AHC/WI: Axis Vichy France?

Basically what it says on the tin. This idea has been batted about a bit, but it never seems to have been explored in great detail.

What if, for whatever reason (maybe Hitler has a sudden burst of sanity, maybe after Mers-El-Kébir the pro-Axis elements of Petain's government manage to get the ball rolling, whatever) Vichy France transitions from an pro-Axis neutral state to a full blown co-belligerent/Axis Power? How does this affect the war, in both the short and the long term?

On a smaller scale, what would be the reaction of French civilian population? Would they go along with the deal, or would they defect en masse to the Free French forces? Would this a boon or a burden to De Gaulle's Free French forces? Post-war, how is France perceived?

Feel free to use whatever POD/combination of POD's to accomplish this, so long as it doesn't strain plausibility.

Kung Fucious said:

Basically what it says on the tin. This idea has been batted about a bit, but it never seems to have been explored in great detail.

What if, for whatever reason (maybe Hitler has a sudden burst of sanity, maybe after Mers-El-Kébir the pro-Axis elements of Petain's government manage to get the ball rolling, whatever) Vichy France transitions from an pro-Axis neutral state to a full blown co-belligerent/Axis Power? How does this affect the war, in both the short and the long term?

On a smaller scale, what would be the reaction of French civilian population? Would they go along with the deal, or would they defect en masse to the Free French forces? Would this a boon or a burden to De Gaulle's Free French forces? Post-war, how is France perceived?

Feel free to use whatever POD/combination of POD's to accomplish this, so long as it doesn't strain plausibility.

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I can't see this happening. Even though they were angry about what the British had done, Germany was their traditional enemy. They had been their main enemy since 1871.

However, if France makes the Axis a Berlin Paris Tokyo Rome Axis, France is unlikely to get a seat on the UNSC and they'd be tainted for joining up with the Nazis. It would also probably be carved up into sectors of occupation after the war.

The trouble is, as with Franco's Spain (but only more so), that Vichy France can gain nothing out of the deal with Nazi Germany. Unless Nazi Germany agrees to restore the French Republic in its borders of 1939 (yeah, right, while they are at it, why not restore Poland and Chezchoslovakia as well).

The loss the Vichy will almost certainly suffer is all the terriories outside of metropolitan France, with a fair number of these going to the Free French.

As for UNSC, why that would stop France from being a member? There is a discontinuity between the Vichy regime and the Fourth Republic, AFAIK? They were not basically viewed as the same country or at least regime?

probably helpful to have a neutral Italy (animosity and competing territorial interests there)

also my reading was the opening of Syria to German aircraft to supply Iraqi coup was trial run on cooperation, which of course ended badly for Vichy regime http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syria–Lebanon_Campaign

without Italians marching on Egypt maybe that coup doesn't even happen?

even if they sign an agreement though http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Protocols that doesn't mean the Vichy formally join the Axis

(note the French, perfect barometers on level of German success, got cold feet just after May 1941? Admiral Darlan probably had good grasp of what disaster awaited them in USSR)

believe the furthest they go is opening bases as outlined in their draft agreement. somewhere between Spain and Finland on cooperation level, not neutral any longer but not quite a co-belligerent?

Kung Fucious said:

Basically what it says on the tin. This idea has been batted about a bit, but it never seems to have been explored in great detail.

What if, for whatever reason (maybe Hitler has a sudden burst of sanity, maybe after Mers-El-Kébir the pro-Axis elements of Petain's government manage to get the ball rolling, whatever) Vichy France transitions from an pro-Axis neutral state to a full blown co-belligerent/Axis Power? How does this affect the war, in both the short and the long term?

On a smaller scale, what would be the reaction of French civilian population? Would they go along with the deal, or would they defect en masse to the Free French forces? Would this a boon or a burden to De Gaulle's Free French forces? Post-war, how is France perceived?

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If this involves some sort of normalization of life in France, including a better armistice, or a full peace treaty the intial support for Petains government would increase. The general population wanted a end to the dead economy & Germans soldiers of the Occupation.

