During the conquest of Sicily by the Normans the seeds were sown for the eventual decline of the Arab population of the island. Your challenge should you accept it is for Sicily to become and stay majority Arab until the modern day. What kinds of consequences could occur from this? Another branch of Arabic is left alive at the very least...
AHC: Arab majority in Sicily
- Thread starter Bartholome de Fonte
- Start date
First step is of course, prevent the Norman conquest.
The continuity to present day will depend on protection over the island from long term Christian subjugation. This might require a more politically stable North Africa to back it up, if not down to at least partially Islamized Italy as a buffer. So I guess prevent Norman conquest by putting it under protection of a stable North African long enough to enable it lasting until the coming of Ottomans or any Islamic geopolitical equivalent, which will then go on conquering Southern Italy thus giving it a buffer until the later's possible reconquista by either Christian north or the French. By then Sicily will have been an Arab country for many more centuries then OTL and it will be impossible to reverse it.
Or won't it ? Since I don't think Arabic Sicily will have the best of relations with Christian Europe and, will it ever come under European rule, it'll might get Algerian treatment at the very least.
The continuity to present day will depend on protection over the island from long term Christian subjugation. This might require a more politically stable North Africa to back it up, if not down to at least partially Islamized Italy as a buffer. So I guess prevent Norman conquest by putting it under protection of a stable North African long enough to enable it lasting until the coming of Ottomans or any Islamic geopolitical equivalent, which will then go on conquering Southern Italy thus giving it a buffer until the later's possible reconquista by either Christian north or the French. By then Sicily will have been an Arab country for many more centuries then OTL and it will be impossible to reverse it.
Or won't it ? Since I don't think Arabic Sicily will have the best of relations with Christian Europe and, will it ever come under European rule, it'll might get Algerian treatment at the very least.
I don't know if this qualifies but if Suleiman the Magnificent had been luckier and the Ottomans had taken Vienna, Malta, Southern Italy, and The Indian Ocean and Sehzade Mustafa succeeds him there isn't much left to do but defend the holdings, focus on infrastructure of the empire, etc.
In such a scenario it might not be ridiculous to assume that Turks, Arabs, Berbers, and Afro-Arabs might move into Southern Italy and Sicily, if firmly Ottoman, might not be the worst of those territories for them to move.
In such a scenario it might not be ridiculous to assume that Turks, Arabs, Berbers, and Afro-Arabs might move into Southern Italy and Sicily, if firmly Ottoman, might not be the worst of those territories for them to move.
Arabs were never the majority in medieval Sicily to begin with : not only because the native population outnumbered them but as well due to the large Berber presence in Islamic forces.
While Arabs formed ruling elites, and cultural arabisation managed to advance rather quickly (by the time of Norman Conquest, still, probably half of the population was still Christian).
Arab majority in medieval Sicily would require Arab majority in Ifriqiya, asking for a PoD at least in the VIIIth century.
Even if Normans refrain themselves to takeover the Island, the structural instability of Islamic Sicily (that ended with political division, as in Al-Andalus, which share several features) and North Africa; the Christian dominance of western Mediterranean sea (preventing reinforcements) would prevent a political permanance.
Eventually, someone would take over : if not Normans, then Byzantines, Italians, etc. At best, you'll have a minority in Sicily that would be comparable to OTL Maltese situation : an Arabised but Christian native population.
I don't think a lasting Muslim Sicily is impossible, but it does need a chain of luck that leaves it shifting from one muslim caretaker/trampoline to another. And it's safe to expect Algerian treatment to eventually befall them. But that should be enough.
It depends on your definition of "lasting" : fifty more years is doable (a strong North African emirate, for instance) but up to modern day? That's a big no : too divided, too unstable, not cohesive enough while neighbours had sea control and forces to do it.
Just to be on safe side : you're talking of Spanish policy on Algeria, aka setting up a series of outposts, right? Cause XIXth century situation badly applies to medieval and late medieval eras.
Then, if someone is able to surround Sicily with military outpost by the XIIth century, eventually it would means Sicily being a protectorate than absorbated.
GdwnsnHo
Banned
The easiest way that I can see for ensuring an Arab Siciliy survives is for the Arabs & Berbers in such as state to convert to Catholism, or Orthodoxy (and join the byzantines).
Combine that with encouraging Christian Arabs or the Christian populations of Arab states to join them. Not only does it mean that they could escape retaliation by Christians in Italy, but the semi-arabised populations joining them could essentially 'Arabise' the area.
In addition, perhaps involve the Normans in the conversion? If they can be a counter to the Berbers the Arabs can play the two off one another whilst they increase their numbers.
Admittedly they wouldn't be the Arab we know and see today, but it would be Arabised at the very least.
Combine that with encouraging Christian Arabs or the Christian populations of Arab states to join them. Not only does it mean that they could escape retaliation by Christians in Italy, but the semi-arabised populations joining them could essentially 'Arabise' the area.
In addition, perhaps involve the Normans in the conversion? If they can be a counter to the Berbers the Arabs can play the two off one another whilst they increase their numbers.
Admittedly they wouldn't be the Arab we know and see today, but it would be Arabised at the very least.
It would still represent a minor part of the population (again, the OP is flawed, as Arabs *never* formed the majority of Muslim Sicily), natives outnumbering both Arabs and Berbers, making these assimilating to the formers rather than the reverse.
First, you didn't had "Arab states" but Muslims states with native or Arabic rulers and elites.
Then, admitting that Christians in Muslims states have internet access or any kind of way to know that they're invited to move to Sicily, it's unlikely that Oriental Christians would leave their pluri-secular homes (critically when they had a really distinct church than Roman or Greek) for the sake of making Sicily looks better on a map.
Finally, it's highly dubious that Muslims rulers would just let a good part of their population just run away. For Palestine or Egypt, we're talking about 40% of it. Not only it was a large part, more on countryside than towns (something that may be important to the latter not...well, starving) but a good source of income as well with additional taxes.
As did the Hohenstaufens who followed them. But by this time, the Muslims were a small minority of Sicily.
In a genetic sense not even Mesopotamia and the Levant, let alone Egypt and the Maghreb are majority Arab. So I must assume you mean in a cultural-linguistic sense.
We could pull this off as late as the Hohenstaufen with a two-part POD. First, get a solid foothold in North Africa. Second, and this is tricky, maintain Arabic as an important administrative and cultural language. The last bit could work with a few generations of philio-Arabic rulers like Roger II and Frederick II, but it would require a bit of a balancing act to avoid a crusade being directed against them successfully (outright conversion would be a Really Bad Idea).