Bigger Italian Colonial Empire

[Imperator Frank]

With a POD no earlier than 1848, you must give italy a gigantic empire by 1914.try to include a map and do with the least amount of war with other powers.

[Jimbrock]

Hey, whats with all the Italy threads everywhere all over a sudden? One month and I'm already rubbing off on you?

Seriously, that PoD of 1848 is impossible. Even mine of 1815 was shot down as ASB. If by 'gigantic' you mean Brit-sized, then its impossible. if you have a stronger Italy contributing more to WWI and getting juicy slices of Germany's colonies, and some Brit and French to compensate (like OTL but a bit more) and have them take Ethiopia on the first try, then it's more possible to have a German size empire but more prosperous.

An idea i'm playing with with a PoD in 1250 works too, though...

Jim

[DValdron]

Hmmm.

The simplest way would be for the new Italian state, somewhere between 1860 and 1910 conquer and take over the Ottoman Empire. That would give them Turkey, Cypress, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Jordan. Iraq and Kuwait. From there, move into the Arabian peninsula - Yemen, Oman, the current Saudi Arabia. With a bit (a lot of luck), they might take Persia.

At that point, they're pushing up against British and Russian territories, and they aren't going to be pushing those guys around.

In Africa, they might take Tunis. I think that they were angling for Tunis and the French scooped them at the last minute. From Tunisia and Libya, they could penetrate deep into the Sahara, as far as Chad and Mali before they start running up against French interests.

Ethiopia, they might well take that on the first, or a subsequent try.

Egypt, unlikely as hell. The Brits were too deep, too early. Not even the French could squeeze in.

Beyond that, they might, if they were on top of things, get in on the scramble for Pacific Islands. Or push for an Italian Sphere of Influence and maybe some trade concessions in China. But the only uneaten country in the far east was Thailand. It's remotely possible that the Italians might have come up the middle on that one.

No real chances for expansion in the Americas.

I dunno. I could see a timeline where Italy usurps the Ottoman possessions, takes Tunisia and Ethiopia.... but everything after that is a pretty hard sell.

[Jimbrock]

Originally Posted by DValdron

[snip]

You what? Even for an Italo-wanker like me, the OTL Italy made in 1860 can NOT conquer all Ottoman Empire. They got exhausted after Libya and Dodecanese, so I doubt they could take ALL that.

Originally Posted by DValdron

I dunno. I could see a timeline where Italy usurps the Ottoman possessions, takes Tunisia and Ethiopia.... but everything after that is a pretty hard sell.

*Spam* Plus Early Medieval PoD's, United Reneissance Italy in 1500, Modest-Large Colonial Empire, Uber Italy by 1800... You'll like the TL im planning to make after school finishes. *Spam*

[Wolf]

Originally Posted by Jimbrock

You what? Even for an Italo-wanker like me, the OTL Italy made in 1860 can NOT conquer all Ottoman Empire. They got exhausted after Libya and Dodecanese, so I doubt they could take ALL that.



*Spam* Plus Early Medieval PoD's, United Reneissance Italy in 1500, Modest-Large Colonial Empire, Uber Italy by 1800... You'll like the TL im planning to make after school finishes. *Spam*

Well I'm looking forward to it. I've never seen a Italy-wank. Though I have thought a Papal States or Venice-wank would be down right awesome.!

[Geekhis Khan]

Originally Posted by Jimbrock

Hey, whats with all the Italy threads everywhere all over a sudden? One month and I'm already rubbing off on you?

Anticipation over Viva Balbo, I'm sure!

Seriously, that PoD of 1848 is impossible. Even mine of 1815 was shot down as ASB. If by 'gigantic' you mean Brit-sized, then its impossible. if you have a stronger Italy contributing more to WWI and getting juicy slices of Germany's colonies, and some Brit and French to compensate (like OTL but a bit more) and have them take Ethiopia on the first try, then it's more possible to have a German size empire but more prosperous.

That's about the best I can imagine.

Maybe if we assume the '48 "independence" war went Italy's way (and assuming they can keep France and A-H at bay - big if) then they get another 10-15 years of time to build and there's better hope in the Horn earlier.

