A Cat of a Different Color: China After Mao

[stevep]

Rediv

Damn. Somehow I missed the 21st update. Xu Shiyou seems to have overlooked that what he suggests cuts both ways. If the army wins it boosts it's prestige but if it fails. Given what happened OTL, where from what I remember the Chinese forces got quite a mauling this could be worrying. I think Deng used the poor performance as evidence of the need for military and economic reforms. However TTL he's not in a position to do anything and it could be the radicals calling for their reforms.

I'm going to be away for a fortnight but will catch up when I get back. Have fun and hope to see plenty of updates when I return.

Steve

[Lord Roem]

Golly. The Sino-Vietnamese War is so rarely discussed by Cold War historians, yet it was exceptionally bloody given that it failed to develop beyond wide-scale border clashes. I wonder, given Beijing's more hard-line militarism here, if the situation will escalate beyond what happened in OTT. Moscow may be dragged in here far more so if Vietnam seems genuinely threatened.

I wonder if the Khmer Rouge will hang on to power in this case. If Hanoi feels unable to risk a further invasion then the chances of Pol Pot remaining in office is a real possibility.

[stevep]

Originally Posted by Lord Roem

Golly. The Sino-Vietnamese War is so rarely discussed by Cold War historians, yet it was exceptionally bloody given that it failed to develop beyond wide-scale border clashes. I wonder if, given Beijing's more hard-line militarism here if the situation will escalate beyond what happened in OTT. Moscow may be dragged in here far more so if Vietnam seems genuinely threatened.

I must admit I hadn't considered it going any further than the heavy border 'clashes' of OTL but that's a nasty option. If the army have put a lot of their prestige on the line they could be less willing to accept anything that looks less that a success. [Given how limited the 'success' they had OTL that's saying something]. Doubt if it would come to a large scale clash with the Soviets. China can't afford that at this point. However might see some Soviet build-up and a few probes of their own on the Manchurian border. This could get hairy. Not to mention such a line of development could strengthen the hard-liners in China.

I wonder if the Khmer Rouge will hang on to power in this case. If Hanoi feels unable to risk a further invasion then the chances of Pol Pot holding onto power is a real possibility.

Ugh! Again something I hadn't thought of. Hope not. The Vietnamese dictatorships isn't very pleasant but no one deserves Pol Pot and his vermin.

Steve

[Rediv]

Originally Posted by Lord Roem

I wonder if the Khmer Rouge will hang on to power in this case. If Hanoi feels unable to risk a further invasion then the chances of Pol Pot remaining in office is a real possibility.

The Khmer Rouge certainly are in a stronger position than in OTL, where the Sino-Vietnamese conflict really only broke out after they had already been overthrown. In contrast, in TTL they’re still in control of the majority of Cambodia.

Originally Posted by Lord Roem

I wonder, given Beijing's more hard-line militarism here, if the situation will escalate beyond what happened in OTT. Moscow may be dragged in here far more so if Vietnam seems genuinely threatened.

Originally Posted by stevep

Xu Shiyou seems to have overlooked that what he suggests cuts both ways. If the army wins it boosts it's prestige but if it fails.

Originally Posted by stevep

If the army have put a lot of their prestige on the line they could be less willing to accept anything that looks less that a success. [Given how limited the 'success' they had OTL that's saying something]. Doubt if it would come to a large scale clash with the Soviets. China can't afford that at this point. However might see some Soviet build-up and a few probes of their own on the Manchurian border. This could get hairy.

Well, um, I'm afraid I'm going to have to limit my remarks here to "The two of you have raised some very good points."

[truth is life]

Right, this is a good TL and I forgot to subscribe the last time I saw it come up. Not making that mistake this time around.

[Rediv]

Originally Posted by truth is life

Right, this is a good TL and I forgot to subscribe the last time I saw it come up. Not making that mistake this time around.

Thanks! Glad to have you along! And let me know if you've got any criticisms, complaints, questions, suggestions...whatever. That goes for everybody: I'm anxious to hear what I can do to make this timeline better for you guys.

[historybuff]

How about at some point, the reformists gain enough support to drive the radicals from power?

[Rediv]

Originally Posted by historybuff

How about at some point, the reformists gain enough support to drive the radicals from power?