The Germanophobes of French society would continue as such and continue thinking about revenge & redressing the negative aspects of whatever treaty settlement was imposed. Those would be similar to those whos goal was to restore French power completely.

There would be a major shift when Germany attacked the USSR. That action caused the leftitst supporters globally to cease a cooperative attitude towards Germany & relabel the nazi regime as a enemy. From the US, through occupied Europe & elsewhere Communists, socialists, & other left wingers would shift to working with other anti nazi or warhawk groups. Petains government would be loathe to respond to lefitst voters, but there would not be universal ethusiasim within France for fighting Germanys war. Support for the Free French will take a different character than in OTL.

If a French army or corps gets wrapped up in one of the winter defeats on the eastern front it will discourage the general support and undercut the pro German or anti communist crusade factions.

On the German side I see a serious problem in terms of military transport and French policy. OTL the 1941 attack on the USSR depended on the transfer of thousands of military and civilian automotive transport, and railroad rolling stock to German use. This further crippled the French economy. If the aim of a 1940-41 settlement with France is to create a viable ally very little transportation stock can be removed. That is a major set back for German operations in the east, and the German efforts to boost their own economy.

Carl Schwamberger said:

If this involves some sort of normalization of life in France, including a better armistice, or a full peace treaty the intial support for Petains government would increase. The general population wanted a end to the dead economy & Germans soldiers of the Occupation.


There would be a major shift when Germany attacked the USSR. That action caused the leftitst supporters globally to cease a cooperative attitude towards Germany & relabel the nazi regime as a enemy. From the US, through occupied Europe & elsewhere Communists, socialists, & other left wingers would shift to working with other anti nazi or warhawk groups. Petains government would be loathe to respond to lefitst voters, but there would not be universal ethusiasim within France for fighting Germanys war. Support for the Free French will take a different character than in OTL.

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on the other hand, with an agreement with France do you think it would strengthen German hand in dealings with USSR short of invasion?

meaning continued generous terms to stall any action against them?

thaddeus said:

meaning continued generous terms to stall any action against them?

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The problem here is not whether the Soviets will feel more generous. The problem is the stronger Germany gets, the more tempting the war against the USSR becomes.

Carl Schwamberger said:

On the German side I see a serious problem in terms of military transport and French policy. OTL the 1941 attack on the USSR depended on the transfer of thousands of military and civilian automotive transport, and railroad rolling stock to German use. This further crippled the French economy. If the aim of a 1940-41 settlement with France is to create a viable ally very little transportation stock can be removed. That is a major set back for German operations in the east, and the German efforts to boost their own economy.

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Other points aside, if Vichy France went full blown Axis member (as opposed to some kind of pro-Axis-but-nominally-neutral power, ala Francoist Spain), could the difference be offset by the French willingly providing the rolling stock? Surely if Vichy France is rolling into Russia alongside the Wehrmacht, they'd want to provide as much help as they can.

Kung Fucious said:

Basically what it says on the tin. This idea has been batted about a bit, but it never seems to have been explored in great detail.

What if, for whatever reason ... Vichy France transitions from an pro-Axis neutral state to a full blown co-belligerent/Axis Power? How does this affect the war, in both the short and the long term?

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Not going to try to achieve the PoD.

However, here's a potentially huge consequence: the intelligence service of the Vichy government was party to the ULTRA Secret - that is, to the systematic decoding of German Enigma-coded radio traffic.

Back in 1930, a French spy obtained a trove of documentation on Germany's newly acquired Enigma machine - operating manuals, message formats, even some sample messages with ciphertext and cleartext. He passed this to Polish intelligence; their cryptanalysts used it in making the initial break into Enigma.

The Poles read Enigma off and on right up to 1939 (when it was off). They handed over all their results to French and British intelligence, and when Poland was overrun, the codebreaking team escaped to France and went to work there under French sponsorship. In conjuction with the British team at Bletchley Park, they rebroke Enigma in early 1940. During the Battle of France, the Allies read several thousand Enigma messages, about half were decrypted by the Franco-Polish team.

