AHC: U.S. state of Yucatan

The idea of an American annexation of Yucatan during the early part of the Caste Wars comes up reasonably often on this board. The basic situation is straightforward: during the early part of the Caste Wars, the Spanish-speaking elite of Yucatan were begging for annexation from anyone who they thought could defend the Maya. This included the US of A, among others. The USA did debate the matter in Congress, but never really came close to intervening.

I'm looking for a way to make this happen, to the point where there's a semblance of possibility of the Yucatan being stable enough to be admitted as a state by 1864. There are several difficulties. The first is getting the USA interested in the first place. The Caste Wars promised to be long and bloody, and (as someone on shwi once said) it's not easy getting the USA interested in sticking a finger into that meat grinder.

The second is keeping the USA interested enough to stick at conquering the Yucatan. This will be difficult jungle warfare, requiring a considerable expenditure of blood and treasure to accomplish. I think this could be done if the political will was there, but it would be a matter of several years, probably a decade before the U.S. can even pretend that the Yucatan is "pacified".

Is there a way to get that kind of initial interest and ongoing political will?

Disclaimer: I'm not asking this out of some desire for a kind of Ameriwank or Maya-screw. (As if OTL wasn't bad enough for the latter already.)

Rather, I have a vague idea for a mini-TL where the *Republicans in the North, in an alt-Civil War, are so desperately concerned to achieve an electoral victory in 1864 that they create Yucatan as a state (along with Nevada and possibly one other territory). The idea is that the precedent of Yucatan (as a largely indigenous, non-English speaking state) sets an example for race relations which improves those considerably in the broader USA over the next few decades.

Thoughts? Can it be done? Or does it require pressing some solar chiropterans into service?

One way to generate the political will might unfortunately be increasing the racist sentiments of manifest destiny at the time. Depict the entire war and occupation as the "burdened and noble white man" bringing civilization to the "barbarous, savage natives", which could have had better appeal to the average citizen and gloss over the fact hat it really was just a landgrab. Perhaps a south that has or is in the process of losing its balance in congress could be desperate to try and expand slavery to the newly acquired territory? I don't see any way for this to not blow up in their face, though.

Jared said:

The idea of an American annexation of Yucatan during the early part of the Caste Wars comes up reasonably often on this board. The basic situation is straightforward: during the early part of the Caste Wars, the Spanish-speaking elite of Yucatan were begging for annexation from anyone who they thought could defend the Maya. This included the US of A, among others. The USA did debate the matter in Congress, but never really came close to intervening.

I'm looking for a way to make this happen, to the point where there's a semblance of possibility of the Yucatan being stable enough to be admitted as a state by 1864. There are several difficulties. The first is getting the USA interested in the first place. The Caste Wars promised to be long and bloody, and (as someone on shwi once said) it's not easy getting the USA interested in sticking a finger into that meat grinder.

The second is keeping the USA interested enough to stick at conquering the Yucatan. This will be difficult jungle warfare, requiring a considerable expenditure of blood and treasure to accomplish. I think this could be done if the political will was there, but it would be a matter of several years, probably a decade before the U.S. can even pretend that the Yucatan is "pacified".

Is there a way to get that kind of initial interest and ongoing political will?

Disclaimer: I'm not asking this out of some desire for a kind of Ameriwank or Maya-screw. (As if OTL wasn't bad enough for the latter already.)

Rather, I have a vague idea for a mini-TL where the *Republicans in the North, in an alt-Civil War, are so desperately concerned to achieve an electoral victory in 1864 that they create Yucatan as a state (along with Nevada and possibly one other territory). The idea is that the precedent of Yucatan (as a largely indigenous, non-English speaking state) sets an example for race relations which improves those considerably in the broader USA over the next few decades.

Thoughts? Can it be done? Or does it require pressing some solar chiropterans into service?

Click to expand...

