ITT: Israel wank
- Thread starter ArKhan
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Valdemar II
Banned
More succes in 1948-49 would give them the West Bank and Gaza without all those "pesky"* Palestinians.
Otherwhise no peace with Egypts, it would premit them to keep Sinai.
*Sarcasm
Otherwhise no peace with Egypts, it would premit them to keep Sinai.
*Sarcasm
1950s: Israel decides to integrate the Arab Israelis more into the country. Upon seeing the successes and reduction of tensions brought about by this, Israel starts to do the same to the Palestinians and unites Israel and Palestine by the early 90s. Meanwhile, a strong military and good Israeli treatment toward the Palestinians result in Arab nations not bothering Israel. With its strong economy, Israel joins the European Union in the late 90s.
General Zod
Banned
Not if they manage to expel the Palestinians from that land and colonize it instead, quite the contrary.
The 1948-49 war is the key, if they manage to get more decisive military successes on the Jordanian front, most of the Palestinian population if the West Bank too shall flee/be forced out by Arabs/own leaders/Sionists (in verious proportions according to the sources you believe to). So they get all of the cis-Jordan Palestine mandate, with a limited, manageable rsidual Arab minority. They get a nice natural border on the Jordan. The Palestinian resettle en masse in Jordan, where they become the large majority. In due time, during the 1950s, they kick out the king and turn Jordan into another nationalist Arab state like Syria, Iraq, and Egypt, and defacto Palestinian homeland. They join Egypt and Syria in several revanchist wars in the 1960s-1980s, which they will all lose badly. Since the Palestianians are now an hostile nation beyond the Jordan broder and not an insurgent minority, the Israeli military has much less problems keeping them at bay. Eventually they accept the military impossibility of a reconquest much like Egypt did, and settle down to develop Jordan.
A possible PoD, dear to my hardcore pro-Israeli Germanophile heart: WWII is cut short in 1943-44 when the German generals oust the Nazis and make a conditional surrender to the Anglo-Americans. Millions more of European Jews survive, they relocate en mass to the Sionist homeland and the massively expanded Sionist manpower kick Arab armies beyond the Jordan.
I think the 50's is a little early to try and start pro-citizenship drives with the Arabs because A) The War and the clean up work after are still fresh in the mind and B) You have hundreds of thousands of Jewish refugees who actually like you to integrate first.
My PoD would be Faisal-Weizmann goes through and leads to a binational Israel/Arabia with Israel consisting of OTL Israel/Palestine and bits of Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt and Arabia consisting of OTL Lebanon, Jordan, Syria, Iraq and the rest of the Arabian Peninsula. Between the capital, European technology and Jewish minds the Jews bring in and the natural resources and zeal for building a state the Arabs bring in it quickly becomes a country of the first world and by the 50's/60's a high end regional power.
IIRC there were lot of Palestinians in the West Back and Gaza that were preparing to leave when a series of radio broadcasts from the Irealites convinced them to stay.
The Decision to try to convince the Palestinians to stay was a very close one, and easy to POD.
My POD for a greater Isreal would be a Purchase of the Sinai by the Jewish Authority in the 1930's. Say 150 million, 75 Mill to Egypt, the other 75 under the table to King Faisal and his cronies.
I've had pro-settler folks say it was in fact Dayan's decision to ensure there was not a refugee flight away from the West Bank that was such a problem though IMO I'm uncertain whether that would be so helpful; could Israel politically relinguish enough land in 1967 for a peace deal--I'm uncertain. I agree in terms of most secure Israel the best way is probably to hold the West Bank in 1949. Another interesting possibility is an earlier rapprochement with Jordan (it was a long time coming) in say the 1950s (low probability I think). An interesting POD is Jordan not attacking in 1967. I'm not sure what the result would be (for Israel to be viable it needs resource sharing agreements with both Jordan and Syria so the water in the Golan, Kinneret, Jordan Valley and the West Bank are all available) but it could't hurt--the settlement enterprise is enormously problematic for all kinds of reasons.
The best case scenario (plausibility-wise) is basically an Arafat* who accepts a workable Camp David Agreement. All the other scenarios, save perhaps Jordan not attacking in '67, seems very unlikely. Indeed the Israel controls the whole mandate scenario is highly unlikely because the Arab Legion was actually skilled. That being said a different 1948, particularly a unlikely victory at Latrun and Israel holding on to the Old City at the end of the war would be helpful for Israeli security. Another, more intriguing possibility (assuming the goal is Israel and not a binational state), is a different post-WWI arrangement whereby some sort of Arab state is formed rather then mandates, and an accompanying Jewish state is formed alongside the Arab state. This would help make Israel's security being dependent on the Arab state, rather then the rather more complex scenario in place today.
Alas none of these are terribly high probability (indeed IMO a binational state is unworkable for all kinds of reasons, and was likely to degenerate into a similar situation to what we have today).
The best case scenario (plausibility-wise) is basically an Arafat* who accepts a workable Camp David Agreement. All the other scenarios, save perhaps Jordan not attacking in '67, seems very unlikely. Indeed the Israel controls the whole mandate scenario is highly unlikely because the Arab Legion was actually skilled. That being said a different 1948, particularly a unlikely victory at Latrun and Israel holding on to the Old City at the end of the war would be helpful for Israeli security. Another, more intriguing possibility (assuming the goal is Israel and not a binational state), is a different post-WWI arrangement whereby some sort of Arab state is formed rather then mandates, and an accompanying Jewish state is formed alongside the Arab state. This would help make Israel's security being dependent on the Arab state, rather then the rather more complex scenario in place today.
Alas none of these are terribly high probability (indeed IMO a binational state is unworkable for all kinds of reasons, and was likely to degenerate into a similar situation to what we have today).
Dan Reilly The Great
Banned
i tend to think that Israel is pretty well wanked already, considering it's size, population, and the fact that it is surrounded by countries who all want nothing more than to wipe it off the face of the earth, and finally that it has won every conflict it has fought since its inception and (I believe) done so quite handily each time; I would say that's pretty wank
CanadianGoose
Banned
Keep Wingate around. This is classical, Asimov-like (as in "The End of Eternity", single tiny change creating an avalanche of consequences) POD. With this fella around, Israel is likely to conquer all Mandate Palestine (and Jordan would be extremely likely if it would be left alone, Wingate considered Transjordan territory part of "Jewish ancestral land") and send local Arabs away. This will at least eliminate "Gaza" and "West Bank" problems. After that, one can go as far as one is willing to go. Territory-wise, Mandate + Sinai East of Mitla Pass + Golan Heights to Quneitra + Southern Lebanon to Littani + Jordan up to (and possibly including) Amman is probably as far as wank can go, taking into account geopolitical realities. Population-wise, would USSR "let the People go" sometimes in 1950s, Israel can count on up to 2 mln. new citizen, with almost all males from 20 to 60 being either WWII vets or possessing recent military training.
The Ottomans could certainly try something. Didn't they run a saner Palestine? If they could make a deal with Jews, the British, and the Palestinians, then maybe this could all work. With magic fairy dust, of course.
Oh, and Zionism* needs to be downgraded to a extremely fringe movement. I suspect that's at least one reason.
*The extremist movement. I'm pro-Israel insofar as to the belief that Israel should exist in a secure manner, but not necessarily as a homeland for JUST Jews.
While I am unaware of any Jewish-Ottoman dealings as I mentioned earlier there was a a deal cut between the Sharif of Mecca (via his son) and the soon to be president of the World Zionist Organization that would have led to a peaceful Israel actually a bit larger then OTL's.