Rump Second Reich: WI Germany was only Northern Germany?

maverick

Banned
The idea of this WI is simply...what if German Unification had 'stopped' before 1870?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_German_Confederation

germany1867.GIF


In this Scenario, unified Germany is the yellow nation, and it'd be referred to as Germany, the German Reich or the North German Confederation...but...

Would the Prussians stop there and then had Napoleon III not forced the Diplomatic crisis of 1870 and the Ems dispatch rift?

Would this country change its name to Second Reich even if it technically didn't unify all of Germany? Would it be considered as THE German State?

And How would the situation develop without a Franco-Prussian war in 1870?

As AH.commers there's two ways of seeing German Unification (beyond the debate whether it was inevitable)...either Bismarck was an evil Genius who planned the entirety of the Decade of the 1860s as a massive evil plan to unify Germany, or he played with Diplomacy to sidetrack Denmark and Austria, but what happened with France was the doing of Napoleon III being way too aggressive.

So lets us assume that, as a basic POD that either Napoleon III slips in the tub and cracks open his skull, or that Leopold von Hohenzollern Sigmarinen, the Prussian Candidate for the Spanish throne, falls from his horse and breaks his neck, in either case, before the crisis in 1870...


Thoughts, idea, commentaries?
 

Readman

Immedieley one thing jumps out at me, is that theres no WW1, at least I don't think there will be one
 

Susano

Banned
Zimmerwald1915 said:
Really, I would think the "one thing" jumping out at you would be Susano.
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*jumps out of shadows at Readman, tears off his face*

Ehem... ;)
Anyways, theres quite obviously no reason why the following decades should be any less, err, militant than IOTL, so the chances for a general European war I would say are as high as IOTL. After all, the NGC would be a Great Power in itself (since Prussia alone already was considered one), and even if that were not so, the tensions would just be between other powers!

I think without 1870, the NGC might persist for quite some time - however, there are other events that will lead to, ah, overcoming political inertia. IOTL that was the Franco-German War, but without that there is the planned revision of the Prussian constitution, or the death of William I., with his successor Frederick III already being sufficiently nationalist, and if hes not terminally ill as IOTL also sure to get rid of Bismarck as chancllor...
 

maverick

Banned
So we can assume that Germany* would annex the Southern German States one by one over the course of the decades, although presumably not Bavaria or any random state where the Austrians or French can keep a friendly government.

There's also the chance of a European war followed by unification, I guess...
 

Falastur

maverick said:
So we can assume that Germany* would annex the Southern German States one by one over the course of the decades, although presumably not Bavaria or any random state where the Austrians or French can keep a friendly government.

There's also the chance of a European war followed by unification, I guess...
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I think the OP's idea is to examine what would happen if the NGC conspicuously refused to annex the rest of Germany - either by choice or by circumstance - and was forever limited to the southern border shown in the image.
 

Susano

Banned
Falastur said:
I think the OP's idea is to examine what would happen if the NGC conspicuously refused to annex the rest of Germany - either by choice or by circumstance - and was forever limited to the southern border shown in the image.
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Dude, look again, that IS the OP :p And there really is no "forever" in history...

Now, I dont think the NGC can simply go absorbing one state after the next. Baden did apply to join in 1869 and actually got turned down. So, we need an event where people think again about the whole NGC concept itself - as said, that could be the debatte about the Prussian constitution ("why not make something pna-German out of this?") or a national-liberal Prussian King/NGC Presidium. And if we have such an event, things could happen pretty fast (or alternative fail to get actual results, of course)...
 

Nietzsche

Banned
*ahem*

The name 'North German Confederation' is lip-service. It will informally, undoubtedly, be referred to as 'Prussia'.
 

Mikestone8

Could make for worse relations between Austria and Prussia. As long as the South remains separate from the North, Franz Josef (who felt 1866 as a dep humiliation) may still entertain hopes of reasserting Austrian influence in Germany.

1877/8 could get interesting. France (now under a young Napoleon IV) still thinks of itself as the premier European power, and is likely to play a much more active role. question is, on which side? If the young Emperor sides with Britain, then he is also allied with Austria-Hungary, which could tempt Franz Josef into seeking revenge on Prussia. If he takes the Russian side, then Prussia could be on the spot. Bismarck won't want to fight both France and Russia (Britain wouldn't be much use on land as an ally) but will also be unwilling to let the Habsburg Empire collapse. Being "honest broker" could become a lot harder. Things could get exciting.
 

