Plausibility check: Colonial power controls Japan?

Is it possible for Portugal, the Netherlands, Britain, France, Spain or Russia to conquer, colonize or make a puppet state out of Japan at any point post-1815?

I understand that there aren't a lot of resources, but then there aren't too many resources in other lands the Europeans colonized and the Tokugawa Shogunate did fear Europeans trying to conquer Japan, so it's not impossible for them to want to. But are they capable of doing so?

How would the other powers react?

I'd preferably like a Dutch Japan, if you think it's possible.

What would Korea's fate be in such a world?
 
Well, by the 1860s European military power had decisively left the Japanese behind, which is what prompted the whole Meiji Restoration in the first place. If you can make Japan's modernisation programme fail -- which shouldn't be impossible, since lots of similar programmes have failed or been only partially successful -- there's no reason why Europeans shouldn't be able to make Japan a protectorate or even a colony. I'm not sure the Dutch would have been the ones to do it, though, since by the 19th century they'd slipped out of the big league of European powers.
 
I asked a similar question quite a while ago, but I got no definitive answer. There was some speculation on who could do it on other threads though, and the answers were basically that Spain could do it sometime in the 17th or 18th centuries, but post-1815. Spain probably can't do it anymore.

My best guess is that either France or Britain could conquer/colonize/puppetize Japan, since they have the necessary power projection.

Another option is a China-like situation with interest spheres between various European powers.
 
Japan was a militarized, organized society, with a sense of national identity that had been fostered over centuries of peace during the Edo Period. This can be seen in successful political movements such as "Revere the emperor, expel the barbarians". While individual domains may be able to be conquered by the Europeans, the Japanese would undoubtedly unite against a common enemy and fight back to such an extent that attempting to subjugate Japan would be either impossible or simply not worth it. The success of European imperialism in China can be attributed to a lack of nationalism and political awareness, which however was present in Japan. Japan and China are not comparable; the Qing Empire was an extremely heterogeneous, disunited empire, whereas Japan was dominated by one ethnicity and had a greater sense of unity. Technology is just one factor.
 
Greater UK and French intervention in the Boshin War - end it with a stalemate between UK-influenced Empire in the south and French-influenced Shogunate in the north.
 

Beer

Banned
Greater UK and French intervention in the Boshin War - end it with a stalemate between UK-influenced Empire in the south and French-influenced Shogunate in the north.
Hi!

Interesting idea, but a simple question: Why should they? In that timeframe, Japan was a very much side-theatre. France and Britain were far more interested in China and Southeast Asia. This was one reason Japan got the time they needed to modernise.
There would have to be a very different situation wotld wide that GB and/or France would intervene more in the Boshin War or in Japan at all.

In addition, a greater involvment of France would lead to a greater involvement of Prussia/Germany too. It is not well known, but in the 1860s/70s, there was interest about buying Hokkaido in Berlin. While it came to naught OTL, due to the focus on the Unification of Germany, Berlin kept a deeper vigil on Japan compared to most other Great Powers of that era. In the book "Ferne Gefährten (2011)" the relations Berlin-Tokyo between 1860-1900 were described as a golden time.
As a German myself, I want to kick Willy IIs ass for letting his personal paranoia muddy that relations until after WW1. Japan proposed the treaty they made with London to Berlin first! A facepalm induced by paranoia. After WW1 the relations soon returned to roughly a level they were before 1900.
 

Deleted member 67076

Spain in theory could do it, if they changed their entire style of ruling and goals to give them greater presence and flexibility. This means settling on the level of Britain IOTL, lessening the tribute, investing more in the colonies, being more pragmatic about religious differences, calming down with that centralization and taxation policies which really upset many in the empire.

They also need to keep Portugal, the Netherlands, Sicily and Southern Italy, to obtain a stronger New Spain and to avoid around half as many European wars to get the necessary men and money for this invasion.

It would also be best to focus on settling Angola with more men and establishing a greater presence on Formosa and the Philippines. Probably would be best if they managed to settle the Cape and keep a naval fleet around there.
 
Is it possible for Portugal, the Netherlands, Britain, France, Spain or Russia to conquer, colonize or make a puppet state out of Japan at any point post-1815?

I understand that there aren't a lot of resources, but then there aren't too many resources in other lands the Europeans colonized and the Tokugawa Shogunate did fear Europeans trying to conquer Japan, so it's not impossible for them to want to. But are they capable of doing so?

How would the other powers react?

I'd preferably like a Dutch Japan, if you think it's possible.

What would Korea's fate be in such a world?


I do believe this is not possible. There is nothing that the Europeans would want that can easily get in other Asian countries which have abundant natural resources.

Japan has a very organized disciplined military although backward compared to Europe 1816-1850s. Japan has tens of millions of manpower to use.

Europe will probably win initially especially at the coastal areas. However, any European invasion would be at best at ten thousand. Japan in the Sengoku period can get around hundreds of thousands of samurai with capability to tap that tens of millions of manpower. So by the time the Japanese adapt, it would be a turn around, and the European nation invading will have little to no resources left.

The best description of a European nation trying to colonize Japan is extremely costly with little to no benefits.
 
Markets? Soldiers? Prestige from conquering the unconquerable?:p

Soldier nope? JP's wouldn't willingly join their conqueror and forcing them will make it worse.