The Poles were evacuated to Algeria. After the armistice, they were brought back to unoccupied France and went back to work on Enigma. This continued until the Germans moved into southern France after TORCH in 1942. Then they fled again.

I don't know who in the Vichy regime knew this was going on. One suspects the French spooks kept it to themselves. Pétain probably would not have understood if they did tell him. Laval and Darlan were too sleazy. And France was never part of the Axis as such. And of course the Poles wouldn't want the Germans to learn anything.

However, if Vichy actually joined the Axis, it seems probable that the secret would leak out or be given. If French forces are in action with the Germans, the breach in German security becomes a French problem. For instance, if French ships participate in a joint operation, German messages will reveal their movements and expose them to British attacks.

So the Germans get alerted to much of the weakness of their system. They fix those weaknesses, look for others and find some, fix those too. (Vide Gordon Welchman, who was a top man in Hut Six at Bletchley Park. He wrote later that if the Germans had ever done a proper critical examination of their system, they would have spotted several major flaws which Hut Six exploited in 1940-1942.)

Enigma goes dark for the rest of the war.

First, have Pétain die early on and be replaced by Laval. Laval was the kind of fanatical S.O.B that could consider an alliance with the Axis powers.
Pétain model was Franco, hardly surprising since Pétain had been ambassador in Spain circa 1925, and had known Franco at the time.
Pétain saw Vichy as neutral as Franco Spain, without realizing that, unlike Spain, France couldn't stay out of the conflict at all.

Hah, funny.

I am currently writing a TL which has an axis Vichy ...

I can't see Vichy joining the Axis if Britain and Germany are still at war. Say a bomb drops on Churchill during the early days of BoB and whoever succeeds him decides that the war has been lost and that accepting status quo is the best course of action. In that case the Free French movement will simply die out in a few years (However, internal Resistance would still continue as long as the German occupy France). Vichy France might then participate in Operation Barbarossa, so maybe 2 or 3 divisions for the axis more depending on how big their army is allowed to be. IIRC Petain offered to join provided that the French fight in their uniforms and colors, but Hitler refused, probably to not have Britain DOW them and invade their colonies prematurely.

Consequences for France would be minor in the short term. Communist resistance would likely target Vichy authorities while the others would only strike at Germans. There would be less Frenchmen working for germany's industry, so the Germans would have to recruit more from neutral countries (spain, portugal, ...) or use more forced labor in the East.

If Mers-el-Kebir, Dakar and/or the British occupation of Syria had led to Vichy France declaring war on the British Empire it would have a large impact on the war and might even alter the result. However, the French didn't so the British would have had to do something else to alienate them enough to change sides and the British weren't that stupid. Or were they?

France joining the Axis is very much like the recent Franco's Spain joins the Axis thread. That is the location of France and the French Empire makes as much difference as the participation of France in the war. Except because the French Empire, French armed forces and French industry are much bigger than Spain's so they could change the result of the war.

If Vichy France had joined the Axis in the second half of 1940 and no more French colonies went over to the Free French, then:

-The British would have forcibly taken most of the French Empire that was loyal to Vichy by the end of 1941. The exceptions would be the two most important ones, i.e. French North Africa and French West Africa. However, taking the Vichy colonies would have diverted resources from other operations.
-The Japanese still take French Indo-China and as Vichy is at war with the British Empire, I wonder how that would influence the reaction of the United States. That is would the USA still impose economic sanctions and would they be stronger or weaker?
-The Germans and Italians would use French North Africa as a base to attack the Western Mediterranean convoys to Malta more effectively. That probably means that all the supplies for Malta have to come via Alexandria, which all other things being equal leads to Malta surrendering in the first half of 1942.
-All the supplies that went to Tripoli would instead go to Tunis, a safer and shorter route. Thence they would be taken by rail to the Libyan border. That means more supplies get through to Rommel's army.
-Dakar would be a very useful naval base before the British finally took it and I don't expect that to be before the end of 1941. In the real world using the Biscay ports cut the transit times for the U-boats to their operating in the North Atlantic considerably. Dakar would have the same effect on the U-boats operating in the mid Atlantic, south Atlantic and Indian Ocean.

