Henry VIII killed by his jousting accident in 1524

Petike

Petike

A Tudor POD I've thought about...

Henry VIII, everyone's favourite royal egomaniac, loved taking part directly in jousting events. During his life, he suffered two serious incidents of injury while jousting, the first in 1524 and the second in 1536.

The latter event seems to be more famous, as many have been swarming to the theory that Henry's most notorious medical problems and hints of mental instability really took off after said incident.

However, I'm more interested in the earlier accident from 1524. From what I've heard and read, he charged at his opponent while forgetting to pull his visor down. This unfortunately led his opponent's lance into accidentally striking the king's forehead (above the left eye, IIRC) and then it promptly shattered. Henry flew off the horse and the splinters from the broken jousting lance injured him on several parts of the head. Mostly surface wounds, though.

My question is simple: What if the lance hit him even more unfortunately into the face, to the point that it pierced his eye all the way into the skull, damaging his brain and killing him ? Would there be a succession crisis if he died, what would happen with the Tudor dynasty and period England ?
 
Alex Richards

Alex Richards

Donor
I think it would be pretty uncontroversial to put 8 year old Mary on the throne with Catherine of Aragon as part of a suitably selected regency council. It's not as if there are any other strong male candidates at this point- James V was 12 and Henry Brandon (who died young OTL) was 1. Henry Fitzroy is also too young to be in for a chance.

Possibly this might be taken as an opportunity to forma union of the crowns early- it would require a papal dispensation of course, but a marriage between James V and the now Mary I would not be out of the question I think- particularly as James, being both older and the senior male heir to Henry at this point- could argue his own claim to the throne of England being strong enough to take the leading role in the marriage.
 
Sian

Sian

At that point Mary Tudor is only 6 years old so while she's the legitimate heir, i'm slightly doubtful she's allowed to stay the heir. Accidents happen...

Primary Pretenders would be James V of Scotland (via his mother Margeret Tudor, the eldest sister to Henry VIII) and Charles Brandon (as regent for his son Henry Brandon with Mary Tudor, second sister to Henry VIII). Interesting fact is that James V only had a infant female heir at the time of his death, while Henry Brandon died as a young adult, in which case the succession would be his eldest sister Frances Grey (OTL Mother of Jane Grey).

It appears genetics is dead set on making England be ruled by a female heir at this point as all practically all sons in the Tudor line of succession seemed to die as flies.
 

Londinium

I think it's likely there's be SOME effort to put Princess Mary on the throne BUT inasmuch as there'd been no previous success female English monarch in her own right, it's likely there wouldn't be strong opposition and even revolts from other branches of Plantagenets to try to supplant the Tudor Dynasty altogether with one of their candidates. Perhaps, it may be proposed that Mary could grow up to be the 'winner's Queen Consort [as had happened with Princess Elizabeth of York re Henry VII].
 

Michael B

Londinium said:
I think it's likely there's be SOME effort to put Princess Mary on the throne BUT inasmuch as there'd been no previous success female English monarch in her own right,
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What about the Empress Matilda? She certainly held her ground against Stephen.
Londinium said:
Perhaps, it may be proposed that Mary could grow up to be the 'winner's Queen Consort [as had happened with Princess Elizabeth of York re Henry VII].
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Big stakes then to play for. It would be worth a magnate kidnapping her as happened to some Scottish Kings. Alternatively, a coup a la Henry of Bolingbroke is on the cards.
 
Alex Richards

Alex Richards

Donor
Mary was born in 1516, so she's 8 at this point not 6.

As for other Plantagenets, there's Richard de la Pole, who might well make an effort if he doesn't get killed in 1525 as OTL. Beyond that, the male line went extinct with Edward, Earl of Warwick in 1499, but there's a possible case with the Baron Montagu, though his claim is really on the weak side and the only slight benefit he has is that he's an adult and married (though his own children hardly had the best luck in terms of legitimate issue either). Whether he actually wanted the throne is very debatable however.

