WI: American War in the 1980s

Based on a previous thread. During the 1980s, there was certainly the possibility of an American conflict somewhere in the world. It could have been in Latin America, or the Middle East, or potentially somewhere else in the world. America had enemies like Gaddafi and Khomeini, and under other circumstances Reagan could have been a wartime president.

Under what circumstances could the US have found itself at war in the 1980s, and what if the United States was at war in the 1980s?

Iran (purposefully or not) kills the hostages in '79, leading to a US invasion and possible occupation.

or

Reagan orders more troops be sent to Lebanon to stabilize it.

or

The US gives the Nicaraguan regime/the Contras direct military intervention, such as a bombing campaign and SF and advisers.

That's the ones off the top of my head, and personally, I think the war with Iran is the most plausible.

Well, there's always Able Archer.

gladiator8085 said:

Well, there's always Able Archer.

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No, that would destroy everything and anything.

The purpose isn't WW3. The concept is really a war in a smaller nation or a proxy war or something like that.

Personally, my favorite scenario is one set somewhere in Latin America. The 80s was a time of high Marxist activity there, and it seems to me we could have seen a war there without so much Post-Vietnam opposition.

Three very strong possibilities: Increased U.S. involvement in the Tanker War in the Persian Gulf (1987-88) is one. Iranian mischief-making forces the U.S. to seize Iran's islands in the Gulf, and take the Silkworm SSM sites on the Iranian Mainland.....which the Iranians feared because the bulk of Iran's army and Rev Guard is tied down fighting the Iraqis.

The second: U.S. invasion of Nicaragua. Several military exercises with Honduras in the 1983-86 time period were seen as a dress rehearsal for such a move. Not to mention buildup of base infrastructure in Honduras (port and road improvements, building several new air bases) that would be needed to support an invasion. Pretext? It's been said that Nicaraguan officials told the Russians that they would be happy to host Soviet SS-20 IRBMs in Nicaragua. (source is the Washington Post on several different occasions in the '80s) Though the Russians said no, WI the Nicaraguans are in Moscow, and word gets back to D.C, that they are negotiating for the missiles? To prevent another Missiles of October, Reagan decides to eliminate the Sandinsta Regime before the missiles can be shipped.....

Another? Second Korean War in the 1980s. Enough said there....

Emperor Norton I said:

Personally, my favorite scenario is one set somewhere in Latin America. The 80s was a time of high Marxist activity there, and it seems to me we could have seen a war there without so much Post-Vietnam opposition.

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I'd say it depends on how large the US footprint is there. If it's a Linebacker type bombing with SF and advisers, then most people would be fine with it, but if it's a ground invasion and occupation with heavy amounts of US troops, then the anti-war movement would be out on the streets, screaming "No more Vietnams!"

The second: U.S. invasion of Nicaragua.Pretext? It's been said that Nicaraguan officials told the Russians that they would be happy to host Soviet SS-20 IRBMs in Nicaragua.

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Refer to my above statement.

Another? Second Korean War in the 1980s. Enough said there....

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The Kims are power hungry madmen, but they aren't stupid. They know that an attack on South Korea is suicide at worst and little achieved at best.

I still stand by my Alt Hostage Crisis scenario.

In Latin America especially, there could be a cry of "this is another Vietnam" given the terrain and jungles and all of that which immediately come to mind. I still think Reagan could have started out with a smaller US intervention and expanded it from there if he had a mind to.

The Middle East I think is easier. It's psychologically disconnected to Vietnam to the average American, and we did have some enemies there. Americans hated Gaddafi and hated the Ayatollah, so I think you could sell a war against either one with a proper casus belli.

On the whole, I think the 1980s American thinking was really that there should be a war with some of the bad guys, and since there wasn't, we'd play pretend ones. Hence why Hulk Hogan crushed a picture of Gaddafi in his music video and fought the Iron Sheik, and why you had GI JOE and Top Gun. I would say that was why the public was ok with going into the Gulf War shortly into the 1990s.