The Spanish armed forces were too weak to make a significant contribution to the war, but the French armed forces would have made a significant one provided the all the Vichy forces remained loyal.

Most of the French Navy remained loyal to Vichy in the real world. Furthermore Mers-el-Kebir and Operation Catapult give its men a good reason to want to fight the British. It had enough ships to make the Western Mediterranean an Axis lake until the end of 1942. Furthermore the cruisers outside the Mediterranean could run amok before the Royal Navy runs them down, that is provided they don't run out of fuel and ammunition first. The Germans would allow the French to complete the warships that were under construction in June 1940 and the French would probably make more progress with them than the Germans were able to in the real world. If the French merchant ships that went over to the British in June 1940 were able to make it to a Vichy port or scuttled themselves that would deprive the British of several million tons of merchant shipping. However, the biggest contribution would be made by the French submarines. They had 78 in September 1939 and another 38 under construction. They could have sunk millions of tons of British merchant ships to the end of 1942.

If Vichy had joined the Axis then the Germans could have maintained a smaller garrison in France. IIRC the Germans had 38 division in France and the Low Countries in June 1941. Some of them would be available for service on other fronts or the men weren't called up in the first place and remained in the factories. French soldiers would relieve Germans in most of the Flak units and the French Air Force would reinforce Luftflotte 3 or allow some Luftwaffe flying units to be sent to other fronts. French workers making arms for the French armed services are likely to do so more enthusiastically than in the real world when they were making them for the Germans.

Having France on their side might benefit the Axis in other ways. If France was at war with the British Empire in 1940 it might persuade Franco to declare war on the British Empire and that would make it easier to use the Strait of Gibraltar. However, it might make him think that Hitler can win the war without Spanish help and he will be able to get Gibraltar without a fight. Also Hitler and Mussolini can't promise to give French Colonies to Franco in return for Spanish participation in the war. On the other hand it might prevent the anti-Axis coup in Yugoslavia avoiding the need for Germany to invade and occupy the country.

Therefore Germany and Italy would be in a much stronger position with Vichy France on their side. They might even have won the Battle of the Atlantic in 1941 or 1942.

NOMISYRRUC said:

If Vichy France had joined the Axis in the second half of 1940 and no more French colonies went over to the Free French, then:

-The British would have forcibly taken most of the French Empire that was loyal to Vichy by the end of 1941. The exceptions would be the two most important ones, i.e. French North Africa and French West Africa. However, taking the Vichy colonies would have diverted resources from other operations.

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Unless the colonies say "Sc*ew you Vichy, we will not fight for the Germans."

NOMISYRRUC said:

-The Japanese still take French Indo-China and as Vichy is at war with the British Empire, I wonder how that would influence the reaction of the United States. That is would the USA still impose economic sanctions and would they be stronger or weaker?

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They would. The sole point of Japanese expanding south would be to gain better strategic position for the later attack. And the US would want to forestall that.

NOMISYRRUC said:

-The Germans and Italians would use French North Africa as a base to attack the Western Mediterranean convoys to Malta more effectively. That probably means that all the supplies for Malta have to come via Alexandria, which all other things being equal leads to Malta surrendering in the first half of 1942.?

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How are the Italians and the Germans basing their forces there? They had pretty much trouble basing them in NA they owned, let alone where they didn't. How would they supply those forces? To build up sufficient LW presence in Tunisia and Morroco would take months without interference. And there sure would be.

NOMISYRRUC said:

-All the supplies that went to Tripoli would instead go to Tunis, a safer and shorter route. Thence they would be taken by rail to the Libyan border. That means more supplies get through to Rommel's army.

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For as long as Rommel army lingers around Tripoli.

