A Shift in Priorities

[rast]

I think myself that we have more machinery of government than is necessary, too many parasites living on the labor of the industrious.
(Thomas Jefferson)

While in Atlanta, Georgia, Huey Pierce Long and his fellow party members were trying to compile something lika a common platform for cobbling together the Southern States again, in Washington, D. C., Secretary of Treasury Harry Lloyd Hopkins was discussing very bleak matters with Secretary of Commerce Henry Agard Wallace. US economy was no longer collapsing, it had already collapsed. State revenues were in free fall. That were the unpleasant facts. – Both were certain that the economy would recover sooner or later, it recovered after every crisis. And somehow and somewhen the fiscal authorities would succeed in making people pay their due taxes. But right now, one was on the rocks.

People had stopped buying; they were trading goods in kind – which flushed no money into the treasury. People had also stopped paying taxes, at least beyond the boundaries of their respective communities. – Everything that was public funded had already been stopped. One was just printing enough money to account for the salaries of federal employees. The general effect, however, was not so striking as one might think. – Obviously, that mad biker chieftain, Bradley, was not completely wrong when he claimed that the US afforded too much federal agencies.

Most Americans seemed to manage quite well – in absence of federal benefactions. The two men agreed that this was good US tradition. The individual and the family were the nucleus of American society; and personal initiative had always been the driving factor. – Looking at it that way, there was no reason for worry. – The US were going to recover. – But it meant that for an indefinite period of time the US had to resign acting as an important power in the international concert of nations.

Yes, one would probably fall behind, at least initially, because there was going to be no public spending for research and development. One would also be unable to invest in modern armaments. – Young promising people might be attracted by the glitter of nations over the sea. – But a country the size of the US and with the natural resources of the US simply had to prosper over time. And there was no imminent foreign threat to the US...

The big bucks would move away. The super-moneyed could have no interest in the transitional economy that was evolving. As the concentration of money represented by them was unnatural – when compared with the ideals of the founding fathers – this was perhaps beneficial for a sound restart. – The two men did not consider the question of the US Negroes, they formed about eleven percent of the total population, at least according to the US census of 1930. They were no normal Americans, not capable like white men. Well, perhaps a solution could be found in future...

The Democrats wouldn’t have any say in that restart. About this both men agreed. Hopkins had already made contacts with the CUP, while Wallace was thinking of joining the FLP. – The tradition of electing a US President was so strong that it would overcome even the present fragmentation – most probably, one hoped. It depended on the Republicans, their party machine was still reasonably intact. Without President, the US truly were going to fall apart...

[Monty Burns]

Well, considering black Americans: they are welcome in Mittelafrika, the British colonies, the Protectorate - and also Europe. And if the US leave their Carribean colonies, those would accept black American immigrants as well. If nobody stops them and racism continues, many will leave. Yet another instance of resettlement ITTL.

[Rooster Cogburn]

I still think we need Patton in 1936; it'll take someone with his attitude to repair the country, not just some political party-hack.

[Bmao]

Originally Posted by Monty Burns

Well, considering black Americans: they are welcome in Mittelafrika, the British colonies, the Protectorate - and also Europe. And if the US leave their Carribean colonies, those would accept black American immigrants as well. If nobody stops them and racism continues, many will leave. Yet another instance of resettlement ITTL.

While few white Americans would miss the blacks, where is the US Government going to get the money to arrange for the transport of about 15 million African Americans? That would rank by far as the biggest program of ethnic cleansing ever attempted, and while it could be an idle dream for some southern party hacks, the logistics alone would make it impossible. However, that being said, we've already seen many of the more educated African Americans immigrate to the West AFrican Protectorate and I look for that to continue throughout the 1930s and into the 40s or whenever the US finally recovers from their disaster.

[nicholas235]

Hey Rast, first time poster.
Any way, I have a few quick questions.
How long has McAdoo been President? What is happening with the investigation in the DELAG crash in Greenland? And how is atomic/computer/rocket research going?
Thanks.

[NHBL]

Prior to the Civil War, it was common to speak of the USA in the plural--the United States are great, for example. Afterwards, it generally became singular, reflecting the single nation, "The Unites States is building a new fleet."

Hopkins and Wallace are using the plural for the country-this perhaps is a bad sign, as, at some level, they're thinking of a fragmented nation as the path of the future, ot a minor glitch...

[Bmao]

Originally Posted by nicholas235

Hey Rast, first time poster.
Any way, I have a few quick questions.
How long has McAdoo been President? What is happening with the investigation in the DELAG crash in Greenland? And how is atomic/computer/rocket research going?
Thanks.

