TL-191.5 The Sun Rises

Hi!

I'm fairly new here, so this might have been done before. If so, sorry about that. I'm a big fan of TL-191, but the way that Japan was basically identical to OTL except that it was also a gigantic Karma Houdini annoyed me. Especially as its war with America made no sense - why go to war with a bigger power over such a meagre reward as the Sandwich Islands? So I came up with a different path for Japan to take.

This isn't a fully developed timeline (or anywhere near it), just an overview of events. Also, I'm assuming that the Meiji Restoration happened as OTL since Turtledove did, and I've got OTL figures mentioned since, well, in TL-191 a lot of people seemed to be immune to butterflies.

[FONT=&quot]1853-1854[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Commodore Matthew Galbraith Perry leads a United States naval and diplomatic mission to Japan.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1868-1869[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Boshin War: partisans of the Tokugawa Shogunate confront pro-imperial forces.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The war ends with an imperial victory and the Meiji Restoration.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1894-1895[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] Sino-Japanese War: Japan takes Liaodong Peninsula, Formosa and Hainan. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1901[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Spanish-Japanese War[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Defeat of Spanish fleet at Battle of Luzon Strait by Combined Fleet under Admiral Togo Heihachiro.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Japanese land forces drive Spanish forces from the islands in a three-month campaign. The land portion of the war inspires the composition of the popular war song ‘Senyuu’, ‘Comrade-in-arms’.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Empire of Japan formally annexes Guam and the Philippines, with a Japanese Governor-General being installed in Manila.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1902[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Beginning of Japanese settlement of Luzon, Mindoro and the Visayas. In exchange for recognition of Japanese sovereignty over the islands, the Moro people are given a wide range of autonomy in Mindanao, and the island is kept clear of Japanese colonists.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]A series of negotiations takes place between the Empire of Japan and the Russian Empire. Ultimately, Japan recognises Russian interests in Manchuria, in exchange for a formal recognition from Russia that Korea lies within Japan’s sphere of influence.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1903-1907[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]This period sees considerable Japanese investment in the Philippines, Formosa and Hainan. Projects to improve sanitation in the cities begin (British experts are contracted to build storm drains and sewers), public clinics are opened, training programmes begin to educate native doctors and nurses (provided they learn Japanese), economic and industrial expansion begins. This is particularly evident in the Philippines, with the opening of new mines and the construction of blast furnaces to better take advantage of the islands’ metal wealth.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1907[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Protectorate established over the Empire of Korea. Prince Ito Hirobumi becomes Resident-General.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1909[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Attempted assassination of Prince Ito Hirobumi by Korean nationalist An Jung-geun fails – his realisation of the strength of Korean nationalism leads him to argue for maintaining the protectorate rather than annexing Korea. The death penalty is withheld after the Prince enters a plea for clemency in his trial – An’s sentence is commuted to ten years’ hard labour.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The Empire of Korea is ultimately not annexed. Though Japan continues to exert a great deal of political and economic influence over the peninsula, it remains de jure an independent nation.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1914-1918[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The Great War.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Japan participates on the side of the Entente, though does not formally join the alliance.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]At war’s end, Japan is able to withdraw without making concessions – Germany is too exhausted militarily and financially to attempt to recover Tsingtao and the Micronesian islands, and in any case the gains made in Africa and Eastern Europe more than make up for any losses in the Far East.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]1916[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Battle of Three Navies: IJN Combined Fleet under Admiral Togo joins with a Royal Navy task force in an attempted attack on the Sandwich Islands. Battle is a draw, though a victory for the United States as Anglo-Japanese forces are unable to continue their advance.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Among the Japanese forces is Kaigun Daii (Lieutenant) Takano Isoroku, serving aboard the cruiser Yakumo. As well as losing his left eye in this battle, he pays particular attention to the use of scouting aircraft by the Americans…[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1919[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The deteriorating internal situations in France – marred by near-civil war between Socialist groups and right-wing militias – and Russia lead Japan to occupy Sakhalin Island and French Indochina, in the ‘interest of regional peace and security’. Though both nations protest vehemently, they are unable to intervene – restrictions on the French military and an ongoing Red rebellion in Russia prevent both nations taking any military action.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]With regard to France, Japan softens the blow with a ‘compensatory payment’ and by agreeing to purchase the dreadnaught battleships Courbet, France and Jean-Bart (which France was going to be compelled to scrap anyway, under the terms of the peace with Germany). These ships will later be refitted as Mikasa, Fuji and Asahi. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Lieutenant-Commander Takano Isoroku is sent – by the Imperial Japanese Navy – to study at University of Richmond. While in the Confederacy, he travels widely, including to the Empire of Mexico and to the United States.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1920[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Establishment of Empire of Vietnam under the Nguyen Dynasty and the Kingdom of Laos. Both nations sign a series of treaties with Japan, effectively becoming semi-protectorates (somewhat more autonomous than Korea) and agreeing to provide resources at cheap prices.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Uprising in Korea by Christian republicans against the Japanese-backed Kingdom – order is restored after three months of fighting. The Army presses strongly for annexation, but ultimately the protectorate is maintained.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Fearing a Japanese assault on the East Indies, the Netherlands applies for membership in Germany’s Mitteleuropa alliance. They are accepted. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The Republic of China officially re-affirms sovereignty over Manchuria, though the territory will in actuality be run by regional warlords.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]23rd September 1920[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Treaty of Anghkor Wat – Japanese transfer control of Cambodia to the Kingdom of Thailand in exchange for a military alliance and for more reasonable prices for Thai metal and rubber.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1921-1926[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Rule of Taisho Emperor. The Emperor’s weakness as a ruler, and his ill-health (nearly killed by a heart attack in 1926, finally succumbed to another in 1929) allow for a steady growth in democratic government, and in the consolidation of control of the military in the hands of the civilian executive.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The Army is not in a position to interfere overmuch, largely because there’s too much for them to do overseas in Japan’s new possessions and allied nations [Author’s Note – little opportunity for coups or extra-curricular adventures]. The Navy, meanwhile, supports the civilian government. Even the right-wing societies have little to complain about – thanks to metals from the Philippines, a small amount of oil from Karafuto[Sakhalin], and cheap rubber (and another small amount of oil) from Vietnam, Japan’s position regarding raw materials is better than at any point in recent history. In addition, unemployment is kept at an all-time low thanks to heavy emigration to the Philippines, to Karafuto, to Formosa and to Hainan.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Beginning of Imperial Japanese Navy carrier program, largely in reaction to the USS Remembrance.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1927[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Large-scale uprising on Mindoro put down by Imperial Japanese Army and Moro paramilitary forces. Conflict sees the clearing of multiple villages, and the relocation of over a third of Mindoro’s native population to labour camps – the lands are redistributed to Japanese settlers, in particular former military personnel. Moro leaders are rewarded well for their loyalty [Japan is attempting to rule by permanently driving a wedge between the Christian and Muslim populations].[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1930[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Accession of Hirohito. Beginning of Showa period.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1931[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Radical groups in the Army and Navy attempt to encourage support for ‘asymmetric warfare’ against the United States involving covert supply of arms to Canadian rebels. Ultimately, civilian government and main officer corps of the military veto the proposal – with the annexation of Germany’s Pacific Island territories, Japan has strategic depth in the Pacific, while the Philippines and former French Indochina solve many of Japan’s resource issues (though oil remains an issue), and most feel that taking the Sandwich Islands (the only possible territorial target for a war against the United States) is not worth a major conflict. Indeed, with the establishment of allied regimes in Vietnam and Laos, and the alliance with Thailand, most feel that Japan’s main strategic interests lie to the South…[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Chinese warlords Feng Yuxiang and Yan Xishan attempt to overthrow the Kuomintang government. Zhang Xueliang [the new warlord of Manchuria] steps in to support the Nanjing government against the northern warlords in exchange for official recognition of Manchu regional autonomy.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Japan begins heavy investment in Manchuria. [/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1932-1939[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Turbulent time in Japanese internal politics, caused by the global recession and by a major division between the Army and Navy, caused by differences over the future of Japan’s foreign policy.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Generally speaking, the Army favours retaining the alliance with Britain – this, they theorise, will allow Japan to claim the Sandwich Islands and the Dutch East Indies in the event of a future war (the Netherlands having joined the German Mitteleuropa alliance). The Army also sees China as the main focus of future expansion. The Navy, by contrast, favours abandoning the alliance in favour of making common cause with the United States and Germany. This, according to the Navy, will secure Japan’s Eastern perimeter while potentially allowing Japan to occupy the British Empire in Asia (some dreamers even suggest an invasion of Australia could be possible). More importantly, it will end the possibility of a war with the United States, something that the Navy dreads. Some Army officers support the idea of an alliance with Germany and the US – these men advocate a ‘Go North’ policy, striking into Siberia through the lands of the Manchu warlords, and they see Germany as a useful partner in taming the Russian bear.