Stresa Revived - an Allied Mussolini TL

Chapter I: The Italo-Ethiopian War and the Hoare-Laval Pact, 1934-1935.
This is an improved version of a TL I did a while back. I hope everyone likes it:D.


Stresa Revived


Chapter I: The Italo-Ethiopian War and the Hoare-Laval Pact, 1934-1935.
In 1934, Italian leader Mussolini had set his sights on Abyssinia because he wanted to avenge Italy’s humiliating defeat of 1896. Besides that, he wanted to give Italy its coveted place under the sun, which, he figured, would be achieved by creating an Italian colony that dominated the Horn of Africa. The Italo-Ethiopian Treaty of 1928 stated that the border between Italian Somaliland and Ethiopia was twenty-one leagues or roughly 118 kilometres parallel to the Benadir coast. In 1930, Italy built a fort at the Welwel oasis in the Ogaden and garrisoned it with Somali Ascaris, which were irregular frontier troops commanded by Italian officers. The fort at Welwel was well beyond the twenty-one league limit and the Italians were encroaching on Abyssinian territory. In November 1934, Ethiopian territorial troops, escorting the Anglo-Ethiopian boundary commission, protested against Italy’s incursion. The British members of the commission soon withdrew to avoid embarrassing Italy. Italian and Ethiopian troops remained encamped in close proximity.

In December 1934 a border incident took place at Welwel that killed 150 Ethiopians and two Italians. The League of Nations exonerated both parties and neither France nor Britain took strong steps against Italy, keen to keep it as an ally against a resurgent Germany. Italy was able to launch its invasion without interference primarily due to the United Kingdom and France placing a high priority on retaining Italy as an ally in case hostilities broke out with Germany. To this end, on January 7th 1935, France signed an agreement with Italy, giving them essentially a free hand in Africa to secure Italian co-operation.

Next, in April, Italy was further emboldened by being a member of the Stresa Front. The Stresa Front was an agreement made in Stresa, a town on the banks of Lake Maggiore in Italy, between French Prime Minister Pierre Laval, British Prime Minister Ramsay MacDonald, and Italian Prime Minister Benito Mussolini on April 14th 1935. Formally called the “Final Declaration of the Stresa Conference”, its aim was to reaffirm the Locarno Treaties and to declare that the independence of Austria “would continue to inspire their common policy”. The signatories also agreed to resist any future attempt by the Germans to change the Treaty of Versailles. In June, non-interference was further assured by a political rift that had developed between the United Kingdom and France following the Anglo-German Naval Agreement.

In October 1935, the Italian invasion finally commenced under the over-all command of General Emilio de Bono, Commander-in-Chief of all Italian armed forces in East Africa. Italian troops were firstly confronted with tough logistics because their roads built up to the border, turned into vague paths on the other side of it. Nonetheless, by October 6th, the Italian II Corps took Adwa, the site of Italy’s ignominious 1896 defeat, without encountering serious opposition. On October 11th, Dejazmach Haile Selassie Gugsa and 1.200 of his followers surrendered to the commander of the Italian outpost at Adagamos. De Bono notified Rome and the Ministry of Information promptly exaggerated the importance of the surrender. Haile Selassie Gugsa was Emperor Haile Selassie’s son-in-law, but less than a tenth of the Dejazmach's army actually defected with him. A few days later, the Italians bloodlessly occupied the ancient holy capital of Axum, but Mussolini nonetheless replaced De Bono because his methodical advance was too slow for the tastes of “Il Duce”.

His replacement was Marshal Pietro Badoglio. Haile Selassie decided to test this new Italian commander with an offensive of his own. What became known as the Ethiopian “Christmas Offensive” had as its objectives the splitting of the Italian forces in the north with the Ethiopian centre, crushing the Italian left with the Ethiopian right and invading Eritrea with the Ethiopian left. The Italians were initially pushed back, but their superiority in modern weapons, such as machine guns, aircraft and artillery, stopped the Ethiopian offensive.

In early December 1935, the Hoare–Laval Pact was proposed by British Foreign Secretary Samuel Hoare and French Prime Minister Pierre Laval. Under this pact, Italy would gain the best parts of Ogaden and Tigray. Italy would also gain economic influence over the entire southern part of Abyssinia. Abyssinia would have a guaranteed corridor to the sea at the port of Assab, which the exiled Haile Selassie would later call a “corridor for camels”. Mussolini took a few days to contemplate this proposal and then sent a telegram to his ambassador in London, Dino Grandi, that he accepted it.