But the Caste Wars are during the time of the Missouri Compromise which means Yucatan becomes slaver territory. So you're probably looking at ethnic cleansing (if not outright genocide), severe environmental degradation with the introduction of the plantation system and another slave state. Otherwise I don't see the south going along with it, and at this point the north is more or less begging them to stay in the union; they won't do it without southern permission.

moxn said:

One way to generate the political will might unfortunately be increasing the racist sentiments of manifest destiny at the time. Depict the entire war and occupation as the "burdened and noble white man" bringing civilization to the "barbarous, savage natives", which could have had better appeal to the average citizen and gloss over the fact hat it really was just a landgrab. Perhaps a south that has or is in the process of losing its balance in congress could be desperate to try and expand slavery to the newly acquired territory? I don't see any way for this to not blow up in their face, though.

Click to expand...

That kind of "white man's burden" racist sentiment might work, although it would depend how that affects other areas of the U.S. and its expansion. I'm trying not to make changes too far back, or that might change things so much that even an *Civil War would be unrecognisable.

Having the South become desperate for more slave territory may be part of the explanation, I think. But I'm not sure it's enough in itself; that's why I'm trying to figure out some other motivation to go along with it.

Booster Gold said:

But the Caste Wars are during the time of the Missouri Compromise which means Yucatan becomes slaver territory. So you're probably looking at ethnic cleansing (if not outright genocide), severe environmental degradation with the introduction of the plantation system and another slave state. Otherwise I don't see the south going along with it, and at this point the north is more or less begging them to stay in the union; they won't do it without southern permission.

Click to expand...

By the time of the Caste War and the invitation to the US to intervene (1847-48), the Missouri Compromise was already breaking down. This was the era of the intensive argument which was eventually settled (for a time) with the Compromise of 1850. So how Yucatan is treated, territory-wise, depends on the broader resolution of that disagreement. Yucatan would be too manifestly unstable to introduce in a pairing arrangement with California, but there may be other comproises can be worked out.

And yes, it would be an ugly decade in the Yucatan if it does get admitted as a territory. But the Maya are too numerous and too skilled in jungle warfare to be wiped out. So come the *Civil War and the passage of some equivalents of the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments, the Maya will be a significant majority in the Yucatan... which is now a state.

Jared said:

The idea of an American annexation of Yucatan during the early part of the Caste Wars comes up reasonably often on this board. The basic situation is straightforward: during the early part of the Caste Wars, the Spanish-speaking elite of Yucatan were begging for annexation from anyone who they thought could defend the Maya. This included the US of A, among others. The USA did debate the matter in Congress, but never really came close to intervening.

I'm looking for a way to make this happen, to the point where there's a semblance of possibility of the Yucatan being stable enough to be admitted as a state by 1864. There are several difficulties. The first is getting the USA interested in the first place. The Caste Wars promised to be long and bloody, and (as someone on shwi once said) it's not easy getting the USA interested in sticking a finger into that meat grinder.

The second is keeping the USA interested enough to stick at conquering the Yucatan. This will be difficult jungle warfare, requiring a considerable expenditure of blood and treasure to accomplish. I think this could be done if the political will was there, but it would be a matter of several years, probably a decade before the U.S. can even pretend that the Yucatan is "pacified".

Is there a way to get that kind of initial interest and ongoing political will?

Disclaimer: I'm not asking this out of some desire for a kind of Ameriwank or Maya-screw. (As if OTL wasn't bad enough for the latter already.)

Rather, I have a vague idea for a mini-TL where the *Republicans in the North, in an alt-Civil War, are so desperately concerned to achieve an electoral victory in 1864 that they create Yucatan as a state (along with Nevada and possibly one other territory). The idea is that the precedent of Yucatan (as a largely indigenous, non-English speaking state) sets an example for race relations which improves those considerably in the broader USA over the next few decades.

Thoughts? Can it be done? Or does it require pressing some solar chiropterans into service?

Click to expand...

To be honest, Jared, I think it *can* ultimately be done, but, firstly, I'm afraid it would likely require a few fairly long reaching PODs, possibly going as far back as the dawn of the 19th Century; strangling organized anti-Catholicism(or at least northern anti-Catholicism!) in its grave would definitely be a good start.

But then there's the prejudice and the racism to deal with. It's quite possible, though, that one could be able to get away with a loophole of keeping the Maya, or at least those not willing to assimilate into American society, as essentially vassalized(as was done with the other Native American peoples; in fact, as some may recall, many did not receive full citizenship until 1924 IOTL).....there would still be issues, and this arrangement could not last forever, but it's far less bad than outright full-scale ethnic cleansing.

