1973 Arab Israeli war alternate scenario

I am new to the Discussion board and wanted to see if i had what it takes to come up with a [FONT=&quot]feasible senario as to what would happen if the Soviet Union had gotten involved in the 1973 Arab Israeli War. This is just the beginning of what i have and its an ongoing work so bear with me as i am new at this. Here goes
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1973 Arab Israeli war alternate scenario
A war between a coalition of forces consisting of Iraq, Syria, and Egypt attacked Israel on October 6th 1973. This is an alternate scenario as to what would have happened if the Soviet Union decided to back the Arab nations against Israel and the outcome of this war if the United States decided to back Israel. This starts at the point where Leonid Brezhnev offered assistance if the IDF (Israeli defense forces) did not cease hostilities in the area. The scenario starts at the turning point where the IDF turns the tide against the Arab coalition.

October 15th 1973 operation Valiant begins with General Arial Sharon leading the 143rd Armored Division and the 162nd Armored Division led by General Adan. The IDF takes advantage of a weak point in Egyptian lines allowing them to advance towards the Suez Canal.
October 16th 1973 Leonid Brezhnev is stunned at the speed at which the IDF recovers from the massive surprise attack that Egypt, Syria and Iraq have sprung on Israel and gives the green light on operation Summer Cossack. The Soviet VDV is placed on high alert and moved to southern staging areas in Bulgaria and Georgia in preparation for a massive airborne assault through the Golan Heights in support of Syria. Several new An-22’s as well as a three brigade of aviation units of Mi-6 and AN-12s are brought into the region as well.
Soviet Naval forces in the Black Sea in the form of 30th Surface Warship division, the 197th Amphibious Ship Brigade, and the newly formed 418th Minesweeper Battalion are sortied to the Mediterranean Sea as well
NATO intelligence warns the United States that Brezhnev may make a move and send forces into the region to force some type of cease fire between the combatants but advisors take the stance that the Soviets would not be foolish enough to enter into a conflict that could erupts into world war three.
Three Battalions of Spetznas special operators are readying for a pre dawn raid in the Golan Heights as well as the Sinai Peninsula to support three Divisional Red Army groups being brought in from Kazakhstan and from Uzbekistan
October 19th 1963 03:30 am several AN-12s fly in at nap of the earth to avoid being detected by IDF radar stations in the Golan Heights.
06:40 am: Syrian Armored Groups meet up and form a protective ring around the landing zones the VDV are using to rally forces and implement the opening of Summer Cossack
While the Soviet VDV groups are landing several Lebanese citizens witness the 197th land several amphibious ships and disembark large amounts of soviet troops, armored personnel carriers as well as tons of supplies to be used in the massive operation unfolding in the Middle East. By now NATOs intelligence assessment has been proven to be totally wrong and all NATO and US Forces in Europe go on a high level of alert fearing that the conflict may be a pre cursor to an all out attack in Europe. Israel is in shock to find out that the Soviet Union has entered the conflict and is now contemplating a wider more intense conflict in their own back yard.
Egyptian Divisions began to dig in as regiments flown in from Kazakhstan begin to arrive in place to reinforce the beleaguered armored groups that have been taking a pounding the past several hours at the hand of Gen Sharon and his armored division. Gen Sharon becomes aware through military Intel that Soviet Forces are now involved in the fight for the Sinai area and that more forces are landing in his rear area due to lines of communication being cut and reports of special operation troops attacking command and control units in his division as well as Gen Adan’s 162nd division.
I would be open to any contructive critique that would help me make this senario a little more authentic. Any suggestions?
 

The Sandman

Banned
To get from the Soviet Union, they have to fly over either NATO member Turkey or US and Israeli ally Iran. Interdiction will occur, the balloon will go up, and the Middle East is only distinguished by starting to glow in the dark a few minutes earlier than elsewhere.

Let me repeat: open Soviet intervention would have triggered World War Three. And the Soviets only cared about Israel in so far as it offered an opportunity to use the Arab militaries as test subjects for Soviet weaponry, and in so far as they could get cash from the Arabs in exchange for the downgraded export gear the USSR sold on the world market.

So the Soviets are risking almost certain war with NATO for a conflict they don't care about. Why?
 
Welcome to the board Sneed! I wish I had a word of encouragement for you on this scenario, but I agree w/the Sandman - open Soviet intervention in the '73 Arab-Israeli War would have triggered WWIII.
 

Thande

Donor
In fact I seem to recall a TL (not here, possibly on one of the sites Ian linked to from the now defunct main page) which had just that happening, and used it as one of the less common triggers for WW3. In that TL the United States won quite overwhelmingly, though not without being bloodied a few times - don't know enough about the period to tell if that was Ameriwank or realistic. Anyone seen Amerigo Vespucci recently?
 
Likely additions:

October 17th. Israel's government protests the intervention of Soviet Forces against its country. Soviet Diplomats are ejected, and Israel breaks off all diplomatic ties with the Soviet Union. Israel also contacts the United States for further support, and the USA agrees to rush aid to Israel.

October 19th. After repeated warnings, NATO Air Forces in Turkey begin shooting down Soviet Aircraft flying into Israel. While this has the effect of blunting the Soviet attack against Israel, it is perhaps the opening shots of WWIII. The Soviet Union's insane middle east adventure has lead to a large scale air battle against NATO. US issues Ultimatum for the Soviet Union to cease its activities against Israel, expiring on October 21st.

October 21st. The Soviet Union rejects the US Ultimatum to pull out of the Middle East. Turkey closes off the Bosphorous to the Soviet Union, leaving Soviet Forces in the region without reinforcement against Israel and other US Allies in the region. The Soviet Union's closure of road links to Berlin leads to open fighting on the Inter-German Border.

October 25th. A Soviet drive on Istanbul takes the city at heavy cost. Meanwhile, Soviet Forces push through the Fulda Gap and begin their advance to the Rhine, although slowed by cold temperatures.

Decemeber 4th. Soviet Forces close on the Rhine river, NATO makes the decision to use tactical nuclear weapons. By this point, the Middle East situation is over. Egypt, Syria and Jordan have all sued for terms in a war that's clearly spiraled out of all control. Lebanon has simply collapsed.

December 7th. Soviet Forces bridge the Rhine across Bonn. France initiates a nuclear exchange that will lead to two thousand megatons of nuclear detonations to follow. In his bunker below the ruins of Moscow, Leonid Brezhnev is shoved against a wall and shot by the KGB, but far to late to save their country.
 
As I remember there was restrictions on the passage of Soviet warships through the Bosporus/Dardanelles. Any such movement of large units would in itself have been a provocation of NATO naval forces in the Med.
Its just as ASB as large scale movement by air of VDV troops through NATO and Iranian airspace.
Anyway the Soviets only had the capacity to move a limited number of Para divs (2 I think) and that would just have gone into the IDF meatcutter in the Golan!

BTW welcome to the board. :)
 
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