Well the moderates have been doing a pretty good job so far in building up their coalition and edging out the radicals, and while the war in Vietnam has made things a bit more complicated and risky, I certainly wouldn’t write off the reformers just yet.

[Rediv]

Lang Son Captured: Hanoi Confirms Loss of Key City

-- Los Angeles Times, Jan. 24, 1979



As Beijing’s official press trumpets its most significant victory in Vietnam so far, many analysts wonder whether China has the will or the ability to continue waging war for much longer.

Since the beginning of the invasion, China has insisted that its intention has been to “punish” Vietnam for a series of alleged attacks on Chinese border troops, asserting that they did not want “a single inch of Vietnamese territory.” Many long-time China watchers believe that the current conflict will likely be conducted along the same lines as Beijing’s 1962 border war with India. That assault saw Chinese troops penetrate up to 100 miles inside Indian territory across a wide front, only to withdraw completely a month later.

Logistical constraints may also ensure that the current conflict will be relatively brief. While China has clear superiority in numbers (the PLA’s reserves in the provinces of Guangxi and Yunnan alone outnumber Hanoi’s total force of 615,000 men), it cannot compete with Vietnam’s sophisticated weaponry, comprised not only of the newest Soviet models, but also a large amount of captured American equipment. China’s weapons, by contrast, are based on long-outdated designs acquired before the Sino-Soviet split in the late 1950’s.

Some analysts have suggested, however, that many of the advantages enjoyed by the Vietnamese forces could be undercut by their soldiers’ low morale. While many observers have described Hanoi’s troops as “battle-hardened,” others depict them as simply war-weary. Since the invasion of Cambodia last December, desertion rates have skyrocketed, with many recruits bribing their officers to let them return home. The Chinese, untested in any major conflict since the Korean War, will likely be eager to prove themselves in what for many will be their first experience on the battlefield.

-- Washington Post, Jan. 25, 1979



Despite continued losses to Chinese forces in the north, Vietnamese troops have shown no sign of abandoning their continuing push into Cambodia. While analysts in Bangkok note that Vietnamese troops have slowed their advance towards Phnom Penh since the start of hostilities with China last month, they say that there is no indication that troops are being moved out of Cambodia to defend against the continued Chinese incursion.
…
While Beijing has consistently claimed to have launched its assault in response to Vietnamese attacks on the Chinese border, some Western observers have suggested that one of China’s primary aims has been to draw Vietnamese regulars away from Cambodia and relieve the beleaguered Khmer Rouge regime in Phnom Penh.

-- San Francisco Chronicle, Jan. 28, 1979


China has sent more than 50,000 additional troops into Vietnam, while deploying as many as 200,000 more along the border, sources here said. The Hong Kong newspaper Ta Kung Pao, which has long maintained close links to the Chinese Communist Party, reported yesterday that reserves from three more provinces were being called up, dispelling rumors of a possible Chinese withdrawal from Vietnam.

After seizing the northern city of Lang Son a week ago, Chinese forces in Vietnam have made no effort to advance onward, leading some to believe that the month-long invasion was drawing to an end. These new reports suggest that China is preparing for a renewed assault, but analysts are divided as to where the next push will be.

-- Chicago Tribune, Feb. 1, 1979



Chinese Launch Fresh Attacks: Pause Appears Over As Fighting Resumes in Vietnam

-- Globe and Mail headline, Feb. 4, 1979



China appears to have begun an airlift of military supplies and possibly troops to Cambodia in an attempt to increase pressure on Vietnam, according to reports from Beijing. The official news agency Xinhua announced that a delegation of Chinese “friendship volunteers” had arrived in Phnom Penh to “assist the Cambodian people’s heroic struggle against Vietnamese aggression.” Unconfirmed reports from Laos say that Chinese cargo planes have begun regular flights to Cambodia over the past several days. The Laotian government, an ally of Hanoi, has made no comment.

-- New York Times, Feb. 7, 1979

[JamesHunter]

Ugh! I'd half forgotten China proped up Pot and his maniacs, poor Cambodia...

Nice to see this TL back as well

[Rediv]

Originally Posted by JamesHunter

Ugh! I'd half forgotten China proped up Pot and his maniacs, poor Cambodia...