As for the state itself? I don't think the entire peninsula would be joined in right away; chances are, at the onset, I suspect it'd be just the coast, and maybe some 15-20 miles inland, depending on the exact location, with the rest as a territory of some kind; it would probably take a couple of decades, maybe even towards the very end of the century to even consider making the whole peninsula a state.

How many of those Maya will be actually voting?

(Ah, I see Caliboy has covered that)

For this to work the US has to go in essentially blind, because any real understanding of the situation will be deeply discouraging, and get drawn in by stages until it's a proper quagmire, at which point we can't just quit.

(Blood of good American boys spilled, the American flag must never be lowered, etc. )

And the fuss over the hasty creation of Yucatan state to steal an election is going to be spectacular.

I really think people overestimate how hard it would be subjeecgate the Yuctan America had already conquered a continent at that point I don't think it be anything other then a speedbump. I mean the would be a lot dead from disease but back then people didn't then the same way about that amount of death, it wouldn't be preety obviously but the U.S would get the job done.

Here are two tangents to your question:
Have a free Cuba try to start up a confederation in Central America.
Have the British expand from Belize into Yucatan.

Given that the Maya are Native Americans what would happen is that the Maya would be fought off and driven into reservations or Mexico, and the white Mexicans would be all that were left. Yucatan would probably be a slave territory because there would be a lot of sugar plantations and the like (but probably not much cotton, so growth would be limited). Since it would take years to pacify the Maya and clear the jungle well enough for white settlement by 1861 the non-Mayan population of Yucatan would be fairly small and based along the coasts and already existing cities. They would probably be in a similar situation to the border states, particularly since they would rely on federal troops to keep the Maya at bay. Yucatan probably becomes a state around the same time as Arizona/New Mexico, or in the 1920s at most.

Napoleon IV said:

Given that the Maya are Native Americans what would happen is that the Maya would be fought off and driven into reservations or Mexico, and the white Mexicans would be all that were left. Yucatan would probably be a slave territory because there would be a lot of sugar plantations and the like (but probably not much cotton, so growth would be limited). Since it would take years to pacify the Maya and clear the jungle well enough for white settlement by 1861 the non-Mayan population of Yucatan would be fairly small and based along the coasts and already existing cities. They would probably be in a similar situation to the border states, particularly since they would rely on federal troops to keep the Maya at bay. Yucatan probably becomes a state around the same time as Arizona/New Mexico, or in the 1920s at most.

Click to expand...

The Maya had fended off the Spanish until 1697 and almost won, continuing a slowly losing stalemate into 1902 followed by insurgency till 1933; they were experts there as much as any other. The Americans would speed up the conquest greatly, but not without trouble as the only other place they had encountered the jungle was in Florida with Jackson.

Napoleon IV said:

Given that the Maya are Native Americans what would happen is that the Maya would be fought off and driven into reservations or Mexico, and the white Mexicans would be all that were left. Yucatan would probably be a slave territory because there would be a lot of sugar plantations and the like (but probably not much cotton, so growth would be limited). Since it would take years to pacify the Maya and clear the jungle well enough for white settlement by 1861 the non-Mayan population of Yucatan would be fairly small and based along the coasts and already existing cities. They would probably be in a similar situation to the border states, particularly since they would rely on federal troops to keep the Maya at bay. Yucatan probably becomes a state around the same time as Arizona/New Mexico, or in the 1920s at most.

Click to expand...

The Belgians and the Russians are both Europeans and yet somehow in WW2 Germany had much more trouble with one of those countries than it did the other, can you hazard a guess as to why?

Also, the Yucatan was already settled by white people, it was conquered by the Spanish hundreds of years before the US Congress mulled over the idea of annexing the place. White Yucatecos that haciendas (aka, plantations) with the Maya people as serfs and treated them poorly enough that there was a bloody war which the Yucatecos were losing, hence why they asked either Mexico or the USA for help. It's one thing not to know Latin-American history, but this is all in the OP.

