Greater chaos under heaven 天下大混亂: Alternate Post-Yuan China

yboxman

Banned
#1:The Fall

The year is 1356 and All Under Heaven Is Great Chaos. For 450 years a succession of Barbarian Nomadic people, first the Khitans, then the Jurchens, finally the Mongols, have encroached upon the Middle kingdom, carving out states in the North. In those states the traditional (1) leading role of the Confucian scholar gentry has been curtailed, overlain by a foreign military caste.

For unlike previous invaders, the more recent hordes have maintained control of their Steppe homeland, and have taken great pains to retain a separate identity and organization placing them above the conquered Han (2).

The last wave of conquerors, not content to rule over the plains of Northern China, have crushed the Song remnant over half a century of near constant warfare, and occupied the river valleys and hills of the south. Under Kublai Khan they have proclaimed themselves of the Yuan dynasty, and for a century have ruled over the largest empire, Chinese or otherwise, the world has ever known. Elsewhere, their Kin have swept across the entirety of Inner Asia, conquered the Muslim states of the Middle East, and ravaged and made tributaries of the East Slav principalities.

But now the Yuan dynasty has crumbled into infighting and the Han have had enough. Swept up by the messianical fervor of the prophecy of the coming Maitreya Budha, The Han stand united against their opressors!

Well… actually, not so much.

Redturbans.png

Map is somewhat misleading, as the southern Red turbans are not broken up yet, but it's the best representation of a confused situation I could find. Shaanxi and Henan held by Mongol warlords only nominally loyal to the Yuan court in Dadu, Northern Red turbans split between main, Song faction led by LIU FUTONG (刘福通) with Han Lin’er as figurehead and other regimes in Shandong and . Southern Red turbans still nominally "united" in empire of Tianwan under Xu Shouhui 徐壽輝. The split into Ming under ZHU YUANZHANG (朱元璋), Dahan under CHEN YOULIANG (陈友谅), and Daxia under MING YUZHEN (明玉珍) is already in the works though. FANG GUOZHEN (方国珍) is playing merry pirate in Fukien, and ZHANG SHICHENG (张士诚) has proclaimed the kingdom of Dazhhou in Jiangsu. Interesting times.



The initial outbreak of the Red turban rebellion in the Yellow river valley has suffered reverses at the hands of the Yuan and various Mongol warlords, splintering into three components. The rebel states of Yidu in the Shandong peninsula, and of Jin in the Liaodong peninsula are nominally subordinate to the self proclaimed latter Song dynasty in Anhui. This dynasty is officially ruled by Han Lnier, Son of the slain rebel and prophet Hong Shantong, but is effectively led by his former subordinate Liu Futong.

The situation of the Northern Red turbans would be desperate were it not for two things. First, the Yuan are just as divided and fractious. The Mongol warlord Koke Temur rules Henan and owns only nominal Alleigence to the fractious Yuan court in Dadu. Indeed, he might very well prefer to march on the capital and displace the current ineffectual emperor if only the Red Turbans would permit him. Bolad Temur, in Shaanxi, has few such inhibitions and is maneuvering for the time in which he might make his move.

Second, the northern rebellion sparked a copy-cat rebellion by the southern adherents of the same Millenarian sect following their own leaders and dogmatic prophecies. From his base in Hannyang Xu Shouhui has proclaimed the Tianwan empire and dominates the upper and middle Yangtze valley. Or rather, his fractious and nominal subordinates do. Chen Youliang, in addition to controlling his own base in Jiangzhou, rules Tianwan in all but name. He has rivals, however.

To the West, Ming Yuzhen , an adherent of Manichienism, is encroaching into Sichuan, vanquishing the weak Yuan and local forces in his path. To the east, Zhu Yuanzhang, a late-comer to the Red Turban movement who has joined his force to the insurgency (3) has just conquered Nanking and is busy establishing his own power base.

South of the Yangtze Valley, southern China is a maze of warlord fiefs, some are ruled by Han, others by Mongols. Some have proclaimed their own regimes, while others retain nominal subordination to the distant Yuan court. Of the latter, the foremost is the Principality of Lang in the far southwest, ruled by the Mongol prince Basalawarmi. In Fukien, Chen Youding, a Han commander loyal to the Yuan dynasty is batteling the Ispah rebels, an ecelectic coalition of Arab, Persian and native Chinese Muslims led by Saif ad-Din (赛甫丁) and Amir ad-Din (阿迷里丁). Fang Guozhen, who has the dubious honor of having launched the wave of rebellion against against Mongol rule in the 1340s dominates coastal Zhiejiang and every coast his fleet of pirates raids. No religious fanatic, he began his career by fleeing unjust accusations of outlawery. Naturally, he then proceeded to gather outlaws arounf him into a deadly pirate fleet with which the depleted navy of Yuan has proved unable to contend.
Since then he had alternately accepted bribes and official positions from the Yuan to end his raiding (4) and returned to his merry pirating ways. North of him is another opportunistic warlord. Unassuming and indolent Zhang Shicheng dominates Jiangsu and the Ynagtze delta, the richest and most advanced part of China, whose grain harvest regularly feeds the Yuan capital of Dadu. Or it did before Zhang cut off the Grand Canal. A salt trader in his origins, and with three capable and loyal brothers, Zhang stands out amongst the radical lower class warlords and rebels in having proven capable of attracting gentry and merchants to support his regime and Confucian scholars to serve as administrators.

