AHC: Hitlerless Germany and war with Poland

I read a claim by someone once on these forums that said something to the effect that had a moderate come to power during the rise of the Nazis, or in fact none had come to power at all, that it was probable Germany would have eventually gone to war with Poland.

With a POD coinciding with the rise and fall of the Nazis, can you make Germany, whether it has gone Nazi or not, annex all of or the majority of Poland.
 
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War with Poland is very possible. Them had disputes with Danzig and parts of Slesia. But I don't see Germany to annex most of Poland without Hitler or someone else another expansionist leader. And when there not be Hitler war without France and UK is plausible. In OTL France and UK guaranted independent of Poland after occupation of Czechoslovakia.
 
Germany goes communist along similar lines to the USSR, so that means slightly expansionist.

Anyway it rearms, builds up it's industry again, and then eventually, while allied to the USSR, invades and partitions poland. The parts Germany keeps are made some german communist equivalent of a SSR or ASSR.
I think that covers it?
 

Deleted member 1487

I read a claim by someone once on these forums that said something to the effect that had a moderate come to power during the rise of the Nazis, or in fact none had come to power at all, that it was probable Germany would have eventually gone to war with Poland.

With a POD coinciding with the rise and fall of the Nazis, can you make Germany, whether it has gone Nazi or not, annex all of or the majority of Poland without drawing in France, Britain, or Russia?
Basically the conservative clique in power in Germany that ended up putting Hitler in power once they couldn't agree who would be in charge among themselves (Hitler being the compromise candidate they thought they could control) wanted war with Poland, being Prussians with a particular viewpoint about the Eastern border. So if they somehow remained in charge, say actually getting the Strasser brothers to split from the Nazis and provoking a purge of Hitler from the system then you'd get a militarist regime in power; the thing is Poland knew what was up and was threatening an invasion if someone like von Schleicher got into power. Schleicher was the guy trying to break off the Strassers. So if he gets into power its very possible Poland goes for the military solution to their German problem before the Germans get too strong. Not sure if France would join or could afford to, but Poland was scared.

So just by getting someone like von Schleicher in power in 1933 might well mean war with Poland, initiated by Poland in 1933.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German–Polish_Non-Aggression_Pact
One of the most widely remarked-on of Józef Piłsudski's foreign-policy moves was his rumored proposal to France to declare war on Germany after Hitler had come to power in January 1933. Some historians write that Piłsudski may have sounded out France regarding the possibility of joint military action against Germany, which had been openly rearming in violation of the Versailles Treaty.

Józef Piłsudski used Adolf Hitler's rise to power and international isolation of Germany's new regime as an opportunity to reduce the risk that Poland would become the first victim of German aggression or of a Great Power deal (especially the Four Power Pact). Germany's new rulers seemed to depart from the traditionally Prussian anti-Polish orientation. Piłsudski regarded the new chancellor as less dangerous than his immediate predecessors, going back to Gustav Stresemann, and saw the Soviet Union as the greater threat, to the point where he opposed French and Czechoslovak efforts to include the Soviet Union in a common front against Nazi Germany.

Talking about invading Germany with Hitler in charge, yet viewing him as less dangerous than the previous German conservatives indicates Poland was not happy with potentially having to deal with a former German general as Chancellor, so I don't think it would be beyond Pilsudski to head off a growing military threat by force if he felt threatened enough; of course Schleicher would have been exactly that worst fear. Now the question is whether Poland would have any support for that war and what the role of the SA, various militias/police, and the Reichswehr would be. Schleicher had a deal with Rohm of the SA that the SA would fall under Reichswehr command if a war started, so potentially Poland wouldn't have had an easy war if they invaded in 1933 and may well isolate themselves internationally in the process. However I don't see them sitting idly by as Germany rearms in the 1930s as they did with Hitler, nor signing a non-aggression pact.
 
Most essays and story story, i read about Hitlerless Germany.
Were scenario with Communist Germany and Soviet Union and Poland is partitioned under communist.

But i believe that kingdom Germany with strong anti communist government, would be consider by Poland as strong ally against USSR.
Even willing to give Danzig and parts of Slesia to German Kingdom, in exchange for Defense pact and free access to the Baltic Sea.
 