Ever since 1928 unfortunately... By far, the worst president any TL has ever seen. A worse Great Depression, a pointless war with Mexico, War with the European Powers, War in the Phillippines, the near collapse of American society, revolt in Hawaii, MittelAfrikan sponsored terrorism in the United States, Omar Bradley's Grunts, the drug war, the massacre in Washington DC, the list goes on and on.

As for atomic research, with the probable lack of a 2nd World War in this TL, we're probably not going to see the atom bomb until at least the mid 1950s and I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't later. Germany's far along in the research of rockets, about the same as OTL so far but without the Nazi madness.

In any case, its clear that the conventional politicians don't have any creative answers as to how to solve the crisis and get America out of its rut. They're hoping that 'splendid isolation means there is no imminent threat' and that eventually the US economy is going to recover because it can't get any worse right? Plus, the talk of ethnically cleansing the blacks in the US speaks of absolute madness. About 100,000 disgrunted Japanese Hawaiians whose loyalty to the US has obviously been shown to be suspect is one thing, but ten million African Americans is another thing all together.

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by Bmao

While few white Americans would miss the blacks, where is the US Government going to get the money to arrange for the transport of about 15 million African Americans? That would rank by far as the biggest program of ethnic cleansing ever attempted, and while it could be an idle dream for some southern party hacks, the logistics alone would make it impossible. However, that being said, we've already seen many of the more educated African Americans immigrate to the West AFrican Protectorate and I look for that to continue throughout the 1930s and into the 40s or whenever the US finally recovers from their disaster.

I don't think that any official institution in the US will promote that emmigration or even pay for it. But didn't we hear that this emmigration is currently fought by government agencies? As you said, the educated ones already go. They'll pay for relatives to follow. There might also be foundations of emmigrants that pay for that, particularly from more dangerous regions as in the South. History showed that poor people always found a way to go to the US. Now they'll have to find a way out of it.

[DarkAvenger]

Originally Posted by Bmao

Ever since 1928 unfortunately... By far, the worst president any TL has ever seen.

And that's probably a new record.

How is Canada taking this, by the way? I know they'll suffer, but to what extent?

[Expat]

I went back and checked Rast's figure of 11% and realized he's raised it from OTL's 9.7%. This makes sense, given that large-scale immigration to the US was stopped early, and also given the disruption to the white birthrate caused by larger-scale induction into the military. The Muddled Generation of vets who refused to settle down afterward don't help, nor does the credit-raised younger generation, who will more likely follow a pattern closer to more modern OTL generations and forgo children in favor of education, at least for a while. 11% might even be conservative. It could even be quite wrong, given how spotty the census records might be around African American communities.

The population will also probably be more concentrated. The Great Migration north never occurred ITTL, or was at least drastically curtailed. We've seen that the production jobs that lured African Americans to Chicago and Detroit are available in places like Norfolk and Mobile ITTL. Just for a visualization, here's a map of the African American population as a percentage of each state IOTL 1920 (made by a friend of mine.)

Urban fighting in places like Pittsburgh and New York seems like it's probably the worst thing happening in the country, but the South is where the real carnage is going on.

[rast]

No-one really thought of fission before its discovery.
(Lise Meitner)

What Otto Hahn, the director of the radiochemical department of the Kaiser-Wilhelm-Institut, Enrico Fermi, the estimeed visiting scholar from Italy, and Fritz Straßmann, Hahn’s assistant, had really done on Wednesday, March 4th, 1936, remained rather obscure – until Lise Meitner and her assistant Ida Eva Noddack, asked by Otto Hahn to make a rhyme of it, explained it a month later, after Straßmann had determined that the product of their work were not isotopes of radium but of barium: nuclear fission!

This discovery led to a flurry of publications. Irène Curie, who had moved from Metz to Paris in 1935, and Niels Bohr in Copenhagen contributed important papers and ideas, as did Ernest Rutherford in Montreal. – Nevertheless, there remained the question what to do with this invention. Fundamental research was fine and dandy, but without practical application no generous funding for further research would be forthcoming.

It was the German Navy which now came into play. Riding high on innovative technology ever since the Great War, the Kaiserliche Marine quickly became interested: might there be a new source of fuel for men of war making them independent from oil supply for months – if not years? While EVEG and German mining industry remained indifferent for the time being, the Navy tendered several rewarding contracts with the Kaiser-Wilhelm-Institut. The path that was to lead to the development of nuclear reactors had just been entered.