Perhaps also if Italy buys the Belgian Congo from the private company rather than the King Leopold.

Still, they need a) a Real Fleet which means b) Earlier Industrialization and c) the French and British fleets allowing Gibraltar/Suez passage of colonial conquest fleets just as a start.

Plus joining the Scramble earlier makes c) far less likely.

The major problem for Italy was being a poor peninsular nation dependent on imports made them vulnerable to foreign interference. The Catch-22 was that to remedy this they needed a bigger military-industrial complex which requires more resources which requires either 1) an empire or 2) more imports vulnerable to any enemy fleets - either of which requires a bigger navy which requires a bigger military-industrial complex and which could antagonize hostile powers that could exploit the vulnerability while they build up!

[Onkel Willie]

@Wolf: my 'Twin Eagles and the Lion' TL in the pre-1900 forum is an Italo-wank (but also a Russo and German wank)

The easiest way for this is to just have the Roman Empire survive and have them become a colonial power once they discover the Americas and/or expand into Africa and Asia. Either that, or you have to unite Italy very early on butI don't see how it can be done with the Papal states in the way.

Perhaps you can have a less control-freak-like Emperor Justinian as a PoD. Instead of trying to reconquer the Western Roman Empire, you could have him set up a new Western Roman Empire that includes Italy, north Africa and perhaps southern Spain under one of his generals. Eventually Byzantine influence fades but after centuries of one Italy, Italy remains one nation much like Britain and France (maybe the Pope moves to Germany where he can easily carve out a Papal state if Germany is still as fractious as IOTL). I don't know if this is possible as it's not my area of expertise. It could be ASB for all I care .

[DValdron]

All right, let's try this on for size and see how it fits.

Italy unifies in 1861. Thereafter, through the 1860's and 1870's, Italy's focus is on foreign policy. It dabbles in colonialism in Eritirea, Ethiopia, Egypt, Libya and Tunis, but nothing too substantial happens.

Italy's approach to colonialism is basically the wallflaower at the orgy. It's basically begging for scraps and trying to see if other countries wouldn't mind if it takes a little bite.

So, its actually angling for Tunisia. But the French just shoulder their way in and eats it in 1881. Italy backs down. Supposing, however, that Italy actually went all the way and pushed back. It's possible that given the interests, Italy might have won Tunisia, despite the aggressive French. Either by getting in there first, somewhere between 1875 and 1880, or just standing up for itself.

In 1910 there were over 100,000 Italians in Tunisia, compared to 34,000 French. So its not out of line that the Italians might have scooped Tunisia. It's genuinely the best historical shot.

Now, the interesting thing about looking at Italian colonial moves, is that the Italians seemed to be allied with Britain, and effectively operating as British proxies at times. In particular, you look back around 1885, the Italians are landing troops in Sudan with British consent, since it furthers British goals. Later on, Britain uses Italy as a proxy against the Ethiopians, who are essentially Russian proxies.

The British considered the Mediteranean as a British lake. So I could see them partnering with the Italians as a counterweight to the French. The Italians are essentially a weaker, more pliable version of the French, as far as the British are concerned.

So on that basis, let's assume an Anglo/Italian Entente going back to 1875. The Italians make a move on Tunisia. The French get upset. The Brits back the Italians, which keeps the French from getting too big, keeps everything nice and balanced.

1878 comes along, and the Russian/Turkish wars that create Serbia, Romania and Bulgaria. The Russians kick the Ottomans all over the place. An international Congress is held to sort out the Balkans, but really, its about Germany and Britain stalling out Russian ambitions in the Balkans. And it works.

During this time, the Ottomans hand over Cypress to the British, as a kind of quid pro quo for their aid. But maybe in the new timeline, Cypress goes to the Italians, with British consent. Why? To avoid a point of Brit/Russian tension, and to keep Germany from jumping the wrong way. So instead of taking Cypress directly, the Brits choose to let it go to their proxy.

In the real world Congress of Vienna, there was a little quid pro quo going on. The French agreed to the Brits taking Cypress if the Brits agreed to the French in Tunisia. Possibly, with astute diplomay, the Italians could have leveraged the Tunisia, divided the French from the Brits, and gone for Cypress. It would take Bismark level skill, but possible.