It is an awfully strange (to say nothing of shameful) quirk of geopolitics that at the time when OTL China was jettisoning the disastrous policies of the Mao era in its own country, they were supporting an even more extreme and brutal form of those policies in Cambodia. As late as 1984 the overthrown Khmer Rouge leaders were still being feted as guests of honor in Beijing during the PRC’s 35th anniversary celebrations.

[Rediv]

Fall of Four Key Towns Reported; Viet Capital Threatened As Fighting Rages for Road, Rail Centers

-- Los Angeles Times headline, Feb. 15, 1979


New clashes were reported in Cambodia yesterday after over a month of relative peace in the conflict between the Khmer Rouge regime and Vietnamese troops. Radio broadcasts from Phnom Penh claimed that Cambodian forces had scored a “decisive victory,” and informed sources in Bangkok confirmed that fighting had resumed, though they could not specify where it had taken place.

The Cambodian broadcasts made reference to the presence of Chinese “comrades-in-arms” in the fighting, confirming earlier reports that Beijing had sent troops to the country. No indication was given of the number of Chinese soldiers who took part in the fighting, and intelligence sources say they are still unable to speculate on the total size of the Chinese forces currently in Cambodia.

-- New York Times, Feb. 17, 1979



The Soviet Union warned China tonight to withdraw its troops from Vietnam immediately or face unspecified serious consequences, the most severe warning to Beijing since the invasion began. “The Chinese aggressors must know that the more crimes they perpetrate, the harsher will be the retribution,” the statement said.

There has been widespread speculation about what action, if any, Moscow would take on behalf of its Vietnamese ally. So far, Moscow has demonstrated its support by sending emergency airlifts of supplies, building up its Pacific fleet, and issuing warnings to China. But senior military analysts have not ruled out the possibility of direct military action in the face of a deepening Chinese offensive, with possible options including a naval assault along the south China coast, or punitive raids across China’s northern border.

-- Washington Post, Feb. 16, 1979


Viet Troops Increase Pressure in Counter Attack: Heavy Arms Are Moved Up

-- Chicago Tribune, Feb. 18, 1979



For the first time, Vietnam is reported to be moving significant numbers of fighter-bombers from the south, where they have been engaged in the war in Cambodia, to within range of the Chinese forces. Surface-to-air missiles are also being moved northward, and analysts believe that the air war, which has so far been limited, will soon be stepped up.
…
Meanwhile, analysts in Hong Kong said that China was moving rapidly to reinforce its army fighting in Vietnam, with a minimum of 300,000 soldiers, and perhaps as many as 400,000, now deployed in the border area. This is at least double the number of soldiers the Hong Kong analysts earlier in the week estimated Beijing had committed to its ongoing assault in Vietnam.

-- New York Times, Feb. 24, 1979



Vietnam Claims Chinese Casualties Now Top 50,000

-- Toronto Star, Feb. 27, 1979



China Speeds Vietnam Drive, Pressing Capital: Evacuation of Hanoi Is Reported Begun

-- Washington Post, Mar. 2, 1979

[FDW]

Originally Posted by Rediv

Fall of Four Key Towns Reported; Viet Capital Threatened As Fighting Rages for Road, Rail Centers

-- Los Angeles Times headline, Feb. 15, 1979


New clashes were reported in Cambodia yesterday after over a month of relative peace in the conflict between the Khmer Rouge regime and Vietnamese troops. Radio broadcasts from Phnom Penh claimed that Cambodian forces had scored a “decisive victory,” and informed sources in Bangkok confirmed that fighting had resumed, though they could not specify where it had taken place.

The Cambodian broadcasts made reference to the presence of Chinese “comrades-in-arms” in the fighting, confirming earlier reports that Beijing had sent troops to the country. No indication was given of the number of Chinese soldiers who took part in the fighting, and intelligence sources say they are still unable to speculate on the total size of the Chinese forces currently in Cambodia.

-- New York Times, Feb. 17, 1979



The Soviet Union warned China tonight to withdraw its troops from Vietnam immediately or face unspecified serious consequences, the most severe warning to Beijing since the invasion began. “The Chinese aggressors must know that the more crimes they perpetrate, the harsher will be the retribution,” the statement said.

There has been widespread speculation about what action, if any, Moscow would take on behalf of its Vietnamese ally. So far, Moscow has demonstrated its support by sending emergency airlifts of supplies, building up its Pacific fleet, and issuing warnings to China. But senior military analysts have not ruled out the possibility of direct military action in the face of a deepening Chinese offensive, with possible options including a naval assault along the south China coast, or punitive raids across China’s northern border.