NOMISYRRUC said:

-Dakar would be a very useful naval base before the British finally took it and I don't expect that to be before the end of 1941. In the real world using the Biscay ports cut the transit times for the U-boats to their operating in the North Atlantic considerably. Dakar would have the same effect on the U-boats operating in the mid Atlantic, south Atlantic and Indian Ocean.

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Without doubt. As long as the Axis can actually ship supplies to Dakar.

NOMISYRRUC said:

The Spanish armed forces were too weak to make a significant contribution to the war, but the French armed forces would have made a significant one provided the all the Vichy forces remained loyal.

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Operative clause bolded.

NOMISYRRUC said:

Most of the French Navy remained loyal to Vichy in the real world.

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So long as there was no danger of German take over.

NOMISYRRUC said:

Furthermore Mers-el-Kebir and Operation Catapult give its men a good reason to want to fight the British.

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Which is why parents of a sailor killed in Mers-el-Kebir asked he be buried in a coffin covered with the French and the British flag.

NOMISYRRUC said:

It had enough ships to make the Western Mediterranean an Axis lake until the end of 1942. Furthermore the cruisers outside the Mediterranean could run amok before the Royal Navy runs them down, that is provided they don't run out of fuel and ammunition first.

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Yep. Operative clause again.

NOMISYRRUC said:

The Germans would allow the French to complete the warships that were under construction in June 1940 and the French would probably make more progress with them than the Germans were able to in the real world. If the French merchant ships that went over to the British in June 1940 were able to make it to a Vichy port or scuttled themselves that would deprive the British of several million tons of merchant shipping. However, the biggest contribution would be made by the French submarines. They had 78 in September 1939 and another 38 under construction. They could have sunk millions of tons of British merchant ships to the end of 1942.

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Provided they stay loyal. Provided they have torpedoes. Provided they are more efficient than the German u-boats. And millions? On what is this based?

NOMISYRRUC said:

If Vichy had joined the Axis then the Germans could have maintained a smaller garrison in France. IIRC the Germans had 38 division in France and the Low Countries in June 1941. Some of them would be available for service on other fronts or the men weren't called up in the first place and remained in the factories. French soldiers would relieve Germans in most of the Flak units and the French Air Force would reinforce Luftflotte 3 or allow some Luftwaffe flying units to be sent to other fronts. French workers making arms for the French armed services are likely to do so more enthusiastically than in the real world when they were making them for the Germans.

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Unless the Allies decide that it would be nice to land in France which the occupiers have left to fend off for themselves. Hell, there probably wouldn't need to be oposed landing.. Simply sail in Brest or Cherbourg and disembark troops to the sounds of La Marseillese.

NOMISYRRUC said:

Having France on their side might benefit the Axis in other ways. If France was at war with the British Empire in 1940 it might persuade Franco to declare war on the British Empire and that would make it easier to use the Strait of Gibraltar. However, it might make him think that Hitler can win the war without Spanish help and he will be able to get Gibraltar without a fight. Also Hitler and Mussolini can't promise to give French Colonies to Franco in return for Spanish participation in the war.

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Pretty much. Franco asked for colonies and asked for more economic aid than Germans could give. Whatever Vichy do, Franco stays out.

NOMISYRRUC said:

On the other hand it might prevent the anti-Axis coup in Yugoslavia avoiding the need for Germany to invade and occupy the country.

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So???

NOMISYRRUC said:

Therefore Germany and Italy would be in a much stronger position with Vichy France on their side. They might even have won the Battle of the Atlantic in 1941 or 1942.

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Why would they be in so much better position?

Kung Fucious said:

Other points aside, if Vichy France went full blown Axis member (as opposed to some kind of pro-Axis-but-nominally-neutral power, ala Francoist Spain), could the difference be offset by the French willingly providing the rolling stock? Surely if Vichy France is rolling into Russia alongside the Wehrmacht, they'd want to provide as much help as they can.

