AHC/WI: Red Germany

A few times while reading about Stalin, I've come across mentions of his intent to turn Germany communist, in the belief that German industry and Soviet manpower would be enough to "Liberate" Europe at the very least. Which is why Soviet agents gave the Nazis a boost, because of a misguided belief that the Nazis would fail and create the exact vacuum the KPD needed.

So, is it possible to get Germany to become communist and stay communist during the interwar era? And once Germany is communist, what happens? Will there relations with the Kremlin really be that solid, or is there a possibility of something similar to the Sino-Soviet split? And of course, the big question, is there still a WWII and how might it develop?
 
First we need to get rid of Hitler. Keeping him locked up by having a harsher sentence, or having him banned from Germany or executed will likely take care of the Nazis nicely, especially if they remain under the care taking of Rosenberg. I don't really see anyone else having the draw Hitler did out of the party.

As the interwar period wore on, Germans increasingly fled to the extremes. Keeping that same as OTL would have people fleeing to the Communist Party, but you would need a draw that makes more people go Left than Right.
 
Are we including potential survivals of the Bavarian Soviet Republic and successful Spartacists or not?

Alternatively, the bullet that killed Scheubner-Richter could instead land in Hitler (just make sure the damn thing kills him instantaneously ;)), and the Nazis never quite congregate around another such figure, having dispersed into Austria or simply having gone underground. The pseudo-fascist movements such as Stahlhelm also fail to gain the same sort of ground the Nazis ever did, and the KPD unseats the Social Democrats after the Depression hits Germany hard.

What would the knock-on effects be on Austria, Italy and especially Spain? Would the German Soviet Republic lend aid to the Republicans and have ambitions of Anschluss in the least?
 

Raunchel

Banned
How about Hitler or someone like him not turning to the right but to the far left?
That gives the kpd a charismatic leader to draw more voters. Or of course you could have Hitler failing completely giving the communists a chance.
 

Sulemain

Banned
How about a Luxembuorgist Left-Communist Germany opposed to Lennist totalitarianism and the western powers?
 

Deleted member 1487

Its extremely difficult to get a Red Germany without a pre-1900 POD; Germany was far too conservative/middle class to go for something like that. I suppose you could have a more stupid German upper class go for an longer war and get a worse uprising in 1918-19 that may get you there, but then the Allies invade and topple them; even if Germany could get a Soviet government the Allies would never tolerate it.
 
IIRC both Hitler and Mussolini were Socialists earlier in their lives. But correct me if I'm wrong about that.

There was a split in many countries where the Reds (or at least, radical socialists) and Fascists divided out of the same original party. That's what happened in France certainly. Plus, the party names are also a clue (National Socialist German Workers Party). They certainly fancied themselves socialists.

If we remove Hitler, could a similarly charismatic leader expand the KPD's horizons?

I know the German middle class was relatively conservative, but could a lack of convincing alternatives and economic failure eventually drive them to the KPD in the absence of the Nazis?
 

Deleted member 1487

There was a split in many countries where the Reds (or at least, radical socialists) and Fascists divided out of the same original party. That's what happened in France certainly. Plus, the party names are also a clue (National Socialist German Workers Party). They certainly fancied themselves socialists.

If we remove Hitler, could a similarly charismatic leader expand the KPD's horizons?

I know the German middle class was relatively conservative, but could a lack of convincing alternatives and economic failure eventually drive them to the KPD in the absence of the Nazis?
That's the thing, without the Nazis there would have been the Strassers and Rohm, who were both actual socialists and were serious about their nationalist socialist revolution, instead of the corporate/elite friendly Hitler. Actually removing Hitler by assassination after assuming power in 1933 could see actual national socialists take over the party and assume power, but the elite would fight back, which IOTL was why they were purged as a threat to the old order. So you could get a Brown Germany in the form of an SA revolution, though it would in many ways be a 'Red' movement; the joke was that the SA movement were Beef Steaks (brown on the outside, red on the inside), so if in charge would actually overthrow the old order rather than accommodate it like Hitler did.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernst_Röhm#Second_revolution
Along with Gregor and Otto Strasser, Joseph Goebbels, Gottfried Feder and Walther Darré, Röhm was a prominent member of the party's radical faction. This group put emphasis on the word "socialist" and "workers" in the party's name; putting them ideologically closer to the Communists. They largely rejected capitalism (which they associated with Jews) and pushed for nationalization of major industrial firms, expansion of worker control, confiscation and redistribution of the estates of the old aristocracy, and social equality. Röhm spoke of a "second revolution" against the "Reaktion" (the National Socialist label for conservatives) to follow the violent Nazi "first revolution" purging of left-wing Communists and Socialists.

