Abdul Hadi Pasha
Banned
I'm writing a TL in which the Ottomans "win" this war.
In OTL, the Russians were very overconfident, and invaded with an insufficient number of troops, and underestimated the quality of the Ottoman army, which was very experienced, and had just totally overhauled its organization and rearmed with weapons considerably superior to the Russians, particularly rifles, the Ottoman Peabody-Martini outranging the Russians about 3-1, and the Ottoman artillery was armed with steel Krupp cannon as opposed to Russian brass guns.
Another factor was that Turkish soldiers in normal life were generally engaged in terraced agriculture, so were adept at digging trenches and took great pride in doing it right, whereas the Russians tended to be pretty sloppy with theirs. Given the nature of the war, the Ottomans were on the defensive, and that plus the factors I've mentioned led to horrendous casualties on the part of the Russians (more than 4-1 against them), and caused their offensive to screech to a halt at Plevna. After four successive and bloody failures to take the city, Russian morale was at a low, Russian securities had crashed on global markets, making financing for the war unavailable.
In the Ottoman negative column, the army was deployed to deal with insurrection in Bosnia and against Serbia and Montenegro, the former of which had been badly beaten in a rashly declared war. More importantly, at the center there had just been a coup which left the government a bit adrift, as Sultan Abdul Aziz had been replaced by his nephew Murad V, who turned out to be too unstable to rule, leading to his replacement with Abdul Hamid II, still too weak on the throne to exert decisive influence.
Worst of all, the experienced War Minister, Huseyin Avni Pasha, had been assassinated, leaving an 80-something Pasha in charge in Bulgaria, who did pretty much nothing to hinder the Russians, holding back in the fortified areas of Western Bulgaria.
The Russians counted on greater unity of command to win, which paid off.
After being checked at Plevna, large numbers of additional troops were mobilized, dangerously stripping the defenses on the Western borders, and even then, it was a pretty close thing - the audacity of offensive in the Winter through the Balkan mountains threw the Ottomans off-balance and allowed them victory.
In my TL, the War Minister is not assassinated, allowing more intelligent direction of the army, resulting in Russian failure to defeat the Ottomans. In particular, this would mean blowing up the rail bridge near Galatz, organizing opposition to Russian landings across the Danube, and using the army used in Bosnia and Serbia to join up with the main army in Bulgaria (historically the general in command wasted it on frontal assaults against the Russians in the Shipka Pass).
Where I need help is in determining what would happen next. My thoughts:
1. The Powers will step in to resolve the conflict. There will be a settlement that will try to impose as much European control over the Ottomans as possible and provide the Russians with a figleaf to get out.
2. This will include absolute independence for Rumania, Serbia, and Montenegro, some sort of financial arrangement to deal with the Ottoman debt, and will probably try to get territory for at least Montenegro - I think the Ottomans can probably sucessfully fend that off. The Powers will also demand supervised reforms in the Balkans - the Ottomans can probably weasel out of most of that as well.
3. I think the Powers will not think any more highly of Ottoman capabilities, but rather lower their estimates of the Russian military. Nevertheless, this will buy the Ottomans very valuable breathing room to continue reform efforts with much less hindrance from without than in OTL.
4. The Russians are in deep doo-doo. Pan-Slavism is dead, Russian prestie in the Balkans is shattered, and the shock of losing a war to the Ottomans ought to shake the foundations of the Russian polity.
***
The question is, how big an effect will this have on Russia? Could it cause revolt or even revolution? Could the Tsar lose his throne and life? What impact would it have on Russian policy? Would they continue expansion into Central Asia to try to regain prestige, or give up expansion for the time being?
I would appreciate your thoughts.
In OTL, the Russians were very overconfident, and invaded with an insufficient number of troops, and underestimated the quality of the Ottoman army, which was very experienced, and had just totally overhauled its organization and rearmed with weapons considerably superior to the Russians, particularly rifles, the Ottoman Peabody-Martini outranging the Russians about 3-1, and the Ottoman artillery was armed with steel Krupp cannon as opposed to Russian brass guns.
Another factor was that Turkish soldiers in normal life were generally engaged in terraced agriculture, so were adept at digging trenches and took great pride in doing it right, whereas the Russians tended to be pretty sloppy with theirs. Given the nature of the war, the Ottomans were on the defensive, and that plus the factors I've mentioned led to horrendous casualties on the part of the Russians (more than 4-1 against them), and caused their offensive to screech to a halt at Plevna. After four successive and bloody failures to take the city, Russian morale was at a low, Russian securities had crashed on global markets, making financing for the war unavailable.
In the Ottoman negative column, the army was deployed to deal with insurrection in Bosnia and against Serbia and Montenegro, the former of which had been badly beaten in a rashly declared war. More importantly, at the center there had just been a coup which left the government a bit adrift, as Sultan Abdul Aziz had been replaced by his nephew Murad V, who turned out to be too unstable to rule, leading to his replacement with Abdul Hamid II, still too weak on the throne to exert decisive influence.
Worst of all, the experienced War Minister, Huseyin Avni Pasha, had been assassinated, leaving an 80-something Pasha in charge in Bulgaria, who did pretty much nothing to hinder the Russians, holding back in the fortified areas of Western Bulgaria.
The Russians counted on greater unity of command to win, which paid off.
After being checked at Plevna, large numbers of additional troops were mobilized, dangerously stripping the defenses on the Western borders, and even then, it was a pretty close thing - the audacity of offensive in the Winter through the Balkan mountains threw the Ottomans off-balance and allowed them victory.
In my TL, the War Minister is not assassinated, allowing more intelligent direction of the army, resulting in Russian failure to defeat the Ottomans. In particular, this would mean blowing up the rail bridge near Galatz, organizing opposition to Russian landings across the Danube, and using the army used in Bosnia and Serbia to join up with the main army in Bulgaria (historically the general in command wasted it on frontal assaults against the Russians in the Shipka Pass).
Where I need help is in determining what would happen next. My thoughts:
1. The Powers will step in to resolve the conflict. There will be a settlement that will try to impose as much European control over the Ottomans as possible and provide the Russians with a figleaf to get out.
2. This will include absolute independence for Rumania, Serbia, and Montenegro, some sort of financial arrangement to deal with the Ottoman debt, and will probably try to get territory for at least Montenegro - I think the Ottomans can probably sucessfully fend that off. The Powers will also demand supervised reforms in the Balkans - the Ottomans can probably weasel out of most of that as well.
3. I think the Powers will not think any more highly of Ottoman capabilities, but rather lower their estimates of the Russian military. Nevertheless, this will buy the Ottomans very valuable breathing room to continue reform efforts with much less hindrance from without than in OTL.
4. The Russians are in deep doo-doo. Pan-Slavism is dead, Russian prestie in the Balkans is shattered, and the shock of losing a war to the Ottomans ought to shake the foundations of the Russian polity.
***
The question is, how big an effect will this have on Russia? Could it cause revolt or even revolution? Could the Tsar lose his throne and life? What impact would it have on Russian policy? Would they continue expansion into Central Asia to try to regain prestige, or give up expansion for the time being?
I would appreciate your thoughts.