AHC: Ainumoshiri

Sycamore · Apr 27, 2015

Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to have a TL where the domain of the Ainu people, Ainu Moshir (encompassing Hokkaido, Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands) is established as a single self-governing nation, and retains (or regains) its unified independence to the present day. What would be the best POD to bring this about? And what might the repercussions be in such a TL?

EDIT: Bonus points if this Ainu nation also encompasses Northern Honshu, and becomes a greater world power ITTL than Japan did IOTL.

Qhapaq Inka · Apr 27, 2015

This is extremely challenging to do, but the best POD would be to butterfly away the arrival in the Japanese islands of the mainland newcomers in the Yayoi period, starting around 300 BC. If this component of the OTL Japanese ethnicity remained on the mainland - in Korea or Manchuria, as much of the archaeological and linguistic evidence indicates - then potentially the Ainu (and whatever other Jomon-period ethnic groups may have existed) could have continued to occupy the Japanese islands and maybe taken the place of Japan in this ATL. There would likely still be heavy influence from Chinese civilization, but the specifics of *Japan would be based on Ainu/Jomon culture rather than OTL Japanese culture. At the same time, Korea and Manchuria would likely be more ethnically/culturally/linguistically diverse in this timeline, potentially including cultural and linguistic forms recognizable as Korean and Japanese, or at least close relatives. So, assuming a pre-Yayoi POD of 300 BC or earlier, we would at least create the conditions necessary for a TL that meets the OP's specifications.

adamu_kun · Apr 27, 2015

^^ What he said ^^

Any POD later than the start of the Heian period would be too late to have this happen. Unfortunately there aren't too many historical records about what happened in the Jomon and Yayoi periods, other than a few references to what would become Japan from the Han dynasty, so a lot of what would need to happen is open to speculation.

Somehow stopping the migrations from the Korean peninsula would definitely help. There were still a number of Polynesian immigrations into what would become the genetic soup that resulted in the modern Japanese ethnicity, but Polynesian migrants often mixed or co-existed with existing populations. The existence of a number of aboriginal races on Taiwan to this day kind of shows that. So chances are, they would have co-existed or got themselves absorbed into the Ainu.

Sycamore · Apr 27, 2015

^^
So, no-one thinks that any of the later Ainu rebellions could have plausibly been successful (Koshamain's Revolt in 1456, and Shakushain's Revolt from 1669-1672?)

And there's another interesting possibility, later on; IOTL, a private merchant from Yakutsk by the name of Pavel Lebedev-Lastoschkin was enlisted as a volunteer for a mission to help the Tsardom of Russia open Japan at far less cost to the government than if they had sent official emissaries or military forces; seeking the profits from either Japanese trade goods or furs from Hokkaidō. His first attempt failed entirely when his ship sank in the Sea of Okhotsk. But he, along with another merchant named Grigory Shelikhov, was granted trade monopoly over the Kuril Islands. The plan was to sail to Uruppu, one of the islands, with an expedition crew and about 40 settlers. They would set up a small colony town near Uruppu, try to integrate the local Ainu population and enlist their services to guide them down to Japan. This second expedition failed as well when, after reaching Uruppu in the summer of 1775, the ship sank in a storm.

Lastochkin tried yet again, this time bringing a number of extra ships. It was now 1778, and the expedition met with the Lords of Matsumae clan, the Japanese guardians of the northern borders, for the first time. They bestowed gifts upon the samurai lords, and asked to trade. The samurai informed Lastochkin's party that they did not have the authority to make such agreements on behalf of the Shogun, but that they should return the following year. Upon doing so in September 1779, Lastochkin's gifts were returned, he was forbidden to return to Hokkaido, and informed that if he wished to trade, he should inquire at Nagasaki, on the southern island of Kyūshū, and inconveniently far from Russian holdings.

Latoschkin returned to Uruppu to plan his next move (where a trading outpost had still been established, in spite of the lack of settlers)- but at this point, an earthquake caused a massive tsunami in June 1780, which stranded the main Russian trade vessel some distance inland and destroying the Russian trade outpost. This finally convinced Latoschkin to give up on seeking trade with Japan, and he finally accepted failure in his efforts to open Japan to Russian trade. But this offers a few potential POD's- for instance, WI the Matsumae Clan had decided to make the agreements to trade with the Russians, effectively breaking away from the Shogunate?

