WI: German Government Supports Merchent Subs

In 1916, a group of private investors, with support from the Deustche Bank and Deutsche Ozean-Reederei, began construction of numerous merchant submarines. These submarines would go under the naval blockade of the North Sea by Britain, and conduct trade between the United States and Germany. The British had no idea how to counter this, and the United States rejected arguments against them since they were unarmed vessels that sailed for peaceful purposes. Only two were finished by February, at which time those finished and being finished were commandeered by the government, and converted to military use.


However, what if the investors instead propose the policy to the government, rather than trying to go out on their own? They make the argument that merchant submarines would be able to neutralize the effect of the British blockade. In order to make this policy effective, however, they must agree to only sink those vessels flying the flags of enemy combatants, whereas the destruction of neutral shipping would undermine relations with Germany's major trade partners. By the end of the year you might have eight merchant submarines running between the United States and Germany (if the government agrees), with dozens more being constructed.


Is this possible, and how would this have affected the war?



Links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchant_submarine
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_submarine_Deutschland
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_submarine_Bremen
 
Unrestricted Submarine Smuggiling?

In 1916, a group of private investors, with support from the Deustche Bank and Deutsche Ozean-Reederei, began construction of numerous merchant submarines. These submarines would go under the naval blockade of the North Sea by Britain, and conduct trade between the United States and Germany. The British had no idea how to counter this, and the United States rejected arguments against them since they were unarmed vessels that sailed for peaceful purposes. Only two were finished by February, at which time those finished and being finished were commandeered by the government, and converted to military use.


However, what if the investors instead propose the policy to the government, rather than trying to go out on their own? They make the argument that merchant submarines would be able to neutralize the effect of the British blockade. In order to make this policy effective, however, they must agree to only sink those vessels flying the flags of enemy combatants, whereas the destruction of neutral shipping would undermine relations with Germany's major trade partners. By the end of the year you might have eight merchant submarines running between the United States and Germany (if the government agrees), with dozens more being constructed.


Is this possible, and how would this have affected the war?



Links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchant_submarine
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_submarine_Deutschland
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_submarine_Bremen

I have the same idea(but that was only one thing who i read today form a old book in my universirty), that is interesting, because without RADAR.. CHASING SUBMARINE IS HARD, and with having the same submarine technology without weapon, we can see an advance in snorkel and maybe conservarion technology?(for keep meat and another goods freshs)

and with this, unlike USW, that will make some straits in the anglo-USA relation.

(check this topic : https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=159462
for more info)

i don't little here, but i think people like IBC,the red, rast, Tom B1 can help me and said something like its: If the german change for war to trade war, that will make tension between USA and the Entente, the USS(Unrestricted Submarine Smuggling) will be look like the only way than the straved german are try to survive and with a unlegal blockade against american goods.... maybe that doens't means a CP USA but a very pro-CP one, and when in the 1917 the english need for money for the last year... well maybe a negotiated peace?.

well, expect for more information, thanks for the topic

Att

Nivek von Beldo
 
To little, to late and the UK.

The problem is the subs could only carry what a few thousand tons of material? Germany needed huge amounts of stuff to replace lost pre-war trade.

Second the UK made a point to buy up materials and people that didn't play ball were black listed by London. No orders to UK / France and no access to UK flagged shipping. These would be death sentences to most companies as no way the Germans can build enough U-merchant cruisers to compete.

The Germans start building this 1914 and in huge numbers, then maybe perhaps, could be that they can import enough stuff to matter but food was the most critical item in the end for home front moral. You would need to also avoid USW all together to allow food to trickle in as that being banned was the result of the first USW bout in 1915.

Michael
 
To little, to late and the UK.

The problem is the subs could only carry what a few thousand tons of material? Germany needed huge amounts of stuff to replace lost pre-war trade.

Second the UK made a point to buy up materials and people that didn't play ball were black listed by London. No orders to UK / France and no access to UK flagged shipping. These would be death sentences to most companies as no way the Germans can build enough U-merchant cruisers to compete.

The Germans start building this 1914 and in huge numbers, then maybe perhaps, could be that they can import enough stuff to matter but food was the most critical item in the end for home front moral. You would need to also avoid USW all together to allow food to trickle in as that being banned was the result of the first USW bout in 1915.

Michael


The first journey of the submarine Deustchland apparently brought back enough material for the war industry to operate for several months. As for the USW..........they may decide to abandon it entirely in return for being able to import food from the United States now that they have the ability to do so.
 