-- Washington Post, Feb. 16, 1979


Viet Troops Increase Pressure in Counter Attack: Heavy Arms Are Moved Up

-- Chicago Tribune, Feb. 18, 1979



For the first time, Vietnam is reported to be moving significant numbers of fighter-bombers from the south, where they have been engaged in the war in Cambodia, to within range of the Chinese forces. Surface-to-air missiles are also being moved northward, and analysts believe that the air war, which has so far been limited, will soon be stepped up.
…
Meanwhile, analysts in Hong Kong said that China was moving rapidly to reinforce its army fighting in Vietnam, with a minimum of 300,000 soldiers, and perhaps as many as 400,000, now deployed in the border area. This is at least double the number of soldiers the Hong Kong analysts earlier in the week estimated Beijing had committed to its ongoing assault in Vietnam.

-- New York Times, Feb. 24, 1979



Vietnam Claims Chinese Casualties Now Top 50,000

-- Toronto Star, Feb. 27, 1979



China Speeds Vietnam Drive, Pressing Capital: Evacuation of Hanoi Is Reported Begun

-- Washington Post, Feb. 30, 1979

Date failure (February doesn't have 30 days, not even on leap years, so I assume you mean March 2nd.)

[Rediv]

Originally Posted by FDW

Date failure (February doesn't have 30 days, not even on leap years, so I assume you mean March 2nd.)

Oops. Thanks. Changed.

[stevep]

Rediv

Damn! This is sounding very serious. A major border clash is one thing but if China is threatening Hanoi it would be difficult for the Soviets not to do something and things could spiral out of control. At this point I think the Red Army, especially if they switch forces from Europe, could do some nasty damage to China as they have considerable numbers and strength and I believe a considerable tech lead. Also, with no clear moderate victory in China, coupled with the nature of the regime their trying to prop up in Cambodia, I think it unlikely that the Soviets might be restrained by fear that NATO would support the Chinese.

They would be stupid to occupy any significant area, apart from possibly in the NE which it might be possible to hive off as a protectorate but they could do a lot of both material damage to China's infrastructure and to the prestige of the army.

Checking with Wiki the conflict came shortly after the Vietnamese occupied Phnom Penh [7/1/79] and the Chinese didn't dow until 15/3/79, attacking a couple of days later. TTL you have the Chinese attacking earlier, with Lang Son, which OTL fell 6/3/79 TTL falling ~24/1/79. Are those a result of an earlier as well as more massive Chinese intervention.

This TL could get very nasty. A major Sino-Soviet clash could be good for the west but very bad for China especially. Both in terms of the army being discredited and the radicals strengthened and the sheer damage that might be done to both China's material base and its relations with the rest of the world especially.

One other thing, although probably unlikely. India traditionally had good relations with Russia. If a major clash developed I don't know if the Indian government might be tempted to try and regain the lands lost in 62. [Having just checked it is the last year of the Janata government so probably pretty unlikely].

Looking good, in a grisly sort of way.

Steve

[LeoXiao]

Wow, all these uncommented updates! I'm afraid I can't say much since I don't know the detailed political relationships in this time, but all the developments have been frighteningly interesting. I think it would be interesting to see a modern version of a warring states period, or one where some parts of China become successful (economic miracles and the like) and others not so much... (they go the n.korean route?)

[Rediv]

Originally Posted by stevep

Checking with Wiki the conflict came shortly after the Vietnamese occupied Phnom Penh [7/1/79] and the Chinese didn't dow until 15/3/79, attacking a couple of days later. TTL you have the Chinese attacking earlier, with Lang Son, which OTL fell 6/3/79 TTL falling ~24/1/79. Are those a result of an earlier as well as more massive Chinese intervention.

Well yes, the Chinese invasion in TTL began on Jan. 1, a good month and a half earlier than in OTL (and attacking more or less by surprise, without a public declaration of war or anything like Deng Xiaoping's not-so-subtle hints that something big was about to go down). That, combined with, as you said, a larger invasion force, accounts for the earlier fall of Lang Son.

And as for the continuing course of the war and its result, while things probably won't quite get apocalyptic, there's really no way that the outcome can be anything but bad for China.