The agreement was formalized a few days later, after which Italy communicated its provisions as its own peace terms. Sanctimoniously, the Italians expressed their regret that they wouldn’t be able to crush the institution of slavery in all of Ethiopia, which had never been a priority at all. Thereafter, an Italian-French-British bloc presented it to the League of Nations as a compromise to the conflict and the latter showed its weakness by accepting it. The League thereby legitimized the invasion of one sovereign nation by another and also de facto legalized unprovoked military aggression in general (a lesson Japan and Germany both remembered), discrediting the international body to the point of uselessness. Upon the leaking of the Hoare-Laval Pact in 1936, which had been negotiated without the involvement of the League of Nations, Foreign Secretary Samuel Hoare was forced to resign because of the resulting scandal. Moreover, Anglo-French public opinion vis-à-vis Italy was very negative, forcing its democratically elected politicians to put relations with Rome on the backburner, much to Mussolini’s dismay.

Given the nigh complete absence of international support, a palace coup deposed Haile Selassie, who wanted to fight on until the end. His 19 year-old son Amha Selassie became the new (puppet) Emperor and was forced to sign over Tigray and Ogaden. The rest of the country became a de facto Italian protectorate as Amha Selassie was forced to sign commercial treaties that gave Italian companies access to Ethiopia’s mineral wealth, while a Consul-General took up residence in Addis Ababa as an “advisor to his Imperial majesty’s government” and as a “protector of Italian minority rights in Ethiopia”. The irony was that the Italian community in Ethiopia would never number more than 2% of the population, while at the same time dominating much of the economy of a nominally sovereign, independent country. Ethiopia’s protectorate status couldn’t be exemplified more by its acceptance of King Victor Emmanuel III’s new title of “Lord Protector of Abyssinia”, a mere few hours after the Italian government had granted it to him. If Mussolini thought that the Stresa Front was a solid anti-German power bloc, however, he was mistaken.
 
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Since I'm one who pointed out what I considered flaws in your previous version, I do hope you have all of your ducks in line this time. Let's wait and see without any prejudice.

Incidentally, slavery was abolished by Italy in Ethiopia. It was not just a few slaves: it has been estimated that there were 2 million slaves out of a population of 8 million (the Coptic church was one of the great, and probably the greatest, slave owner).
I would have assumed that the peace treaty would include provisions for an immediate abolition of slavery: besides any moral consideration, it would have made a good propaganda move
 
I dunno if Mussolini would fit the mold of the Western Allies, I look to see how this pans out...though given my expectations of the guy...can't wait to see how he screws up this time.
 
I dunno if Mussolini would fit the mold of the Western Allies, I look to see how this pans out...though given my expectations of the guy...can't wait to see how he screws up this time.

Well the problem is that being part of the allies resolve a lot of italian problems overnight.
Not being cut off from supplies like oil and fighing the war that the italian army has been trained and equipped to do (Defense on the alps).
Not counting the absence of sanctions and a shorter war on Abyssinia will help the italian economy in general (as making rump Ethiopia a protectorate...so no costly post-war pacification). Ironically this mean that fascistization of the society as envisioned by Benny will be slowed a lot as OTL used the internal outrage for the sanction to press for his program.

Naturally this mean that the war will start as OTL, a continuing stresa front mean that Adolf will have a much harder life, expecially with the Anshluss and even if things goes as OTL, needing to face a possible italian hostility he will be forced to put some force at the italian border...making the invasion of France more difficult.
 
Well the problem is that being part of the allies resolve a lot of italian problems overnight.
Not being cut off from supplies like oil and fighing the war that the italian army has been trained and equipped to do (Defense on the alps).
Not counting the absence of sanctions and a shorter war on Abyssinia will help the italian economy in general (as making rump Ethiopia a protectorate...so no costly post-war pacification). Ironically this mean that fascistization of the society as envisioned by Benny will be slowed a lot as OTL used the internal outrage for the sanction to press for his program.