9 Fanged Hummingbird said:

Also, the Yucatan was already settled by white people, it was conquered by the Spanish . . . It's one thing not to know Latin-American history, but this is all in the OP.

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Alright but how thorough was that settlement? I would think the Mayans greatly outnumbered the Spaniards.

9 Fanged Hummingbird said:

one of those countries than it did the other, can you hazard a guess as to why?

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Because the Belgians combined their impressive but poorly known lead in rocketry with chemical weapons and bombed German cities with nerve gas in retaliation for the invasion, which was only slowed by the timely falling of trees across forest roads to impede movement? . . .

B_Munro said:

How many of those Maya will be actually voting?

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My general thought was that some version of a Maya Code would prevent them from voting, or indeed much of anything, during the initial scramble to create it as a state in 1863-1864. Some rather brazen political maneouvring involved, but it's not as if there was a lack of precedent for race-based laws in the USA.

However, then the equivalents of the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments come along. The Maya are far, far too numerous, and too well-armed, to be subject to any version of Jim Crow.

For this to work the US has to go in essentially blind, because any real understanding of the situation will be deeply discouraging, and get drawn in by stages until it's a proper quagmire, at which point we can't just quit.

Click to expand...

I think that may need to be a good part of the answer. The USA, seeing how the initial sieges of Campeche and Mérida have been lifted and the Maya apparently driven back, thinks that it's just a matter of selling some guns and a few troops to help the white Yucatecos "finish the job" of suppressing the insurgency.

Whoops.

And the fuss over the hasty creation of Yucatan state to steal an election is going to be spectacular.

Click to expand...

It will make any fuss over Nevada look like an apostrophe.

Lateknight said:

I really think people overestimate how hard it would be subjeecgate the Yuctan America had already conquered a continent at that point I don't think it be anything other then a speedbump. I mean the would be a lot dead from disease but back then people didn't then the same way about that amount of death, it wouldn't be preety obviously but the U.S would get the job done.

Click to expand...

The Maya were far, far more numerous than the various Native American peoples which the USA was busy massacring and dispossessing further north in this era. They were very experienced in jungle warfare, far more than the US of A was. (If I remember right, some American military veterans tried to go down on an expedition against the Maya during this era. Their performance was not spectacular.) The Caste War dragged on for decades.

And then there's tropical diseases.

Yes, with enough blood and treasure, the USA can win such a war. But it will require a lot of both, and a substantial time, before they can manage. And even then, there would probably be periodic insurgencies for quite a long time.

PuffyClouds said:

Here are two tangents to your question:
Have a free Cuba try to start up a confederation in Central America.
Have the British expand from Belize into Yucatan.

Click to expand...

Either of those may make a interesting subplot in a TL, but I'd need to work out the main part first before.

Napoleon IV said:

Given that the Maya are Native Americans what would happen is that the Maya would be fought off and driven into reservations or Mexico, and the white Mexicans would be all that were left. Yucatan would probably be a slave territory because there would be a lot of sugar plantations and the like (but probably not much cotton, so growth would be limited).

Click to expand...

The numbers of Maya were seriously large. Driving them off would be the work of several years, more likely decades, and partitioning them off into reservations was impractical since the Spanish-speaking Yucatecos wanted them as a labour force. (That was part of the problem). Slavery may solve part of the labour problem, but only part.

And as an aside, the two big crops would be sisal/henequen and sugar. Sisal was seriously profitable - a very useful tropical fibre - and funded some major development of Yucatan (the peninusla) in OTL. And even in OTL, was sometimes grown with slave labour. (See the fate of the Yaqui).

More broadly, how American settlement of any part of the Yucatan would go would depend on the nature of the military program. The white Yucatecos drove back the Maya from considerable regions in the early part of the war (1848-1850) once they had access to Mexican troops and guns; presumably American assistance would be as good or better. But the Maya still retained control of large parts of territory, and were able to conduct an insurgency even in regions where the white Yucatecos nominally controlled the territory. So the regions where any American settlement happens will be rather limited, yes.

Does anyone have any further thoughts on a way of making this work?