Originally Posted by LeoXiao

Wow, all these uncommented updates! I'm afraid I can't say much since I don't know the detailed political relationships in this time, but all the developments have been frighteningly interesting. I think it would be interesting to see a modern version of a warring states period, or one where some parts of China become successful (economic miracles and the like) and others not so much... (they go the n.korean route?)

Thanks! Glad to have you along! I know that at times I get a bit bogged-down and obscurantist here (probably why I had such a long run of uncommented updates for a while), so let me know if there's anything you'd like me to explain or make clearer.

I like your ideas on where China might end up in a few years time -- while political fragmentation in one way or another has always been on my mind, I hadn't given much thought to the economic aspect of it. There are a lot of really interesting possibilities there. hmmm...

[Rediv]

A brief update:

-----------------------

For the first time since fighting began two months ago, China’s official press today spelled out the objectives of its “punitive action” in Vietnam in an ultimatum addressed to the Hanoi government. An article in Beijing’s official People’s Daily newspaper demanded that Vietnam issue a formal apology for “thousands of ruthless, unprovoked attacks” across the Chinese border, and withdraw its troops from Cambodia. If these conditions are not satisfied, the article warns, Vietnam will continue to receive the “just punishment that awaits any aggressor.”

-- Globe and Mail, Mar. 1, 1979



As the bus entered Hanoi, somebody in the group, I think he was an Australian, murmured that the city had become like a ghost town. But in reality, nothing could be further from the truth. The civilians were long gone, but in their place were hundreds, perhaps thousands of soldiers, running every which way, shouting orders, hastily setting up defenses. Anti-aircraft guns sprouted up at nearly every intersection, guarded by half a dozen machine gun-toting guards in their ubiquitous green pith helmets.

Occasionally we would drive past a missile battery, and everyone would crane their necks to get a good long look before arguing in fierce whispers over what kind of model it was, throwing around a dizzying array of numbers and letters. Having just come from a relatively missile-free assignment in Bangkok, I didn’t have the first clue as to what any of it meant, but I could tell they all seemed impressed by what they were seeing. Clearly the Vietnamese were not going to give up Hanoi without a fight.

-- Andreas Walder, Dateline: Hanoi – Two Years in the New Vietnam, Ecco, 1984



By March it was clear that Vietnam would not prove to be the quick, stunning victory that had been predicted two months earlier. Chinese losses were steadily mounting, and numerous local commanders in Guangxi and Yunnan began to show increasing reluctance to devote more and more of their troops to the deepening conflict.

To reduce the burden on China’s southernmost provinces, General Yang Dezhi suggested mobilizing troops from his own Wuhan Military Region, as well as the bordering Nanjing MR, which had previously been under the command of Xu Shiyou and remained fiercely loyal to the general even after his transfer to Guangzhou in 1975.

But the proposal was quickly vetoed on the grounds that it would cause undue alarm and send a clear message that the war was ballooning out of control. Already increasing numbers of civilian leaders had begun to express misgivings over the duration and growing cost of the war, and the southern generals knew that to leave Vietnam with anything less than a clear victory would be ruinous not only for their own careers, but for the reputation of the entire PLA itself. And so on 11 March, Xu Shiyou signed an order calling for an additional 50,000 troops to be sent into Vietnam before traveling across the border to Lang Son to direct the assault on Hanoi.

-- A.J. Gordon, Dragons Entangled: China’s Vietnam War, Plume Press, 1988



Viet Says Battle for Hanoi Is On: Heavy Shelling Reported; Analysts Differ on Fighting

-- Chicago Tribune, Mar. 12, 1979

[LeoXiao]

Holy shit. Is China not going to have the sense to get out before it's too late?

[stevep]

Rediv

Sounds like a fatal indecision. They won't risk the big troops commitments that might secure at least a pretence of victory. While that route could cause heavy losses they could lose even more by not overwhelming the defenders and quite possibly not win the actual battle for Hanoi. If they fail to storm the city then what do they do with their occupation of other places in Vietnam.

Given that moving units from central China was vetoed and there is growing discontent on more being sent from the regions bordering Vietnam where are those extra 50k coming from? Is this a case of Xu Shiyou ordering the southern commanders to release the troops regardless? If so will they comply?

Steve