WI: RN SSN Lost During Falklands

What if an accident had occurred onboard an RN SSN during the Falklands War, resulting in her loss? The accident can be either one where the sub can still surface and get (almost) everybody off, or one where the first idea anyone has that an SSN is in trouble is when SOSUS hears an explosion followed by breaking up noises.

What would the results be? Presumably the RN has more than one SSN, so Belgrano may or may not still be toast. What effects would this have on the rest of the Falklands War, and on the RN to the present date?

If its the one stalking General Belgrano, you better believe that the Argentines will be freaked out and pay a lot more attention to ASW, and focus hard on tracking down any British subs they can find. Now, the Argies weren't all that swift at ASW, but even focusing a lot more is gonna unnerve British SSN crews. It also means that the one tracking Veinticinco de Mayo will be found fairly quickly.

As far as it changing how the war goes, the Belgrano may well make it to Stanley Harbor, which isn't good news for British assault troops, and will probably force the RN (or RAF with the Vulcans, perhaps) to do something about it. Its not gonna change the end result of the war, but it would make life harder for the British.

TM: What are the Argies going to use for ASW? They'll need top cover, because Trackers or Neptunes (though these were more for ELINT/SIGINT IIRC) are going to get blown out of the sky by a Harrier.

For the sake of limiting discussion, lets say HMS Conqueror sinks due to accident at some point while tracking Belgrano, but before she sank it in OTL.

RogueBeaver said:

TM: What are the Argies going to use for ASW? They'll need top cover, because Trackers or Neptunes (though these were more for ELINT/SIGINT IIRC) are going to get blown out of the sky by a Harrier.

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I was thinking Argentina's Nesher fighters would be the top cover. They had nearly 40 of them, and they were able (and did) attack British vessels. Knowing that SSNs are in the area, the Argentines will be running major ASW, and they will realize that Neptunes and Trackers are sitting ducks to a Harrier and plan accordingly. It's a sitting duck to a Harrier, but with the Neshers around, particularly the ones with better radars, the Harrier pilot might get a wee bit nervous.

Just running ASW doesn't mean the argentinians are going to find anything... boats are pretty good at not being found, and it wasn't as if it was a secret they were a) in the RN inventory and b) almost certainly in the S Atlantic. More ASW isn't going to change SM operating procedures, either - they're trained to act as if it's the Red Navy's best ASW operators above them at all times

larpsidekick said:

Just running ASW doesn't mean the argentinians are going to find anything... boats are pretty good at not being found, and it wasn't as if it was a secret they were a) in the RN inventory and b) almost certainly in the S Atlantic. More ASW isn't going to change SM operating procedures, either - they're trained to act as if it's the Red Navy's best ASW operators above them at all times

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But if the sub is anywhere near Veintincinco de Mayo, the Argentines will have a good chance at finding it. Finding it and destroying it are two different things, mind you, but the British may have to think a little more before they use those SSNs if the Argentines have nay hope of finding them. Remember what the Veinticinco de Mayo's escorts were - two Type 42 destroyers. Those probably, when working with the Trackers, coulda found a British SSN, especially one close enough to track Veinticinco de Mayo's movements.

Conqueror sinking could have happened. Probably not at the hands of the Argies, and not without a major human error or malfunction on the Brit sub. Submarines are in the same boat (pardon the pun) as aircraft. If they break, human error probably has a lot to do with it.
Or, unless the boat breaks, spongebob could have sank the General Belgrano!

A Few Thoughts...

Argentina was tooled up for fighting Chile, Bolivia or Brazil, not the Royal Navy. Modern diesel-electric subs are lethal and silent (recall the old Oberon class and the German-built 209s?) but an SSN is a different prospect. Conqueror was armed with Mark 8 torpedoes, Tigerfish high-speed torpedoes and probably anti-ship Harpoon missiles as well. The problem was more likely how little force to use rather than how much - Commander Wreford-Brown had to consult his superiors before launching an attack. If the RN SSN in Falklands waters had gone all-out, they could have sunk both Argentinian task forces to the last ship. Because Britain is concerned about its image, this did not happen.

