Texas loses

My son, age 11, asked me yesterday what would have happened if Texas had lost its war of independence.

I just did a search for "texas independence", figuring that those two words would show up in any such timeline, and I don't see ANY timeline discussing a FAILURE of the Texian revolution.

Have we never discussed this?

I don't know enough of Mexico or Texas at this time to speculate, so what do others think?

I'm shocked this hasn't come up before. Remember, Santa Anna had a professional army and Texas didn't; this is a real possibility.

Well, Texas will remain part of Mexico for the time being. I see Santa Anna trying to kick out the gringos and move his own people in but I just don't see that working. The whole area is in turmoil and the US will probably have to send in the army to protect its citizens. Thus the US-Mexican War takes place 12 years earlier, with the same result but probably greater US casulties.

Texas would become part of the US then and there, but would probably still wind up joining the Confederacy in 1861.

Just my 2 cents...

I recall reading one when I was a lurker. It involved Santa Anna using Blacks and trying to upset the slave system.

Try and look up "Texas Liberia" or something similar.

well, Santa Anna's basic goal was to first put a complete halt to American immigration, and then revoke Texas' unique tax and customs laws (basically, lighter than the other Mexican provinces). He probably wouldn't have slaughtered Yankees far and wide, but he would have undoubtedly hung most of the rebel leaders. Finally, IIRC, his ultimate plan was to combine Texas with Coahuila to make a (admittedly huge) province with a population that was barely sufficient for representation in the Mexican government. I don't think it's likely that the US government would intervene any sooner than they did in OTL, because (although there was a lot of sympathy for Davy Crockett) many Americans felt that the whole Texas rebellion was a plot by slaveowners to expand the slave-holding states (even this early, slavery was a hot button issue)...

Nothing covering this? That's a bit weird. It's mentioned in The Difference Engine that Texas hasn't joined the USA, but that's the closest I can think of.

Forget the Alamo?

One consequence would have been that there would have been nl slavery in Texas an Santa Anna wanted to abolish slavery, a major cause of the revolt. The defenders of the Alamo would have been forgotten.

Would the United States have annexed Texas, probably not so there would have been no war of 1846-8 and no land grab of California. Texas was only annexed as congress would not admit slave states to the union and annexation was a way round. With no Texas, the Confederacy would have been smaller and Joe Hood wouldn't have been able to play hell in Tenesse. A shorter civil war and no Zimmerman cable.

How could the Texas settlers have been defeated? by Loosing the Battle of San Jacinto. Jackson loses in 1832 and Clay is elected and volunteers are discouraged from going to Texas to fight. Santa Anna is better organuised and posts pickets during the siesta and has some troops ready for combat or Santa Anna attacks earlier. The Yellow Rose of Texas doesn't distract Santa Anna's officers as in the folk lore.

Or earlier still Mexico doesn't pass its General Colonization law in 1824

Andrew Hudson said:

One consequence would have been that there would have been nl slavery in Texas an Santa Anna wanted to abolish slavery, a major cause of the revolt.

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not really. SA did make a lot of noise about slavery while in TX, but the fact was, Mexico had ways around their anti-slavery laws (the main one was the 99 year indentured servant contract)... plus, out and out slavery existed among the wealthy of Mexico, who paid to have Indian children swiped and raised to be 'exotic' house servants... the main reasons behind the revolt were strikingly similar to the ones behind the ARW... the colonists had been basically ignored by the central government for decades, had light customs and taxes, and then the central govt. finally took notice of them and decided to clamp down on them... the main reasons behind the revolt were economic and political; slavery had little to do with it...

My impression was largely based on HG Wells's Short History of the World. However going back slightly further in history suppose the federalists had been in power with congress not electing Santa Anna in Pedraza's place and Santa Anna had remained loyal to the Federalists who supported him and not abrogated the constitution maybe the settlers could have lived in a more decentralised Mexico however that would have meant no rebellion and would render the question irrelevant

Lord above, if only the Texans had lost their War of Independence. I imagine that it would have to happen at San Jacinto, after which the Mexicans would be involved in several years of guerrila warfare cleaning up the mess...

The Mexicans would then try to go after the gringo aristocracy, though I imagine that most of them would hightail it back to the States. They'd now proved themselves to be double traitors : First they left the US to become Mexicans, then they revolted against Mexican rule after Mexico abolished slavery. They'd have no place in Mexico, so the question is whether or not they'd be able to re-establish themselves in the South?...

Once gold is discovered in California, though, I still see a Mexican-American War in the early 1850s...

bm79 said:

First they left the US to become Mexicans, then they revolted against Mexican rule after Mexico abolished slavery.

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not really. As I noted above, the Mexican abolition of slavery (tenuous as it was) was easily gotten around under the 99 year indentured servant law. The whole problem with Texas began when Santa Anna began to receive reports about the Americans in Texas coming over in droves and claiming huge amounts of land; plus, due to earlier negotiations, Texas had very light taxes and customs duties. Santa Anna declared that he would put an end to both American immigration and the tax exemptions. Naturally, the Texans were less than pleased, and sought to make their territory an official province of Mexico so they could have representation in its government. Unfortunately for them, Texas lacked the necessary population to do that, and all their attempts were rejected. The last straw for Texas was when Austin himself met with Santa Anna, and seemed to be received on a friendly basis, only to be tossed into jail soon after (mainly due to an optimistic letter sent by him to San Antonio). After that, Texas openly rebelled.

To me, the causes of the Texas revolution was strikingly similar to the ones behind the ARW... a distant province ignored by the central government for a long time, a place that had special tax advantages... a place that rebelled when the central government decided to clamp down on it...