The only vague idea I have is finding a way to have the Missouri Compromise start breaking down a couple of years earlier, leading to stronger Southern interest in preserving future territory for slavery. So since it is readily apparent to them that most of the new western territories are not going to be profitable for slavery at current prices, they start looking elsewhere.

This would still involve the Mexican-American War starting on schedule, and the same general military progress of that war in other theatres. A somewhat similar peace treaty follows, although since Anyone Other Than Trist would have secured a border further south, that's what happens with some underpopulated areas of northern Mexico.

The USA stumbles into Yucatán sometime in late 1847/early 1848, and the supply of guns and a few troops allows the Yucatecos to do similarly to what they did in OTL and recapture significant parts of the peninsula (though the Maya still control large swathes of territory). That's enough for the USA to convince themselves, for a while, that the Yucatán is easily winnable. So the *Compromise of 1850 recognises Yucatán as a potential slave state in the future, though not at the moment.

The 1850s roll on with the Yucatán being a quagmire, and any of the further acquistions of territory from Mexico also remain territories rather than states. The sectional conflict in the USA continues to heat up during this decade; while the details differ a bit, by 1860 an anti-slavery party has won the presidential election despite not carrying a single slave state. (Based on previous discussions on soc.history.what-if, I'm largely of the mind that further acquisitions of territory from Mexico would not postpone the ACW; Kansas-Nebraska was a likely flashpoint regardless of anything that happened in Mexico).

So an *ACW breaks out. The North does slightly worse than in OTL due to a combination of there being more military veterans in the South than in OTL (from the various Yucatán campaigns) and worse political leadership alienating the population of the border states. The result will still end up being a northern victory, since the weight of population and industry is still so heavily in their favour. But along the way, the *Republicans are so fearful of popular opinion in the 1864 election that they introduce Yucatán, Nevada and possibly one other western territory as new states, to obtain both six *Republican senators and a further 9 possibly vital electoral votes.

And then things turn very strange from there.

Does this sound even vaguely plausible?

Hmm, let's see.

President Polk dies in 1846 (his health was especially bad that year I believe, and he certainly did overwork himself in OTL given that he died months after the end of his term(admittedly of cholera but still)) and VP George M. Dallas takes power. Dallas was in favor of All Mexico, and while he almost certainly doesn't achieve that, his intransigence makes the war go longer and to pander to southerners, Dallas also expands the war into the Yucatan. Come 1849, Dallas or a new Taylor administration ends up negotiating a more limited peace that still keeps the Yucatan. Yucatan becomes a popular sovereignty territory, and stays in limbo for a while. (unless somehow a Wilmot Proviso equivalent succeeds, which would be another way to make it free)

Aside from maybe a potential *Gadsden Purchase to get Tabasco and Chiapas, events probably tick along similarly until the civil war.

EDIT:
For a fun alternative, Henry Clay wins NY and the election in 1844 (yay for non-expansionism) except that Polk still wins the popular vote. So after Clay's administration is dogged for 4 years by another "stolen election" Polk wins in 1848 with one of his campaign issues being the recent "need to prevent the barbarization of the Yucatan (since by now the caste war is underway). Come 1849 when Polk is inaugurated, he sees Barabachano's offer as a good way to hurt Mexico in the war.

I'm speaking as someone with only the most basic knowledge of either place, but might Florida be used as a template for how this US annexation of Yucatan would play out?

Perhapsburg said:

President Polk dies in 1846 (his health was especially bad that year I believe, and he certainly did overwork himself in OTL given that he died months after the end of his term(admittedly of cholera but still)) and VP George M. Dallas takes power. Dallas was in favor of All Mexico, and while he almost certainly doesn't achieve that, his intransigence makes the war go longer and to pander to southerners, Dallas also expands the war into the Yucatan. Come 1849, Dallas or a new Taylor administration ends up negotiating a more limited peace that still keeps the Yucatan. Yucatan becomes a popular sovereignty territory, and stays in limbo for a while. (unless somehow a Wilmot Proviso equivalent succeeds, which would be another way to make it free)

Aside from maybe a potential *Gadsden Purchase to get Tabasco and Chiapas, events probably tick along similarly until the civil war.

Click to expand...

This certainly has some potential. Dallas was opportunistic enough and expansionistic enough that he might get all sorts of bright ideas, and prosecuting them as war measures makes it harder for the Senate and Congress to resist.