Germany goes communist along similar lines to the USSR, so that means slightly expansionist.

Anyway it rearms, builds up it's industry again, and then eventually, while allied to the USSR, invades and partitions poland. The parts Germany keeps are made some german communist equivalent of a SSR or ASSR.
I think that covers it?
Yes, a Stalinist-like Germany. Interesting choice.

Interesting how the Poles and Stalin both had a particular image of Hitler.
 
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Deleted member 1487

Yes, a Stalinist-like Germany. Interesting choice.

Cannot happen though, the German people were not revolutionary or left leaning enough to make is supportable; look at the history of the Bavarian Soviet Republic and why the Spartikist revolt failed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bavarian_Soviet_Republic
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spartacist_uprising
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Revolution_of_1918–19
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_Party_of_Germany#Early_history
Under the leadership of Liebknecht and Luxemburg, the KPD was committed to a violent revolution in Germany, and during 1919 and 1920 attempts to seize control of the government continued. Germany's Social Democratic government, which had come to power after the fall of the Monarchy, was vehemently opposed to the KPD's idea of socialism. With the new regime terrified of a Bolshevik Revolution in Germany, Defense Minister Gustav Noske formed a series of anti-communist paramilitary groups, dubbed "Freikorps", out of demobilized World War I veterans. During the failed so-called Spartacist uprising in Berlin of January 1919, Liebknecht and Luxemburg, who had not initiated the uprising but joined once it had begun, were captured by the Freikorps and murdered. The Party split a few months later into two factions, the KPD and the Communist Workers Party of Germany (KAPD).

Following the assassination of Leo Jogiches, Paul Levi became the KPD leader. Other prominent members included Clara Zetkin, Paul Frölich, Hugo Eberlein, Franz Mehring, August Thalheimer, and Ernst Meyer. Levi led the party away from the policy of immediate revolution, in an effort to win over SPD and USPD voters and trade union officials. These efforts were rewarded when a substantial section of the USPD joined the KPD, making it a mass party for the first time.

Through the 1920s the KPD was racked by internal conflict between more and less radical factions, partly reflecting the power struggles between Zinoviev and Stalin in Moscow. Germany was seen as being of central importance to the struggle for socialism, and the failure of the German revolution was a major setback. Eventually Levi was expelled in 1921 by the Comintern for "indiscipline." Further leadership changes took place in the 1920s. Supporters of the Left or Right Opposition to the Stalin-controlled Comintern leadership were expelled; of these, Heinrich Brandler, August Thalheimer and Paul Frölich set up a splinter Communist Party Opposition.
 
Britain's support was the last factor, and due to Britain wanting a tripwire, a line in the sand. If anything happens before 1939 - and by that I mean not just before a given date, but before the long sequence of events that demonstrated to the British decision makers that Germany must be curbed at all costs, again - you have no British involvement. Ideally, skip the Czech business altogether, and keep to Versailles wrt the Kriegsmarine. The British will say about Poland that it's a distant place they don't really know about.

The French are Poland's allies. To work around this, the neatest solution is to have Poland declare war on a pre-Hitlerite Germany. In this way, it's not a defensive war and France can avoid involvement, and on top of that, if it's before Hitler then Germany is not perceived as a dangerous rabid dog, yet.
Naturally it's unlikely that the Poles are so stupid, but you could have a chain of unfortunate events, possibly just after Pilsudski bows out of the scene. His successors don't feel solidly in the saddle yet, and, let's face it, they are far from being as clever as the old man. Something terrible happens in Danzig. The Polish decision makers decide that they will seize the opportunity to focus the Poles' attention on the external enemy and do something rash there. Local German forces in East Prussia react, possibly after a misunderstanding with their superiors. In a pique, the Poles declare war, thinking that the Germans are not ready and that it will be a limited, low-intensity thing.
The French stay out.

The Soviet Union is also unlikely to get involved, unless they get an agreement with either side. Stalin was too cautious at this time.
 