Yup, prestige. In the history books "And this Euro power conquered Japan...and screwed itself over in the process." :p

The only way I see a foreign power controlling Japan is indirectly while keeping it independent.
 

Deleted member 67076

Soldier nope? JP's wouldn't willingly join their conqueror and forcing them will make it worse.
Well, many colonial powers got plenty of troops from their colonies. The British in India for instance; the Spanish used levies from various Natives tribes. Payment in land and money (which for instance the Spanish had plenty) usually worked wonders in recruiting native troops.

Yup, prestige. In the history books "And this Euro power conquered Japan...and screwed itself over in the process." :p
Literally every colonial nation in Africa at some point:p

The only way I see a foreign power controlling Japan is indirectly while keeping it independent.
You could have a very slow, methodical conquest ala India happen beginning in the Sengoku Period as powers begin to entrench themselves.

To use my example of Spain with its added reforms, lets say a Catholic Daimyo who converted in exchange for aid and weapons eventually gets Spain to intervene on their side. This comes at the cost of the Lord giving a city or so to the Spanish where they turn it into their version of Hong Kong for instance and settle it. Later on, if the Lord gets a coalition against him Spain plays their cards right and vassalizes the territory, effectively gaining a foothold in the Home Islands. They then begin to play the statelets against each other (who are most certainly more interested in fighting each other rather than the Spanish) while absorbing more and more territory as time passes. That would be enough to gain a decent foothold which could, although its unlikely, lead to a full scale conquest as time passes.

Many of the excess Samurai in Japan would be mollified by grants of land in the New World, Africa, the Spice Islands and as use as mercenary units in Spain's, many, many, many wars.
 
Well, many colonial powers got plenty of troops from their colonies. The British in India for instance; the Spanish used levies from various Natives tribes. Payment in land and money (which for instance the Spanish had plenty) usually worked wonders in recruiting native troops.

The military organization and discipline in Japan is very different from the countries you mentioned even though backward by 1815s western standard. Not only that, you will get more in value in conquering India or any other asian nation than conquering Japan. The power of the Daimyo is diminished in 1815.

The Spice islands/South East Asia were not yet fully conquered in 1815. So, why focus on Japan?

Having the resources also does not cut it. You need sufficient sea lift capability just to use those resources. Japan is an island. You need significant amount of resources to sealift a substantial amount of troops and resources to keep the beach head in Japan. Too little it will just be wiped out upon enbarkment. Invading Japan in 1815 is as costly as invading USA in 1815. Both are weaker than the current great powers but both are sufficient to repel any great power defensively.

In 1281, you need at least 100-150k invasion force. in 1815, the western nation might need 500k highly trained/equipped invasion force just to keep the beachead and keep winning battles.
 

Deleted member 67076

The military organization and discipline in Japan is very different from the countries you mentioned even though backward by 1815s western standard. Not only that, you will get more in value in conquering India or any other asian nation than conquering Japan. The power of the Daimyo is diminished in 1815.

The Spice islands/South East Asia were not yet fully conquered in 1815. So, why focus on Japan?
Be that as it may, Japan still produced excellent troops that would be of great use in a power's foreign wars as mercenary units or security.

That's for a country to decide not me. I can only give suggestions as to why. Initially I suggested the use of opening up markets for their goods or via protection of Christians in the country.

Having the resources also does not cut it. You need sufficient sea lift capability just to use those resources. Japan is an island. You need significant amount of resources to sealift a substantial amount of troops and resources to keep the beach head in Japan. Too little it will just be wiped out upon enbarkment. Invading Japan in 1815 is as costly as invading USA in 1815. Both are weaker than the current great powers but both are sufficient to repel any great power defensively.

In 1281, you need at least 100-150k invasion force. in 1815, the western nation might need 500k highly trained/equipped invasion force just to keep the beachead and keep winning battles.
Which is precisely why I chose the idea to be invited in as a patron rather than directly invading as an enemy on the first day and that the colonial power be a Spain that keeps the Netherlands and Portugal to have the men and ships for this endeavor.

Second, why are you using 1815? I never once suggested that date. Sengoku is the better period due to all the Balkanization of the time.
 
Be that as it may, Japan still produced excellent troops that would be of great use in a power's foreign wars as mercenary units or security.

That's for a country to decide not me. I can only give suggestions as to why. Initially I suggested the use of opening up markets for their goods or via protection of Christians in the country.

Which is precisely why I chose the idea to be invited in as a patron rather than directly invading as an enemy on the first day and that the colonial power be a Spain that keeps the Netherlands and Portugal to have the men and ships for this endeavor.

Second, why are you using 1815? I never once suggested that date. Sengoku is the better period due to all the Balkanization of the time.

If you look at the OP it is post 1815.
 
Heres on I don't think I've seen.

What about a Russia that modernizes better and earlier, but yet still looses the Crimear so becomes focused on the East as OTL.
Add in a failed meji-failed state Japan and it becomes a host of Warm Water Ports :)
 
Edit:

It was Glen's Dominion of Southern America

There he has Japan split between two Factions: Imperial Japan to the south (backed by the British) and Tokugawa Shogunate in the North ( sided with Russia )
 
Last edited:
Top