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Rolling stock/transport? The numbers dont add up. In early 1941 France was stripped to the point it further damaged the economy. If the vehicle was not suitable for military service it replaced a civilian vehicle in Germany that could be used in the East.

Same thing applies when French combat units are used in the East. The railroads representing the Axis LOC were inadaquate, and there were not enough automobiles in Europe to fill the gap.

Over the long haul of several years French industry could assist , hypotheticaly. Questions about resources, fuel, ect... would need to be examined.

Archibald said:

First, have Pétain die early on and be replaced by Laval. Laval was the kind of fanatical S.O.B that could consider an alliance with the Axis powers.
Pétain model was Franco, hardly surprising since Pétain had been ambassador in Spain circa 1925, and had known Franco at the time.
Pétain saw Vichy as neutral as Franco Spain, without realizing that, unlike Spain, France couldn't stay out of the conflict at all.

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Laval had his limits as a French leader. First off he represented just a portion of the citizens, the portion of the right who were not also anti German. The large portion of the population who despised Germany had little sympathy with Lavals collaborationist policies.

Second was the anti war sentiment. It took a couple years of occupation to get the French really fired up, & then their fight was aimed at the Germans.

Third, returns back the leftists & centerists in France. The anti communist crusade ran directly against the grain of nearly a third of the population, and more were indifferent. Add that to the Germanophobe sentiment & Laval could not depend on the clear support of more than a quarter o the population should he take France back into the war as a Axis partner.

We need to remember that France had no equivalent to the Gestapo in 1941, and had not been suppressing political opposition and its citizens for eight years. Opposition within France will be a different animal from that in Germany in 1941 or 42.

NOMISYRRUC said:

I... Furthermore Mers-el-Kebir and Operation Catapult give its men a good reason to want to fight the British. ...

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The Allies killed some 250,000 French citizens in Europe & maimed well over one million, mostly by bombing French cities. Yet they were still more welcome than the Germans in 1944.

I said it was very unlikely that Vichy would join the Axis.

However, the question was, what was the effect of France joining the Axis? It was not, how do you get the French to join the Axis?

I stand by every word I wrote. If anything I was being too conservative on the difference it would make.

Something like a Laval government throwing in with the Axis, as a active warring partner, most likely leads to other French leaders breaking away sooner. That is Lavals appointees in the colonies govenorships will have a tougher time keeping control of their subordinates.

Within France the resistance would be even more heavily communist dominated, and aimed at the pro Axis government since there would be few Germans there to attack.

A economic side effect might be the Germans losing accesses to dirt cheap consumer goods. When the occupation started in 1940 Germany created a artificial & highly favorable exchange rate. The western occupied nations were flooded with German soldiers and businessmen with Reichmarks of high purchasing power. They brought a flood of luxury items & other consumer items back home for use & resale. Beating up France & Belgium that way is not conducive to having a happy ally, & the alternatives are much less attractive to the Nazi regime.

Operationally in the east it would be best to send motor/mechanized French ground units. They had a lot of them in 1940, more than the Germans & several corps worth could have been salvaged absent German looting or interference. A few of the French tanks like the S35 or H39 would have been of value in the east in 1941 & less so in 1942. Maybe in 42 some newer tanks, like the B3, the G model, or the SP artillery would be built. All those were in the prototype stage in 1940 & at least small numbers could have been built in 1941-42. Longer range 105mm & 155mm caliber guns would have been best for the east. France had enough modern models of those to outfit two or three corps. Since none of this solves the fundamental supply transport problem it might be best to substitute these motorized French corps for German horse equipped units. that offsets

If any of the air force is intact & capable of moving east then that might be more useful than ground forces.

Question, if France government rallies the axis, could we see a large scale mutiny in the French army?
I mean, a lot of Pétain's rethoric was that he was the shield of France against complete invasion, which probably kept a lot of people in check. But if they rally, that could be a spark that would make a lot of the army either go the colonies (which would probably declare themselves part of Free France) or go into open rebellion.

Is that a possibility?