[Whumbly]

Originally Posted by rast

No-one really thought of fission before its discovery.
(Lise Meitner)

What Otto Hahn, the director of the radiochemical department of the Kaiser-Wilhelm-Institut, Enrico Fermi, the estimeed visiting scholar from Italy, and Fritz Straßmann, Hahn’s assistant, had really done on Wednesday, March 4th, 1936, remained rather obscure – until Lise Meitner and her assistant Ida Eva Noddack, asked by Otto Hahn to make a rhyme of it, explained it a month later, after Straßmann had determined that the product of their work were not isotopes of radium but of barium: nuclear fission!

This discovery led to a flurry of publications. Irène Curie, who had moved from Metz to Paris in 1935, and Niels Bohr in Copenhagen contributed important papers and ideas, as did Ernest Rutherford in Montreal. – Nevertheless, there remained the question what to do with this invention. Fundamental research was fine and dandy, but without practical application no generous funding for further research would be forthcoming.

It was the German Navy which now came into play. Riding high on innovative technology ever since the Great War, the Kaiserliche Marine quickly became interested: might there be a new source of fuel for men of war making them independent from oil supply for months – if not years? While EVEG and German mining industry remained indifferent for the time being, the Navy tendered several rewarding contracts with the Kaiser-Wilhelm-Institut. The path that was to lead to the development of nuclear reactors had just been entered.

Nuclear powered ships... cool to think of and scary to think what would happen if the reactor was hit.

[wietze]

it is only a matter of time now until someone thinks of a bomb....

and with the navy coming into play, many things from now on will disappear behind the veil of secrecy.

pity Lise didn't have a bigger role in it though.

[altamiro]

Originally Posted by wietze

it is only a matter of time now until someone thinks of a bomb....

and with the navy coming into play, many things from now on will disappear behind the veil of secrecy.

pity Lise didn't have a bigger role in it though.

Actually I don't think it will be as secret as a bomb research. The idea of power generation will be out in the open very quickly, and the secrecy will be rather about _how_ to build an optimal reactor instead about it's existence.

A bomb may well stay on a back burner for decades - and it may well be that the research leads to a neutron bomb, as a battlefield weapon to stop massed armor, first before really going into the realm of strategic warhead sizes.

[Expat]

Honestly I'm rooting for MAD ITTL. Nuclear deterrent would be preferable to wave after wave of revanchist warfare.

[Monty Burns]

To all those experts: did early nuclear research see this much international cooperation IOTL? It's not stated explicitly, but I guess the Kaiser Wilhelm institute will not do a purely national project but one where researchers at least from all over Europe can participate and share results.

[Jotun]

In any case, it is nice to see the degree of international scientific cooperation. Sooner or later, however, somebody will find out about the possibility of weaponizing nuclear power and then, at the latest, somebody else is going to slap a lid on it. Hard. Let's just hope the stuff will never be used for such nefarious purposes ITTL.

[Bmao]

Originally Posted by Jotun

In any case, it is nice to see the degree of international scientific cooperation. Sooner or later, however, somebody will find out about the possibility of weaponizing nuclear power and then, at the latest, somebody else is going to slap a lid on it. Hard. Let's just hope the stuff will never be used for such nefarious purposes ITTL.

Got you there. I mean, could you imagine what could happen if nations like TTL USA or MittelAfrika were to get a hold of nuclear weaponry?

Again, while the prospect of nuclear energy would become applicable, without a WWII I'm not so sure we'd see it made into a weapon until far later than OTL.

[wietze]

don't underestimate the power of the military to see a weapon in anything.

[Monty Burns]

Originally Posted by Bmao

Got you there. I mean, could you imagine what could happen if nations like TTL USA or MittelAfrika were to get a hold of nuclear weaponry?

Actually, I think that TTL has a much higher chance of using nuclear power. There are more wars between great powers although less international ones. And then TTL sees a multi-polar world with many larger power blocks that each individually are all able to develop and build nuclear weapons (or will be soon). Even Mittelafrika has a chance to develop nuclear weapons rather soon unlike any African country IOTL (it would be a waste of money on the military as the battleships but well...).

Before the invention of ICBMs and the buildup of large stockpiles of bombs and hence the establishment of MAD, I fear that using nuclear bombs in such "local" wars between two blocs is much more likely. The war between Russia and China could see the first usage - although that might be too early. Maybe we see rocketry developped earlier as well up to a point where weapons of mass destruction are delivered by rockets before nuclear warheads come into practice?