All this was threatening to the business community in general and Hitler's corporate financial backers in particular, including many German industrial leaders (which, the leaders hoped, would reap huge profits from the coming Nazi military buildup); so Hitler swiftly reassured his powerful industrial allies that there would be no "second revolution." Many "storm troopers" were of working-class origins and expected a radical program. They were now disappointed by the new regime's lack of socialistic direction and its failure to provide the lavish patronage they had expected. Furthermore, Röhm and his SA colleagues thought of their force as the core of the future German army, replacing the Reichswehr and its longstanding professional officer corps. By this time, the SA had swollen to over three million men, dwarfing the Reichswehr, which was limited to 100,000 men by the Treaty of Versailles. Although Röhm had been a member of the officer corps, he viewed them as "old fogies" who lacked "revolutionary spirit." He believed that the Reichswehr should be merged into the SA to form a true "people's army" under his command. At a February 1934 cabinet meeting, he demanded that the Reichswehr be absorbed into the SA under his leadership as Minister of Defense.[8][6]
 
Interesting, how would these "steaks" interact internationally? Would they be willing to align with the Soviets? And would they still pursue Anschluss and annexation of ethnic German areas?

Alternately, what if Hitler continues to delay ending the SA and Hindenburg does declare martial law?
 
Gotta agree with wiking there. Unlike France, Germany didn't have a long tradition of lower class-based riots before 1918, which may be the reason why at the height of the economic crisis the highest KPD result was only around 17%. I think it was Steven Spender who wrote that communism had mass followings only in Catholic and Orthodox countries. But there are other possibilities:

1) very short-lived coups, such as with the Bavarian Soviet Republic in 1919. Maybe instead of Bavaria it might work better in industrial areas. I'd say either Berlin, Hamburg or the Halle-Leipzig area (those were the remaining SPD/KPD strongholds in the last free elections in 1933)

2) some form of cooperation between SPD and KPD, like in OTL Saxony and Thuringia in 1923. Maybe an actual unity front between both parties in the early 1930s, leading to a united government against the NSDAP and DNVP.

However, both scenarios require an independently working KPD not led by Thälmann and the Komintern! Maybe with a more "federalist" Komintern, the German KPD (dominated largely by middle-class intellectuals before the merger with the USPD left-wing) might become more parlamentarian, if people like Paul Levi, Clara Zetkin, Heinrich Brandler or Rose Wolfstein are in charge.
 
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Gotta agree with wiking there. Unlike France, Germany didn't have a long tradition of lower class-based riots before 1918, which may be the reason why at the height of the economic crisis the highest KPD result was only around 17%. I think it was Steven Spender who wrote that communism had mass followings only in Catholic and Orthodox countries. But there are other possibilities:

1) very short-lived coups, such as with the Bavarian Soviet Republic in 1919. Maybe instead of Bavaria it might work better in industrial areas. I'd say either Berlin, Hamburg or the Halle-Leipzig area (those were the remaining SPD/KPD strongholds in the last free elections in 1933)

2) some form of cooperation between SPD and KPD, like in OTL Saxony and Thuringia in 1923. Maybe an actual unity front between both parties in the early 1930s, leading to a united government against the NSDAP and DNVP.

However, both scenarios require an independently working KPD not led by Thälmann and the Komintern! Maybe with a more "federalist" Komintern, the German KPD (dominated largely by middle-class intellectuals before the merger with the USPD left-wing) might become more parlamentarian, if people like Paul Levi, Clara Zetkin, Heinrich Brandler or Rose Wolfstein are in charge.

Hmm, how would such a SPD/KPD or non-Komintern KPD government govern? Would they eventually try and ban the other parties? Or would they try and keep semi-free elections?
 

Deleted member 1487

Hmm, how would such a SPD/KPD or non-Komintern KPD government govern? Would they eventually try and ban the other parties? Or would they try and keep semi-free elections?

The problem with the communists and socialists is that they are internationalist movements, doubly so once the USSR is around, as it provides the international support they need to get anywhere. But by being in league with the USSR they lose German public opinion. The SPD was a bourgeois party that was not set on revolution, which is why the party split at the end of WW1 and why when they governed in the 1920s they really didn't achieve much in the way of actual leftist policies. The KPD would not work with the SPD because of their history dating back to 1918, so they would have to go for autocracy rather than any form of elections to cement their rule by force.
 
Hmm, how would such a SPD/KPD or non-Komintern KPD government govern? Would they eventually try and ban the other parties? Or would they try and keep semi-free elections?

That's the puzzle. There are no proper equivalents in OTL, except for some Indian states post-1947.

With politicians who were socialised in parliamentary politics and have a deeper insight into the German electorate's psyche than Trotsky and Stalin had, they'd keep the system intact for a while. The focus would be put on nationalisation of major industries, higher taxation, education (including a re-writing of the history books) and, in foreign policy, an alliance with the Soviet Union. I guess the moderates would make a compromise to work with the old Wilhelminian administration, but there'd be a radical wing (of the Fischer/Maslow/Thälmann type) pushing for a proper revolution. The moderates know that if they go too far, they could be wiped out in the next election or even get ousted by a coup. They also can't risk alienation from the Western powers, so they'd have to be extremely cautious to stay in power.
 