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Japan has become a major investor in Manchuria. Manchu forces are now mostly equipped with Japanese weaponry, something that has led to considerably hostility from the Kuomintang government.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Japanese Army commanders have – without the consent of Tokyo – begun stationing units in Manchuria.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]30th August, 1937[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]First victory of the Navy faction – signing of the Mutual Pacific Development Pact between the Empire of Japan and the United States of America: the Pact effectively divides the Pacific between the two powers, and sees Japan formally recognise United States rule over the Sandwich Islands, in exchange for guarantees relating to Japanese nationals resident on the islands (that their Japanese citizenship will be recognised, that they will not be exploited, etc.)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]This marks the beginning of a thaw in relations between America and Japan, though many in America – including Congresswoman Flora Blackford – continue to denounce Japanese oppression of the Filipino people.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1937-1939[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Increasing dialogue between Japan and Germany. German leaders fear that Britain will side with France in the event of war, and hope to neutralise the British threat with Japanese help [they gamble that, if British access to the raw materials of the Empire is impeded, then they’ll find it harder to fight in Europe – will have to choose between committing fully in Europe, or in Asia]. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Infighting between the Army and the Navy reaches an all-time high, with street-fights, demagoguery and assassination attempts becoming commonplace.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Admiral Takano Isoroku, Undersecretary of the Navy, is injured by an assassin’s bullet: the would-be assassin is discovered to be an Army private.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1940[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Admiral Takano is made Commander-in-Chief of Japanese Combined Fleet. Works to improve Japanese carrier tactics.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Empire of Japan and German Empire sign the secret (for now) Treaty of Berlin.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1941[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]British deployment of Force G to Singapore. Force G consists of the following:[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]HMS King George V (BB)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]HMS Prince of Wales (BB)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]HMS Ajax (CA)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]HMS Achilles (CA)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]HMS Exeter (CA)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]HMS Indomitable (CV)[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]As well as escorting destroyers[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Force G is intended as a deterrent against Japanese hostilities – the Admiralty knows that, once war kicks off with Germany, they won’t have anything to spare for the Far East (given the size of the German Hochsees Flotte) so the maintenance of a large fleet-in-being is considered to be of the utmost importance.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]19 June 1941[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Britain and France declare war against Germany[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]20 June 1941[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]05:00 hours – Singapore Raid.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Admiral Takano leads the First Air Fleet in a major air raid on Singapore, attempting to destroy Force G in harbour. Carrier air from Kaga, Soryu, Hiryu, Shokaku, Zuikaku and Mikasa links up with land-based bombers flying from Thu Dau Mot in Southern Vietnam.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Prince of Wales, Ajax [/FONT][FONT=&quot]and Exeter are sunk, while King George V and Achilles are heavily damaged and out of action for another six months. Indomitable’s flight deck is damaged, though repairs will take less time than would be true for a Japanese carrier (armoured flight deck). Japan loses 50 aircraft, most of which are land-based aircraft.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]At same time, an amphibious invasion of Hong Kong is launched, with support from Japan’s main battleship force.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1941-1944[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Second Great War[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]By war’s end, Japan has occupied Hong Kong, Northern Borneo/Sarawak, Malaya, Singapore, Burma and Ceylon. However, their attempt to drive into India through Burma was routed at heavy cost, while they were unable to attempt an invasion of Australia due to manpower shortages – indeed, as military historians would later observe, they only managed to advance in South-East Asia thanks to regional naval superiority and major support from their South-East Asian allies – the Vietnamese and Royal Thai armies would particularly distinguish themselves, as would the Burmese National Army established by General Aung San.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The Northern Front would prove to be the greatest drain of Japanese manpower. Originally, Japanese forces in Manchuria (and Zhang Xueliang’s Japanese-equipped army) were ordered to stand on the defensive, to wait until operations in the South had concluded before undertaking any offensive action. As long as Japanese forces remained on their side of the border, it was theorised, the Russians would not attack, focusing instead on the Western Front. However, Japanese regional commanders grew increasingly impatient with these orders, until two regimental commanders ordered their men across the border towards the Trans-Siberian railway – forcing the hand of their own superiors. What followed was the largest rout in Japanese military history, seeing Japanese and Manchu forces melting apart in front of a Russian counter-offensive led by Marshal Valeriy Zhukov. The war against Russia would, ultimately, see over six hundred thousand Japanese and one hundrd thousand Korean military deaths, together with two million Korean civilian casualties and over half a million Russian military deaths. A large percentage of these would meet their end in the five-month Battle of Seoul, easily the bloodiest single battle of the war. Interestingly, it was this that would see the (partial) dissolution of (some) animosity between Japanese and Korean – soldiers of both nations fought side-by-side against the Russians, whose forces in Korea became a by-word for atrocity and ill-discipline, with all the attendant horrors. It would also see the ending of Japan’s protectorate, and Korea becoming a fully sovereign ally. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]As the war with Germany forced the Russians to divert more resources to the West, Japan was able to expel the Russians from Korea, and launch an invasion of Primorsky Krai. This invasion cost Japan dearly in men, but a lack of supplies and falling morale among the Russians allowed the capture of Vladivostok in 1943. At the same time, the Republic of China declared war on Russia, deploying troops into occupied Manchuria and into Mongolia. Ultimately, both were able to advance rapidly in the aftermath of the superbombing of Petrograd, occupying territory.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]The war also saw a renewed uprising in the Philippines, one that was only put down after a four-month military campaign.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1945[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Japan establishes allied regimes in Burma and Sri Lanka. The Northern Half of the Malay Peninsula is given to Thailand, while the South and Northern Borneo are occupied as the ‘Malay Protectorate’. Singapore and Hong Kong are annexed as overseas prefectures of Japan – Singapore in particular becomes a major forward base for the Imperial Japanese Navy.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]To the North, Japan annexes Primorsky Krai, Khabarovsk Krai and Kamchatka, with German approval (they want to make sure Russia is weakened for the foreseeable future). [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Japan will ship in large numbers of settlers to the former Russian territory over the next three decades [as well as quietly expelling Russians] and gives official encouragement for large families – seeking to dominate Siberia through numbers within the next twenty to thirty years. Most will find work with a growing mining and metalworking industry, as iron ore, pyrolusite (manganese ore), molybdena (molybdenum ore), coal, and bauxite (aluminum ore) deposits will be exploited to the maximum. Khabarovsk sees a major wave of construction, particularly of blast furnaces, smelters and coke ovens – facilities which will be worked by Japanese settlers. In return for ‘considerations’ [ie, a share of the loot for reasonable prices], Germany will provide capital and expert advisors to support Japan’s industrial endeavours in Siberia. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]China declares the restoration of sovereignty over Manchuria, annexes Tuva and Mongolia, and creates the ‘United Turkic Republic’ in former Russian Central Asia (puppet regime and major source of oil and gas).[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Japan joins the Global Summit, becomes a member of the Security Council [other members are the United States, the German Empire, Austria-Hungary and Ottoman Turkey].[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Official creation of Greater East Asia Treaty Organisation: military alliance made up of Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, Burma, Sri Lanka.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1945-1959[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]‘Hungry Years’. During this time, Japan has to deal with the economic and social implications of the war [ie death toll, sheer cost of the war, the fact that thanks to the dearth of men, women had to be employed in ever-larger numbers…][/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Downsizing of Imperial Japanese Army – most conscripts are demobilised [many of the professional forces are transferred to Siberia and the Philippines]. Conscription suspended, will be abolished in five years in favour of a small, professional army. Navy reorganisation undertaken: agreed that the IJN will always maintain a core of six fleet carriers. Outdated units and the majority of Japan’s battleship fleet are sold either for scrap or to Japan’s allies in return for bulk shipments of resources.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1959 [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Beginning of major industrial boom in Japan, as resource flow from Siberia is regularised. Over the next few years, Japan will become a major exporter of metals.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Japanese automobile manufacturers start producing licensed copies of GM and Ford vehicles. Japanese cities become manufacturing hubs for heavy machinery [Author’s note – Japanese economy is quite different to OTL – geared towards heavy industry rather than electronics, more like OTL Germany post WWII. Also, rural and town life will continue in a traditional pattern, while socially Japan remains very Japanese – no Americanisation].[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]1960[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Japan test-detonates first superbomb.