The first journey of the submarine Deustchland apparently brought back enough material for the war industry to operate for several months. As for the USW..........they may decide to abandon it entirely in return for being able to import food from the United States now that they have the ability to do so.

Even less capacity then I thought.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_submarine_Deutschland

Germany needed thousands of tons of metals not a few hundred and it did nothing for the food situation.

Michael
 
It seems like if they used the limited cargo space correctly, the Germans could potentially extend the war months possibly even a year. Needed chemicals for fertilizer and medical supplies could keep the population from revolting as soon.

Trade with the USA could keep them out of the war. Merchants would be upset over severing ties with a country they trade with. I believe that American involvement shortened the war.

The end result would be the same though. Germany loses the war. In the months of extra fighting hundreds of thousands of people die on both sides.
 

Deleted member 1487

It seems like if they used the limited cargo space correctly, the Germans could potentially extend the war months possibly even a year. Needed chemicals for fertilizer and medical supplies could keep the population from revolting as soon.

Trade with the USA could keep them out of the war. Merchants would be upset over severing ties with a country they trade with. I believe that American involvement shortened the war.

The end result would be the same though. Germany loses the war. In the months of extra fighting hundreds of thousands of people die on both sides.

Mayhaps, mayhaps not. The non-entry of the US would prevent Germany from losing and the Entente from winning, but would not allow a German victory. Much more likely is a negotiated peace due to the changing in loan policy from the US which occurred in 1917. Also, with this relief from the blockade, slight though it might be, there would be far less willingness to go for the unrestricted blockade, as the Germans would realize that this means their trade source is cut off and the US would enter, making the blockade worse. So with this minor trade going on, the US would have even less reason to coddle the Entente, perhaps leading to a show down on neutral rights in 1917 without the Germans declaring defacto war. Add to that the financing issues that would cripple the Entente war effort and the Entente is no longer able to win. Neither is Germany, but the war ends much more favorably for her.

That all assumes the merchant subs are produced early with government sanction, replacing the cruiser subs and much of the OTL sub production. It is not a great solution, but it helps ease the major material shortages that crippled Germany late in the war. It also ties the US to the Germans that much more economically, making the US less willing to put up with the Entente and their blockade, including its methods like black listing 'uncooperative' businesses.

This may mean a better equipped German army from 1915 on, though not by so much as to make a major difference. It could change things politically though, perhaps making Falkenhayn survive in OHL, which would radically change things, as he was significantly more pro-peace and anti-annexations (at least in the East).

Edit: It looks like there was about a 6 week total travel time, including loading and unloading per sub. This means 8 trips a year with a few weeks remainder. 750 tons of cargo per sub is not too bad especially if it is used for the really hard to find metals like copper and aluminum, or nitrates. The article about the Deutschland indicates that there was a plan by Simon Lake (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Lake) to build some cargo subs for the Germans, which never came to anything, possibly because of the loss of the Bremen, which carried the financing for the construction of these subs. Had that happened, much the same way the British built ships for the Confederacy during the Civil War, Germany would have double the production capacity, perhaps having over 100 by 1916. At 700-750 tons of cargo per run, the Germans could have subverted the blockade to an appreciable degree. The truly rare and important war materials would be available in the quantities needed, but obviously the more useful things like food, munitions, and weapons would probably not be traded, as transport would be inefficent.

Of course, like I said, this would all need to be anticipated pre-war and focussed on by the navy, which is not likely to spend its limited budget on these kinds of subs. I wonder how the British would react to the news about these subs being built pre-war. The Germans did not stockpile resources for a blockade pre-war for fear of increasing tensions, so these kinds of subs would have to be kept secret, or Germany would just not have to care about foreign opinions and also start hoarding important resources like nitrates and various metals. This would also mean that the subs could not be used for warfare purposes, as the materials going to build these would come out of resources available for fighting subs.
 
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I completely agree with Wiking. Such a sub-campaign might have been more beneficial than building fighting subs.

In a war in which Germany was crap at PR, this would have been an excellent campaign at home and in neutral states.

No Lusitania.

Instead...unarmed German heroes crossing the Ocean trying to keep their country fed (there will always be exotic American foodstuff on board, just for the good pictures), chased by the gigantic, evil Royal Navy. :cool: Jawoll, Herr Kaleun!

Fewer German-American tensions due to the submarine warfare, instead a more critical eye on the blockade.

No German fear of American intervention, thus no Zimmermann telegram.