Naturally this mean that the war will start as OTL, a continuing stresa front mean that Adolf will have a much harder life, expecially with the Anshluss and even if things goes as OTL, needing to face a possible italian hostility he will be forced to put some force at the italian border...making the invasion of France more difficult.

given mussolinis opposistion to the first attempt by Hitler to take austria and the fact that Benito has not been pushed into accepting an alliance with Adolf would there be an Anshluss? Italy might mobilise against it again, if they felt Britain and France would back them up. War might start over Austria if Hitler persisted.
If britain and France did not back Italy over austria could stresa survive?
 
given mussolinis opposistion to the first attempt by Hitler to take austria and the fact that Benito has not been pushed into accepting an alliance with Adolf would there be an Anshluss? Italy might mobilise against it again, if they felt Britain and France would back them up. War might start over Austria if Hitler persisted.

This is true, and quite probable actually. However, my bet is the author wants to take this in another direction (which is also possible mind you) - i.e. have an actual war develop in '39 or '40
 
I don't think there would be a war over Austria even if Italy will be against the Anchluss TTL. Even if OTL Benny gave Adolf the green light, and the prelude was the forced ascension of Seyss-Inquart to the Austrian chancellorate, followed by the German invasion, in the end with the plebiscite the nazis proved the will of the Austrians to join the Reich - a position quite hard to contest diplomatically.

Sure, if Schuschnigg OTL due to the preservation of the Stresa front will not cove down hoping for an Italian intervention... but the last lines of the opening post make me doubt over the fact France and Britain TTL will start a European war (not necessarily has to be yet a WWII yet - considering the war in Africa for now is butterflied)...

Besides, I always wondered if the Austrians would like to be aided by the Italians in case of German invasion... I doubt in case of Allied victory they will be elated to become puppet of Rome or to very least to stay under strong Italian influence... but let's wait and see.

Naturally, I am on.
 
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The problem with a surviving Stresa pact is that UK is on a path of appeasement with Germany and France is troubled by government instability.
It is clearly in Mussolini's interest to avoid an Anschluss but opposing Germany on his own might be a bridge too far. OTOH it is not impossible that if Italy once more mobilizes at the border Hitler might blink.
 
The problem with a surviving Stresa pact is that UK is on a path of appeasement with Germany and France is troubled by government instability.
It is clearly in Mussolini's interest to avoid an Anschluss but opposing Germany on his own might be a bridge too far. OTOH it is not impossible that if Italy once more mobilizes at the border Hitler might blink.

Maybe France would support Italy by mobilizing as well - nothing better of an impeding war - and towards Germany - to coalesce the French national unity and calm down waters at home; even better if Hitler didn't see the bluff and folds.
 
Chapter II: Italy’s Road to War, 1935-1940.
Update time. I hope you like it :D.



Chapter II: Italy’s Road to War, 1935-1940.
The first issue that demonstrated how loose relations between the signatories of the so-called Stresa Front actually were, was the remilitarization of the Rhineland in 1936. In reality only 3.000 German Wehrmacht soldiers entered the Rhineland, but French intelligence had come up with the number of 295.000 by counting SS, SA and Landespolizei (State Police) units as well. General Maurice Gamelin told the government a full scale mobilization would be needed, which would be unpopular while also costing 30 million francs a day. 1936 was an election year and the government didn’t want to alienate their constituents by means of a war against Germany, which seemed to be merely asserting its sovereignty. Moreover, it didn’t want to aggravate its economic woes: the country was gripped with financial crisis as there were insufficient reserves to maintain the value of the franc as pegged to the gold standard in regard to the US dollar and the British pound sterling. Huge loans would be needed to stabilize the situation, while a war needed to be avoided to destabilize it and cause a disastrous downfall.

Serious overestimation of German military prowess, electoral concerns and a weak economy ensured a tame French response. The British response was blasé, as exemplified by Lord Lothian’s famous statement that the Germans were merely walking into their own backyard. Mussolini was irritated that Germany wasn’t being kept to the Treaty of Versailles and he expressed his annoyance about the worthlessness of agreements with the Western democratic powers to British ambassador Eric Drummond. Drummond could only apologize sheepishly, feel ashamed for his country’s lacklustre attitude and subsequently watch Italy drift away from the Anglo-French Entente. As a result, Italy supported the Nationalist forces in the Spanish Civil War with 50.000 troops, the so-called Corpo Truppe Volontarie (CTV) or Corps of Volunteer Troops (these veterans would prove effective in WW II). Britain and France assumed a slightly more favourable tone toward Franco, but it did little to fix their relations with Italy.

