthened French power. In part because of British weakness, Austria and France began negotiating a deal where the French would get Ypres or Furnes in return for supporting the opening of the Schelde, which would cripple Britain's ally the Netherlands. This didn't go anywhere, but it illustrates Britain's continental weakness.
So, turning to the Falklands themselves. London was convinced that the Spanish were ejected at the direction of the French Minister Choiseul, and so Britain mounted a nvaval demonstration in response, particularly in the Mediterranean. Britain's response was so much greater than Spain's, however, that it encouraged the British government to take a jingoistic "UK! UK! UK!" line, with speeches agbout conquering the Americas and how awesome we all are. Indeed, the opposition was so pro-war that it restricted Britain's ability to maneuver.
Why did anybody even care about the Falklands? While they were barren desolate rocks, the Falklands were perceived as a staging post for a British drive into the Pacific.
The American colonial reaction is actually going to be pretty significant and complicated; I'm running out the door so I'll comment later.
[1] and the bagels.