How do you trigger the Franco-Prussian War without the Spanish question?

As many of you know, the Franco-Prussian War was conceived during the last years of the 1860s, because Prussia sought to unify Germany and aspired to occupy the privilege of being the main power in continental Europe, then occupied by France. However, the casus belli only occurred when it was discovered that the Spanish General Juan Prim, who had led the overthrow of Isabella II of Spain, was intended that the Prussian Prince Leopold of Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen occupy the vacant Spanish throne.

I would like to ask all the members of this great forum which would have been the casus belli for a Franco-Prussian war in the 1870s, completely excluding the possibility that this was due to the candidacy of Prince Leopold to the Spanish throne (either because Isabella II of Spain was not overthrown, because after the Prim's uprising this capricious queen had a moment of sanity and immediately abdicated the Spanish Crown in his only son, the future Alfonso XII of Spain, or because antigovernment coalition that overthrew Isabel II had been more fortunate to convince a candidate tanteados before the Prussian prince had been appraoched: perhaps Ferdinand II of Portugal; Antoine d'Orleans, Duke of Montpensier; or Tommaso Alberto di Savoia, the young Duke of Genoa).

Greetings and thanks for your attention.
 

katchen

Banned
Gernany could attempt to annex Switzerland. Which contains several French speaking cantons, including Geneva and Lasaunne. That might do the trick. As well as open up an area of vulnerability along France's border in Franche-Comte that Germany could exploit to win the war quickly.
 
Gernany could attempt to annex Switzerland. Which contains several French speaking cantons, including Geneva and Lasaunne. That might do the trick. As well as open up an area of vulnerability along France's border in Franche-Comte that Germany could exploit to win the war quickly.

You know how ASB that is?:rolleyes:
 
Gernany could attempt to annex Switzerland. Which contains several French speaking cantons, including Geneva and Lasaunne. That might do the trick. As well as open up an area of vulnerability along France's border in Franche-Comte that Germany could exploit to win the war quickly.

Prussia (there was no "Germany" yet) did not have a common border with Switzerland.
 
A couple of ideas:

The OTL Luxembourg crisis of 1867

Something involving the King of Prussia attempting to enforce his rights to the throne of Neuchatel after his deposition in 1848.
 
If you wanted to manufacture one, there's always Moresnet. But it would be obviously manufactured. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutral_Moresnet

I assume the war of 1866 is too early? That could have done it, and on very unfavourable terms for Prussia.

In the early 70s, there is still the issue of Rome as a flashpoint. The French guarantee the papal state, and Italy has increasingly friendly relations with Prussia. I don't think someone as astute as Bismarck would allow himself to be drawn into a war through Italian machinations, but if he saw it as in his interest, something could certainly be made of it. Prussian internal politics was certainly receptive to the occasional ultramontanist scare. Perfidious Frenchmen colluding with obscurantist tyrant to enslave poor Italian peasants in return for support in their sinister schemes to subvert the return of the South German brothers to the breats of their nation... why not?
 
Why not have the Prussians push for France to return Mulhausen and the hinterlands of Geneva to the Swiss while stating that, yes, they are annexing Neuchatel since it belonged to the Prussian King. That or have Napoleon III get in writing the hints he or the Prussians gave that Luxembourg, Belgium, the Bavarian Palantine, and Prussian Rhineland would be given to or allowed to be taken by France. Further reading suggests it was Nappy who gave the written proposal to the Germans, so not having that... Well, it wouldn't give a different reason. I think there was also an agreement between the two countries that the Low Countries and Scandinavia were in Prussia's sphere of influence, with Italy and Iberia going to France. *Perhaps that also is got in writing?
 

Neirdak

Banned
A good casus belli could be the double annexation of the Duchy of Savoy and the County of Nice by France on March 24, 1860 (Treaty of Turin).

What if Prussia chose to take side with the Kingdom of Sardinia after the plebiscite, contesting its validity ?

I am sure that England and Austria weren't happy with this result. Together, they could even ask to let Savoyards choose if they wish to become a part of Switzerland instead of France. Nobody would refuse this possibility and the swiss citizen Napoleon III would get really angry.