All this makes an American entry very unlikely. And this is worth many, many tons of material...
 

loughery111

Banned
Would have had to happen much earlier than Deutschland was used OTL, to keep the submarine warfare from occurring as well. As long as submarine warfare resulted in American citizens being killed somewhere in the Atlantic, America was probably going to become involved eventually, and at least would have maintained its OTL pro-Allied neutrality until war's end. Also, I don't think war material would have helped extend the war by much. It was the shortage of food and consumer goods that brought Germany down in the end when its populace simply got sick of fighting a neverending war, or at least that's how I understood it. Those are simply too bulky to import from the US via submarine.

Also, what exactly did the Germans have that they could spare from the war effort to sell us in 1916? I'm not really sure they could have economically sold us anything we couldn't have produced ourselves for less at that point, simply due to the shipping costs involved in this mode of transportation. I don't know what their bullion reserves looked like in this time period, either. I doubt they maintained a large enough stockpile of gold and silver to fund years of trade in expensive war materials like nitrates, though.
 
Would have had to happen much earlier than Deutschland was used OTL, to keep the submarine warfare from occurring as well. As long as submarine warfare resulted in American citizens being killed somewhere in the Atlantic, America was probably going to become involved eventually, and at least would have maintained its OTL pro-Allied neutrality until war's end. Also, I don't think war material would have helped extend the war by much. It was the shortage of food and consumer goods that brought Germany down in the end when its populace simply got sick of fighting a neverending war, or at least that's how I understood it. Those are simply too bulky to import from the US via submarine.

If they planned it out right they wouldn't be importing food but rather material needed to produce their own food. Germany would most likely request chemical fertilizer to speed up the growth of their crops. Of course even if the space on the ship were to be used 100% on this it wouldn't be enough to extend it more than a year. And lets be honest it wouldn't be 100% efficient. These ships were made by private companies and there is a good chance some of the space would be filled with luxuries for the German elite.

Having only merchant subs wouldn't be a wise choice. Attack subs had a chance at winning the war for Germany. Merchant subs could only delay the inevitable. Besides, how long would it be before the British devised a way to stop these subs?

America would most likely enter the war on the British/French side at some point. It may take longer and the troops may see even less action than in our timeline. The end result it that America could only do so much business with the Germans. With the massive amount of money coming in from Britain and France it would be in Americas best interest for Germany to lose the war. Otherwise the money they were paid in would become worthless.
 
Would have had to happen much earlier than Deutschland was used OTL, to keep the submarine warfare from occurring as well. As long as submarine warfare resulted in American citizens being killed somewhere in the Atlantic, America was probably going to become involved eventually,


Actually it was the sinking of American ships in Feb/Mar 1917 which made the crucial difference. Hitherto, all American fatalities had been travellers on Allied vessels, which, while distressing, was not generally seen as ground for war. Even right after the Lusitania sinking, with public horror at its peak, President Wilson got visited by a deputation of Congressional leaders (including the Speaker of the House) who warned him that a declaration of war was out of the question.

Wilson himself seems to have come to much the same conclusion. Iirc he told Colonel House in 1916 that he did not believe Americans would be willing to go to war, no matter how many were killed on Allied vessels. "I regret that, but I believe it is true".

and at least would have maintained its OTL pro-Allied neutrality until war's end.

Actually, US neutrality was getting a good deal less pro-Allied. Relations were very strained due to British blacklisting of American firms considered insufficiently co-operative with Allied blockade measures. In September 1916, Wilson obtained from Congress extensive powers to retaliate against countries behaving in this way, though indicating that he would not consider using them until after his contemplated peace notes, if these were to fail.

Luckily for the Allies, on Jan 31 Germany rendered the whole question moot by announcing USW, so that from now on America's own ships (not foreign ones) were fair game for the u-boats. Several were indeed sunk in March. Thus, for all practical purposes, Germany was already waging war against the US, and there could only be one outcome - though a certain telegram to Mexico may have speeded thing up a tad.

Ironically, had the Germans waited, financial problems, and possible sanctions over the blacklist question, would have reduced Allied imports to a far greater degree than even the most successful u-boat campaign could ever have done.

Further thought. Had US neutrlity continued, might America herself have built a few merchant subs - or possibly airships that could fly above the "ceiling" of Allied fighters?
 
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Deleted member 1487

Further thought. Had US neutrlity continued, might America herself have built a few merchant subs - or possibly airships that could fly above the "ceiling" of Allied fighters?

This is the most interesting question. I doubt the airship would matter, as it could not carry the necessary load to make it worthwhile. But the US could, and private companies did, offer to make merchant subs. Especially if the German got started earlier in the war, when there was less anger about ship sinking, the US would definitely have the same reaction that they did to the Deutschland: the ship would be celebrated and the government would classify it as a trade vessel, not a war machine subject to international prohibitions. The British would piss and moan, but the US of course could cite the British building war ships for the Confederacy during the US blockade of the South as precedent.

