I've been reading quite a bit about Wales lately and began to get quite fascinated with its history. Naturally, I've been wanting to put this question on here for quite some time. With a PoD past the year 1200, how is it possible to have the Welsh at the very least control all of modern Wales and survive as an independent nation free of English domination? And beyond that, is there anyway for the Welsh in the era to expand beyond their borders and take much of England as per the "Mab Darogan" prophecy of a hero who drives out the Saxon/English invaders? Doesn't necessarily mean taking all of England, just want to know if any of you think any conquest even over time is possible.
Welsh Medieval Victory
- Thread starter 9 Fanged Hummingbird
- Start date
You'll need a POD long before 1200. By that time you've had the NormanConquest adn the creation of a feudal English state that can campaign relentlessly against hte smaller Welsh princedoms. In my opinion, Wales's moment was during the Viking invasions. If they'd embraced some Viking advances (keeless boats for piloting up the larger Welsh rivers and to Ireland to facilitate trade in addition to existing coracles would make trade ar easier) and given the unstable political situation, they could have been an important power broker- a useful counterbalance. The Welsh were courted by Wessex to fight against the Danes, and this would give them greater intergration with England- they'd be seen as another kingdom, rather than borderline peoples who can be conquered adn fought with impunity.
A pre-1066 pod even to simply survive? Because gaining land was a secondary thing. I was thinking that Llywelyn the Last could keep the minor princes in check and they don't betray him in favor of the English, who they assumed would not interfere much with what they did. If he could just keep the southern Welsh on his side it'd present a united Wales that would be a big challenge even for the English. After all, even in 1282, the army that Edward used to completely conquer Wales for the last time was more than half composed of Welshmen. If he lacked the option of recruiting those guys, it'd probably be a lot more trouble to even attempt to put Wales down.
Well he could do that and maybe found aviable kingdom, however Wales would go the way of Scotland- either conquered or assimilated. England, from the 11th century onwards, was the master of the British Isles and that truth only became more and more apparent as time progressed.
The Welsh, if they are to retain their culture, language and independence have to capitalise on England's division in the 7-9th centuries, with various invasions rocking the country. They could be a powerful power broker and also their position in either sides flank (to the west of Offa's Dyke) would make them strategically important to any attacker or defender (imagine trying to defend Wessex without some form of help from the Welsh west of the Severn- they could easily outflank the Saxons).
The other problem Wales had was that the system of inheritences (and clannish infighting) meant that a great Prince who pulled the entire country together as a unified whole would have the whole thing dissolve on his death. You need to change Welsh society to prevent that, and that's a tougher change than 'one great warlord'.
Owain Glyndwr. He's your best bet post 1200's. In OTL He threw the English out of Wales and was accepted as Prince of an Independent Wales by the Scots, Irish and French and negotiated a formal treaty of alliegance with the French but the farce of Worcester and an unfavorable shift in Continental politics cost him.
What I think is most likely to succeed is a victory from Henry 'Hotspur' Percy at Shrewsbury and a rise to the English throne of the Mortimers. But even then I doubt that Wales could keep its independence more than one r two generations at best.
What I think is most likely to succeed is a victory from Henry 'Hotspur' Percy at Shrewsbury and a rise to the English throne of the Mortimers. But even then I doubt that Wales could keep its independence more than one r two generations at best.
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You need two things - firstly, you need to reform the laws of succession into something rational so that the death of a strong ruler isn't followed by an outbreak of civil war amongst his surviving sons. And secondly, you need to get Edward I out of the way and preferably a nice, prolonged period of chaos in England.
The second is actually easiest to arrange - Edward was almost killed OTL by a muslim assassin whilst on crusade in July 1272, simply remove the "almost" here and, assuming Henry III dies on schedule in November of 1273, this leaves as king Edward's sole surviving son, the four year old prince Henry - who himself died in 1274. After this the throne would fall to Henry's sole surviving son, Edmund Crouchback, Duke of Lancaster, who was at this point unmarried and childless. It's possible I suppose that all this could happen smoothly and without dispute, but given what England was like at the time it isn't the way I'd bet. Llywelyn is certainly the sort of figure who could exploit any turmoil to his advantage - at the very least, the wars of 1276 and 1282 should be avoided.
But again, this only buys time until the next time England is united under a strong and capable ruler. It's vital that somehow the succession law is sorted out for a longer term solution.
The second is actually easiest to arrange - Edward was almost killed OTL by a muslim assassin whilst on crusade in July 1272, simply remove the "almost" here and, assuming Henry III dies on schedule in November of 1273, this leaves as king Edward's sole surviving son, the four year old prince Henry - who himself died in 1274. After this the throne would fall to Henry's sole surviving son, Edmund Crouchback, Duke of Lancaster, who was at this point unmarried and childless. It's possible I suppose that all this could happen smoothly and without dispute, but given what England was like at the time it isn't the way I'd bet. Llywelyn is certainly the sort of figure who could exploit any turmoil to his advantage - at the very least, the wars of 1276 and 1282 should be avoided.
But again, this only buys time until the next time England is united under a strong and capable ruler. It's vital that somehow the succession law is sorted out for a longer term solution.
Back to the Mercians...
When the Vikings overthrew Mercia, there would have been a brief window of opportunity for the Welsh to take half of Mercia (including Chester, Tamworth and some burhs further east) as a protectorate. If a Welsh Prince has married into the Mercian dynasty, he could fight on behalf of his wife and gain English loyalists. Bring the Welsh longbow into play and get the Saxons of Wessex to make an alliance. If Alfred loses at Ethandun, but in the process fatally weakens Guthrum's army, a follow-up attack by the Welsh-Mercian army could finish Guthrum.
