TL-191 DBWI: What if the U.S. Had Re-annexed the Confederacy?

On May 10th, 1945 President Dewey approved JCS (Joint Chiefs of Staff policy) 1067 which directed the U.S. forces of occupation in the Confederate States to "...take no steps looking toward the economic rehabilitation of the Confederacy [nor steps] designed to maintain or strengthen the Confederate economy" and to "prepare the former Confederate States for pastoralization and re-integration into the Union."

Two years later, however, Dewey did an about-face: It had become increasingly apparent that reintegrating the Confederacy into the United States after nearly a century of independence was more trouble than it was worth. Indeed, a number of higher ups in Dewey's cabinet predicted that attempting to reintegrate the Confederacy would lead to the emboldening of Freedomite holdouts and the start of a guerrilla war that would drain both blood and treasure at a time when neither could be spared.

A rump Confederacy comprised of Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana and Florida was formed in 1949; Cuba was granted independence, while Chihuahua and Sonora were returned to Mexico and their Caucasian populations expelled. Over the years, the Confederacy has grown leaps and bounds in social, political and economic terms. Today, the "new south" is a high-tech, industrialized economy; a far cry from the burnt out husk of a totalitarian state that it was in 1945.

Along with Mexico and the United States, it is one of the "big three" in the North American Union and a formidable - if somewhat pacifistic - middle power in its own right. The Confederacy has come to terms with its unsavory history - both Freedomite and pre-Freedomite - thanks to the efforts of protest movements like the Yellow Magnolias in the 1960's.

As a Yankee expat sitting here in Tampa, my question to you is what would've happened if the United States had annexed the Confederate States outright. Would the worst predictions have come true and Neo-Freedomite groups risen up or were their fears unfounded?

OOC: ITTL, Dewey's plans for re-integrating the Confederacy went about as far as the Morgenthau Plan did in Germany. The rump Confederacy is essentially a subtropical version of (West) Germany.

It easily could have gone the other way regarding annexation, and I think that the fears of Freedomite insurgency are a bit overblown; I imagine a transition of the Southern States back into the Union wouldn't be greatly difficult in the long-term; through it definitely could have been bloody given the near century long history of hatred between "Yankees" and "Rebs"

Kaiser K said:

It easily could have gone the other way regarding annexation, and I think that the fears of Freedomite insurgency are a bit overblown; I imagine a transition of the Southern States back into the Union wouldn't be greatly difficult in the long-term; through it definitely could have been bloody given the near century long history of hatred between "Yankees" and "Rebs"

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I've heard that one, too. Alot of historians say that loyalty to "the cause" was greatly overblown and if a plebiscite had been held by Dewey, a vote in favor of annexation (albeit by a slim margin) would've been the likely outcome.

Binky the Clown said:

I've heard that one, too. Alot of historians say that loyalty to "the cause" was greatly overblown and if a plebiscite had been held by Dewey, a vote in favor of annexation (albeit by a slim margin) would've been the likely outcome.

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If we're just talking about the core Confederacy east of the Mississippi, I'm inclined to disagree. Keeping a boot on them would've been doable. But fusing the US and ex-CS? It'd damage both. You'd essentially be entrenching the Democrats with a rock solid electoral block that would, if anything, drag the party far more rightward than it ever was under Goldwater. There weren't enough blacks left to give the Socialists a chance.

The portions outside the CSA's core I think are doable. Chihuahua and Sonora could've been incorporated without too much trouble. There's still a small but vigorous secessionist movement in both states, given how they've always been seen as too "Anglo" for Mexico. Cuba... maybe.

Texas is the big question mark. The US re-annxed them partly for the oil, partly to cut the Confederacy off from its traditional southern ally.

If the US goes through with annexing the rest of the Confederacy, I think the Second Texas Republic would survive. The fact Texas was already nominally independent since the SGW would make it a headache to justify annexation politically ITTL, and might start worrying Mexico and others that the US was going full-blown expansionist. OTL they got away with it because Mexico was sated and Cuba's independence reassured the Caribbean. Here, they'd lack all that. Very different optics ITTL. Plus, it'd be one more damn place to put boots on the ground.

Then again, say they do go through with annexing everything formerly Confederate, including Texas. You might see Mexico and the rest of Latin America try to swing some sort of defensive alliance while the US digests the CSA. That'd be fun down the road!

But who to ally with to tool up? Germany? Too busy digesting Europe. Brazil? Too close for comfort. Japan?

...Actually, that might not be as crazy as it sounds, given this was at the tail end of Japan's insanely militarist "steal everything not nailed down" phase. (Which to be fair worked out pretty well for them. Somehow.) Although a Mexican alliance might only encourage the worst tendencies of 1940s Japan.