Two years ago he felt sufficiently well established to proclaim himself king Tianyou (天佑) of Dazhou and his territory has greatly expanded since then. Now, however, ge is now facing the first serious Challenge to his regime. Where before he has been operating in the power vaccum of the collapsing Yuan and has been able to co-opt smaller rebel bands, the capture Nanking by the southern Red turbans under Zhu Yuanzhang (5), force him to firmly establish his Western Frontiers. Perhaps he can even take Nanking himself now that it's fortifications are breached!

It is as he rides in front of his gathered forces, prepared to lead them to for the greater glory of the kingdom of Dazhou, that his horse slips. Horrified, his brother Zhang Shide (张士德) dismounts and rushes towards him. It is no good, king Tianyou (天佑) of Dazhou is dead (6).

(1) Hmmm… Well, traditional under the Song. Tradition is usually another word for entrenched privilege, regardless of how old it actually is.
(2) "Every conqueror of China has inevitably been assimilated by it" my ass.
(3) Well, actually his father in law and commander did. But this is getting confusing enough as it is.
(4) His most recent appointment if supervisor of Grain transport. The bright Idea was that if he was supervising, and taxing, the transports to Dadu he wouldn’t raid them.
(5) Their seems to be some disagreement in sources as to whether Zhu Yuanzhang was a (nominal) follower of the Southern or Northern Red turbans. My take is that he switched his alleigence to han Lni'er only after Chen offed Xu Shouhui.
(6) And this is the POD. OTL it is Zhang Shide, one of the most capable and aggressive generals of this era, who fell off his horse, albeit a decade later, when Zhu Yuanzhang was moving in for the kill.


Redturbans.png
 
The prelude is interesting, but I am not sure if using a EU4 map could be the best choice, anyway that's only my personal opinion.
 

yboxman

Banned
The prelude is interesting, but I am not sure if using a EU4 map could be the best choice, anyway that's only my personal opinion.

If you can propose another one that catches the complexity of the situation let me know. Combed the net and the textbooks and could only find partial fragments. I'll grant you it's a fluid period but still.

This map is sort-kinda accurate in portraying the factions geographically and is better than nothing.
 
If you can propose another one that catches the complexity of the situation let me know. Combed the net and the textbooks and could only find partial fragments. I'll grant you it's a fluid period but still.

It could be sufficient to take a geographic map of China and then paint by yourself borders and names of the main factions, it's not necessary to be an astoundishing work, but one which will be comprehensible.
 

yboxman

Banned
It could be sufficient to take a geographic map of China and then paint by yourself borders and names of the main factions, it's not necessary to be an astoundishing work, but one which will be comprehensible.

Damn you for making me work for a living. Damn you I say:eek:
 

yboxman

Banned
Better map

Great Chaos.Jpeg

Light Red is southern Red turban factions, Darker red is northern Red turbans. Green are Mongols princes and warlords, Blue are independent rebels, orange is contested. And I can find Shit all about what was going down in Guangdong and Guangxi at the time. I;m assuming that this far from either Yuan or red Turbans local officials haven't bothered seceding formally and have simply stopped answering the mail from Dadu. Anybody have any sources?

Great Chaos.Jpeg
 
(I realize that the first map may not necessarily represent all of the borders accurately.)

A few notes on Korea:

The "Jin" in Liaodong is an anachronism. Goryeo princes were directly appointed by the Yuan as governors of Shenyang from 1307-76 (Goryeo from 1376-88), administering what is now Liaoning, the southernmost portions of Heilongjiang, and the Tumen River Basin. This was because a sizable minority (if not majority) of Koreans (up to a million) resided within Liaodong, while most of the Jurchen (several million) lived in eastern Manchuria, both as a result of major Yuan depopulation/population transfers. The last governor was installed in 1354, and was recognized by the Yuan until 1376, while Goryeo recognized his claims (only in name) until 1388. A major Jurchen invasion in 1364 also occurred in the northeast of the peninsula, while every attack crossing the Yalu was conducted by Mongol troops, again indicating that the Jurchen base of operations was located in the east.