I think the only shot you have is a POD towards the end of WWI that destabilizes Germany further in terms of civilian supply collapse/extending the pain of war. Beyond that it butterflies everything: the Soviet Union will not look the same, obviously Germany won't, it also depends how other countries react. Poland will fall to both, the Baltics will too, probably can bet on Czechoslovakia and Hungary (under Bela Kun), but who else? Finland, Belgium, Austria and the Balkans are question marks. Italian socialists are likely to radicalize further and attempt a revolution. There may be uprisings in France and Britain, though they'd be put down. Japan and the US will be more insulated from the events, though a red Germany is going to galvanize workers there. Also, what policies would Germany and the USSR take? There's a lot up in the air here.
 

tenthring

Banned
I don't see the Germans or many outside powers allowing a communist revolution. Few people remember that Hitler, while pretty hated by Germany's elite, at least saw him as a "moderate" Nazi. The SA goons scared them, as well as the obviously Soviet backed KPD. If any of them were about to take over military crackdown and outside intervention were likely. It was considered with the Nazi's as well. One of the reasons for the Night of the Long Knives was to purge the Nazi party of the radical elements that frightened the German army.
 

Raunchel

Banned
I don't see the Germans or many outside powers allowing a communist revolution. Few people remember that Hitler, while pretty hated by Germany's elite, at least saw him as a "moderate" Nazi. The SA goons scared them, as well as the obviously Soviet backed KPD. If any of them were about to take over military crackdown and outside intervention were likely. It was considered with the Nazi's as well. One of the reasons for the Night of the Long Knives was to purge the Nazi party of the radical elements that frightened the German army.

Yes, but the army was a shadow of what it used to be, limited by Versailles. I imagine that such a small force could actually be removed. And the western powers are unlikely to intervene directly, in the interbellum they don't have the will or the strength to intervene in Germany, the Great War was too close to do so. And foreign intervention would also cause large problems in their own countries, which also contained large groups of communists. The common people also wouldn't support another war against Germany just to change the way they do things there.
 

Deleted member 1487

Yes, but the army was a shadow of what it used to be, limited by Versailles. I imagine that such a small force could actually be removed. And the western powers are unlikely to intervene directly, in the interbellum they don't have the will or the strength to intervene in Germany, the Great War was too close to do so. And foreign intervention would also cause large problems in their own countries, which also contained large groups of communists. The common people also wouldn't support another war against Germany just to change the way they do things there.

:confused:
The Allies occupied the Rheinland throughout the 1920s and didn't fully leave Germany until the early 1930s. The French reinvaded in 1923 when Germany defaulted on ToV payments. If Germany went communist they were far more likely to intervene, perhaps even with Poland, as they weren't keen on being surrounded by hostile powers. Britain was far more willing to fight communists than fascists; remember IOTL Chamberlain was actively courting Hitler as an ally against Stalin right up until May 1939.
http://www.amazon.com/Low-Dishonest...=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1245276579&sr=8-1

As to the Reichswehr yes it was small, but it was supplemented by the militarized German police and clandestine militias that would have enabled them to expand by a large factor and then bring heavy weapons to bear that the Nazis and KPD did not have, including military aircraft that they were not supposed to have. The army lied in 1932 when they said they could not stop a Nazi armed rebellion to pressure the German government to make a deal with the far right and head off more KPD electoral gains.
 
IIRC both Hitler and Mussolini were Socialists earlier in their lives. But correct me if I'm wrong about that.
There are many different strands of 'socialist' but, effectively, Hitler abhorred bolshevism or revolutionary socialism. Others have touched upon the Nazi parties' expulsion of the Strasserists, the left-wing of the party, but for more information you only have to look up the Night of the Long Knives to see what Hitler's response to any 'socialists' within his party was.

Mussolini is a different story because he was genuinely in the PSI. But Italian socialism didn't have the traditional historic background of British or German socialism and it was very much a party influenced by syndicalism, reformism and elitism. There's a lot played up about Mussolini being made editor of Avanti but by 1911 readership had plummeted to only 10,000 and the editorship had passed hands between Bissolati (who was later expelled and went on to form the Reformist Socialist Party), Treves and later Bacci. When Bacci gave up the position they tried to get first Salvermini and then Serrati to take over but neither wanted to job and then they offered it to Mussolini who's writing, according to Gwyn Williams, "was steeped in pseudo-Sorelian notions; reflected Pareto's new theory of 'elites'. He threw open the journal to non-party activists, the syndicalists in particular". He was a controversial figure but largely appealed to a layer of young workers who were frustrated with the reformist turn of the PSI and the failures of the large trade union the CGL. Soon after he was expelled from the PSI, he was virtually bankrolled by the Perrone brothers, owners of Ansaldo, amongst other capitalists. His ideas were populist and lacked any socialist coherency.
 
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