Or, WI Lastochkin had decided to establish his private company's suzerainty over the Ainu tribal kingdoms anyway- encompassing the Kuril Islands, Sakhalin and the vast majority of Hokkaido (with only the Matsumae Peninsula under the control of the Matsumae clan, and with the vast majority of Hokkaido effectively serving as an Ainu reservation until after the Meiji Restoration)? Or WI the Russian colonial vessel hadn't been sunk in the storm, and a colony town had been established on Uruppu as originally planned (with more colonial settlers arriving to boost their numbers, and other colony villages being established on a couple of other islands)?

Couldn't it be plausible in such a scenario, where the Russians take control of the Ainu and their homeland of Moshir during the Great Game (before the Meiji Restoration gives Japan the chance to do so), for TTL's Ainu Moshir to be established as a single self-governing nation, and to gain/regain its unified independence by the present day, in a similar manner to Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan?

adamu_kun · Apr 27, 2015

Sycamore said:
-SNIP-

It could certainly raise some interesting PODs, but I don't think that the Matsumae clan were ever going to subvert the Shogunate. I'm pretty sure that Matsumae was the only daimyo to not have to participate in the sankin-kotai hostage system that kind of squashed any potential of rebellion. And they didn't have to pay the annual rice tax to the Shogunate, not a single koku AFAIK. So trade was never going to happen with the Matsumae.

My own take on that is that the Matsumae were probably interested in it. From the arrival of Francis Xavier right up until the Russian trade mission (and afterwards), Westerners were known as 'nanban' (southern barbarians) because they always came from the south. Hence Dejima in Nagasaki being set up as the only permissible trading post. The sudden arrival of what could have been described as 'hokuban' (northern barbarians) who claimed to come from north of Japan would have perhaps given the Matsumae clan the opportunity to salivate over getting very rich through trade, not to mention the potential of having a Western ally to help quell any future Ainu rebellions. However, given their complete loyalty to the Shogunate, they had to defer to Edo and of course, the answer was no. And quite understandably as well, the Matsumae were rich (ruling over an untaxed 'kuni' and not having to undertake the rather expensive sankin-kotai (kept other daimyo poorer and unable to maintain a threatening army). Trade with the Russians would only make them richer, give them access to Western arms and, with the most recent combat experience (against the Ainu), this would result into a potential threat against the Tokugawa.

Also, the Russians were looking to control the Ainu and integrate them into the Russian trading posts. So I don't think that this would really give rise to an Ainu country of any kind. If anything it would integrate some nearby Ainu tribes with any Russian presence, but not all of them and this would only result in some stronger resistance during the colonization of Hokkaido during the 19th Century.

But the PODs your scenario raises are interesting. If the Shogunate had allowed the Matsumae to trade with the Russians, would this have led to a stronger Matsumae clan which may have helped support the Shogunate during its fall in the years after the arrival of Perry's Black Ships? And would this have allowed a modernized shogunate to remain in power? Alternatively, would this have driven the Matsumae to press any advantage they may have had in weaponry against the Ainu and conduct some form of 18th or early-19th Century ethnic cleansing and early colonization of Hokkaido? Another thing that could happen with the opening of a northern port like Hakodate to trade, would this encourage other countries to come and try to trade with Japan rather than go through Nagasaki and would this have led to earlier calls to modernize Japan?

A successful Russian trade mission raises a lot of very interesting possibilities and divergencies. However, I'm not fully sold on it leading to the establishment of an Ainu nation, as the Ainu were never united enough to form a solid nation-like state of their own in Hokkaido. Unless of course they were resisting Russian incursions, but that would only lead to further suppressions by both the Matsumae (trying to look good in front of the Shogunate and all other Daimyo) and the Russians.