Thoughts? Reasonable or total ASB?
[/FONT]

Awesome!

A much better take than HT's gigantic butterfly net.

My only issue is that Japan should still feel like the next big threat to the US to keep it cannon-ish. Something should go wrong during the peace treaty that refreezes the relationship with Japan or that makes Japan feel cheated out.

jycee said:

Awesome!

A much better take than HT's gigantic butterfly net.

My only issue is that Japan should still feel like the next big threat to the US to keep it cannon-ish. Something should go wrong during the peace treaty that refreezes the relationship with Japan or that makes Japan feel cheated out.

Click to expand...

Thanks! Glad you enjoyed it. I'm hoping to do something more detailed at some point in the future.

As to Japan being the next big threat... See, the thing about TL-191 is, I don't think that a Cold War scenario that's identical to OTL is that likely. The US, Germany and Japan are all capitalist countries - American Socialism in TL-191 doesn't go against the free market, it's more like OTL Europe than the USSR - so there's no great ideological divide. OK, the US is a democracy and the other two are semi-dictatorial or authoritarian monarchies, but they don't pose an existential threat to the American way of life the way the USSR did OTL, and they don't share land borders. So I don't see a major Cold War, but I do see a lot of smaller regional tensions between the three powers, and especially between America and Japan. Especially on the economic front - I see the three nations trying to carve out economic spheres of influence in Latin America, Africa (now that the British and French colonial empires are collapsing) and in unaligned Asia, and trying to squeeze one another out, maybe by propping up allied regimes etc.

That said, while I had the US-Japan relationship thawing somewhat in the face of the renewed Entente, they still don't like one another overmuch. Japanese colonial rule in the Philippines has not gone down well in the States, especially among the Socialist Party, and I'd say that with the rise of the Republic of China America may begin turning increasingly towards them as a trading partner...and maybe eventually, an ally.

I like it. It's an interesting alt-TL-191 idea and certainly makes the post-war world interesting.

EnglishCanuck said:

I like it. It's an interesting alt-TL-191 idea and certainly makes the post-war world interesting.

Click to expand...

Cheers for that!

Like I say, I enjoy Turtledove in general (with the exception of In the Presence of Mine Enemies - a Nazi conquest of North America is just insanity, unless they were helped by those aliens from that Star Trek Enterprise two-parter)and TL-191 in particular, but this was always something that niggled at me.

Agreed that this version makes a lot more sense than the canon storyline. The only quibble I have with it is the Japanese and Korean casualties for the Second Great War seem a little high. (Its hard to believe TL-191 Russia could inflict more damage on Japan than it suffered in OTL WW2 especially since the Russians are simultaneously fighting the Germans, Austo-Hungarians, and Turks.)

Look forward to more

bguy said:

Agreed that this version makes a lot more sense than the canon storyline. The only quibble I have with it is the Japanese and Korean casualties for the Second Great War seem a little high. (Its hard to believe TL-191 Russia could inflict more damage on Japan than it suffered in OTL WW2 especially since the Russians are simultaneously fighting the Germans, Austo-Hungarians, and Turks.)

Click to expand...

Yeah... I'd used the WW2 figures as a baseline, because I figured that any war in Siberia/Manchuria would turn into an utter meatgrinder between actual combat, the fact that traditionally IJA officers seem to have been their own army's worst enemies, and the weather. But I did overestimate, badly...

If you don't mind me asking, what kind of figures would you estimate as right for a) Japanese military deaths and b) Korean military and civilian deaths (given that the Koreans, as the nearest available target besides Manchuria, are going to be right in the sights of vengeful Russian troops looking for payback for the invasion of the Rodina...) ? I'd still have high casualty rates for the Battle of Seoul, though - it's the turning point of that theatre of the war.