So long as Polk dies at least a couple of months after the Mexican-American War breaks out, that means that it becomes Dallas's duty to "pursue the execution of this war in a manner fitting to what the lamented former President would have wanted".

Result, bogged down in Yucatan, some border slightly further south (a la No Trist), and a new U.S. territory which is about to show them the meaning of "running sore".

For a fun alternative, Henry Clay wins NY and the election in 1844 (yay for non-expansionism) except that Polk still wins the popular vote. So after Clay's administration is dogged for 4 years by another "stolen election" Polk wins in 1848 with one of his campaign issues being the recent "need to prevent the barbarization of the Yucatan (since by now the caste war is underway). Come 1849 when Polk is inaugurated, he sees Barabachano's offer as a good way to hurt Mexico in the war.

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The Clay alternative is interesting, but would he have ended up with a Mexican-American War in the first place? More generally, I'd prefer a later PoD if possible, to restrict general butterflies, although I'm open to the earlier PoD if it looks like it would make things more plausible.

MrP said:

I'm speaking as someone with only the most basic knowledge of either place, but might Florida be used as a template for how this US annexation of Yucatan would play out?

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On a much larger scale, perhaps. There was disease and other problems in Florida, too, if I remember right. So imagine the problems which the U.S. of A had in trying to conquer the Seminoles, and then with a Seminole territory and escaped slaves, and then multiply that by a large number...

I did some looking into the Polk-Dallas POD, and based on the Polk diaries he had the illness late August 1846, when there was a presidential visit to Norfolk that could easily have become a Taylor or Harding type situation. (POD: the same cherries that killed Taylor served 4 years early ?)

Alternatively, for a later POD a Lewis Cass victory in 1848 (which would just require Taylor writing something dumb about the tariff, and losing Pennsylvania) could give President Cass an opportunity to intervene.

Perhapsburg said:

I did some looking into the Polk-Dallas POD, and based on the Polk diaries he had the illness late August 1846, when there was a presidential visit to Norfolk that could easily have become a Taylor or Harding type situation. (POD: the same cherries that killed Taylor served 4 years early ?)

Alternatively, for a later POD a Lewis Cass victory in 1848 (which would just require Taylor writing something dumb about the tariff, and losing Pennsylvania) could give President Cass an opportunity to intervene.

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Apologies, life got in the way of replying earlier to this.

I like the Polk-Dallas PoD, since it lines up pretty well with the Mexican-American War, and is just after Dallas has backed the Walker tariff which will make him so unpopular in his home state. It may lead to all sorts of shenanigans on his part to try to rebuild support there, such as backing major Mexican acquisitions (something that was popular in some parts of the press in Pennsylvania), and/or various efforts to win support elsewhere in the country, such as by trying to keep the South happy by offering Yucatan.

The Lewis Cass victory may be less useful since by then Yucatan will have already turned to Mexico and reincorporation, so the window has probably passed.

I'll try to throw together a very rough timeline sequence to post here about the possibilities.

Jared said:

Apologies, life got in the way of replying earlier to this.

I like the Polk-Dallas PoD, since it lines up pretty well with the Mexican-American War, and is just after Dallas has backed the Walker tariff which will make him so unpopular in his home state. It may lead to all sorts of shenanigans on his part to try to rebuild support there, such as backing major Mexican acquisitions (something that was popular in some parts of the press in Pennsylvania), and/or various efforts to win support elsewhere in the country, such as by trying to keep the South happy by offering Yucatan.

The Lewis Cass victory may be less useful since by then Yucatan will have already turned to Mexico and reincorporation, so the window has probably passed.

I'll try to throw together a very rough timeline sequence to post here about the possibilities.

Click to expand...

Given the Radicalization of parts of the US in the North, perhaps whoever is Military Governor of Yucatan at the time of the Rebellion decides to stick one to the slavocrats (Since I assume to local plantation owners decide to rebel as well) and breaks up the big estates and co opts the Maya as allies. That could end up with the area being pacified enough that admitting the area as a state is vaguely conceivable, and it makes the ideological questions involved even more awkward!