Meanwhile, the areas of Dongning south of the Yalu (between the Yalu and Gaegyeong; now Pyonggan province) was returned to Goryeo in 1290 after 20 years of petitions to the Yuan court, after which its seat of administration was moved to Liaodong. On the other hand, Shuangcheng (southermost portion of South Hamgyeong around modern-day Kumya County) was invaded in the fourth month of 1356 and incorporated after Yi Ja-chun (Yi Seong-gye's father), who had harbored deep resentment against the Yuan for years, handed over his holdings, facilitating the capture of other Mongol garrisons. Later in the same year, Goryeo troops crossed the Yalu and conquered three Mongol garrisons, indicating their firm position south of the river. (Goryeo later gradually pushed into areas south of the Tumen within a decade, and attacked the rest of Dongning (Liaodong) twice in 1370 and 1371, capturing what is now Benxi and Liaoyang, soon after which the troops and most of the ~1m inhabitants retreated south of the Yalu due to the Ming advance.)

Interesting. I don't think Jeju in particular would have become Mongolian, though.

Well, yes and no. The Yuan handed Jeju back to Goryeo in 1295, although less than 2,000 Mongol soldiers remained on the island for over a century. However, they had also been gradually integrated into the local population through assimilation and marriages, and remained directly under Goryeo administration thereafter. While a major rebellion by Mongol residents did occur in 1374, with minor incidents thereafter, this was swiftly crushed, and was due to issues concerning tribute between the Ming and Goryeo. Meanwhile, the Yuan court never interfered in the island's affairs after 1295. As a result, while the island remained politically part of Korea post-1295, Mongol influence continued until 1374.
 
Well, yes and no. The Yuan handed Jeju back to Goryeo in 1295, although less than 2,000 Mongol soldiers remained on the island for over a century. However, they had also been gradually integrated into the local population through assimilation and marriages, and remained directly under Goryeo administration thereafter. While a major rebellion by Mongol residents did occur in 1374, with minor incidents thereafter, this was swiftly crushed, and was due to issues concerning tribute between the Ming and Goryeo. Meanwhile, the Yuan court never interfered in the island's affairs after 1295. As a result, while the island remained politically part of Korea post-1295, Mongol influence continued until 1374.

wow, never even heard of that. I'm sure "WI Mongol-dominated Jeju declares independence from Korea after Korea becomes independent from Mongols" is another borderline-ASB but interesting scenario.
 

yboxman

Banned
"Jin", Liadong Koreans and mapping rebel groups

(I realize that the first map may not necessarily represent all of the borders accurately.).

Neither does the second. There are no accurate contemporary accounts of borders and zones of control and influence are nebulous, overlap, and shift rapidly. Consider the map as idicating bases of operation rather than defined borders.

A few notes on Korea:

The "Jin" in Liaodong is an anachronism..

Well, yes and no. The map makes an effort to represent the 1356 situation and the Northern Red turbans only seemed to have gained (temporary) control over Liaodong after the failed 1359 offensive. Part of the army which attacked Dadu apparantly made it's way there. That's the conventional account anyway. However, other sources indicate that the group which took over in Liaodong was mostly local (which makes sense. Marching a defeated army from Dadu to Laidong would be near insane) and was connected to the initial rebellion in the early 1350s (which also makes sense, most of the Liaodong Han population came from Shangdong by sea, and connections remained).

So for the sake of clarity assume the "Jin" of the in the map refers to an active rebel group which has not yet gained control of the administrative or formal tax gathering apparatus of the region, or expelled Yuan-Korean forces.

For that matter, the same is true of most other rebel groups, even in the south at this time. They are usually the most powerful millitary force in the areas indicated, but minor rebels, local self-defense millitas, bandits, nominal Yuan loyalists, Leftover imperial oficials, etc co-occupy the same space, compete for Taxation authority, and often defect from the Yuan to this or another Rebel group and back. Over the next decade the exclusive control of each group over it's turf tends to solidify, and the Yuan lose vestigal presence in the south even as they take back the North.

Goryeo princes were directly appointed by the Yuan as governors of Shenyang from 1307-76 (Goryeo from 1376-88), administering what is now Liaoning, the southernmost portions of Heilongjiang, and the Tumen River Basin..

Was this continuous? I knew about Chubgseon in 1307, And Korean involvement during the Red Turban rebellions but wasn't sure whether this practice continued indefinately in between.

This was because a sizable minority (if not majority) of Koreans (up to a million) resided within Liaodong..