As is, I think the Countess of Salisbury and Baron Montagu would be certain of a position in any regency council formed to keep them on side, but even they'd be likely to admit that their claim was weaker than that of Mary Tudor, James V, Henry Brandon or Richard de la Pole. The latter is the only one who seems like he'd have a real chance of invading and gaining the crown, but the possibility of a Scottish match may well be too tempting for the English nobility.
 

Youngmarshall

Certainly the general fear of another round of the war of the roses breaking out dictated so much of how the english nobility behaved under henry vii and viii. The first thought on everyone's minds will be 'oh crap, another weak monarch'.

Henry vii spent his entire reign dogged by fears of pretenders and while the crowning of Henry viii was greeted as the end to that, there is a reason he was so obsessed with a male heir.
 
Petike

Petike

Thanks for the insights so far, guys !

It's fascinating how this single death could send things into flux, in two ways:
1.) Potentially cause yet another war or smaller-scale crisis concerning succession rights in the kingdom. (With historians of the future no doubt "searching for patterns" between it and the War of the Roses. :rolleyes:) Though, as Youngmarshall notes, the people in charge of the monarchy would probably try their best to avoid another dynastic crisis of WOTR magnitude.
2.) Potentially butterfly away the creation of the Church or England and later Anglicanism. Quite huge, really.
 

Youngmarshall

Also Ireland is going to get some relief. The conquest only really started 10 years later and then because the throne was free from other distractions and could finally bring the irish to heel.

That's unlikely to happen now.
 

Reydan

Youngmarshall said:
Certainly the general fear of another round of the war of the roses breaking out dictated so much of how the english nobility behaved under henry vii and viii. The first thought on everyone's minds will be 'oh crap, another weak monarch'.

Henry vii spent his entire reign dogged by fears of pretenders and while the crowning of Henry viii was greeted as the end to that, there is a reason he was so obsessed with a male heir.
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Actually, this would probably have seen support for Mary grow. Remember there were a couple of MAJOR factors in her favour in 1524.

1. She is the rightful heir. That means hell of a lot in the Tudor period. Its not that simple to sweep her away. For those invoking War of the Roses, remember how both Richard III and Henry VII were dogged by the last child monarch "gotten rid of". Does England really want a whole series of Perkin Warbeck types claiming to be the real Mary Tudor?

2. James V is a non-starter. England just fought a major war with the Scots (that killed James IV). Replacing the rightful child heir with a Scottish child wouldn't garner much support.

3. Mary's mother, Catherine of Aragon, is INSANELY popular in Tudor England. Sometimes more than Henry VIII was. And she'd already (with Flodden) proven herself a competent regent and a military force to be reckoned with.

4. That leads on to - Charles V. Catherine's nephew, King of Spain and the Holy Roman Emperor, who in 1524 is engaged to Mary. The richest and most powerful man in the world at the time, with a vested interest in keeping England onside against France, might have something to say.

5. The Brandons are massive supporters of Catherine of Aragon. Maybe they force their way onto a regency council but I doubt they would make a play for the throne.

If you are looking for a pretender, your best bet his Henry's bastard Henry Fitzroy. He's five at the time.
 

Alpha Trion

This scenario works out for both Mary and England. Catherine of Aragon, who was popular with the English nobility, would be a formidable defender of her daughter’s rights. In TTL, Catherine would likely have been a member of a regency council composed of herself, Cardinal Wolsey, the Dukes of Norfolk and Suffolk, and possibly Thomas More. Charles V would honor his engagement to Mary due to her being Queen Regent in TTL. Catherine would support their marriage and the alliance with Spain. Charles and the regency council would likely negotiate a marriage treaty (similar to the one between Philip II of Spain and Mary in OTL) with a second son of Charles and Mary inheriting England, Ireland, and the Netherlands. Henry Fitzroy has no title or powerbase in 1524 and it would have been interesting to see just what Mary would have done to her brother.
 

mcdnab

As above - there is no real threat domestically or externally -

Mary is betrothed to her cousin Charles V at this point, England is still technically at war with France (Henry would in OTL sign a separate peace in 1525) - so she has strong foreign support.

Catherine of Aragon is popular and very capable, she will have Wolsey's support and more than likely the support of the Duke of Suffolk and his wife.