So now the Italians have a few effective colonies - and a staging area towards the Ottoman.

Down in the Red Sea, the Italians are building up their Eritrea colony, as early as 1869 or so. Across the Red Sea is Yemen, nominally under Ottoman control. Not a stretch to see the Italians building inroads into Yemen. It's the closest and easiest local trading partner to Eritrea... apart from Ethiopia and Somalia.

The Italians backed by England, and the Ethiopians backed by Russia face off in 1895. Things turn out differently. The Italians are more on the ball.

In our timeline, the Ottomans languish from 1878 to 1910. They stay out of trouble, but they're so moribund that the other countries just snap up remote territory. The Brits have been propping up the Ottomans against Russia, but that looks less and less viable. Perhaps they'd be willing to support a new proxy taking over Ottoman interests? The stage is set.

Around 1911 is the Italo Turkish War, in which Italy takes the Dodecanese Islands in the Aegean, and Libya. The Ottoman essentially fall apart. Seeing how weak the Ottoman are, the Greeks lead a Balkan coalition against Turkey, pushing them completely out, and then commence to fighting amongs themselves. The Balkan wars immediately follow the Italian War. Large areas of greek ethnicity in Crete and on the Mainland are still in Turkish hands, however.

So, what if it runs a bit differently in this timeline. What if, around 1908-1911, Greece and Italy, backed by Balkan states, put together a secret treaty. Greece gets in the war first. Italians come to their aid. The balkans join in.

In our timeline, the Ottoman lost two wars in a row and got considerably whittled. In this timeline, the Ottoman the two wars are rolled into one, the stakes are higher, the bites bigger and a terminally weakened Ottoman essentially capitulates, surrendering considerable territory outright to the Greeks and Italians, and accepting protectorate status. Basically, they figure its their best bet.

This essentially leaves the Italians with Ottoman possessions, including Iraq, Yemen, the whole of Arabia and Anatolia. The quid pro quo of the Brits is that the Italians have to keep the Ottoman protectorate rump alive, and they have to basically keep the Russians out of the middle east.

So, I dunno. With smart diplomacy, some genuine aggression, and picking the right wars the right way, its possible.

Iran, Pacific Islands, Thailand, and Chinese influence.... dramatically less possible.

[David S Poepoe]

Why are the Ethopians and Russians pairing up? Strongly doubt that the British would allow anyone but themselves to govern Sudan. Control of the Nile is linked to control of the Suez Canal.

[DValdron]

I don't know. It's what Russians do. Go figure. But it is part of the historical record. Russians pumped tons of money and weapons into Menelik's Ethiopian government, giving it the tech and weapons it needed to face up the Italians. There were even discussions between Menelik and the Russians about unifying the Greek Orthodox and Ethiopian Christian Churches.

And the historical record is that the Italians military venture in Sudan took place with British consent and support, during the process of British takeover. Once the British reached the point where they figured they didn't need any further help, they thanked the Italians and sent them home. It's unlikely that the Italians would have taken Sudan, but under the right circumstances, they might have bitten off some more territory. After all, the Brits were into control of the Nile, they might have been prepared to let go some Sudanese coastline and desert.

[Geekhis Khan]

DV: Wow! I'm impressed! That holds promise.

Still, Italy is diplomatically raising on a broken straight and if they lose Brit support for a second they're facing a French curb-stomp. Plus holding all that territory will be very difficult with their limited navy and army. It took until the early 30s to fully subdue Libya which was right across the pond. Now they have to hold Tunisia, Ethiopia, and large swaths of the ME. They'll need more than Brit acquiescence as a proxy: they'll need full-on support: ships, guns, industry, etc. This could very well create the specter of a virtual "protectorate" status which kind of defeats the whole point of "liberate the patria from foreign imperialism".

Possible, but very difficult with horrible potential if things fall apart. A colony too far?

[rcduggan]

Originally Posted by DValdron

Hmmm.