Deleted member 1487

keep to Versailles wrt the Kriegsmarine.
Minor nitpick: the British helped the Germans end Versailles navally by signing the Anglo-German naval accord in 1935 specifically to buddy up to Hitler; Hitler stuck to it until Britain made its guarantee to Poland in 1939:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-German_Naval_Agreement
Even then the British didn't think the Germans would be a naval threat until 1942-43.

Without Hitler Britain might well still go for such a deal because they were not nearly as friendly with France or its alliance system and wanted Germany as their proxy on the continent; the Prussians would probably be more open to working with Britain, though I don't know if the British would be as accepting of Germany led by the Prussians. IOTL they were willing to let Hitler move south and less willing to see Germany deal with Poland; I don't know if the British could ever let the Germans move East under any government unless Poland started it.

The Soviet Union is also unlikely to get involved, unless they get an agreement with either side. Stalin was too cautious at this time.

The Soviets weren't ready for war and had a non-aggression pact with Poland, which they were pretty good about honoring.
 
Minor nitpick: the British helped the Germans end Versailles navally by signing the Anglo-German naval accord in 1935 specifically to buddy up to Hitler;

The fact that the British were willing to allow for more than the frankly ridiculous Versailles forces does not mean that Germany actually wanting this agreement in the first place, and then beginning their construction programs did not raise the level of attention one notch. If Germany just stays with an insignificant navy, the British are positively happy.

Note that the earlier this takes place - possibly even before Hitler, even though that means the after-Pilsudki situation in Poland is not an available ignition - the easier is for Germany not to have come to the conclusion that they do want a real navy again.

The Soviets weren't ready for war and had a non-aggression pact with Poland, which they were pretty good about honoring.

All of which is true but pretty much synonymous with Stalin's cautiousness.
 
Britain's support was the last factor, and due to Britain wanting a tripwire, a line in the sand. If anything happens before 1939 - and by that I mean not just before a given date, but before the long sequence of events that demonstrated to the British decision makers that Germany must be curbed at all costs, again - you have no British involvement. Ideally, skip the Czech business altogether, and keep to Versailles wrt the Kriegsmarine. The British will say about Poland that it's a distant place they don't really know about.

The French are Poland's allies. To work around this, the neatest solution is to have Poland declare war on a pre-Hitlerite Germany. In this way, it's not a defensive war and France can avoid involvement, and on top of that, if it's before Hitler then Germany is not perceived as a dangerous rabid dog, yet.
Naturally it's unlikely that the Poles are so stupid, but you could have a chain of unfortunate events, possibly just after Pilsudski bows out of the scene. His successors don't feel solidly in the saddle yet, and, let's face it, they are far from being as clever as the old man. Something terrible happens in Danzig. The Polish decision makers decide that they will seize the opportunity to focus the Poles' attention on the external enemy and do something rash there. Local German forces in East Prussia react, possibly after a misunderstanding with their superiors. In a pique, the Poles declare war, thinking that the Germans are not ready and that it will be a limited, low-intensity thing.
The French stay out.

The Soviet Union is also unlikely to get involved, unless they get an agreement with either side. Stalin was too cautious at this time.

The thing is, the Polish guarantee was fairly contingent. When it was made, there was a lot of pressure on Chamberlain to do something to show he was serious about the Nazi menace, but there wasn't a lot of pressure on him to guarantee Poland specifically. In fact, if I recall the British foreign policy establishment was dubious about guaranteeing Poland because Poland was a bit of a rogue state with sleazy leadership that had just attacked Czechoslovakia along with Germany, because Britain couldn't actually do anything to help Poland without Soviet help, and because the Poles were being very uncooperative about the Soviets but offering them the guarantee removed the one pressure point Whitehall had to force the Poles to cooperate with the Soviets.

So after Hitler's takeover of Prague, it is inevitable that there is going to be some kind of vigorous, harder-line British response, but I don't think a Polish guarantee is inevitable at all.
 