Imagine the effect of the US helping build up the German fleet, the German ship yards could make both war and merchant subs, while the US capacity would have been dedicated to peaceful merchant purposes. At the same time, I am sure the government would look at the situation as merely a way to thumb their nose at the British without coming to blows over the blockade without actually assisting the German war effort in the manner they subsidized the Entente. It also allows the blacklisted American companies war trade with someone.

700-750 tons of materials a run per sub, with over 100 subs, at about 6-8 runs a year, and that is nothing to sneeze at (conservatively at least 500,000 tons a year). While no where near the trade that the Entente is getting, every ton is a ton more than Germany had OTL.
 
And far more that the British and French are getting because German u-boats aren't sinking Allied shipping so a net gain for the Allies, not the Germans.

Neither is there any chance of US companies building ships for Germany in WWI.
 
And far more that the British and French are getting because German u-boats aren't sinking Allied shipping so a net gain for the Allies, not the Germans.

Until you factor in the reduction in imports due to no unsecured loans from the US - which is presumably still neutral, otherwise the merchant subs have nowhere to go.


Neither is there any chance of US companies building ships for Germany in WWI.

As a neutral, the US couldn't build warships for a belligerant. I'm not sure what the position was about merchantmen.

In any case, though, I had in mind that they would be American merchant subs, not built for Germany - though they would be for trade with her or with neutrals adjoining her.
 
This is the most interesting question. I doubt the airship would matter, as it could not carry the necessary load to make it worthwhile.


It could carry mail.

This was another big American gripe against the Allies. British blockade ships had a habit of taking off mail addressed to destinations in the Central Powers - or even in neighbouring neutrals. This was really unpopular. Even the pro-Allied TR objected, saying that as President he would have sent mails across the Atlantic on US warships, or else on merchantmen under US Naval escort. Whether he really meant it, or it was jsut anger talking, I can't say, but it shows how people felt.
 

Deleted member 1487

As a neutral, the US couldn't build warships for a belligerant. I'm not sure what the position was about merchantmen.

In any case, though, I had in mind that they would be American merchant subs, not built for Germany - though they would be for trade with her or with neutrals adjoining her.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_submarine_Deutschland
"Britain and France soon protested against the use of submarines as merchant ships, arguing that they could not be stopped and inspected for munitions in the same manner as other cargo vessels. The US, under diplomatic pressure for supposedly showing favoritism while having declared itself neutral, rejected the argument. Even submarines, as long as they were unarmed, were to be regarded as merchant vessels and accordingly would be permitted to trade.[2]"

Also from an earlier post:
"The article about the Deutschland indicates that there was a plan by Simon Lake (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon_Lake) to build some cargo subs for the Germans, which never came to anything, possibly because of the loss of the Bremen, which carried the financing for the construction of these subs."
 
What could Britain and France do to stop US from manufacturing subs for Germany? They couldn't send troops to invade. They couldn't place an embargo on US supplies. Realistically I don't see anything beyond finger wagging.
 
I think the merchant submarine idea, while interesting, is another example of German overengineering that they have always demonstrated. Its the same trait that had them building high quality tanks in WWII when they really needed quantity - or at least the option of switching easily between the two.
 
Mikestone8, what is your basis for American businesses suddenly not offering the Allies loans?

Also, since when it came to unsecured loans never repaid Germany was an even greater offender, and since Germany wants loans to pay for the ships as well...

The question of Germany's capacity to produce so many large subs and what other needs are not met instead has not been answered.

The question of American private business being able to design and build so many large subs, completely useless for trade with any other nation and with any nation at all once the war ends, has not been answered.

The question of American private businesses being willing to utterly destroy their trade with the Allies indefinitely in return for a much more limited trade which can't even start until the submarine merchants are completed has not been answered. And how many of those businesses are totally insulated in terms of no vital partners or associates not being willing to dispense with trading with the Allies?
 
Mikestone8, what is your basis for American businesses suddenly not offering the Allies loans?

The Banks told the government point blank in 1917 that unless the Treasury agreed to underwrite the British - French Loans that there would be no more.

Mikestone8, what is your basis for American Also, since when it came to unsecured loans never repaid Germany was an even greater offender, and since Germany wants loans to pay for the ships as well...

I am not following you here. Germany took out one loan for... 10 million in 1914 from the US market. It was a 9 month loan and repaid it at the end of the term.

See NY Times archives key details can be found in the online archives.

Michael
 
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