Prussian troops could be stationned on the borders of France. We just have to wait until the French troops act stupidely.
 
A good casus belli could be the double annexation of the Duchy of Savoy and the County of Nice by France on March 24, 1860 (Treaty of Turin).

What if Prussia chose to take side with the Kingdom of Sardinia after the plebiscite, contesting its validity ?

I am sure that England and Austria weren't happy with this result. Together, they could even ask to let Savoyards choose if they wish to become a part of Switzerland instead of France. Nobody would refuse this possibility and the swiss citizen Napoleon III would get really angry.

Prussian troops could be stationned on the borders of France. We just have to wait until the French troops act stupidely.
Could the French just say, alright, we'll take back Lombardy then?
 
Keep in mind that Bismarck can't start the war.

His objective is to bring the South German states on board. They are committed, by the treaties of alliance signed after their defeat in 1866, to support Prussia if she is attacked. But of course for that to work, Prussia must not be the aggressor. It's got to be a foreign power, and preferably the average German's least favourite foreigners - the French. So it's not a question of who Bismarck attacks. He won't attack anyone. It's how can he manipulate the French into attacking first.
 
Keep in mind that Bismarck can't start the war.

His objective is to bring the South German states on board. They are committed, by the treaties of alliance signed after their defeat in 1866, to support Prussia if she is attacked. But of course for that to work, Prussia must not be the aggressor. It's got to be a foreign power, and preferably the average German's least favourite foreigners - the French. So it's not a question of who Bismarck attacks. He won't attack anyone. It's how can he manipulate the French into attacking first.

That's exactly what I'm looking for. What could be the crisis to encourage the French to declare war on the Prussians, without having to use as a pretext immediate the question about the vacant Spanish throne?

Perhaps could be a worsening of the situation in Rome; or a simple border dispute that could get out of hand; or a republican/monarchist coup against the Second French Empire just after the natural death of Napoleon III (in OTL he died at 1873).
 
The Luxembourg crisis would work if the spark can be prior to the Spanish succession issue.

I don't think that Luxembourg can be the spark for a war. The crisis was defused pretty quickly by a conference of Powers, and Nappy the younger should have been quite dumb not to get the message.
 
I would like to revive this thread, but I want to take into account looking for a post-1868 trigger for the Franco-Prussian War, but that has nothing to do with the Spanish question (either successful abdication Isabella II of Spain to his son Alfonso XII, just after the Revolution of 1868, or because the revolutionary coalition enthroned one of the candidates that are shuffled before seeking to Prince Leopold of Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen). That is, it must occur after the resolution of the Luxembourg Crisis, which occurred by the London Conference of 1867.

For example, if Isabella II abdicated in his son Alfonso (born 1857), a regency (probably exerted by General Serrano, who was regent of Spain during 1868-1871 for the search for a new Spanish king until the arrival of the king chosen by the Spanish Cortes is proclaimed: Amadeo di Savoie) and it would seek a future bride for the young king. That bride might be a member of the Hohenzollern dynasty which could be the princess Charlotte of Prussia (born 1860), eldest daughter of Frederick III of Prussia, in order to secure a new Spanish-Prussian alliance. Or maybe some kind of French repression of the German-speaking population of Alsace, leading to a diplomatic crisis ends causing France declares war on Prussia.
 
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Over the period 1866-1870 there was a Franco-Prussian war scare every summer (as a matter of fact, 1870 looked the least likely year for a war since the Spanish throne crisis had apparently been defused :p).

In 1866 Napoleon blinked and lost the opportunity to get into the war before the Austrians sued for an armistice (it was a very narrow window, the French army was garrisoned all over the country, the best troops were still in Mexico) so the opportunity was practically non-existent. Also at this point in time Louis Napoleon still believes France will be compensated by Prussia.

1867 is the year of the Luxembourg crisis. Louis N is finessed by Bismarck's diplomacy and to die for Luxembourg :p would be madness.