Binky the Clown said:

I've heard that one, too. Alot of historians say that loyalty to "the cause" was greatly overblown and if a plebiscite had been held by Dewey, a vote in favor of annexation (albeit by a slim margin) would've been the likely outcome.

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The Confederate people were pretty broken at the end of the war, and belief in Confederate nationalism was pretty shaken, many at the time wondered whether the state was worth salvaging or whether it and the idea of it should die; I think annexation if presented in the right terms could have worked.

Binky the Clown said:

On May 10th, 1945 President Dewey approved JCS (Joint Chiefs of Staff policy) 1067 which directed the U.S. forces of occupation in the Confederate States to "...take no steps looking toward the economic rehabilitation of the Confederacy [nor steps] designed to maintain or strengthen the Confederate economy" and to "prepare the former Confederate States for pastoralization and re-integration into the Union."

Two years later, however, Dewey did an about-face: It had become increasingly apparent that reintegrating the Confederacy into the United States after nearly a century of independence was more trouble than it was worth. Indeed, a number of higher ups in Dewey's cabinet predicted that attempting to reintegrate the Confederacy would lead to the emboldening of Freedomite holdouts and the start of a guerrilla war that would drain both blood and treasure at a time when neither could be spared.

A rump Confederacy comprised of Virginia, the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana and Florida was formed in 1949; Cuba was granted independence, while Chihuahua and Sonora were returned to Mexico and their Caucasian populations expelled. Over the years, the Confederacy has grown leaps and bounds in social, political and economic terms. Today, the "new south" is a high-tech, industrialized economy; a far cry from the burnt out husk of a totalitarian state that it was in 1945.

Along with Mexico and the United States, it is one of the "big three" in the North American Union and a formidable - if somewhat pacifistic - middle power in its own right. The Confederacy has come to terms with its unsavory history - both Freedomite and pre-Freedomite - thanks to the efforts of protest movements like the Yellow Magnolias in the 1960's.

As a Yankee expat sitting here in Tampa, my question to you is what would've happened if the United States had annexed the Confederate States outright. Would the worst predictions have come true and Neo-Freedomite groups risen up or were their fears unfounded?

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The only really strong Freedomite strongholds would've been in the poorest states such as Mississippi, Alabama, and unsurprisingly Tennessee under martial law, along with the northern half of Florida and the rural areas of Georgia. You can only get so many Confederate white men, young and old, to restart the Second Great War with only hopped-up nationalism and brainwashing.

That said, even with the Confederate identity in pieces the Southerners wouldn't like being forced to integrate with the blacks the U.S. had just liberated. The racial superiority of whites over blacks would've have endured in their minds indefinitely, if only to just be contrary to "black Yankee policy." They had to get over it themselves, forcing them to integrate and accept blacks as equals would've incited more violence even if its not as apocalyptic as Dewey was made to believe.

For what its worth, they could've integrated Virginia. Its really close to D.C., they could've annexed them as a buffer if the occupied Confederacy wanted to re-sign their death warrant.

Kaiser K said:

The Confederate people were pretty broken at the end of the war, and belief in Confederate nationalism was pretty shaken, many at the time wondered whether the state was worth salvaging or whether it and the idea of it should die; I think annexation if presented in the right terms could have worked.

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I agree. As I recall, somewhere near the end of the book, In at the Death, General Potter picks up a US propaganda leaflet advising the CS people to behave like good Americans, and he speculates that the US will most likely experience success in using such tactics. Why would the people of the CS continue to cling to the Freedom Party, when the only thing the Freedom Party can provide them is death and destruction? The US on the other hand is able to provide them with televisions, well stocked grocery stores, and jobs building the new interstate freeway system. No doubt the US would be able to find plenty of disaffected bureaucrats, from the pre-Freedom party government, who would only be to willing to help the US integrate the CS back into the US.

Turtledove Got It Wrong

I think that Turtledove got a it wrong, and in reality it is hard to imagine any situation in which the Confederate States could have actually gained independence from the US. Perhaps if the British had decided to offer the US all of Canada in exchange for releasing the Confederate States, then maybe the CS could have become an independent nation. Or, perhaps if the North had been struck by some sort of major calamity, that didn't effect the South, then maybe the CS could have gained independence that way also.

I don't think that sending British troops to North America would have changed the ultimate outcome of the war, and I think that the US would have fought both the South and the British to the bitter end in order to prevent the CS from breaking away. However, if by some miracle the CS had gained independence, then the individual states comprising the CS would have most likely come drifiting back into the US over the following years, as they quickly realize it is better to be part of a strong federal republic, instead of loose confederation with a weak central government.