It's nice to see a TL-191 TL that does not screw over the Empire of Japan

Vexacus said:

It's nice to see a TL-191 TL that does not screw over the Empire of Japan

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Well, I always figured that the political situation in TL-191, with the weakened US and the particular global political map, is one of the few places where you can legitimately feature an Empire of Japan that makes it past the 1940s as anything other than a regional power. Especially since it has a POD before the 1900s - IMO, if you want a realistic scenario where Japan avoids falling into the downward spiral of extreme militarism that led to atrocities like Nanking or Unit 731, then the POD needs to be before the annexation of Korea. Maybe it's naive of me, but I feel that it was the decision to dominate Korea rather than work with it that marked the beginning of the downward spiral.

Mind you, Japan is by no means perfect in my idea - the violent suppression of revolt in the Philippines proves that, and the strife between Army and Navy. At the same time, though, I think that the early acquisition of a resource-rich area like the Philippines would have blunted the perceived need for the occupation of new territory, which in turn wouldn't have given extreme militarism the same chance to flourish as it did OTL.

theg*ddam*hoi2fan said:

Well, I always figured that the political situation in TL-191, with the weakened US and the particular global political map, is one of the few places where you can legitimately feature an Empire of Japan that makes it past the 1940s as anything other than a regional power. Especially since it has a POD before the 1900s - IMO, if you want a realistic scenario where Japan avoids falling into the downward spiral of extreme militarism that led to atrocities like Nanking or Unit 731, then the POD needs to be before the annexation of Korea. Maybe it's naive of me, but I feel that it was the decision to dominate Korea rather than work with it that marked the beginning of the downward spiral.

Mind you, Japan is by no means perfect in my idea - the violent suppression of revolt in the Philippines proves that, and the strife between Army and Navy. At the same time, though, I think that the early acquisition of a resource-rich area like the Philippines would have blunted the perceived need for the occupation of new territory, which in turn wouldn't have given extreme militarism the same chance to flourish as it did OTL.

Click to expand...

I look forward to more updates

Japan in TL-191 has always been interesting to me. Looking at it broadly:

-It is the only world power of the Second Great War (except, perhaps, Austria-Hungary) that did not suffer a nuclear attack. Besides the irony of that, this is a Japan that does not have the trauma of Hiroshima and Nagasaki coloring its culture.

-It is the only power that did not see war on its own shores. In a sense, it's like the America of OTL: all the other powers got wrecked, but their own infrastructure remains intact, allowing them to gain economic dominance. Can you imagine Japan's economic position in TL-191? Europe and North America are both in ruins, but Japan itself is, for the most part, unscathed. Is it possible that the still-intact zaibatsu conglomerates will invest heavily in Europe and North America, and achieve a strong business hegemony?

-I wonder about the overall national identity for Japanese in TL-191. This is a Japan that went through the Meiji Restoration and, put simply, became undefeated on the world stage and one of the world's major military powers. It did not have the shocking, humbling cultural experience of being defeated so drastically in WWII.

To this day, there's still a strong undercurrent of national exceptionalism and uniqueness in Japanese culture which can often be interpreted as cultural chauvinism, largely due to the homogeneity of its society and the provincialism of the general population. I can't help but think that this current is magnified greatly in a powerful Japan that has not tasted defeat. Will this translate into a strong cultural arrogance that would manifest in its foreign policy and trade decisions?

theg*ddam*hoi2fan said:

If you don't mind me asking, what kind of figures would you estimate as right for a) Japanese military deaths and b) Korean military and civilian deaths (given that the Koreans, as the nearest available target besides Manchuria, are going to be right in the sights of vengeful Russian troops looking for payback for the invasion of the Rodina...) ? I'd still have high casualty rates for the Battle of Seoul, though - it's the turning point of that theatre of the war.

Click to expand...

Alrighty, here is my (hamfisted) estimate and the logic behind it.

We'll start as a baseline assumption that the Russian Army in Siberia at the start of GW2 is comparable to what Soviet forces in the far east were OTL in 1941. (Realistically the TL-191 Russian Army should be smaller than the Soviet Army since TL-191 Russia doesn't have the Ukraine to draw troops from, but we'll handwave that on the assumption that because the Russians have firm allies in the west, they feel comfortable stationing a larger percentage of their army in the east.

So that gives the Russians 682,000 men.

We'll also assume the Japanese Army deployed on the Russian border is comparable in size to the Kwantung Army. (I can't see anything in your timeline that would indicate a smaller army.) Likewise since the Japanese seems to have decent relations with the Koreans here, we'll assume they can get a Korean army at least as large as the Manchukuo Imperial Army. (I think the Japanese would be leery of letting the Koreans have an army larger than what they historically tolerated from Manchukuo.)

So that gives the Japanese 684,000 and the Koreans 111,000 men.

Now your description of the fighting sounds comparable to OTL's Soviet-Japanese border wars, so we'll apply the casualty ratios from that fighting.

Per Wikipedia, the Soviets had 80,000 troops involved in that fighting and had 20,000 killed, so that's a .25 death ratio. And the Japanese had 97,000 men and lost somewhere between 30,000 (the Japanese estimate), and somewhere around 150,000 casualties (which would probably mean about 50,000 dead), from the Soviet estimate. As the TL-191 Russian Army is almost certainly less well equipped than the OTL Soviet forces were, I'm going to go with the low end estimate of 30,000 dead, which means the Japanese will have a .3 death ratio.

Now though we have to also assume that each side will send reinforcements and replacements as the fighting progresses, so we'll assume that each side will send enough extra men to fully replace their starting armies at least twice over the course of the war.

So with those assumptions in place we get the following results:

Russians: 682,000 men * 2 (replacements) * .25 (death ratio)= 341,000 Russian troops killed in action.

Japanese: 684,000 men * 2 (replacements) * .3 (death ratio)= 410,400 Japanese troops killed in action.

Koreans: 111,000 men * 2 (replacements) * .3 (death ratio) = 66,600 Korean troops killed in action.

But then we also have the Battle of Seoul, which probably should be calculated separately. It seems to be analogous to the Battle of Stalingrad, though since this is a secondary theory for the Russians, probably only about half the size. Historically the defending Soviets lost about 500,000 men killed there, so we'll assume the defending Japanese-Koreans lose about 250,000. (We'll assume the Koreans are highly motivated since they are fighting to defend their capital, so they take a disproportionate share of the casualties, so we'll attribute 200,000 of the dead to the Japanese total and the remaining 50,000 to the Korean total.) I haven't been able to find a good estimate for German dead at Stalingrad, but their total number of casualties were less than the Soviets, so we'll apply the same here and just give the Russians 200,000 dead.

