Canadian AH: Louis Riel not executed?

Hey everyone, I've been lying low for a while, school's been a killer. Once it's over though I'll be back with a few TL's I'm working on in my (non-existent) spare time.

In the meantime how about this?

Let's say that in the aftermath of the Northwest Rebellion of 1885, Gabriel Dumont decides not to abandon Louis Riel to his fate as leader of the rebellion. Turning back he soon realizes that any attempt to break Riel out of custody would be foolish, so instead he gets a note to Riel through his asking him to plead insanity so he could escape later. Though Riel is initially hesitant to plead insanity, he decides that being executed is somewhat less palatable. The note from Dumont persuades Riel to agree with his lawyers and plead insanity (OTL Riel, who was very much insane, opted to plead not guilty not wanting to spend more time in an insane asylum). TTL's trail is a very different affair and in the end the jury narrowly declares him insane sentencing him to spend the rest of his life in an insane asylum in Quebec.

Riel is interned in the asylum in September, and by that time, Dumont has gathered enough followers to break him out. They do so and make for the border, crossing into the US before the authorities can catch them. Though the Canadian and British governments demand the return of Riel and Dumont the US refuses. Upon arriving in the US Riel is tired of Canada, he declares that the new homeland of the Metis will be in the United States. Heading back to Montana (where he settled in OTL following his exile in 1870), Riel proceeds to call for a Metis "exodus" to Montana. And with little left to keep them in Canada the majority of the Metis are lured by Riel's utopic vision, leave Canada and proceed to join Riel and Dumont across the border in Montana.

Following Riel's second exile and settling in Montana for good, Riel proceeds to once again get heavily involved in the Republican party and state politics mobilizing the newly arrived Metis community to that end. In the decades that follow, Montana will develop a strong Metis community and a stronger state Republican party than OTL. Though in the 20th century many will assimilate into the greater body of Montanan culture, some cultural distinctiveness remains. His son John Riel (OTL Jean Louis Riel) will eventually become state Governor.

However the gist of this scenario is not American but Canadian. Resettlement of the Metis aside, Riel's non-execution would have massive ripple effects in Canada. Without the outrage of Riel's execution it is unlikely that Catholic outrage would surge in Quebec leading to the Liberal victories in 1886 under Honore Mercier. Without the galvanizing action of Riel's execution, the French Canadian nationalists remain disunited allowing the Conservative Party of Quebec to retain it's stranglehold on Provincial politics.

On the flipside, the outrage of not executing Riel will have the exact opposite effect on Ontario. Extreme Protestants along with the Orange Order will be incensed and in all likelihood will form their own political protest party. John A. MacDonald, an Orangeman, would probably be kicked out of the Order. The provincial elections of 1886 in Ontario will see the "Protestant Party" win a good chunk of the seats ending Oliver Mowat's tenure as premier of Ontario and ushering in a Conservative/Protestant Minority government.

These Conservative Governments probably lead to Macdonald's efforts to establish the dominance of the Federal government over the provincial to be more successful. But in the long run this backfires, as in 1887 the Orange Order turns against him, voting for the Liberals in large numbers along with those angry at Macdonald's trampling of provincial rights bringing in Edward Blake. Blake reverses many of Macdonalds policies including the National policy which he replaces with a policy of free trade with the US (which ironically angers his biggest supporters in the Orange Order).

However having lost the support of the Orange Order over the issue of Riel, the Tories might decide to abandon the radical protestant vote altogether. Instead nominating someone like Jack Thompson for leader....

I know it's not that familiar of an era of history but thoughts?
 
I think you should go back even further, and then invade the that thread about the West Saharan Israel with Riel's plead to settle all the Jews in Manitoba :D.

I think, just off hand this would be a massive political blow for MacDonald if his execution doesn't go through. It would definitely keep Quebec politics fractured for a bit longer. Not sure if it'd have any immediate implications for Western settlement, but a mass exodus of the Métis would mean a whole different history for most of Manitoba.
 
I think you should go back even further, and then invade the that thread about the West Saharan Israel with Riel's plead to settle all the Jews in Manitoba :D.

I think, just off hand this would be a massive political blow for MacDonald if his execution doesn't go through. It would definitely keep Quebec politics fractured for a bit longer. Not sure if it'd have any immediate implications for Western settlement, but a mass exodus of the Métis would mean a whole different history for most of Manitoba.

Good point, No Manitoba Schools Question in TTL with the Metis largely in Montana. Interesting...

I think the biggest change would be the formation of a Protestant Extremist party in the aftermath of Riel's escape, originating in Ontario and spreading into Federal Politics. A way earlier 3 party system would definitely affect things perhaps leading to an earlier fragmentation of Canadian politics! Imagine Herni Bourassa forming the BQ 70 years earlier!
 
No metis in Manitoba...

But if you remove all the metis from the Northwest Territories, British Columbia, and Ontario in addition to Manitoba then you've just removed a HUGE portion of the population

Given the insurrection raised I can't see the US harboring him openly due to precident if nothing else. I can see a version of the Texas Rangers getting lost accross the Mexico river as the RCMP finally get their man however...along with any other notable leaders.

Plus having the unknown response of the US, continued problems in the west, and the finally completed transcanada railway I can see a much earlier push to settle the area with reliable folks and possibly some earlier provinces formed in the west. Assiniboine and Athabaska for example.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Just playing fast and loose with the POD...the legality of the trial was shakey to say the least.

I mean: everyone stop and ask themselves...what was Louis Riel prosecuted convicted of and prosecuted for? Treason. And he was convicted in a Canadian court, obviously.

But he'd since taken on American citizenship and gave up his legal Canadian ties. So...this means that a court tried an American citizen for treason against Canada. Now, it's not hard to understand why the US let Canada do this: it's Louis Riel. Canada was really not just prosecuting him for what he did in the 1880s. There's not a person in their right mind that didn't remember what happened on the Red River, and the government obviously regretted letting him go.

But the US government was well within it's legal rights to step in at any time and tell the Canadian government to stop prosecuting an American citizen for what was essentially a crime against the Crown.
 
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