WI: Confederates win, but collapse?

Gan

Banned
As the tin says, what if the Confederates win the ACW, but collapse within the next decade?

Which states would form their own nations, which would group together, and which would try to rejoin the United States? Would the US allow them back into the Union? Would the US try to regain all of the states that rebelled, or leave them as they are?

Would other nations try to take advantage of the Balkanized CSA, either for territory or puppet state? Would the US do anything about it?

What would be the long-term consequences of this? How will this impact the remnants of the 19th Century and first half of the 21st? What will the region look like by 1900, 1950, and the 21st Century?
 
My thought is that Georgia would be one of the first ones to go, the governor of Georgia never seemed so keen about either side, and if the CSA won, would probably break off pretty quick. Not to mention, assuming that Sherman never came through, Atlanta is a decent capitol and Savannah is an excellent port, so Georgia would have the infastructure. Georgia would then go and colonize, since the soil in the actual state was getting worn out at the time.
 
My thought is that Georgia would be one of the first ones to go, the governor of Georgia never seemed so keen about either side, and if the CSA won, would probably break off pretty quick. Not to mention, assuming that Sherman never came through, Atlanta is a decent capitol and Savannah is an excellent port, so Georgia would have the infastructure. Georgia would then go and colonize, since the soil in the actual state was getting worn out at the time.


What has caused Georgia to do this?

What problems has it as part of the CSA which would be removed or in any way ameliorated by going it alone?
 
In my view Mexico would try and get back Texas.Maybe France could try and take back Louisiana and other Mississippi valley states on historic backgrounds.
I'm pretty sure the northern CSA would be taken over by the US.
I'm not sure whether Spain had the ressorces to try and take Florida.
 
TX would go it alone.

I could see VA and NC trying to rejoin the Union first, they had the most pro-Union types in their borders.
 
Virginia I think would go, but if the CSA dissolved, I think reintegration with the U.S. would be likely.
 
What does VA gain by rejoining the US - esp if the latter has abolished slavery?

I think that, of any rebel state, Virginia is the likeliest to try to abolish slavery. Also, it would probably get tired to gradually losing bits and pieces to de facto Union rule.
 
I think that, of any rebel state, Virginia is the likeliest to try to abolish slavery. Also, it would probably get tired to gradually losing bits and pieces to de facto Union rule.

I would disagree, and say that North Carolina is probably the most likely to rejoin the Union. Geographically, it would be harder, but there was a large split in the first place whether to join the CSA or not.

When Sherman went on his capital-burning-spree, he stopped at Raleigh, IIRC because he thought North Carolina was a Union state at heart (or something like that).
 
The US isn't in control of Texas though.

Doesn't matter. The US views Texas as its territory. They aren't going to let someone else take control of it. Now, they will probably do their best to retake the state while intervening (and no one can really stop them).

In my view Mexico would try and get back Texas.Maybe France could try and take back Louisiana and other Mississippi valley states on historic backgrounds.
I'm pretty sure the northern CSA would be taken over by the US.
I'm not sure whether Spain had the ressorces to try and take Florida.

No, no, no. The United States will still view this as their legitimate territory, and anyone attempting to retake will have to fight with them, a nation which is capable of raising some 3 million men if necessary. Only Britain has the resources to fight, and as usual they gain nothing by doing so.

I'd guess most of the borderline states and late seceeders (Arkansas, Texas, Tennessee, Virginia, and North Carolina) get reintegrated first, as their experiment outside the Union has now thoroughly failed. With the coming of the boll weevil their economies are also going to be in for a very thorough thrashing. Other southern states would probably be reintegrated by force.
 
May I point out that the USA's defeat has probably greatly reduced their strength? It could be possible for a coalition of France, Spain and Mexico to attack simultaneously the Southern CSA.
Afterwards, it depends on the date. Before or after 1870? Before 1870, France might get interested in Louisianne, but not afterwards - it will rather be scrambling for colonies.
 
May I point out that the USA's defeat has probably greatly reduced their strength? It could be possible for a coalition of France, Spain and Mexico to attack simultaneously the Southern CSA.
Afterwards, it depends on the date. Before or after 1870? Before 1870, France might get interested in Louisianne, but not afterwards - it will rather be scrambling for colonies.

Why would they do that?
 
Because they have the possibility and a claim : they did fight uselessly OTL in Mexico. Thye might as well do so in Louisiana.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
You need step one, however...

As the tin says, what if the Confederates win the ACW, but collapse within the next decade?

Unless you explain "how" the rebels win their independence, it is impossible to offer any sort of response - which, since confederate independence after everything else historical up to April, 1861 is less likely than a successful ZEELOWE with all else historical up to July, 1940, is a pretty significant problem.

Best,
 
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