So that leaves us for final military casualties:
Russians: 541,000
Japanese: 610,400
Koreans: 116,600

Now for civilian casualties in Korea: GW2 went on for three years which is as long as OTL's Korean War. You have Russian troops being especially savage, but then I doubt the TL-191 Russian Air Force was as incredibly devastating as UN air forces were OTL, so lets call that a wash and assume similar civilian casualty levels between the two wars. That would mean around 2 million Korean civilians killed.

Does that all seem plausible?

bguy said:

Alrighty, here is my (hamfisted) estimate and the logic behind it.

We'll start as a baseline assumption that the Russian Army in Siberia at the start of GW2 is comparable to what Soviet forces in the far east were OTL in 1941. (Realistically the TL-191 Russian Army should be smaller than the Soviet Army since TL-191 Russia doesn't have the Ukraine to draw troops from, but we'll handwave that on the assumption that because the Russians have firm allies in the west, they feel comfortable stationing a larger percentage of their army in the east.

So that gives the Russians 682,000 men.

We'll also assume the Japanese Army deployed on the Russian border is comparable in size to the Kwantung Army. (I can't see anything in your timeline that would indicate a smaller army.) Likewise since the Japanese seems to have decent relations with the Koreans here, we'll assume they can get a Korean army at least as large as the Manchukuo Imperial Army. (I think the Japanese would be leery of letting the Koreans have an army larger than what they historically tolerated from Manchukuo.)

So that gives the Japanese 684,000 and the Koreans 111,000 men.

Now your description of the fighting sounds comparable to OTL's Soviet-Japanese border wars, so we'll apply the casualty ratios from that fighting.

Per Wikipedia, the Soviets had 80,000 troops involved in that fighting and had 20,000 killed, so that's a .25 death ratio. And the Japanese had 97,000 men and lost somewhere between 30,000 (the Japanese estimate), and somewhere around 150,000 casualties (which would probably mean about 50,000 dead), from the Soviet estimate. As the TL-191 Russian Army is almost certainly less well equipped than the OTL Soviet forces were, I'm going to go with the low end estimate of 30,000 dead, which means the Japanese will have a .3 death ratio.

Now though we have to also assume that each side will send reinforcements and replacements as the fighting progresses, so we'll assume that each side will send enough extra men to fully replace their starting armies at least twice over the course of the war.

So with those assumptions in place we get the following results:

Russians: 682,000 men * 2 (replacements) * .25 (death ratio)= 341,000 Russian troops killed in action.

Japanese: 684,000 men * 2 (replacements) * .3 (death ratio)= 410,400 Japanese troops killed in action.

Koreans: 111,000 men * 2 (replacements) * .3 (death ratio) = 66,600 Korean troops killed in action.

But then we also have the Battle of Seoul, which probably should be calculated separately. It seems to be analogous to the Battle of Stalingrad, though since this is a secondary theory for the Russians, probably only about half the size. Historically the defending Soviets lost about 500,000 men killed there, so we'll assume the defending Japanese-Koreans lose about 250,000. (We'll assume the Koreans are highly motivated since they are fighting to defend their capital, so they take a disproportionate share of the casualties, so we'll attribute 200,000 of the dead to the Japanese total and the remaining 50,000 to the Korean total.) I haven't been able to find a good estimate for German dead at Stalingrad, but their total number of casualties were less than the Soviets, so we'll apply the same here and just give the Russians 200,000 dead.

So that leaves us for final military casualties:
Russians: 541,000
Japanese: 610,400
Koreans: 116,600

Now for civilian casualties in Korea: GW2 went on for three years which is as long as OTL's Korean War. You have Russian troops being especially savage, but then I doubt the TL-191 Russian Air Force was as incredibly devastating as UN air forces were OTL, so lets call that a wash and assume similar civilian casualty levels between the two wars. That would mean around 2 million Korean civilians killed.

Does that all seem plausible?

Click to expand...

That seems more than plausible Thank you immensely for that.

Your reading of the situation is pretty much perfect, in particular your reading of the Korean military - I'd imagined them as comparable in size to Manchukuo's OTL, though somewhat more independent. And yes, Seoul is Asia of TTL's Stalingrad.

Korean relations with Japan prior to the war would have been problematic, though a considerable improvement on OTL (though Japan works to subtly dominate the peninsula, and props up the royal establishmen against democratic forces, there's no direct repression and no targeting of Korean culture) - an after the war, the experience of fighting a mutual enemy side by side leads to a thawing of relations, and greater individual respect for one another's nations (again not perfect, but much, much better than OTL).

And thank you everyone for the encouragement! Hope to have more up soon.

Some random soundbites from this world:

…in order to understand Japanese politics in the years following the war, one must understand the attitudes towards Japan held by the members of the still-new Greater East Asia Treaty Organisation.
Within Vietnam and Laos, there remained a great deal of popular gratitude for the Japanese liberation from France. Among the people of Vietnam, however, some of that gratitude had been eroded by Japan’s continuing support of the authoritarian Imperial regimes, now led by Emperor Bao Dai. Though a National Diet based on Japan’s had been assembled in Saigon, Vietnamese democracy was as ineffectual as popular democracy had been in Germany prior to the Great War – the Diet was an advisory, not a legislative body. However, the rise of the Republic of China would, for the moment, serve to weld Vietnam and Laos to Japan, as both nations had a long history of resistance to Chinese domination.
Within the new Republic of Burma, popular pro-Japanese sentiment remained high. It had been Japanese soldiers who swept away British colonial rule, and Japan that had assisted General (now President) Aung San to take power. Though problems would arise later, largely caused by the General’s unwillingness to relinquish the reins of power, Burma at that time would follow Japan’s lead unquestioningly. And even today, many Burmese acknowledge a ‘national debt’ to Japan.
Japan would find it particularly difficult to compel two particular members of the GEATO to follow its lead without discussion. The Empire of Korea and the Kingdom of Greater Thailand both proved obstreperous in their dealings with Japan, but for different reasons. In the case of Korea, though popular anti-Japanese sentiment had faded thanks to mutual involvement in defending the peninsula from Russia – as my father, a retired Army veteran, would say, the two peoples had ‘fought in the same mud and shed the same blood’ to defend Korea (something re-iterated ad nauseam by Japanese propaganda following the war) – there remained a solid determination not to allow Korea to be treated like a junior partner in the new East Asian order. This was particularly influenced by the post-war growth of democracy, and the ultimate transitioning of the Korean monarchy into a constitutional one, as the new democratic forces were keen to set themselves apart from the acquiescent regime that had existed during the time of the protectorate.
The Kingdom of Thailand, by contrast, had never been a protectorate of Japan. Though the two nations had become allies following the Treaty of Angkor Wat, Thailand had always been treated – on the surface, at least – as an equal partner. As such, when the newly-liberated nations of East Asia were being welded into GEATO, there was a strong feeling on the part of King Rama and his court that Thailand must ensure that it never entered a subordinate relationship to Japan. This took the form of rigorous expansion of the Royal Thai military, increased spending on domestic industrial programmes, and insistence on the part of Thailand’s ambassador to GEATO to rigid adherence to voting protocol (something that led to Japanese cartoonists developing the stock character of the officious Thai bureaucrat). Of course, as shall be discussed, the rise of the Cambodian Khmer Rouge Nationalist Socialist movement and the conflict that spread as a result would lead to Thailand relying heavily on Japanese support.
- From Professor Andrew Grimes, The Sun and the Tigers: Japan and Greater East Asia (University of Pennsylvania Press, 1988)


Screenplay of the film ‘Comrades-in-arms’ (1956)
INT. DEVESTATED FACTORY, LOWER LEVEL
The setting is the Battle of Seoul, inside the gutted ruin of what used to be a factory. Two men, Lieutenants WATANABE HIDEKI and PARK WONGYUNG are huddled on the lower level, just inside the main entrance. Behind them, a mixed group of IMPERIAL JAPANESE ARMY and IMPERIAL KOREAN ARMY soldiers looks uncertainly on.