That would let the Welsh control central England and keep England from becoming a unified power across the whole island.
When the Vikings overthrew Mercia, there would have been a brief window of opportunity for the Welsh to take half of Mercia (including Chester, Tamworth and some burhs further east) as a protectorate. If a Welsh Prince has married into the Mercian dynasty, he could fight on behalf of his wife and gain English loyalists. Bring the Welsh longbow into play and get the Saxons of Wessex to make an alliance. If Alfred loses at Ethandun, but in the process fatally weakens Guthrum's army, a follow-up attack by the Welsh-Mercian army could finish Guthrum.
That would let the Welsh control central England and keep England from becoming a unified power across the whole island.
I've been reading about Edward Longshanks and it seems that if you remove him from the equation, England loses more than just a strong ruler, but a smart one as well. Seems the dude was pretty much a military genius and was the guy who turned the English army from a feudal one to a professional force, which was important in all his conquests. Assuming Llywelyn uses the hypothetical chaos of the succession to reform Wales' succession laws, I'd say he'd have a much greater chance. Perhaps this would buy him an opportunity to unite all the Welsh lords and princes under his banner and destroy the Marcher lordships?
Revolutionary Todyo
Banned
Help from Ireland, Scotland and France to survive to the 1200s.
And, England winning the Hundred Years War. I'm under the assumption that such a win would draw the English attention to France where they'll have to contend with the HRE, Wales would be to small to distract them with a giant on the doorstep. From there I see the English getting more and more disillusioned with their technically French monarch who takes from them and gives back nothing. Rebellion later on, and Wales can expand during the chaos.
And, England winning the Hundred Years War. I'm under the assumption that such a win would draw the English attention to France where they'll have to contend with the HRE, Wales would be to small to distract them with a giant on the doorstep. From there I see the English getting more and more disillusioned with their technically French monarch who takes from them and gives back nothing. Rebellion later on, and Wales can expand during the chaos.
Huh, what? To survive to the 1200's? The Principality fell in 1282! They were pretty much at their strongest in the middle of the century. And there are simpler ways to create chaos than to have to go through all that. Without Edward I, as others said, they are already in big trouble.
Blair152
Banned
The Welsh were a fractious people then. They did, however, finally unite under Llewellyn, who almost drove Edward I out of Wales, but in the end,
England took Wales. Scotland, on the other hand, proved to be a harder nut
to crack.
Um, I'm well aware of that. We don't need a summary of the situation, thank you very much, this thread is about how to make it so that they don't get conquered.
Revolutionary Todyo
Banned
Sorry, Im planning a similar event in my own TL. However I'm working with Ireland about two centuries beforehand, a little different I admit.
Ah, I see. I shall look forward to your TL then, as here Ireland gets almost as little love as Wales.
Anyways, here is a link to Wales after the Treaty of Montgomery in 1267. If Edward I is killed by an assassin in 1272, he will not be able to reduce that land to half of Gwynedd as he did later that decade. The chaos following Henry's death might force Mortimer, Bohun, and the others might be too distracted to even attempt to take land from him, and in any case Llywelyn would no longer have to pay homage or even tribute as the Treaty demanded to a weak or absent king. This could also mean that his brother and the prince of Powys cannot seek refuge in England, and they get caught an executed, whereupon Llywelyn loses a major thorn in his side and is further enabled to reform Wales while England is still trying to settle out their own issues.
However, an earlier possible POD might be a Baronial victory in the earlier Baron's Rebellion, and Llywelyn taking full advantages of the concessions granted to him by Simon de Montfort. However I know little of this particular war and so I leave it to others to judge whether this is better than Edward's assassination as a POD.
Anyways, here is a link to Wales after the Treaty of Montgomery in 1267. If Edward I is killed by an assassin in 1272, he will not be able to reduce that land to half of Gwynedd as he did later that decade. The chaos following Henry's death might force Mortimer, Bohun, and the others might be too distracted to even attempt to take land from him, and in any case Llywelyn would no longer have to pay homage or even tribute as the Treaty demanded to a weak or absent king. This could also mean that his brother and the prince of Powys cannot seek refuge in England, and they get caught an executed, whereupon Llywelyn loses a major thorn in his side and is further enabled to reform Wales while England is still trying to settle out their own issues.
However, an earlier possible POD might be a Baronial victory in the earlier Baron's Rebellion, and Llywelyn taking full advantages of the concessions granted to him by Simon de Montfort. However I know little of this particular war and so I leave it to others to judge whether this is better than Edward's assassination as a POD.
Constantinople
Banned
Wales survival is almost impossible as it was even in 1000. Once the English state gets its act together and truly invests the time and energy into conquering the Welsh, it would only be a matter of time. Wales was hardly united, and even when it was, it would never last more than a couple generations. Once Edward I decided he wanted the line of native price gone: gone. Bam.
Thing is, PoDs here revolve around Edward I dying. Which would put a thorn in his plan to conquer Wales. It would take more than just time to take Wales, Edward I had to rely on a great many Welsh lords joining him in the hope that he would not be very intrusive in his rule. If Edward I was dead before he could even start campaigning against Wales and the other lords and princes were either disillusioned enough with English rule or Llywelyn managed to get them to stay loyal, the English would have major problems even attempting to conquer Wales. Even in Longshanks' final campaign against them in 1282 with a large professional army of 15,000, including 9,000 Welshmen, he still experienced many hardships and setbacks. With him and those Welsh allies out of the equation, you're going to have many, many problems.