The simplest way would be for the new Italian state, somewhere between 1860 and 1910 conquer and take over the Ottoman Empire. That would give them Turkey, Cypress, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Jordan. Iraq and Kuwait. From there, move into the Arabian peninsula - Yemen, Oman, the current Saudi Arabia. With a bit (a lot of luck), they might take Persia.

This is just not possible without massive changes in the early nineteenth century, before the period specified. The Russians could not conquer the Ottoman Empire even at the former's height of power and the latter's nadir. Furthermore, in the 1890s, Italy lost a war to Ethiopia. Keep that in mind. Taking into consideration how many magnitudes of strength the Ottomans had over Ethiopia, how do you expect Italy to come out on top?

[DValdron]

Originally Posted by Geekhis Khan

DV: Wow! I'm impressed! That holds promise.

Still, Italy is diplomatically raising on a broken straight and if they lose Brit support for a second they're facing a French curb-stomp. Plus holding all that territory will be very difficult with their limited navy and army. It took until the early 30s to fully subdue Libya which was right across the pond. Now they have to hold Tunisia, Ethiopia, and large swaths of the ME. They'll need more than Brit acquiescence as a proxy: they'll need full-on support: ships, guns, industry, etc. This could very well create the specter of a virtual "protectorate" status which kind of defeats the whole point of "liberate the patria from foreign imperialism".

Possible, but very difficult with horrible potential if things fall apart. A colony too far?

Very true, but just barely feasible. Italian investment and involvement in Tunisia was very heavy already, so it shouldn't be that big a leap.

Ethiopia might be manageable. Essentially, the Ethiopians were able to win in our timeline because they were the beneficiaries of extensive Russian weapons and money. So if the Italians win, Russia is out. They're still stuck with potentially a nasty guerilla campaign. But conceivably, if they took their leaf from the British in India, they could run the place quite profitably. On the other hand, if they're dickheads, the whole thing will come tumbling down.

That just leaves the Ottoman Empire. Italy did win the Italo/Turkish war in our timeline. But that may have represented more or less the limit of its strength. That's why I figured a smart Italian would line up the Greeks and Balkans to help them rewrite the map. The Turks fought the Balkan war, lost. Then fought WWI and lost again. Hell of a streak. So, I'm not assuming a transformation of Italian capacity, just smarter management.

What would be smart is to leave the Ottoman Empire more or less in place as a protectorate. Just set up new management. Keep all the Ottoman institutions, bureaucracy and army, so that all the functional infrastructure and administration is there. Otherwise, if you have to build it all from the ground up.... they just can't. They're nowhere near industrialized enough and nowhere near wealthy enough.

But following 1912 in our timeline, there was a substantial Ottoman reform movement. So assuming that the Italians got in there, its possible that they could implement a four cornered Italy/Ethiopia/Turkish/Arab economic policy that would allow Italy to be more industrialised and powerful. So, at some point in the 20's or 30's, their Empire would be less a house of cards.

Of course, there'd be other consequences. I'm assuming that a major Italian/Balkan/Ottoman War might go on a little longer. Even if it ended in 1912, then its likely that Italy would be so busy coping with the new Ottoman territories that it would likely stay out of WWI. Would WWI happen? Probably. The whole Serbian/Austrian thing seems inescapable.

If Italy skips WWI, then it doesn't lose almost a million men and doesn't go near bankrupt. The rest of Europe basically goes to hell for four years, but the Italians finish up looking fresh as daisies. Which may put them at an economic and competitive advantage vis a vis the rest of Europe. The Italy that goes into WWII is a lot more like Mussolini's fond fantasies, in terms of economic and military strength.

[Max Sinister]

Originally Posted by Jimbrock

An idea i'm playing with with a PoD in 1250 works too, though...

So does my Chaos TL, with a POD in 1200. Italy becomes the New Roman Empire which owns at the height of its power: most of France, the Iberian peninsula, Croatia; all of northern Africa; the southern US, Central America incl. Mexico, the former Inca empire and all of South America north of the Tropic of Capricorn; and India. Not too bad, eh?