I think perhaps if something had happened earlier to create more unity amongst all the Ainu then a country could be feasible, but as they were co-existing tribes, each with their own rules, this never happened and is unlikely with any POD. It's the same reason the aborigines on Taiwan never united and created an island-wide nation state before the first Ming-dynasty migrations, or the Dutch or Spanish and why they did not create a unified nation after Koxinga invaded. It's also why they were never really fully pacified until Japanese rule from 1895 onwards, as even if one tribe had its head cut off, there were many more scattered around all over the place (it's also why the whole of Taiwan never fully came under Chinese rule). Same is true of Hokkaido (or Ezo as it was before Meiji). To unite the Ainu as an enemy or an ally to work with would have needed a much stronger Russian presence. So maybe a way of getting this to work is to have a strong Russian delegation and military presence visit the Matsumae, similar to Perry's Black Ships sailing into Edo Bay 70 years or so later.

democracy101 · Apr 27, 2015

I've thought about doing this in my TL, although I haven't fully implemented it yet.

In brief, the unification of the peninsula under Goguryeo in 458 (with a PoD in AD 395) allows Korea to gradually gain control over the archipelago up to southern Honshū for several centuries. This in turn enables the Emshi/Ainu to consolidate themselves through indirect Korean influence, enabling them to resist a later push north from the Yamato.

Qhapaq Inka said:
This is extremely challenging to do, but the best POD would be to butterfly away the arrival in the Japanese islands of the mainland newcomers in the Yayoi period, starting around 300 BC. If this component of the OTL Japanese ethnicity remained on the mainland - in Korea or Manchuria, as much of the archaeological and linguistic evidence indicates - then potentially the Ainu (and whatever other Jomon-period ethnic groups may have existed) could have continued to occupy the Japanese islands and maybe taken the place of Japan in this ATL. There would likely still be heavy influence from Chinese civilization, but the specifics of *Japan would be based on Ainu/Jomon culture rather than OTL Japanese culture. At the same time, Korea and Manchuria would likely be more ethnically/culturally/linguistically diverse in this timeline, potentially including cultural and linguistic forms recognizable as Korean and Japanese, or at least close relatives. So, assuming a pre-Yayoi POD of 300 BC or earlier, we would at least create the conditions necessary for a TL that meets the OP's specifications.

This would essentially require a PoD long before the 8th century BC, which might in turn render the alternate East Asia entirely unrecognizable from that of IOTL. Specifically, the chaos from the Spring and Autumn/Warring States Periods may have caused migrants from China to flee to the archipelago, while later developments led to friction between the Yan and Gojoseon, in which Liaoxi was conquered from the latter, triggering migrations southward into the peninsula, pushing many of the inhabitants eastward into Japan.

In order for the widespread chaos to be butterflied away altogether, China would have had to remain stable for a far longer period of time. This may well have been impossible as remote frontier regions began to assert their independence from the Zhou, making it essentially inevitable that neighboring entities would eventually go to war with each other.

Also, Japanese toponyms are only found in areas south of Pyongyang, with none in Manchuria, which has a high density of Korean ones. Genetic research also suggests that the respective populations in the peninsula and the archipelago may not have changed significantly, suggesting that founder populations gradually assimilated local inhabitants.

Vingilótë · Apr 27, 2015

For a POD which doesn't start 2500 years ago, we could have the USSR annex Hokkaido in addition to Sakhalin and the Kurils and constitute all of it as part of an Ainu SSR which breaks away following the fall of the USSR.

Problems would be that said SSR would probably be either mostly Japanese or mostly Russian, so not really "Ainu Moshir."

Sycamore · Apr 28, 2015

adamu_kun said:
It could certainly raise some interesting PODs, but I don't think that the Matsumae clan were ever going to subvert the Shogunate. I'm pretty sure that Matsumae was the only daimyo to not have to participate in the sankin-kotai hostage system that kind of squashed any potential of rebellion. And they didn't have to pay the annual rice tax to the Shogunate, not a single koku AFAIK. So trade was never going to happen with the Matsumae.