TheMann said:

But if the sub is anywhere near Veintincinco de Mayo, the Argentines will have a good chance at finding it. Finding it and destroying it are two different things, mind you, but the British may have to think a little more before they use those SSNs if the Argentines have nay hope of finding them. Remember what the Veinticinco de Mayo's escorts were - two Type 42 destroyers. Those probably, when working with the Trackers, coulda found a British SSN, especially one close enough to track Veinticinco de Mayo's movements.

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Doubt it.

1 - Only a stupid commander would assume the enemy couldn't find him. (The Argentinians would've been equally silly to act as if no RN subs were in the area.)

2 - The Argies had no real experience of countering nuclear submarines - how do they react or act, if they have little knowledge of their tactics and capabilities? (That's why ex-submarine officers tend to make good ASW officers.)

3 - Type 42s are not very good at ASW, it being a secondary function and in the hands of the above far worse.

4 - Same goes for the ASW aircraft, better than a general purpose ship, generally, but much of 2-3 still apply.

Basically, like a lot of S American nations, they were 'prestige' navies with big guns and carriers, designed more for posturing and fighting their neighbours.


That said, an accident could've occurred and the SSNs sent down south were relatively unsophisticated 1st generation SSNs; but more likely to have happened during some Cold War shennanigans given scope and duration of these missions.

corditeman said:

...Conqueror was armed with Mark 8 torpedoes, Tigerfish high-speed torpedoes and probably anti-ship Harpoon missiles as well.

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The commander of HMS Conquerorchose to use Mark 8 torpedoes because the Mark 24 Tigerfish was considered not as reliable.

It carried a crew of 103. On most occasions where an accident has resulted in the loss of a boat the crew have perished, so that is the likely outcome of this scenario. During the Falklands War Britain lost 258 men. Loosing the Conqueror would have increased the death toll by nearly half and would have constituted the largest single cause of death. For the Argentinean’s the loss of the Belgrano resulted in 321 of their 649 killed. If the cause was not specifically known but enemy action was definitely ruled out then there would be a strong possibility of the other two Churchill Class submarines returning to port for checks. If enemy action could not be ruled out I think this would be less likely.

Loosing a submarine would not have halted the Task Force. Conqueror was operating separately from the T.F. and the Royal Navy was psychologically prepared for losses. The Argentine Navy was seen as, and proved to be a “One ship navy”. Loss of the Belgrano removed them from the battle.

There was no anti-ship version of the Tigerfish available in 1982, nor were there sub-harpoons. The Mk 8 had a 750lb warhead and was well matched to sinking a WW2 vintage cruiser.

Riain said:

There was no anti-ship version of the Tigerfish available in 1982, nor were there sub-harpoons. The Mk 8 had a 750lb warhead and was well matched to sinking a WW2 vintage cruiser.

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The only mention I’ve seen of why the Mark 24’s were not used was that the Captain was not confident of their reliability. What was their function if they weren’t antiship, were they purely anti-submarine?

Yes, they had a small warhead which I think may have been shaped charge.

The Soviet navy found it next to impossible to find USN and RN submarines with surface ASW. How is the Argentinian Navy going to do any better. If by some miracle they found an SSN how are they going to sink it. Type 42s were destroyers focused on air defence and the other escort vessels in the Arg Navy were outdated and next to useless.

Let me reiterate...accidental loss of HMS Conqueror. Anybody have a decent idea of the short-term aftermath?

Douglas said:

Let me reiterate...accidental loss of HMS Conqueror. Anybody have a decent idea of the short-term aftermath?

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Depends, because during war operations (and not forgetting the Cold War) greater risks are taken, even if an organic failure is suspected rather than human error. I can't see the entire class/SSN fleet being recalled since the chances of another loss in the immediate future would've been remote (even if a dodgy refit modification being suspected: either not every sub would've had this yet and those that had it months/years before would've been sailing under operational conditions ever since).

As stated, the RN went to war expecting losses and took them. Naturally they'd be unease at losing a submarine in such a manner, but there were other SSNs in the area of able to be (re)deployed.