HIDEKI
You’ll be alright, Wongyung-san. We’ll get you out of here once the shelling slacks off.

WONGYUNG (SMILING WEAKLY)
Liar…I’m dead already.

HIDEKI
No! You’re going to be fine, we’ll get through…

WONGYUNG
I’m…not afraid. (SMILES, THEN COUGHS) Nippon…doesn’t have…monopoly on…courage and self-sacrifice…

HIDEKI (SMILES IN TURN)
I might have thought that once. But not after fighting alongside you and your people.

JAPANESE SERGEANT
Sirs, the shelling, it’s…
WONGYUNG (COUGHS AGAIN)
Listen…I’m dying…but…can do one…last thing. Men!

KOREAN SOLDIERS (IN UNISON)
Sir!

WONGYUNG
It’s…been an honour…leading you. But now…until you re-join…our main forces…Lieutenant Watanabe is your commander. Obey him…as you would…me. (TO HIDEKI) This…has to mean…something. For East Asia to prosper…(COUGHS) Korea and Japan must be as brothers. Lead…them, and show…how Korean and Japanese can…fight together.

HIDEKI (GRIPS WONGYUNG’S SHOULDER)
I will. (IN THE BACKGROUND, ‘SENYUU’ BEGINS PLAYING, IN ORCHESTRAL RENDITION) Are there…any messages you wish me to carry for you?

WONGYUNG
To my parents…tell them I died…fighting for our country. (FUMBLES WEAKLY IN HIS UNIFORM, WITHDRAWS A LETTER) And…give this…to my wife and boy.

HIDEKI (TAKES LETTER AS ‘SENYUU’ PLAYS EVER-LOUDER)
I promise…brother.

WONGYUNG SMILES, THEN DIES. ‘SENYUU’ IS AT ITS ABSOLUTE LOUDEST AS HIDEKI CLOSES WONGYUNG’S EYES
HIDEKI (RISES, TURNS TO FACE THE ASSEMBLED SOLDIERS)
Soldiers of Japan and Korea! A brave man has died. For his sake, for our countries’ sakes, we will fight on! Fight on for victory, and for peace in East Asia! (DRAWS KATANA) We will break through the enemy, and re-join our comrades. Tennoheika Banzai!


(MIXED YELLS FROM JAPANESE AND KOREAN SOLDIERS AS, HIDEKI AT THEIR HEAD, THEY CHARGE OUT OF THE FATORY AND FORWARDS INTO RUINED SEOUL.)

[AN - was going for a deliberately over-the-top feeling for that screenplay, since it was written so soon after the war as an obvious piece of semi-propaganda. Hope it works...]

VidaLaVida said:

Japan in TL-191 has always been interesting to me. Looking at it broadly:

-It is the only world power of the Second Great War (except, perhaps, Austria-Hungary) that did not suffer a nuclear attack. Besides the irony of that, this is a Japan that does not have the trauma of Hiroshima and Nagasaki coloring its culture.

-It is the only power that did not see war on its own shores. In a sense, it's like the America of OTL: all the other powers got wrecked, but their own infrastructure remains intact, allowing them to gain economic dominance. Can you imagine Japan's economic position in TL-191? Europe and North America are both in ruins, but Japan itself is, for the most part, unscathed. Is it possible that the still-intact zaibatsu conglomerates will invest heavily in Europe and North America, and achieve a strong business hegemony?

-I wonder about the overall national identity for Japanese in TL-191. This is a Japan that went through the Meiji Restoration and, put simply, became undefeated on the world stage and one of the world's major military powers. It did not have the shocking, humbling cultural experience of being defeated so drastically in WWII.

To this day, there's still a strong undercurrent of national exceptionalism and uniqueness in Japanese culture which can often be interpreted as cultural chauvinism, largely due to the homogeneity of its society and the provincialism of the general population. I can't help but think that this current is magnified greatly in a powerful Japan that has not tasted defeat. Will this translate into a strong cultural arrogance that would manifest in its foreign policy and trade decisions?

Click to expand...

Good questions and points. I certainly have it in mind that Japan, as a result of its war record against Britain and Russia, will be far more confident - to the point of arrogance - in foreign policy and trade. That said, given that the GEATO now ensures a steady stream of raw materials into Japan, there won't be the same expansionist drive. I'd kind of see Japan at this point as a sated state. To a certain extent, anyway. I'd also see a split between Army personnel who served against British colonies, and so see Japan as invincible, and those who fought on the Russian front, who realise just how close they came to defeat because of overconfidence... And the former would be the ones who might press for some kind of ultimate confrontation with China.

Part of the reason I went for this set-up was because I saw major long-term issues with the set-up in TL-191. In that, Japan has not only managed to occupy all of South-East Asia without resistance, but is also hinted to have retained its holdings in Manchuria, to be pressing for an occupation of Siberia...and to have a mentality comparable to the worst parts of the Showa Period. A nation like that - one that betrayed its allies in the middle of a war - would quickly become a pariah nation, while Victory Disease and strong national chauvinism would lead to an extremely confrontational attitude among its military leadership. All of which spells Third Great War... This Japan, though (definitely) not a perfect nation, is at least an improvement on OTL.

I felt that for this part, a bit of context for the rest of the world was needed. Again, if you find anything totally ASB, please let me know - still kind of new!
Again, have kept the names of some historical figures - I know butterflies, but given the playground I'm operating in, I hope you'll forgive me

1945-1950
Americas:
The United States of America formally annexes all former territories of the Confederate States of America, from Cuba in the East to Sonora in the West. The only exception is the Republic of Texas, the independence of which is recognised by the United States in exchange for Texan recognition of Union control over the State of Houston, and for basing rights in Texas for the next twenty years. All former Confederate territory is placed under military rule, pending the installation of civilian state governments.
Occupation of former Russian Aleyaska.
Formation of the Federal Police Bureau, the US’s first police body with a nationwide remit. Luther Bliss becomes the first Director of the FPB.
Overtures are made to extremist Mormon leaders: in exchange for encouraging moderates to lay down arms, those who feel that they cannot live in the United States will be transported to the Sandwich Islands (though Oahu will remain under US jurisdiction), with self-government to be granted in exchange for a pledge never to return to the continental United States.
Resistance to US rule in the former Confederacy continues. However, resistance is seen to be beginning to fissure: divide between Freedom Party die-hards and the ‘traditionalist’ Confederate resistance [basically, people who want a free Confederacy but blame Jake Featherston for the Confederacy’s defeat].
23rd January, 1946: Establishment of the Confederated Republic of the Caribbean, a federal union between the Bahamas, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Haiti, and the smaller islands [NOT Cuba]. This will be a new homeland for African-Americans who do not wish to remain in the continental United States.
4th February, 1946: United States Congress votes to end the ‘Occupied’ status of Canada, and to begin turning Canada into states within the Union. The states will largely follow the old provincial lines, with the exception that Vancouver Island will be incorporated into the new State of Alaska.

