Zimbabwe a success

Derek Jackson

Could a Mandela type figure have won control of the Patriotic front in 1979?

In any event some land redistribution was unavoidable, could it have been done so actual farmers took over land that had been expropriated by colonists in the late 19th and early 20th Century
 

Dave Howery

according to National Geographic a few years back, Zimbabwe had a real shot at peace and prosperity... there was a plan in the works for the whites to voluntarily split up the vast farms they held into smaller black-owned farms, and in turn, be compensated for the equipment and livestock they would be giving up. It was apparently all drawn up and ready to go... but Mugabe himself threw a wrench into the whole thing when he submitted a referendum to give himself more power, which was defeated in an open vote. He blamed the whites for the defeat, and just seized the farms and parceled them out to his cronies, who promptly ran them into the ground. Avoid that whole mess somehow, and Zimbabwe, if not fabulously wealthy, will at least be moderately well off and able to feed itself...
 

Francisco Cojuanco

There was also British subsidies that aided the willing buyer willing seller scheme that got cut when Tony Blair came to power. Maybe if Major somehow holds on for a little longer?
 

idontlikesand

Derek Jackson said:
Could a Mandela type figure have won control of the Patriotic front in 1979?

In any event some land redistribution was unavoidable, could it have been done so actual farmers took over land that had been expropriated by colonists in the late 19th and early 20th Century
Click to expand...

I'm probably going to receive a lot of flak for saying this but personally although one can't dispute the fact that Mandela was the main reason peace prevailed in post apartheid south africa, he did fail to bring economic prosperity to his people.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...son-Mandelas-focus-was-on-nation-bulding.html

Seriously with african leaders there's a pattern of wonderful liberation leaders who completely fail economically once they're given the job of leading their countries. Nkrumah, mugabe, nyerere(the hitler moustache didn't help) etc.
 

Marius

idontlikesand said:
I'm probably going to receive a lot of flak for saying this but personally although one can't dispute the fact that Mandela was the main reason peace prevailed in post apartheid south africa, he did fail to bring economic prosperity to his people.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...son-Mandelas-focus-was-on-nation-bulding.html

Seriously with african leaders there's a pattern of wonderful liberation leaders who completely fail economically once they're given the job of leading their countries. Nkrumah, mugabe, nyerere(the hitler moustache didn't help) etc.
Click to expand...

You can hardly include Mandela with Mugabe, Mkrumah, Nyerere etc. as examples of leaders who let their economies collapse. Sure Mandela made mistakes, but in general, the average South African is far better off today than they were when Mandela took over.
 

Marius

idontlikesand said:
Actually Black south africans are worse off now economically than they were after the end of apartheid.


http://www.nber.org/digest/jan06/w11384.html
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Oh come on.

That article speaks about incomes up to the end of 2000 - 14 years ago.

Using more updated figures, the incomes of all South Africans has increased since the end of apartheid (although there is still a large gap between white and black incomes).

In addition, levels of education have risen, as has access to basic services, such as sanitation, and so on.
 

Marius

Reagent said:
However, the reason Zimbabwe's economy declined post-2003 had far more to do with bad governing decisions than US targeted sanction.

It's also worth nothing that Rhodesia was never completely sanctioned anyway, and their economy still declined in the 1970s. Rhodesia was largely able to bypass the sanctions through Portuguese Mozmabique, and in many instances Western Countries outright ignored international sanctions on certain Rhodesian mineral exports.
Click to expand...

Yeah, Zimbabwe's economic collapse has everything to do with poor financial management of the economy, and very little to do with sanctions.
 
Julius Vogel

Julius Vogel

Give Mugabe an early death say in 1983, before Nkomo left/was kicked out, before the starting of troubles in Matabeleland. Not sure how, aside from the usual car crash. If that happens, maybe a unity government stays in place longer? Might retain International goodwill longer too.
 

Marius

Or, how about you keep Nkomo and ZAPU out of the Patriotic Front. You then have a strong counterweight to ZANU, wit strong support in Matabeleland.

If this can grow to be a coalition of Matabele, whites, and dissatisfied Shonas, you could have a party that could challenge ZANU at the polls.

But this could also mean Mugabe's authoritarian streak comes to the fore earlier in this TL.
 
Julius Vogel

Julius Vogel

Marius said:
Or, how about you keep Nkomo and ZAPU out of the Patriotic Front. You then have a strong counterweight to ZANU, wit strong support in Matabeleland.

If this can grow to be a coalition of Matabele, whites, and dissatisfied Shonas, you could have a party that could challenge ZANU at the polls.

But this could also mean Mugabe's authoritarian streak comes to the fore earlier in this TL.
Click to expand...

That is the thing really. Unity government might help to keep all those young, armed men in check for a bit longer.
 

