Longer ARW -- British ?Win? at Yorktown

Ok the British Fleet arrives on Time -- The French Fleet is Defeated -- The British Troops at Yorktown are evacuated to New York.
Britian controls the major port cities of Boston, New York, Charlestown and Savanah, Canada and a few other small areas.
The Americans control most of the rest of the Country.

The Americans don't have the Forces needed to Retake the Cities. The British lack the Forces to take and hold the hinderlands.

?How much longer does the War last.? ?And How does it end?

I'd think that the destruction of the French fleet might be the final straw for them, and they'd withdraw from the war... except perhaps, they might continue some level of funding. At this point, the rebels have won the war in the south, and do hold Philadelphia, but the Brits can march and take anywhere they please... they just can't hold all that much. I have to wonder if a couple more years of this might not just tip the balance in London in favor of negotiating a peace...

Savannah was NOT a major port. The brits did not hold Boston. they had NY and CHarleston. Even if Cornwallis is rescued, his army was all beaten up and in bad shape. ANd except for Charleston all of SOuth Carolina was once again patriot controled. Any way you look at it the southern campaign had not been a real success. With the failure of the 77 campaign, and then the 81 campaign, the brits were back to the starting line again. And they still had to worry about France and Spain. So really you have to wonder if it would have made all that much difference except to maybe delay the real peace talks for another year.

So it is late summer 1781,
Charleston and NY are under seige,
The Spanish control the entire Florida Panhandle, and have retaken Tampa. They also have troops in the Bahamas.
The US wants one more Target, to finally push the British to the peace table.
?Do Whe try Canada again?

I had been thinking of reworking a timeline I did over at othertimelines.com where such a win causes the U.S. to make some trades at the peace table, as both sides would be so exhaustedThe British would give up New York in exchange for retaining the Carolinas and Georgia, and finally having peace. Is this a reasonable scenario? Any other way the British could keep the southern portion? I'm thinking the U.S. still gets the Northwest Territory and what would be Kentucky in it.

That could be the best way to answer the "u.S. outlaws slavery wtihout a Civil War" TL, though how the British South responds to the outlwing of slavery would be interesting. (And, what happens to Florida - the British might keep East Florida in such a scenario, perhaps?)

The first change would be that Lord North's government would survive and Britain would not seek peace talks. The war would carry on and a few gains for Britain and the moderates in the Continental Congress would have gained the upper hand and provided Britain moderated her attitude. Any Canadian invasion would have failed as the earlier ones did and the war would have ended on more favourable terms for Britain maybe representation at Westminster as in For want of a nail. Stronger self government or possibly British North America as in the Two Georges.Lord North would not have gone down in history as Britain's worst prime minister

I had been thinking of reworking a timeline I did over at othertimelines.com where such a win causes the U.S. to make some trades at the peace table, as both sides would be so exhausted The British would give up New York in exchange for retaining the Carolinas and Georgia, and finally having peace. Is this a reasonable scenario? Any other way the British could keep the southern portion? I'm thinking the U.S. still gets the Northwest Territory and what would be Kentucky in it.

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By 1781 too much water was under the bridge,
While Britain controlled some major cities, and was able to project Military power into the Rural areas, It had lost all Political Power over the Rural areas,[both North & South] and was losing Political Authority in those Cities it did control.
My OP question was about how long Britain would Hang on in the Face of this. And what it would take to make Britain face the truth.