[DValdron]

Originally Posted by rcduggan

This is just not possible without massive changes in the early nineteenth century, before the period specified. The Russians could not conquer the Ottoman Empire even at the former's height of power and the latter's nadir. Furthermore, in the 1890s, Italy lost a war to Ethiopia. Keep that in mind. Taking into consideration how many magnitudes of strength the Ottomans had over Ethiopia, how do you expect Italy to come out on top?

Nah. Just a matter of working smarter, not harder.

The Ottoman Empire basically hadn't managed to win a war in 50 years. And it had lost to the Italians in our timeline.

Now, if you're saying that on a one to one knock down drag out fighting and clawing all the way, could Italian Armies have conquered their way through Ottoman territories all the way to Baghdad, Medina, Istanbul, Damascus and whatnot?

Not a frigging chance. That's just too much territory. Too much resistance. The Ottomans are on home ground all the way. The Italians don't have the logistics. You'd have to wank up Italy in serious ways to even contemplate that, and frankly, it wouldn't be worth it.

But who says they had to do it that way?

Instead, lets make two assumptions... both of which are contingent on the Italians being smarter and more savvy than they showed in our timeline.

First, let's assume that the Italians don't go at the Ottoman alone. Is that a bad assumption? Nope. There were all sorts of grudges held in the Balkans. The Bulgars and Serbs and Romanians all wanted a piece. The Greeks had big populations on the aegean coastal mainland. As I said, they attacked the Ottoman right after the Italians did. So it's not out of the question that instead of two painful little wars, the Italians worked a big seriously hurtful one.

A joint Greek/Italian/Bulgarian/Serbian effort would give the Italians enough troops and muscle, and shorten up the supply lines, to put a serious hurting on the Ottoman. Something serious enough to make them reconsider their place in the Universe. They get seriously whittled by the Greeks and Balkans, worse than in our timeline.

The second is that instead of conquering their way through, which they obviously can't, the Italians convince the Ottoman to cut a deal and go in as protectorates. Think of it as an 'Up and Coming' version of Austro-Hungary, if you will.

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

It's Cyprus, not Cypress. It's an island, not a tree.

If we're talking pre-Mussolini this is what I've got:

http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonialismo_italiano (You guys can read Italian, can't you?)

Difatti in quegli anni l'Italia guardava con un certo appetito ai pochi territori ancora liberi, in particolare Thailandia, Alta Birmania, sultanato di Aceh, isole Andamane e Nicobare.

Il secondo tentativo di creare un impero coloniale si poneva come obiettivo il controllo di una zona di territorio che andasse dal mar Mediterraneo al Golfo di Guinea. Il progetto non venne mai esplicitato pubblicamente, ma fu strategicamente chiaro durante le trattative per il Trattato di Versailles (1919) e causò frizioni diplomatiche con la Francia. Per realizzare questo progetto, avendo già formale possesso della Libia, il corpo diplomatico italiano chiese di avere la colonia tedesca del Camerun e cercò di ottenere, come compenso per la partecipazione alla guerra mondiale, il passaggio del Ciad dalla Francia all'Italia.

There's also the sphere of influence in Anatolia (initially it was supposed to be in the south, then it was moved to the southwest, then it was reduced when Greece occupied Smyrna), Albania, the part of Dalmatia assigned to Italy at the London Pact, a successful conquest of Ethiopia, and scooping up Tunisia before the French got it.

[Tyg]

Originally Posted by Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy

If we're talking pre-Mussolini this is what I've got:

http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonialismo_italiano (You guys can read Italian, can't you?)

Egypt/Sudan is a problem on that map. You'd have to mess around pretty early to pry them out from British influence, and Italy doesn't seem well poised to make a grab at that time.

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Originally Posted by Tyg

Egypt/Sudan is a problem on that map. You'd have to mess around pretty early to pry them out from British influence, and Italy doesn't seem well poised to make a grab at that time.

Those were Mussolini's wet dreams. Only the parts I quoted were relevant.

[Jimbrock]

Originally Posted by Geekhis Khan

Anticipation over Viva Balbo, I'm sure!

Must be. Long live the new reign of Italowank!