My own take on that is that the Matsumae were probably interested in it. From the arrival of Francis Xavier right up until the Russian trade mission (and afterwards), Westerners were known as 'nanban' (southern barbarians) because they always came from the south. Hence Dejima in Nagasaki being set up as the only permissible trading post. The sudden arrival of what could have been described as 'hokuban' (northern barbarians) who claimed to come from north of Japan would have perhaps given the Matsumae clan the opportunity to salivate over getting very rich through trade, not to mention the potential of having a Western ally to help quell any future Ainu rebellions. However, given their complete loyalty to the Shogunate, they had to defer to Edo and of course, the answer was no. And quite understandably as well, the Matsumae were rich (ruling over an untaxed 'kuni' and not having to undertake the rather expensive sankin-kotai (kept other daimyo poorer and unable to maintain a threatening army). Trade with the Russians would only make them richer, give them access to Western arms and, with the most recent combat experience (against the Ainu), this would result into a potential threat against the Tokugawa.

Also, the Russians were looking to control the Ainu and integrate them into the Russian trading posts. So I don't think that this would really give rise to an Ainu country of any kind. If anything it would integrate some nearby Ainu tribes with any Russian presence, but not all of them and this would only result in some stronger resistance during the colonization of Hokkaido during the 19th Century.

But the PODs your scenario raises are interesting. If the Shogunate had allowed the Matsumae to trade with the Russians, would this have led to a stronger Matsumae clan which may have helped support the Shogunate during its fall in the years after the arrival of Perry's Black Ships? And would this have allowed a modernized shogunate to remain in power? Alternatively, would this have driven the Matsumae to press any advantage they may have had in weaponry against the Ainu and conduct some form of 18th or early-19th Century ethnic cleansing and early colonization of Hokkaido? Another thing that could happen with the opening of a northern port like Hakodate to trade, would this encourage other countries to come and try to trade with Japan rather than go through Nagasaki and would this have led to earlier calls to modernize Japan?

A successful Russian trade mission raises a lot of very interesting possibilities and divergencies. However, I'm not fully sold on it leading to the establishment of an Ainu nation, as the Ainu were never united enough to form a solid nation-like state of their own in Hokkaido. Unless of course they were resisting Russian incursions, but that would only lead to further suppressions by both the Matsumae (trying to look good in front of the Shogunate and all other Daimyo) and the Russians.

I think perhaps if something had happened earlier to create more unity amongst all the Ainu then a country could be feasible, but as they were co-existing tribes, each with their own rules, this never happened and is unlikely with any POD. It's the same reason the aborigines on Taiwan never united and created an island-wide nation state before the first Ming-dynasty migrations, or the Dutch or Spanish and why they did not create a unified nation after Koxinga invaded. It's also why they were never really fully pacified until Japanese rule from 1895 onwards, as even if one tribe had its head cut off, there were many more scattered around all over the place (it's also why the whole of Taiwan never fully came under Chinese rule). Same is true of Hokkaido (or Ezo as it was before Meiji). To unite the Ainu as an enemy or an ally to work with would have needed a much stronger Russian presence. So maybe a way of getting this to work is to have a strong Russian delegation and military presence visit the Matsumae, similar to Perry's Black Ships sailing into Edo Bay 70 years or so later.

I agree that the Matsumae clan would have probably been interested in trade with the Russians, and I also agree that they were probably never going to subvert the Shogunate to open up trade themselves. But the thing is, there's another, far easier way around the restrictions. At this time, in spite of Japan being closed off to foreigners under the Sakoku policy, the Matsumae Domain still trades freely with the Ainu- and if the Russians (and any other foreign merchants interested in trading) also trade with the Ainu, then the Ainu people are ideally placed to benefit as intermediaries between the Japanese and the Europeans. This would be an ideal solution for the Matsumae clan, allowing them the opportunity for self-aggrandizement in exactly the same fashion as the Satsuma clan; but it would benefit the Ainu even more, and could easily lead to greater unity through the creation of a thallasocratic tribal confederation, akin to the Ryukyu Kingdom.