The French are Poland's allies. To work around this, the neatest solution is to have Poland declare war on a pre-Hitlerite Germany. In this way, it's not a defensive war and France can avoid involvement, and on top of that, if it's before Hitler then Germany is not perceived as a dangerous rabid dog, yet.
Naturally it's unlikely that the Poles are so stupid, but you could have a chain of unfortunate events, possibly just after Pilsudski bows out of the scene. His successors don't feel solidly in the saddle yet, and, let's face it, they are far from being as clever as the old man. Something terrible happens in Danzig. The Polish decision makers decide that they will seize the opportunity to focus the Poles' attention on the external enemy and do something rash there. Local German forces in East Prussia react, possibly after a misunderstanding with their superiors. In a pique, the Poles declare war, thinking that the Germans are not ready and that it will be a limited, low-intensity thing.
The French stay out.

There's also another way of "working around this". France found it refreshingly easy to betray allies in OTL, after all.

The Soviet Union is also unlikely to get involved, unless they get an agreement with either side. Stalin was too cautious at this time.

Keeping Stalin out is actually the big problem here. He would really really want his piece of Poland, and even Hitler let him have it in our timeline. Stalin was not reckless, but I think that his caution is often overrated.
 

Deleted member 1487

The fact that the British were willing to allow for more than the frankly ridiculous Versailles forces does not mean that Germany actually wanting this agreement in the first place, and then beginning their construction programs did not raise the level of attention one notch. If Germany just stays with an insignificant navy, the British are positively happy.

Note that the earlier this takes place - possibly even before Hitler, even though that means the after-Pilsudki situation in Poland is not an available ignition - the easier is for Germany not to have come to the conclusion that they do want a real navy again.
After WW1 no sane German leadership wanted another surface fleet worthy of the name; Hitler though of course became less rational the closer he got to 1939, so that's when the Plan-Z fleet plan started construction.

Keeping Stalin out is actually the big problem here. He would really really want his piece of Poland, and even Hitler let him have it in our timeline. Stalin was not reckless, but I think that his caution is often overrated.
If there is a war, he would probably reach out to the Germans, as until Hitler the Reichswehr and Soviets had a decent relationship. Without Hitler that continues in some fashion, though reduced as the Lipetsk deal was coming to a close no matter what; trade would still be on the table. Actually a big problem in Anglo-German relations ITTL might be German-Soviet relations; IOTL the Brits were so happy to deal with Hitler because he was anti-Soviet and had Stalin's hate as proof of that. They wanted a strong continental ally as a counter to Stalin, who they were worried was restarting the great game in Central Asia.
 
So after Hitler's takeover of Prague, it is inevitable that there is going to be some kind of vigorous, harder-line British response, but I don't think a Polish guarantee is inevitable at all.

You are right as to the general premise, and indeed a less well known fact is that a guarantee was offered to Romania too. Britain would be doing something.

We'll disagree on the inevitability, though. The next target of the expansionist mad loose cannon was the obvious and yes, inevitable choice. Who the next target was going to be was, if not obvious, then pretty easy to guess.
 

Realpolitik

Banned
Oh, hell yes. Most Weimar era Germans-and most of the General Staff-were racist about Poles far moreso than Jews. Very plausible as time keeps going on and Germany gets stronger, especially if the non-Hitler government keeps on good terms with another country that hated the idea of a Poland, the Soviet Union.

Any German military junta-the likeliest candidate to take over Germany in 1932 without Hitler, Weimar was already de facto dead. The only question at this point was who was going to be the dictator-will see Poland, not Russia as the main enemy, not just because they are Poles, but also because they see them as a proxy of the French. And this was the whole political spectrum, not just a right wing thing. The German Communists hated Poland. And the Left as a whole, while more moderate, will not be looking for ties with Warsaw, but with Moscow.

This doesn't mean a war is inevitable, persay, but its definitely possible. If they invade, they will be sure to have Stalin "bought off" at the very least, which won't be that difficult. France and Britain are a different matter. The key is to either wait long enough so that they decide its not worth a war with Germany and in the interim period behave well enough so that they won't get involved, or make it so that Poland looks like the aggressor. The first one is far more likely-Warsaw isn't stupid enough to attack Berlin first.
 
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The one of the reasons Gustav Stresemann saw Germany enter the League of Nations was so that they could negotiate the German reclamation of Danzig and a peaceful 'closing' of the Polish Corridor
 
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