TxCoatl1970

What I'd like is what Marius and Julius Vogel have set out.

Trouble is, IF Mugabe dies ca 1983- IMO you get a bloody civil war within ZANU with 300K dead and 1MM wounded and roughly OTL refugeee population (3-4MM) fleeing the country.

Sure, the economy's a mess and there was a nasty massacre (Gukurahundi campaign from 1982-1985) that killed @ 20,000 Matabele IOTL . IMO, it'd be far worse.

As to the Matabeles, whites and dissident Shona finding common cause---
and cooperating to restrain Mugabe, essentially that's what MDC tried to do, but between ZANU patronage, vote rigging, and downright police repression, it's clear trying to unseat Mugabe's a dead letter through the ballot box.

The sad fact is IF Tsingvarai and MDC actually got power, are there any gurantees it won't just switch who's got the levers of powers and thus who gets the big cut of profits?

Anyone can do anything, given time and the right resources at hand.
Zimbabwe can be a functional democracy with prosperity for all.

The main problem is that the economy's main earners- agriculture and mineral exports are pretty easy to manipulate to the benefit of whomever's in power.
The land "reforms" redistributing land to ZANU supporters have wrought havoc on yields of cash and subsistence crops.

Tourism isn't bad either, but it requires a bit more flexibility than ZANU-PF allowed.

Microcredit and encouragement of entrepreneurial ventures would do wonders to help Zimbabweans improve their own lives and develop their own internal economy.

Trouble is, the folks that have most often made that happen were whites and Asians and that created no small amount of bitterness considering that ZANU-PF stressed the benefits of everyone having roughly the same benefits with nobody being a privileged class except for the leaders of the revolution, of course.:rolleyes:

Also, whomever's in charge shouldn't let health care go down the drain during the AIDS pandemic!
Between AIDS and cholera outbreaks, it's obvious nobody's minding or funding the public health.
Do the public education about AIDS, safe sex, condom distribution, and aggressively negotiate for AZT and other drugs to help stop the transmission of AIDS from mothers to infants.
The education and rubbers are cheap.

Cholera's preventable, but when you can only run power three days a week, how do you expect to adequately treat sewage?
 

Marius

TxCoatl1970 said:
What I'd like is what Marius and Julius Vogel have set out.

Trouble is, IF Mugabe dies ca 1983- IMO you get a bloody civil war within ZANU with 300K dead and 1MM wounded and roughly OTL refugeee population (3-4MM) fleeing the country.

Sure, the economy's a mess and there was a nasty massacre (Gukurahundi campaign from 1982-1985) that killed @ 20,000 Matabele IOTL . IMO, it'd be far worse.

As to the Matabeles, whites and dissident Shona finding common cause---
and cooperating to restrain Mugabe, essentially that's what MDC tried to do, but between ZANU patronage, vote rigging, and downright police repression, it's clear trying to unseat Mugabe's a dead letter through the ballot box.

The sad fact is IF Tsingvarai and MDC actually got power, are there any gurantees it won't just switch who's got the levers of powers and thus who gets the big cut of profits?

Anyone can do anything, given time and the right resources at hand.
Zimbabwe can be a functional democracy with prosperity for all.

The main problem is that the economy's main earners- agriculture and mineral exports are pretty easy to manipulate to the benefit of whomever's in power.
The land "reforms" redistributing land to ZANU supporters have wrought havoc on yields of cash and subsistence crops.

Tourism isn't bad either, but it requires a bit more flexibility than ZANU-PF allowed.

Microcredit and encouragement of entrepreneurial ventures would do wonders to help Zimbabweans improve their own lives and develop their own internal economy.

Trouble is, the folks that have most often made that happen were whites and Asians and that created no small amount of bitterness considering that ZANU-PF stressed the benefits of everyone having roughly the same benefits with nobody being a privileged class except for the leaders of the revolution, of course.:rolleyes:

Also, whomever's in charge shouldn't let health care go down the drain during the AIDS pandemic!
Between AIDS and cholera outbreaks, it's obvious nobody's minding or funding the public health.
Do the public education about AIDS, safe sex, condom distribution, and aggressively negotiate for AZT and other drugs to help stop the transmission of AIDS from mothers to infants.
The education and rubbers are cheap.

Cholera's preventable, but when you can only run power three days a week, how do you expect to adequately treat sewage?
Click to expand...

I don't know about that, if his death isn't suspicious I don't know if we will automatically have a civil war.
 
Julius Vogel

Julius Vogel

Marius said:
Let him go visit Mandela on Robben Island. Ferry sinks on the way.

Oops.
Click to expand...

There has to be some angle where no one can be blamed or incite violence. I'm nearly certain that BOSS didn't have any agents in the Robben Island seal community but then they did have sticky fingers and friend with deep pockets full of fish.
 
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