1868 and 1869 would be two good years for a war. The potential sparks are in one case North German war games and in the other French sabre-rattling. They are anyway of little relevance. Louis N needs a war (a short, victorious war) to prop up the bonapartist regime which is not in the best of health. The 1869 elections return a win for the regime, but not as good a win as it was expected in particular considering the smooth skill with which the imperial prefects had been able to return very impressive majorities for almost 20 years. I'd probably choose 1869, the electoral year.
 
I'm thinking of grievances of Giuseppe Garibaldi, but it's too distant to be the cause of Franco-Prussian War

Not so distant, as a matter of fact.
In an ATL where Italy performs better in the 1866 (have a look at A Different 1866 for example) Bismarck might decides to go for an Italian strategic alliance.
In the best 19th century tradition there is a secret defensive/offensive pact between Italy and Prussia/NGC.

In the aftermath of the 1866 war (say in October 1866, exactly one year before similar events IOTL) the Cairoli brothers attempt an insurrection in Rome, while Garibaldi volunteers cross the Latium borders. ITTL there are no French troops in Rome (there is not the advance notice given by Garibaldi IOTL) and the Italian government is much more proactive than IOTL. Papaline troops include anyway a sizable number of French volunteers. TTL battle of Mentana goes to Garibaldi's volunteers (no French regulars, and the Italian volunteers are better armed) and the pope leaves Rome for Civitavecchia where he boards a French ship. The Italian government sends in regulars "to keep order and avoid unnecessary violence" and Rome is annexed. However when the pope lands in France there is a wave of support for him (the Ultra-montan party has always been pretty strong) and the emperor makes the fateful decision of issuing an ultimatum to the kingdom of Italy, demanding that the pope be restored to his states and so on. The French ultimatum is countered by a similar ultimatum sent by NGC to France, demanding that there is no meddling in what is an Italian internal affair. Notwithstanding some diplomatic attempts to mend the fences over winter the pope is refusing any compromise, and Napoleon cannot back off. The French declaration of war (against Italy and NGC) comes in the spring of 1867.

PS: for the avoidance of doubt, the disaster of 1870 will be even worse for the French in 1867 (a second front, no time to elaborate a doctrine to deal with the new Prussian infantry tactics, only a limited number of the new chassepots is available, and so on).
 
Not so distant, as a matter of fact.
In an ATL where Italy performs better in the 1866 (have a look at A Different 1866 for example) Bismarck might decides to go for an Italian strategic alliance.
In the best 19th century tradition there is a secret defensive/offensive pact between Italy and Prussia/NGC.

In the aftermath of the 1866 war (say in October 1866, exactly one year before similar events IOTL) the Cairoli brothers attempt an insurrection in Rome, while Garibaldi volunteers cross the Latium borders. ITTL there are no French troops in Rome (there is not the advance notice given by Garibaldi IOTL) and the Italian government is much more proactive than IOTL. Papaline troops include anyway a sizable number of French volunteers. TTL battle of Mentana goes to Garibaldi's volunteers (no French regulars, and the Italian volunteers are better armed) and the pope leaves Rome for Civitavecchia where he boards a French ship. The Italian government sends in regulars "to keep order and avoid unnecessary violence" and Rome is annexed. However when the pope lands in France there is a wave of support for him (the Ultra-montan party has always been pretty strong) and the emperor makes the fateful decision of issuing an ultimatum to the kingdom of Italy, demanding that the pope be restored to his states and so on. The French ultimatum is countered by a similar ultimatum sent by NGC to France, demanding that there is no meddling in what is an Italian internal affair. Notwithstanding some diplomatic attempts to mend the fences over winter the pope is refusing any compromise, and Napoleon cannot back off. The French declaration of war (against Italy and NGC) comes in the spring of 1867.

PS: for the avoidance of doubt, the disaster of 1870 will be even worse for the French in 1867 (a second front, no time to elaborate a doctrine to deal with the new Prussian infantry tactics, only a limited number of the new chassepots is available, and so on).

This hypothesis could be good. However, I sought a Franco-Prussian conflict that is later than these dates, since the PoD I'm making is that no such conflict can not be produced by the issue of succession to the Spanish throne (therefore must be a PoD post-1868/1870). And it must be a conflict where Bismarck achieved manipulate the French so that they become the aggressor, so to validate the Prussian defensive alliance with south German states.
 
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