In the meantime, Hitler was emboldened. The notion of uniting all German-speaking peoples into one nation state had been around since the 19th century, but at the time the “Kleindeutsch” (small German) solution won out, excluding Austria from Germany. More than fifty years after the Austro-Prussian War of 1866, after the end of World War I and the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Austrian elite and popular opinion favoured some kind of union with Germany. The 1919 Paris peace treaties, however, explicitly forbade that, ignoring the Wilsonian principle of self-determination due to fear of a German resurgence. Nonetheless, both the Weimar Republic and Austria included the political goal of unification into their respective constitutions, with massive support from democratic parties.
In the early 1930s, popular support in Austria for a union with Germany remained overwhelming, and the Austrian government looked to a possible customs union with the German Republic in 1931.

In 1933, Adolf Hitler, an Austrian German by birth, became Chancellor of Germany and one of his goals and of his Nazis was to reunite all Germans either born or living outside of the Reich into an “all-German Reich.” There were economic interests as well: it supplied Germany with magnesium and the products of the iron, textile and machine industries; it also had gold and foreign currency reserves; lastly, it had many unemployed skilled workers, hundreds of idle factories and large potential hydroelectric resources. Austria, however, devolved into an authoritarian, clerico-fascist, corporatist regime that looked to Italy for support, which they got when in 1934 Austrian Nazis attempted a coup d’état that led to the death of Austrian Chancellor Engelbert Dollfuss. Italian sabre rattling was enough to make Hitler back down in 1934, which was no surprise since he didn’t have an army at the time. However, Nazi terrorist attacks continued until 1938 and killed roughly 450 people, despite the fact that Austrian Nazi leaders remained imprisoned and that the Nazis were harshly suppressed, leaving the movement disorganized and feeble.

Mussolini supported Dollfuss’s successor Kurt Schuschnigg. But by 1936 the damage to Austria’s economy caused by the German boycott was too great and Schuschnigg informed Mussolini that he had to come to an agreement with Germany. Schuschnigg first agreed to release Nazi prisoners and later met Hitler in February 1938, acquiescing to his demands for Nazi appointees to the Austrian government. In March 1938, in an attempt to preserve Austria’s independence, Schuschnigg announced a referendum, but the plan backfired when it became clear that Hitler wouldn’t simply stand by as Austria reaffirmed its independence by public vote. Schuschnigg pleaded his case with Mussolini in a series of telegrams between Vienna and Rome, but the latter informed the Austrians that he wouldn’t fight Germany without the support of France and/or the United Kingdom. As a result, the Austrian Chancellor caved before threats of violence and Hitler, triumphantly and without opposition, marched into his birth country with his triumphal tour climaxing in Vienna. By April 1938, Hitler’s 49th birthday, the Führer reached the zenith of his popularity.

However, the so-called Anschluss would also have serious international ramifications. Mussolini, who was wary of Nazi Germany, wanted some kind of buffer area. Therefore, within three hours of the Wehrmacht marching into Austria, the Regio Esercito moved to occupy strategic locations just across the border. They enacted the contingency plan that had been created on Mussolini’s specific orders the moment that Hitler started to make noise about Austria in February 1938. Rome legitimized these snippets of Austrian territory under Italian occupation as the remainder of the Federal State of Austria, which had been illegally occupied by Germany. Kurt Schuschnigg was allowed to set up a government-in-exile in Italy and an “Austrian Division” was created in the Italian army composed of Austrian soldiers that had withdrawn into northern Italy. Hitler was predictably infuriated, but fighting Italy was quite a bit different than invading a country which had an army of only 30.000 men, which was completely passive to boot. The German ambassador was summoned to meet a similarly furious Duce, who blatantly bluffed that any move to stop him would result in war.

A delusional Hitler still hoped to sweeten the deal and mend relations by officially denouncing any claims on South Tyrol. He stated that “the fate of the South Tyrol Volksdeutsche lies outside Italy” and proposed an emigration scheme. Mussolini shrugged, declined requests to have an audience with Hitler in Rome, and he refused to see German Foreign Minister Von Ribbentrop when he was in Rome to also visit the Holy See.