How quickly we forget our glorious liberation of Grenada! Not to mention the deposition of Noriega.

But have either slightly bloodier (and remember that there was bloodshed OTL), and either might count.

Grenada is too small to be anything that big. But the example of intervention in Grenada supports the idea that the US could intervene elsewhere.

It did remind me of this:

http://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/puppet-class/n27673

I was in elementary school and middle school in the early to mid 1980s and I remember talking about Nicaragua as a strong possibility in social studies classes. Even with the hostage crisis in Iran we seemed to talk about Nicaragua more than anything else.

Perhaps Saddam announces he's got Nukes early than OTL, and instead of Gafaddi doing Lockerbie in '88.. It's Saddam in '84... and it's over American Soil...

P.S. I claim the right to reserve a TL on that!

Emperor Norton I said:

The Middle East I think is easier. It's psychologically disconnected to Vietnam to the average American, and we did have some enemies there.

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Except the "No more Nams!" cry came into play in 1983, 1991, and 1993. These got shouted down in the Gulf War, but the other two weren't.

Americans hated Gaddafi and hated the Ayatollah, so I think you could sell a war against either one with a proper casus belli.

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The Ayatollah for sure, Dafi slightly less so, but doable.

TrumanJohnson said:

Perhaps Saddam announces he's got Nukes early than OTL, and instead of Gafaddi doing Lockerbie in '88.. It's Saddam in '84... and it's over American Soil...

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Unlikely, as Israel would never tolerate any Arab country with nukes longer than the time it would take to fuel up their bombers, Saddam wasn't an idiot who wanted to provoke the US (especially in '84), and because his number one target was Iran, not the US.

TrumanJohnson said:

Perhaps Saddam announces he's got Nukes early than OTL, and instead of Gafaddi doing Lockerbie in '88.. It's Saddam in '84... and it's over American Soil...

P.S. I claim the right to reserve a TL on that!

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In 1984 US-Iraqi relations were not that bad all things considered. Heck, here is a picture of Don Rumsfeld and Mr. Hussein in December 1983.

Zheng He said:

In 1984 US-Iraqi relations were not that bad all things considered. Heck, here is a picture of Don Rumsfeld and Mr. Hussein in December 1983.

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Good relations don't necessarily mean a war won't happen.

Bumping to ask:

Does anyone have an idea as to how some of these hypothetical wars would play out, like Nicaragua, Iran, or Libya?

I think Iran in the late 1970's early 1980's is by far the most likely. In fact, there were some in the US that believed Carter should have asked for a formal declaration of war against the Iranian regime based on the embassy seizure and used this to seize all Iranian assets, hold Iranian nationals in the US as "enemy aliens", institute a naval and air blockade of Iran, and use all other mechanisms allowed by a formal state of war against Iran short of direct military action against Iranian territory.

Throwing Lebanon out there.

TrumanJohnson said:

Good relations don't necessarily mean a war won't happen.

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Too right, look at Argie - UK relations right up until the invasion of the Falklands.

We were selling them military equipment to them like it was going out of fashion.

"Type 42's anyone?" KEEEERRRRCHING!!!!!

"Second hand Vulcan's after we've retired them Sir?"!!!

"While were at it, how about 1,OOOlb bombs for your aircraft?" KEEEEERRRRCHING!!!!!!

Regards filer

ThePest179 said:

Bumping to ask:

Does anyone have an idea as to how some of these hypothetical wars would play out, like Nicaragua, Iran, or Libya?

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I can tell you how the homefront would play out. It would be all kinds of "Morning in America" patriotism. I remember a lot of the advertising from that era was very much warm looking film where kids wore baseball caps, you had a house in suburbia and everyone waved flags and was very happy and pleasant. There'd be a portion of the country very angry about the war: my culture analogy being that despite Happy to Be Stuck With You, we did have How Soon is Now?. But at least initially, it'd be that flag waving feeling mixed with a mood of fear over another Vietnam which is nonetheless lessening as the years progressed. It depends how the war goes on whether there is a backlash.