Margaret Tudor has just pulled of her coup in Scotland getting her son declared of age - she is also not likely to push given she has spent much of her adult life trying (and failing) to close the gap with England. Far more likely is she is going to push for a marriage between James V and Mary.

Away from the Tudor's the other claimants were all unlikely to rebel.

On the other claimants -
1) Catherine Countess of Devon - Henry's aunt is still living the only surviving daughter of Edward IV
2) Her son Henry Marquess of Exeter is of age but was loyal to Henry until after the reformation.
3) Margaret Pole Countess of Salisbury - daughter of Clarence - she was very close to Catherine of Aragon, was lady governor to the Princess Mary and devoted to her. Very unlikely rebel at this point.

After Margaret and her enormous brood - you would have in order the descendants of Edward IV's sisters - Anne St Leger Baroness de Ross (married with large number of children) - then finally Richard de La Pole (who died at Pavia in 1525).
 
The Professor

The Professor

Hmmm, so we have an initial engagement for Charles V, followed by James V as fallback.
France will certainly pull out all stops as it's now a genuine encirclement.
We could see frenchbought assassins strike in England and more support for DelaPole
 

Reydan

The Professor said:
Hmmm, so we have an initial engagement for Charles V, followed by James V as fallback.
France will certainly pull out all stops as it's now a genuine encirclement.
We could see frenchbought assassins strike in England and more support for DelaPole
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Francis I might actually try and push for a marriage between his daughter Madeleine and James V (as actually happened IOTL) for exactly the same reasons - encircle England.

Whether his mother would have been keen would have been another question though...

I actually think this timeline is the best possible course of events for Mary Tudor. I've always felt a bit sorry for her - when you look at her childhood and the events that ruined it shortly after this moment in time you sort of see why she was the way she was.

Could you call this timeline a Mary-wank?!
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

Donor
I can certainly see a de la Pole attempt - don't forget John (eldest brother) was named Richard III's heir in his lifetime.

You can also look at Exeter and Buckingham.

It depends who jumps to Mary's side, how this all works out, whether they can in fact stand each other etc. I don't honestly know if Catherine of Aragon would command support as Regent given 1) the powers of state of that office and 2) its implication in international relations.

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

mcdnab

No doubt Francis will use de la Pole as a threat to England - but probably with as much success as in our timeline. Incidentally his brother was never declared heir to the throne by Richard III - it is a misconception based loosely on John Earl of Lincoln being the only adult male closely related to Richard and the position he occupied during RIII's reign.

Buckingham is dead and his son is married to the daughter of the Countess of Salisbury (and isn't really in a position in terms of power, money and influence to challenge Mary Tudor even if he wanted to)

Exeter is more of a threat but again is i think unlikely to command any authority to rebel.

Much will depend on whether Mary's regent (which will probably be her mother supported by Wolsey and the Duke of Suffolk) makes any errors in the early days and if Wolsey's unpopularity causes problems - then you have more of an incentive to create rebellion though it is likely to be focused on the regent and council rather than Mary in person.

Her marriage is going to occupy Europe - and if as in OTL Charles V isn't willing to wait then he is going to pressure Catherine to follow his own choices in choosing a husband for her daughter and that might well be at odds with Wolsey (who tended to be pro-French) and the Scots.
 
Petike

Petike

If Mary was successfully betrothed to Charles V., and the wedding and later life went off without a hitch, the implications for European history could be indeed pretty massive. For one, England receiving ties between its royal dynasty and those of the Habsburgs, House Trastamára and the Hosue of Valois-Burgundy, is a pretty big deal. If no major breaks occur, you could get an England that has ties both to Spain and the then Holy Roman Empire, hilariously enough.

One can only wonder how this would affect the course of the domestic reformation in England, bearing in mind all the would-be reformists that existed in OTL before Henry decided to break with Rome.

And England's and Spain's later political animosity ? An ATL with a Mary and Charles V. alignment of England could make some drastic changes to how things panned out in OTL. Who knows how the relationship with Scotland will pan out, in light of the ATL situation.

I love that all of this could potentially occur because of a split-second occurence of worse aiming with a lance that proves fatal... :D

P.S. BTW, I've noticed a scenario like this was already discussed once here.
 
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