Originally Posted by Onkel Willie

@Wolf: my 'Twin Eagles and the Lion' TL in the pre-1900 forum is an Italo-wank (but also a Russo and German wank)

The easiest way for this is to just have the Roman Empire survive and have them become a colonial power once they discover the Americas and/or expand into Africa and Asia. Either that, or you have to unite Italy very early on butI don't see how it can be done with the Papal states in the way.

I'll be sure to look at your TL, then.
Aha, an early Italian Unification, you say? Watch when the power of Wikipedia and of bored imagination meet, in the coming (relatively) soon TL of [insert cool quote/title here]!

Originally Posted by DValdron

All right, let's try this on for size and see how it fits.
[snip]

Calling pre-War Italy a Brit puppet is a little mean. After all, they were part of the Triple Alliance with Germany and A-H. On the other hand, I seriously doubt how in the wildest of TL's with PoD's going REALLY back, how Italy could controll the entire, huge Ottoman Empire as a protectorate. Could be possible, but would require very good stratergies and a much stronger Italy.

Originally Posted by Max Sinister

So does my Chaos TL, with a POD in 1200. Italy becomes the New Roman Empire which owns at the height of its power: most of France, the Iberian peninsula, Croatia; all of northern Africa; the southern US, Central America incl. Mexico, the former Inca empire and all of South America north of the Tropic of Capricorn; and India. Not too bad, eh?

Not at all, I'll take a look. But I was thinkin more along the lines of a nation-state, where the majority of the people are actually Italian.

Originally Posted by Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy

http://it.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonialismo_italiano (You guys can read Italian, can't you?)

Si! Avanti, Patria! (un po, al meno)
That stuff is pretty, err... optimistic, to say the least. especially since in Versailles the Allies went back on all their promises and gave them a few islands, some desert, and a little addition to Somalia (Trans-Giuba) as payment for all their work.

Jim

[Abdul Hadi Pasha]

The whole Ottoman Empire? Italy is the one power that would have no chance against the Ottomans.

Anyway, with the right chain of events, Italy could end up with Tunisia - it was the realistic fear of this happening that prompted France to occupy it - and one that has happened Libya seems a real prospect, since nobody else really wanted it. From there, penetration into the interior of the Sahara is possible, but it would require massive resources, as Italy wasn't able to subdue Libya until the 1930s, and had to pretty much wipe out the population of Cyrenaica to accomplish this - however, Cyrenaica isn't necessary for expeditions to the Lake Chad region, just Fezzan, which is easier.

On the Horn of Africa, if the Italians hadn't crashed and burned against Ethiopia, it's possible to see that becoming part of the Italian Empire.

Other than that, not much.

So:

Eritrea
Ethiopia
Somalia
Libya
Tunis
Chad
Most of Niger
Parts of northern Nigeria

That will not be a terribly profitable empire, although the Ethiopian trade is worth something, and Tunis could probably at least pay for itself.

Originally Posted by DValdron

Hmmm.

The simplest way would be for the new Italian state, somewhere between 1860 and 1910 conquer and take over the Ottoman Empire. That would give them Turkey, Cypress, Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Jordan. Iraq and Kuwait. From there, move into the Arabian peninsula - Yemen, Oman, the current Saudi Arabia. With a bit (a lot of luck), they might take Persia.

At that point, they're pushing up against British and Russian territories, and they aren't going to be pushing those guys around.

In Africa, they might take Tunis. I think that they were angling for Tunis and the French scooped them at the last minute. From Tunisia and Libya, they could penetrate deep into the Sahara, as far as Chad and Mali before they start running up against French interests.

Ethiopia, they might well take that on the first, or a subsequent try.

Egypt, unlikely as hell. The Brits were too deep, too early. Not even the French could squeeze in.

Beyond that, they might, if they were on top of things, get in on the scramble for Pacific Islands. Or push for an Italian Sphere of Influence and maybe some trade concessions in China. But the only uneaten country in the far east was Thailand. It's remotely possible that the Italians might have come up the middle on that one.

No real chances for expansion in the Americas.

I dunno. I could see a timeline where Italy usurps the Ottoman possessions, takes Tunisia and Ethiopia.... but everything after that is a pretty hard sell.