Washington has gambled at Yorktown. The British have 35,000 men with their main field forces:

Clinton's Army at New York, NY: 16,500
Cornwallis' Army at Yorktown, Va: 9,000
Leslie's Army at Charleston, SC: 10,000

Washington had brought his main field force of 16,000 against Yorktown (half Continental, half French). He'd left ca. 7,000 facing Clinton and Greene had

Regimental Orbat of the Continental Army (excluding Regiments captured by the British or furloughed by the State of Pennsylvania):

Main Army (Washington)
1st Maryland Brigade (1st and 2nd Maryland)
2nd Maryland Brigade (3rd and 4th Maryland)
New Jersey Brigade (1st Rhode Island, 1st and 2nd New Jersey)
New York Brigade (1st and 2nd New York)
Light Division (3 brigades consisting of the Canadian Battalion and the converged Light Infantry of nearly the entire Continental Army)
Cavalry (1st and 2nd Partisan and 4th Legionary Corps)
plus 7 all French infantry regiments, all the French cavalry and artillery (a French Regiment was larger than a Continental Brigade)

Southern Army (Greene)
3rd Maryland Brigade (5th Maryland and 1st Delaware) - was not present with the army but was in Md guarding the LoCs of the main army (from which it was detached)
1st Pennsylvania Brigade (1st Pa and the remaining 2 coys of 2nd Pa) - again, in NJ
Cavalry (1st and 3rd Legionary Corps)

Highlands Army (i.e. facing NY) (McDougall)
1st Connecticut Brigade (1st, 3rd and 5th CT)
2nd Connecticut Brigade (2nd and 4th CT)
1st Massachusetts Brigade (1st, 4th and 7th Ma)
2nd Massachusetts Brigade (2nd, 5th and 8th Ma)
3rd Massachusetts Brigade (3rd, 6th and 9th Ma)
New Hampshire Brigade (10th Ma, 1st and 2nd NH)
Cavalry (2nd Legionary Corps)

Aside from Washington, the only major force is the Highland's Army facing NY. This is weaker than it looks on paper, since it has been stripped of it's artillery, cavalry and light troops for Washington's attack on Yorktown. It is about 5,000 bayonets strong on paper, and since it's been pretty stripped won't offer resistance to a major British assault.

DuQuense said:

By 1781 too much water was under the bridge,
While Britain controlled some major cities, and was able to project Military power into the Rural areas, It had lost all Political Power over the Rural areas,[both North & South] and was losing Political Authority in those Cities it did control.
My OP question was about how long Britain would Hang on in the Face of this. And what it would take to make Britain face the truth.

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Ah, I see, thanks; I guess I figured there was still some chance because of the march up the Southern colonies in the latter part of the ARW; I guess my mind was thinking of it like a game of Risk.

Washington has gambled at Yorktown. The British have 35,000 men with their main field forces:

Clinton's Army at New York, NY: 16,500
Cornwallis' Army at Yorktown, Va: 9,000
Leslie's Army at Charleston, SC: 10,000

Washington had brought his main field force of 16,000 against Yorktown (half Continental, half French). He'd left ca. 7,000 facing Clinton and Greene had

Regimental Orbat of the Continental Army (excluding Regiments captured by the British or furloughed by the State of Pennsylvania):

Main Army (Washington)
1st Maryland Brigade (1st and 2nd Maryland)
2nd Maryland Brigade (3rd and 4th Maryland)
New Jersey Brigade (1st Rhode Island, 1st and 2nd New Jersey)
New York Brigade (1st and 2nd New York)
Light Division (3 brigades consisting of the Canadian Battalion and the converged Light Infantry of nearly the entire Continental Army)
Cavalry (1st and 2nd Partisan and 4th Legionary Corps)
plus 7 all French infantry regiments, all the French cavalry and artillery (a French Regiment was larger than a Continental Brigade)

Southern Army (Greene)
3rd Maryland Brigade (5th Maryland and 1st Delaware) - was not present with the army but was in Md guarding the LoCs of the main army (from which it was detached)
Cavalry (1st and 3rd Legionary Corps)

Highlands Army (i.e. facing NY) (McDougall)
1st Connecticut Brigade (1st, 3rd and 5th CT)
2nd Connecticut Brigade (2nd and 4th CT)
1st Massachusetts Brigade (1st, 4th and 7th Ma)
2nd Massachusetts Brigade (2nd, 5th and 8th Ma)
3rd Massachusetts Brigade (3rd, 6th and 9th Ma)
New Hampshire Brigade (10th Ma, 1st and 2nd NH)
Cavalry (2nd Legionary Corps)

Aside from Washington, the only major force is the Highland's Army facing NY. This is weaker than it looks on paper, since it has been stripped of it's artillery, cavalry and light troops for Washington's attack on Yorktown. It is about 5,000 bayonets strong on paper, and since it's been pretty stripped won't offer resistance to a major British assault.