However, what if Jefferson Davis had not ordered the attack on Fort Sumter, and what if he simply sat back and put the ball in Lincoln's court? I think that under those circumstances there would be much less desire for war amongst the people of the North, but eventually some sort of compromises and reconciliation would have to be made in order to preserve the country. In the end we might be living in a country called the United States of America, but perhaps our national flag might be the Stars and Bars, and maybe our capital would be in Richmond. Or, maybe the name of our country might be the Confederate States of America, and our flag might be the Stars and Stripes. If Davis hadn't bombed Fort Sumter, then perhaps there might have been calls for a new constitutional convention, and the country would have to remake itself all over again.

Lavanya Six said:

If we're just talking about the core Confederacy east of the Mississippi, I'm inclined to disagree. Keeping a boot on them would've been doable. But fusing the US and ex-CS? It'd damage both. You'd essentially be entrenching the Democrats with a rock solid electoral block that would, if anything, drag the party far more rightward than it ever was under Goldwater. There weren't enough blacks left to give the Socialists a chance.

The portions outside the CSA's core I think are doable. Chihuahua and Sonora could've been incorporated without too much trouble. There's still a small but vigorous secessionist movement in both states, given how they've always been seen as too "Anglo" for Mexico. Cuba... maybe.

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The Democrats wouldn't like that either. Giving the Socialists Sonora and Chihuahua would mean more minorities they have to cater to. The ex-Confederate blacks were always going to vote Socialist, no reason to have more people vote against them.

Lavanya Six said:

Texas is the big question mark. The US re-annxed them partly for the oil, partly to cut the Confederacy off from its traditional southern ally.

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It was also to stem the tide of white American settlement in Sequoyah. By 1950, Sequoyah was 58% white and 15% white/Native mixed. The U.S. didn't want the Civilized Tribes rioting over the loss of whatever they had left, so they re-annexed Texas so white Americans could settle there instead. Not that it worked anyway, even adding the Kickapoo to make it the Six Civilized Tribes did nothing to stem immigration to Sequoyah.

Lavanya Six said:

If the US goes through with annexing the rest of the Confederacy, I think the Second Texas Republic would survive. The fact Texas was already nominally independent since the SGW would make it a headache to justify annexation politically ITTL, and might start worrying Mexico and others that the US was going full-blown expansionist. OTL they got away with it because Mexico was sated and Cuba's independence reassured the Caribbean. Here, they'd lack all that. Very different optics ITTL. Plus, it'd be one more damn place to put boots on the ground.

Then again, say they do go through with annexing everything formerly Confederate, including Texas. You might see Mexico and the rest of Latin America try to swing some sort of defensive alliance while the US digests the CSA. That'd be fun down the road!

But who to ally with to tool up? Germany? Too busy digesting Europe. Brazil? Too close for comfort. Japan?

...Actually, that might not be as crazy as it sounds, given this was at the tail end of Japan's insanely militarist "steal everything not nailed down" phase. (Which to be fair worked out pretty well for them. Somehow.) Although a Mexican alliance might only encourage the worst tendencies of 1940s Japan.

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Speaking as a Japanese-Filipino American (God, that's a mouthful), Japan didn't stop its rampage until 1952 when Matsui Iwane (Iwane Matsui for you Westerners) was appointed as Minister of War so Tojo Hideki could keep his position as Prime Minister (he was at risk of losing the IJN and the moderate IJA factions since his disastrous Invasions of India and Burma in '46-47). He then called for the end of war across the Pacific so he focus on consolidation and Nipponization of Manchukuo (like that was going to stay independent), Outer Manchuria (what used to be Russia's Pacific shore line, including Vladivostok), Sakhalin, Taiwan, Hainan, Hong kong, Macau, Shanghai, the Philippines, and the Kamchatka Peninsula. Japan had agreed to keep Mongolia's independence, even letting it take Inner Mongolia, in exchange for its support against any Russian or Chinese incursion.

China's a wreck, even after the end of Japanese occupation, so they're out. Russia's out, St. Petersburg was a nuclear crater at the time and the Germans had sunbombs over Moscow and Volgograd (the Ottomans had agreed to host German Intercontintental Ballistic Rockets in the Caucausian provinces), and Japan was Nipponizing the Kamchatka Peninsula and Outer Manchuria.

Germany bit off more than they could chew: they had annexed Franche-Comte, Courland, and Livonia but were having trouble Prussiafying all three, German troops were busy helping Polish forces pacify the Belarusian territories Poland acquired from the 1947 Treaty of Bialystok, and was losing control of Cameroon, Nigeria, former French West Africa, and Algeria; the former two forming the Federal Republic of Nigeria in 1955 after Germany gave up fighting and gave them the vote.

So yeah, had the U.S. try to annex everything it would have just been mass national suicide. It was not at all that easy as Turtledove had it in his final book of the "Second World War" saga, Live in Infamy.



OOC: That a bit too much, or is it workable?