Monty Burns

Mikestone8 said:
Could make for worse relations between Austria and Prussia. As long as the South remains separate from the North, Franz Josef (who felt 1866 as a dep humiliation) may still entertain hopes of reasserting Austrian influence in Germany.
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I always thought it to be an interesting timeline where the NGC is in a state of cold war/colonial race/armament race with some Southern German Confederation consisting of Austra-Hungary, Bavaria, Badenia and Wurttemberg...
 

Mikestone8

Monty Burns said:
I always thought it to be an interesting timeline where the NGC is in a state of cold war/colonial race/armament race with some Southern German Confederation consisting of Austra-Hungary, Bavaria, Badenia and Wurttemberg...
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Iirc, after 1866 there was meant to be a South German Confederation, led by Bavaria, alongside the North German one and Austria. However, Baden and Wurttemburg didn't fancy Bavarian domination any better than Prussian, so it never got set up.

The best opportunity for something like this is if Prussia starts a war with somebody. In that case, her treaties of alliance with the southern states do not apply, so the latter can remain neutral or even, at some point, join the anti-Prussian side. However, Bismarck can see that as clearly as myself, and I'm sure will be careful to avoid the trap. As in 1870, if he wishes to fight he will try and tempt the enemy into declaring war on him, rather than vice versa - unless he has enough reliable allies that it doesn't really matter.
 

Susano

Banned
Mikestone8 said:
The best opportunity for something like this is if Prussia starts a war with somebody. In that case, her treaties of alliance with the southern states do not apply, so the latter can remain neutral or even, at some point, join the anti-Prussian side. However, Bismarck can see that as clearly as myself, and I'm sure will be careful to avoid the trap. As in 1870, if he wishes to fight he will try and tempt the enemy into declaring war on him, rather than vice versa - unless he has enough reliable allies that it doesn't really matter.
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Treaties are just scraps of paper, often. What made the southern three states honour their treaties with Prussia was the massive pressure from the population to do so, and you can be sure that will materialise nevermind the technicalities of who declared war on whom.

And in 1870 Bismarck very much did not want to fight.
 

Faeelin

Banned
Hrm. Consider where we are in 1870. The North German Confederation contains some 29 million souls. The southern states are members of a Zollverein with the North German Federation, 8.5 million strong. Prussia has ninety percent of the production in mining and metallurgy, half the output in textiles, and two-thirds of all workers employed in the core industries in Germany. Departing form ties with North Germany would be economic suicide. The Zollverein contained representatives appointed by princes at its council, and a lower house elected by popular vote. Baden, under its liberal Duke, had tried to join the North German Confederation.

Okay, the Luxembourg Crisis illustrated some flaws. When Napoleon blundered into the negotiation with the King of Holland over the purchase of Luxembourg, he immediately unleashed a storm of indignation in Germany, which was adroitly exploited by Bismarck. Under treaties with Prussia after 1866, the south German states increasingly aligned theirmilitary forces along the Prussian model. On the other hand, Bavaria and Württemberg had in this crisis not been willing unreservedly to commit themselves to war alongside Prussia. The alignment of the South German with the Prussian armed forces met much resistance and in many quarters a militia on the Swiss model would have been preferred. The demands of military service on the Prussian model and high military expenditure were factors feeding the antiPrussian sentiment in the south.

So, come 1877, when the Zollverein's Constitution is being renegotiated, what's going to happen? Inertia doesn't seem likely.
 

Mikestone8

Faeelin said:
So, come 1877, when the Zollverein's Constitution is being renegotiated, what's going to happen? Inertia doesn't seem likely.
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The Balkan crisis is going to happen, and as I said earlier, much less likely than OTL to be settled peacefully.

But Bismarck is well and truly on the spot. If he goes with Austria and Britain, he risks a two-front war. If with Russia, that means the collapse of Austria-Hungary and presumably (where else can they go?) the absorption of at least its western provinces, which he believed would undermine Prussian ascendancy in Germany. He'll be one very unhappy bunny.

In either case, I am assuming that France will be on the anti-Prussian side, unless Napoleon IV is a lot more pro-Prussian than I take him to be.
 
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