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Given a - the British win [or don't lose -ie evacuate in time] at Yorktown - I don't doubt the British ability to project military power. Or the Continentals inability to stop then in a stand up Battle.
What I doubt is the British ability to project Political power.
Remembre this whole thing started over a Tax dispute. I doubt many in power in [1781~1782] England still thought they could still collect taxes in the rebellious colonies.

I always thought of the Revolution as a war of attrition that Britain just got tired of. In this scenario she may well continue the fight, but for how long? How many times did the British defeat the Americans yet they faught on?

At the most this would buy them two years before they finally sat down and talked peace I'd say.

As a tactical commander, Washington was questionable in his ability, but his ability to inspire people and maintain an army-in-being cannot be doubted. Even in this rosy scenario Washington's army isn't removed from the picture.

The war would go on. The Americans had demonstrated time and again they'd continue fighting despite defeats. Even without Cornwallis surrendring this gives the American colonies a victory to shout from the rooftops. Cornwallis flees before the American army!

I doubt the colonials are going to roll over and die just because they get away. How long will the British aristocracy put up with this running sore is the only real question.

By this point in the ARW, the British have lost what becomes the United States. No amount of troops can change that.

One note that often gets overlooked, was that by Saratoga, the will to continue the war in the Americas was dying, if not nearly dead.

It took the French coming in to relight the fire to fight, at least for a while longer. Even then the real focus had changed to holding on to the West Indies, not retaking the United States.

Cornwallis' Southern campaign had been started on the premise that the South was full of Loyalists that would rise up and flock to support him. That did happen. So after his forces are evacuated from Yorktown, I suspect they wold be earmarked for fighting in the West Indies.

Okay, so the British have little chance of winning the peace in the Colonies, even if they manage to win the war after Yorktown somehow.

What does that mean for the world in terms of butterflies? What does post-war France look like? Does their Revolution happen at all, earlier, later...? What does that lead to?

What's a likely power arrangement for America? The Articles of Confederation have been written already (March, so they're about 8 months old). They're admittably lousy, but they mean there's some kind of theoretical American government so direct British rule or even some kind of Dominion seems unlikely. But if it's a negotiated peace with British forces withdrawing instead of just surrendering after being bottled up and besieged, might a slightly better diplomatic relationship emerge? Does the War of 1812 still happen in some analogue?

DuQuense said:

Given a - the British win [or don't lose -ie evacuate in time] at Yorktown - I don't doubt the British ability to project military power. Or the Continentals inability to stop then in a stand up Battle.
What I doubt is the British ability to project Political power.
Remembre this whole thing started over a Tax dispute. I doubt many in power in [1781~1782] England still thought they could still collect taxes in the rebellious colonies.

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It's not a direct tax, it's an excise duty. That is there is a small levy on imports. There were no new taxes involved in the 1770's, merely a new method of checking that existing excise duty had been paid (by stamping them).

The question of political power is a thorny one. The rebellion is not homogeneous across the country, nor across class. The rebellion is primarily, at least initially, one of the rich upper classes of the country and their own private armies against a crown willing to squeeze their profits (Whigs), and another group of radical republicans. The upper classes were rather effective in squashing the radicals in the 1780's-90's.

I'd guess that if order was reimposed the radicals would flee, but they represent a very small part of the population, the upper classes would simply acquiese to Crown rule and turn back to trying to make a profit.