Europe:
‘Second Glorious Revolution’ breaks out in Britain, as popular dissatisfaction with the Government, the war and the superbombings of three cities leads to rioting and violence, The ‘New Leveller Movement’ under Stafford Cripps and the Scottish National Party emerge as dominant political forces. Ultimately, what amounts to a second civil war erupts, with the Royal Family fleeing for Australia and the proclamation of the Second English Commonwealth by President Cripps. Scotland breaks away from Britain, forming an independent nation. Capital of England is moved to Birmingham. Over the next five years, President Cripps will – under the banner of a quasi-Socialist ethic named ‘Progressivism’ – announce the formation of the Civil Labour Force, which will constitute a new form of national service, and announce the beginning of a Five-Year plan designed to rebuild English and Welsh industry and bring about economic recovery.
France is demilitarised, occupied, and Germany installs a new government provisionally titled the ‘State of France’. War crimes trials begin in Bordeaux, as former members of Action Francais are tried and executed.
Germany moves to re-establish control over Central and Eastern Europe. Russian forces (what’s left of them) have largely withdrawn back across the Vistula, but there is heavy resistance as German troops return to Poland and Ukraine.
Second Socialist Revolution begins in Russia.
Beginning of internal strife in Austria-Hungary.
Development of the Drache rotary-winged air combat vehicle by Germany. Mass production of Drachen will begin in most nations by the turn of the decade.
4th September, 1946: Opening of the new Global Summit building in Geneva.
9th November, 1948: With the ongoing civil conflict in Britain, and with the official surrender of the French colonial empire, the Global Summit agrees that all former British and French colonial territories will be administered by the Global Summit as Mandates, to prepare them for eventual independence. To maintain order, military forces from the victorious powers will be deployed to the former colonies.

English National Broadcasting Agency
Interview with former Socialist Party Congresswoman Flora Blackford, 4th September 1966, by Mary Alexander
Mary Alexander: On the subject of anniversaries, Ms Blackford, today marks the twentieth anniversary of the founding of the Global Summit. You’ve been one of the few prominent political figures to consistently criticise the Summit – may I ask why?
Flora Blackford: Certainly, though I should note that I don’t criticise the idea of the Summit. Indeed, I was one of its most vocal supporters when President Dewey and the Chancellor of Germany announced their intention to set it up. In the aftermath of the war… You have to understand, I’ve always believed in international solidarity. Before the Great War, I honestly thought that the brotherhood of the proletariat would unite the world. So when the Global Summit was announced, I thought that it might be a stepping-stone toward that dream. And that might make sure that the men and women who died in the Second Great War didn’t die for nothing.
Mary Alexander: So what changed?
Flora Blackford: When they announced the composition of the Security Council. The permanent members were the nations who had won the war – in other words, four Empires and a republic that had been moving in the direction of Empire since after the defeat of the Second Mexican War. I knew that it could only engender resentment in the nations that weren’t permanent members, and that ultimately the Global Summit was an attempt by a small clique of nations to dominate the world. Still, though, these things can be changed, so I didn’t openly criticise it at that point.
Mary Alexander: Yes – your history of criticism begins in 1948, with the ‘Mandate Resolution’.
Flora Blackford: Again, in principle I agreed with the thing. Something had to be done to help those nations out of… My apologies. I…I don’t want to appear as though I’m engaging in triumphalism. The superbombings of London, Brighton and Norwich were horrifying, and when I think of the after-effects… Again, I’m sorry. But you have to understand, in 1948, things were…it looked like some good might come out of everything that had happened. The rise of the New Levellers in England was encouraging for any Socialist, and the ending of British and French colonialism...while the path to these events was awful…
Mary Alexander: You don’t need to justify yourself, Ms Blackford. I come from the North of England, and my family – and many from that part of the country – are firm supporters of the Commonwealth and the republican government. As you say, the path was horrible, but we managed to come out of it.
Flora Blackford: Well, as an American Socialist I’m proud that the Commonwealth of England is a friend of the United States. But anyway, my point is, something had to be done to prevent the former colonial territories from slipping into anarchy, and to help organise them into independent nations – not because their people were unable to do so, you understand, but given how ‘divide and conquer’ was often used by colonial powers to control their territory, outside help was necessary. But then Germany announced that they’d be taking the lead in administering former British territories in Africa. Their official justification for this, of course, was that their use of Askari troops from Namibia and South-East Africa and Mittelafrika would ensure that the native peoples didn’t see them as another colonial force. But it was fairly obvious what their intent was – they wanted to establish an informal empire in former British Africa, a network of satellite nations that would supply Berlin with the resources it needed to rebuild after the war. And they began that by propping up the Boer-dominated Volkstaat that emerged in South Africa after Britain’s surrender – not just propping them up, but granting them control over Rhodesia – which just proved how little regard the Reich truly had for the people of Africa. And since then, Confederate war criminals have been able to elude justice for their actions.
Mary Alexander: The Volkstaat Suid-Afrika denies that any former Confederate citizens have settled within its borders.
Flora Blackford: I know they do. And if I was still a Congresswoman, I couldn’t make such statements, but since I’m a private citizen now I can say what I like. One thing that I say is that half the Volkstaat’s military and police apparatus is made up of former Confederates.
Mary Alexander: But returning to the Mandate question…
Flora Blackford: Yes. Germany was clearly trying to build its global influence, and to secure resources – part of the same process that led to their supporting the Netherlands’ continuing occupation of Indonesia. And that inevitably brought their interests into a collision with those of Japan, who felt that they had been insufficiently consulted on the subject of the Mandates. While I’ve never been a supporter of the Empire of Japan…
Mary Alexander: Something, if you’ll pardon me, that marks you apart from a great many people of your faith.
Flora Blackford: Yes. Though the Japanese didn’t leave the Jewish population of their East Siberian territories unharmed, or encourage Jewish refugees from Russia to settle there, out of the goodness of their hearts. From what I’m told, they did it because they thought that Jews had what can only be described as mystical money-making powers. I certainly wish my family had had such abilities, when I was a young woman. Though that said, given how influential Jewish businesses have become in Japanese Siberia, maybe they were right. But in any case, I’ve never supported Japan. Yet even I could see why they’d be disturbed by the resolution. After all, they’d occupied and – in the case of Burma – liberated territory that had once been ruled by Britain. The Mandate Resolution could easily have been taken as a call for them to vacate that territory. Though that alone wouldn’t have been a problem – the United States was able to reassure them that the resolution was only intended for territories unoccupied at the end of the war. But then Germany managed to upset things by the decision to send forces to India…