The Ryukyu were assisted in advancing their technology and diplomatic relations by a small delegation of 36 Chinese families, who were sent from Fujian to manage oceanic dealings in the kingdom on behalf of the Ming Emperor (in 1392, with the Chinese losing interest in the kingdom after the fall of the Ming Dynasty); but the trade relations via the Ryukyu Kingdom proved especially crucial to both the Tokugawa shogunate and Satsuma domain, which would use the power and influence which it gained from this trade to help overthrow the shogunate in the 1860s. If the Ainu seized their opportunity after the enactment of the Sakoku policy, with a number of local chieftains or lords creating a trade coalition which then coalesces under a single ruler into a fully fledged kingdom, then a similar Ainu kingdom could have potentially come into being, one which would serve as a convenient loophole for Japanese trade with the Europeans.

Unlike the Ryukyu Kingdom, where the Ming Chinese trade delegation were only capable of advancing their technology to mid-17th century levels, and the end of the Ming Dynasty almost immediately after the enactment of Sakoku stymied any chance of the Ryukyu gaining a technological or diplomatic edge over the Japanese, the advancement of the resulting Ainu Kingdom by an Imperial Russian trade delegation (and, indeed, by subsequent European trade delegations, if they're allowed to get in on the act) could be capable of advancing their technology and diplomatic ties to 19th century levels, giving the Ainu the edge over the Japanese until Japan finally gets opened up to trade with the outside world.

An Ainu Kingdom would have its Golden Age from the time of its establishment to the time when the Kingdom of Japan gets opened up to the West, and as a result of the far greater potential for advancement through trade with the West, it'd stand a far greater chance of enduring than the Ryukyu Kingdom did. The respective populations of the Ainu people and the Ryukyuan people had been more or less on a par in the late 18th century- in such a TL, the Ainu should fare far better than the Ryukyuans did IOTL, and if they do, then it'd be more than plausible for the region to have a similar population to its population IOTL (6.1M) and to still retain an Ainu majority. And even if it does end up becoming a Russian Protectorate after this point, then Ainu culture should still be strong enough for an Ainu Kingdom (or Republic, or SSR) to be re-established in its entirety in either the post-colonial or the post-Soviet era.

pa_dutch · Apr 28, 2015

adamu_kun said:
^^ What he said ^^

Any POD later than the start of the Heian period would be too late to have this happen. Unfortunately there aren't too many historical records about what happened in the Jomon and Yayoi periods, other than a few references to what would become Japan from the Han dynasty, so a lot of what would need to happen is open to speculation.

Somehow stopping the migrations from the Korean peninsula would definitely help. There were still a number of Polynesian immigrations into what would become the genetic soup that resulted in the modern Japanese ethnicity, but Polynesian migrants often mixed or co-existed with existing populations. The existence of a number of aboriginal races on Taiwan to this day kind of shows that. So chances are, they would have co-existed or got themselves absorbed into the Ainu.

Polynesians lived pretty far away from Japan... Do you mean to say Austronesians? A lot of people tend to mix up the two, claiming that "Polynesians" settled Madagascar, Taiwan, etc.

adamu_kun · Apr 29, 2015

pa_dutch said:
Polynesians lived pretty far away from Japan... Do you mean to say Austronesians? A lot of people tend to mix up the two, claiming that "Polynesians" settled Madagascar, Taiwan, etc.

D'oh! Yes, Austronesians...

Now, having the Ainu as an intermediary between the Matsumae and the Russians is an interesting possibility that could have the Matsumae benefit from trade. After all, the Ainu were not subject to the sakoku laws...

I can't see how this could lead to an Ainu nation though, as it would need a lot of tribes to work together which didn't happen OTL. Plus if an Ainu nation emerged, would the Matsumae see this as a threat and immediately stomp on it in its infancy?

Sycamore · May 16, 2015

adamu_kun said:
D'oh! Yes, Austronesians...

Now, having the Ainu as an intermediary between the Matsumae and the Russians is an interesting possibility that could have the Matsumae benefit from trade. After all, the Ainu were not subject to the sakoku laws...

I can't see how this could lead to an Ainu nation though, as it would need a lot of tribes to work together which didn't happen OTL. Plus if an Ainu nation emerged, would the Matsumae see this as a threat and immediately stomp on it in its infancy?

Depends on how threatened they are by it, how hard they stomp on it, and how resilient the Ainu can be. Basically, I'm looking for a scenario in which TTL's Ainumoshiri becomes the Ireland to Japan's Great Britain.