More importantly, Mussolini was irate about the attitude of his supposed Anglo-French allies, who demonstrated their complacency by aggrandizing a German territorial demand that contravened the stipulations of Versailles, further emboldening Hitler. Furthermore, the attitude of London and Paris toward the Austrian government-in-exile was wishy-washy: they didn’t recognise the Anschluss, but neither did they recognise Schuschnigg as the legitimate leader of Austria. Mussolini had an idea of what the Wehrmacht was capable of and he wasn’t confident enough to wage war against Germany by his lonesome. Therefore he expressed his bitter disappointment to the ambassadors of Britain and France concerning their countries’ attitude in this crisis. Chamberlain’s appeasement policy was condemned in the press organs of the fascist regime, including an article written by Mussolini’s sharp pen in party newspaper “Il Popolo d’Italia” under a pseudonym that concluded that: “this Anglo-French policy of appeasement will only allow Nazi Germany to become stronger as well as bolder as its leaders see complacency, weakness, fear and dividedness among its bourgeois opponents. That will inevitably undermine the entire effort our countries have gone through to form a cordon around our common rival because distrust is irrevocably sewn if one ally ignores the interests of the other.” Though the article was signed by one Alessandro Maltoni (his father’s first name coupled with his mother’s maiden name), everybody knew who had actually written it and both Chamberlain and Daladier now knew how Mussolini thought of them. Relations between Britain and France on one hand and Italy on the other reached an all-time low and the Stresa Front very nearly was a dead letter. Future Prime Minister Winston Churchill later agreed with Mussolini that this had been the opportune moment to nip Nazi German expansionism in the bud.

Immediately after the Anschluss, Hitler made himself the advocate of ethnic Germans living in Czechoslovakia while Sudeten Nazis led by Konrad Henlein agitated for autonomy. British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain met Adolf Hitler at his chalet in the Bavarian Alps at Berchtesgaden, the Berghof, on September 15th and agreed to the cession of the Sudetenland; three days later, French Prime Minister Édouard Daladier did the same. No Czechoslovak representative was invited to these discussions. Chamberlain met Hitler again in Godesberg on September 22nd to confirm the agreements. Hitler, aiming to use the crisis as a pretext for war, now demanded not only the annexation of the Sudetenland but the immediate military occupation of the territories, giving the Czechoslovak army no time to adapt their defence measures to the new borders.

Now, France and Britain turned to Rome, but Mussolini wasn’t convinced of Anglo-French resolve and he merely proposed a four power conference. He wanted to conserve the fragile peace and give Italy more time to prepare for war. Mussolini’s arbitration staved off war because Hitler greatly admired the Duce, even though the two countries weren’t on a good footing due to the Anschluss (Hitler had been idolatrous of the Italian leader ever since his March on Rome in 1922, which the former had unsuccessfully tried to imitate with his failed coup of November 1923; the feeling wasn’t mutual, with Mussolini only feeling contempt toward Hitler and referring to Nazi Germany as a “racist nuthouse”). The Munich Conference peacefully transferred the Sudetenland to Germany in October 1938 and Hitler stated that it would be his last territorial claim, but in March 1939 he betrayed everyone’s trust by invading and annexing Bohemia-Moravia and setting up Slovakia as a puppet state.

Alarmed, and with Hitler making further demands on the Free City of Danzig, France and Britain guaranteed their support for Polish independence, a guarantee that wasn’t given by the Italian government because at this point the Duce was just as convinced as the Führer that the democratic leaders of Britain and France were too spineless to go to war. Hitler accused Britain and Poland of trying to “encircle” Germany and renounced the 1935 Anglo-German Naval Agreement as well as the German-Polish Non-Aggression Pact of 1934. In August 1939, Germany and the Soviet Union signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, a non-aggression treaty with a secret protocol in which they agreed to partition Poland. The agreement was crucial to Hitler because it assured that Germany would not have to face the prospect of a two-front war, as it had in World War I, after it defeated Poland. He did not believe Britain, France or Italy would intervene in the conflict, but in two out three cases he was wrong: Britain and France both declared war, while Italy stayed aloof. The British and the French, however, did nothing to save the Poles, which did little to encourage the Italians to come to their aid. It looked like Italy would sit this one out.