December, 1948
The German Reich announces its intention to spearhead a Global Summit force to restore order to India, now collapsing into disorder. The force will be composed of German, Austrian, Dutch, Bulgarian and Polish personnel.
Japan, which had been in talks with Indian nationalist leaders such as Subhas Chandra Bose, is affronted at Germany’s unilateral decision to meddle in Asia, as well as alarmed by Germany’s attempt to spread its influence so widely.
The Greater East Asia Treaty Organisation agrees to send a multi-national force to India. Forces land in Southern India at the port city of Chennai, before advancing inland, while Burmese forces advance into Bangladesh and Assam. The action is strongly condemned by the German government, but Japan responds that as a member of the Global Summit, they are permitted to send peacekeeping forces where necessary.
The European force lands at Karachi on the 23rd of December. India effectively becomes divided into two administrative zones, with their border at the Vindhya mountain range. In Northern India, administration is handled through Delhi, while in the South governng authorities are established in Bombay.
The United States appeals for calm and mutual cooperation.

1952
Japan announces the formation of the Republic of India, under President Subhas Chandra Bose.
Germany announces the formation of the Federation of India, under President Nehru and Prime Minister Jinnah.
Both Indias claim to be the rightful rulers of the subcontinent, while Germany and Mitteleuropa refuse to recognise the Republic and GEATO refuses to recognise the Federation. The United States provisionally recognises both nations, while publicly hoping for a speedy resolution to the division of the subcontinent. Germany tries to develop support for the Federation by stressing its cosmopolitan nature, as opposed to the Hindu nationalist rhetoric of the Republic and the Jai Hind ruling party. In actuality, though, the Republic is the more stable of the two nations, as a result of internal tensions between Hindu and Muslim groups in the North.

Interesting update. (Especially the part about Britain going red.) I'm not sure I understand why Germany is intervening in India though? Don't they have enough to worry about in Europe and Africa?

bguy said:

Interesting update. (Especially the part about Britain going red.) I'm not sure I understand why Germany is intervening in India though? Don't they have enough to worry about in Europe and Africa?

Click to expand...

Britain's more pink than red (and only in England). It is a very dark pink, of course, but I figured that wasn't too much of a reach - their traditional establishment dragged them into two losing wars, the last of which ended with death and destruction on a horrific scale, including a triple superbombing. After that, regime change seemed pretty much inevitable...

As to India... I thought hard about it, but in the end I thought of it as Germany getting greedy and somewhat desperate. It's deliberately portrayed as a massive overeach - an effort to ensure the supply of raw materials Germany needs for reconstruction and to sustain itself as a world power. I mean, yes it'd be totally unrealistic if Germany tried to set up a new Raj, but the Global Summit gives them the opportunity for indirect rule via the Mandate system. See, Germany's (somewhat desperate) plan is to link the former British Empire to themselves by using the Mandates to establish friendly regimes.

Also, I seriously doubted that Germany was going to stand back and let Japan bring India into its sphere, as would have been inevitable given the collapse of the British Empire.

It's not going to last, of course. Basically, ITTL, Germany is in the position of Britain or France after the war OTL - ie trying to maintain a colonial empire even as it becomes increasingly obvious that it's impractical.

1955
Premiere of Oni at cinemas in Japan. The film is a landmark in Japanese cinema, in particular science-fiction, but the plot – involving a giant monster that terrorises East Asia before being defeated by the Imperial Japanese Navy – is labelled unsubtle by critics.
Most Mitteleuropan peace-keeping forces have been withdrawn from India. However, two divisions of Dutch troops, a division of German regulars and a division of Askaris remain – just enough to make it clear that any invasion of Northern India would have diplomatic consequences.


1960
German Reich, Republic of China and Kingdom of Australasia loudly protest Japanese development of the superbomb. President Nehru of the Indian Federation makes his now-infamous ‘Bamboo Wall’ speech in Geneva, which leads to a particularly heated response.

Record of Global Summit General Assembly proceedings, 04/13/1960
President Nehru: And I conclude my address to this august body with a plea for stern action with regard to the artificial division of my nation. Where India should be one, it is now two, with the South – the very heart of India – closed off behind a bamboo wall, together with nations across South-East Asia…
Ambassador Nishio: Mr Chairman, I ask you to call the running dog lackey of German imperialism to order.
Chairman Vanger: Ambassador Nishio…
President Nehru: How dare you! I speak for India, for the people sundered by…
Ambassador Nishio: For the past twelve years, the German Empire has been consistently hostile towards Japan’s efforts to uplift the people and nations of East Asia. Since the turn of the century, the Empire of Japan has worked toward the cause of an Asia free of European colonialism. When this august assembly declared its intent to dispatch a multinational force to India, in the wake of the collapse of the British Empire, we contributed to that effort, and we worked to give the people of India the government desired by that people. Yet rather than recognise the will of the Indian people – who clearly demanded the Republic – the German Empire and its allies propped up a regime that was nothing more than a thinly-veiled colonial puppet state, dominated by the interests of regional nobility and German economic concerns.
Ambassador Dowling: Gentlemen, this profits no-one…
Ambassador Goldmann: I’m sure that the people of the Philippines feel particularly ‘uplifted’, Ambassador Nishio.
Ambassador Nishio: The Philippines have been a part of the Japanese sphere since the era of Toyotomi Hideyoshi, before they were wrested away by Spain. The same cannot be said, however, for German Mittelafrika, for Namibia, for South-East Africa, or for what used to be French Madagascar, where the German military has amassed a record for brutality that would put the Congo Free State to shame.
Ambassador Goldman: Mr Chairman, I call upon you to censure the Ambassador from Japan for his slanderous accusations!
Ambassador Nishio: In addition, I would note that even though the states of former French Africa joined this assembly as full members of the brotherhood of nations, the Mandates in former British Africa remain under administrations that are heavily influenced by Germany. Add to this continued German support for the Ottoman Empire as it oppresses its Arab subjects, and to the ongoing Dutch occupation of Indonesia… Ambassador Dowling, as a man who fought against the Confederate States of America, how can you in good conscience stand by a nation that seems intent on treating people of colour in the same way as the nation that perpetuated the Black Holocaust?
Ambassador Goldman: (Abusive imprecations) I demand that the Japanese ambassador be expelled from this Assembly! My government will demand a full apology…
(Uproar from representatives from Mitteleuropa nations, from the Ottoman Empire’s amassador, and from GEATO representatives)
Chairman Vanger: Order!