The morning after the so-called Gleiwitz incident, a meagre attempt to make Germany look like the victim of Polish aggression, German forces invaded Poland from the north, south, and west. As the Germans advanced, Polish forces withdrew from their forward bases of operation close to the Polish-German border to more established lines of defence to the east. After the mid-September Polish defeat in the Battle of the Bzura, the Germans gained an undisputed advantage. Polish forces then withdrew to the southeast where they prepared for a long defence of the Romanian Bridgehead and awaited expected support and relief from their Anglo-French allies. The Soviet invasion of September 17th rendered Polish plans obsolete and the government ordered an evacuation to neutral Romania (~ 100.000 Polish military personnel reached Romania and the Baltic States and most of these fought against the Germans in other theatres of the war). On October 6th, following the Polish defeat at the Battle of Kock, German and Soviet forces gained full control over Poland. The success of the invasion marked the end of the Second Polish Republic, though Poland never formally surrendered.

After September 1939, Paris and London tried to get Rome to join the war and the latter demanded guarantees for the fair treatment of the Italian minority in Tunisia, an Italian say in the affairs of the Suez Canal, recognition of the annexation of Albania, and the establishment of Djibouti as a jointly administered free port. The Italian community in French Tunisia would have the same legal status as the French there, and Britain and France were willing to give Italy a share in the Suez Canal (though not big enough to threaten their position). Albania was unimportant enough for Britain and France to recognize its annexation by Italy as well. France was unwilling to give up Djibouti, but they exempted Italy from import duties. Italian core goals had been met, but the opportunistic Mussolini wasn’t shy to get more if he could. Among other things, France and Britain agreed that Italian territorial claims vis-à-vis Yugoslavia and even Greece were open to negotiation (not a minute later Mussolini bullied the Greeks into giving the Regia Marina basing rights in the Aegean Sea, and without British support the Greeks had no choice but to give in). However, Mussolini knew his people would need a better reason to fight than mere territorial gains and Germany would provide one.

German U-boat U-26 was the first German submarine to slip into the Mediterranean Sea and in the night of Tuesday March 26th 1940 it spotted a roughly 22.000 tonne passenger liner and launched a torpedo, finishing her off with a second. U-26 reported the sinking of this supposedly French cruise ship 150 kilometres west of Sardinia to Admiral Karl Dönitz. The same night distress signals from Italian passenger liner Roma reached Sardinia and nearby auxiliary vessels of the Italian Navy as well as fishing ships responded. The Roma sank in 45 minutes and due to her severe list, which ultimately brought about her capsizing, she was unable to deploy all of her lifeboats. 389 people out of a complement of 1.121 passengers and crewmembers were rescued while the remaining 722, almost all of them Italians, died at sea of drowning or hypothermia. Initially, it was thought that a French or British submarine might have been the culprit, but Germany’s news outlets confirmed their responsibility for the catastrophe the next day. Apparently, with only moonlight to go on, the U-26 had misidentified the Italian tricolour as the French flag. Public opinion in Italy was outraged and Mussolini saw his hand forced, bringing the war to Italy sooner than he’d wanted, but he couldn’t afford to be seen as a coward.

He held a speech in Rome that was broadcast on radio across the country and the streets and squares filled with people who wanted to hear this message: “People of Italy, pay heed! Three days ago, a barbaric act was committed by this country north of the Alps. Slavishly following a pitiful doctrine, they have made this a racial war, and now we’ve seen that they have no respect for any race other than their own. They will never stop. It is clearly an illusion to believe that Italy can be an independent island in a German sea. The declaration of war has already been delivered to the ambassador of Germany. We go to battle against this insatiable imperialist and racist aggressor, which has more than once hindered the advance of or even threatened the very existence of the Italian people. We will avenge the victims of the Roma! We will fight, because it’s the iron necessity for national survival!” On March 29th 1940 Mussolini declared war on Germany, cheered on by an exhilarated crowd.
 
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So it has begun...I still have little faith in Mussoilini, but I actually going to bank that faith in hope that he'll pull off a victory.
 
I like this.

Would the ex-patriate forces/leaders got to Italy first? It would be a political victory and would increase US aid in the future.
 
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