What ended up happening to this minority and do you have sources for it? From what I understood most Koreans in China today are concentrated further east and mostly entered Manchuria post 1860 (when the Taiping revolt and Russian incursions loosened Qing border controls at the same time upheaval and famine occured in Korea). So were the Liaodong Koreans expelled? massacred? assimilated?

A major Jurchen invasion in 1364 also occurred in the northeast of the peninsula, while every attack crossing the Yalu was conducted by Mongol troops, again indicating that the Jurchen base of operations was located in the east..

I pretty much have the Idea that the Jurchen were not organized into any overarching confederacy, and that autonomous groups of them roamed far west of what you are describing even if they were under nominal authority of Mongol princes. That said, those groups which were more independent of collapsing Yuan and local Mongol authority were obviously more easterly, but that does not preculde other groups in Central and Western Manchuria.

the troops and most of the ~1m inhabitants retreated south of the Yalu due to the Ming advance.).


So not expelled or assimilated but evacuated? 1 million people just got up and left? this seems... well, population movements of sedentary people on that scale given the transportation technology of the time require some genocide level massacres or credible threats thereof, and I would expect them to be carried out by the hostile group (Ming in this case).

That's what happened to the Cham, Mon, Kurds expelled to Khorasan by the Saffavids, Alevis expelled to West Anatolia by the Ottomans, etc. May I offer the speculation that the 1 million number you are quoting may have been exaggerated for official purposes and that the Korean settlers (or at least those who fled) may have represented a mobile, administrative-millitary-mercantile strata rather than an entrenched peasentry? Not that I have any sources to back me up on this, I've never heard of the Yuan-Era Liadong Koreans before, the scenario you are describing just seems incredible.
 

yboxman

Banned

Thanks! Yes, this is a much better template.

And "Great Chaos Under Heaven" is usually written as: "天下大亂", not "天下大混亂".


I know, but it's "Greater", not "Great". A pun referring to more credible claimants to the Mandate of heaven TTL. A Bit weak but there you go. Freely admit to not being a great scholar of Chinese characters but that's the way my tutor says it should be written.
 
wow, never even heard of that. I'm sure "WI Mongol-dominated Jeju declares independence from Korea after Korea becomes independent from Mongols" is another borderline-ASB but interesting scenario.

It's well known that the Jeju dialect/language borrowed numerous cognates from Mongolian, while the horses on the island are assumed to be descendants of Mongol breeds.

Neither does the second. There are no accurate contemporary accounts of borders and zones of control and influence are nebulous, overlap, and shift rapidly. Consider the map as idicating bases of operation rather than defined borders.

I'm well aware of that, but the northern Korean border (ignoring Liaodong, which continued to remain under Yuan administration for over a century) within the first map seems to be quite off. Did you read what I had written earlier about Dongning (up to the Yalu), Shuangcheng (into Hamgyeong), and Jeju (under Goryeo administration post-1295)?

Well, yes and no. The map makes an effort to represent the 1356 situation and the Northern Red turbans only seemed to have gained (temporary) control over Liaodong after the failed 1359 offensive. Part of the army which attacked Dadu apparantly made it's way there. That's the conventional account anyway. However, other sources indicate that the group which took over in Liaodong was mostly local (which makes sense. Marching a defeated army from Dadu to Laidong would be near insane) and was connected to the initial rebellion in the early 1350s (which also makes sense, most of the Liaodong Han population came from Shangdong by sea, and connections remained).

So for the sake of clarity assume the "Jin" of the in the map refers to an active rebel group which has not yet gained control of the administrative or formal tax gathering apparatus of the region, or expelled Yuan-Korean forces.

For that matter, the same is true of most other rebel groups, even in the south at this time. They are usually the most powerful millitary force in the areas indicated, but minor rebels, local self-defense millitas, bandits, nominal Yuan loyalists, Leftover imperial oficials, etc co-occupy the same space, compete for Taxation authority, and often defect from the Yuan to this or another Rebel group and back. Over the next decade the exclusive control of each group over it's turf tends to solidify, and the Yuan lose vestigal presence in the south even as they take back the North.

That makes more sense (you had made it seem as if the Jurchen reestablished the Jin before clarifying), but the Han Chinese wouldn't have existed in significant numbers within Liaodong in the 1350s, given that it was politically part of non-Han Chinese entities for almost a millennia before then (the Tang only occupied it for three decades). None of the records for each state also mention a sizable Han Chinese presence (the Yuan remained more keen on settling Goryeo migrants soon after extensive depopulation), given that major migrations occurred during the Ming and Qing, while migrants from Shandong wouldn't have been significant enough to establish an independent entity on their own.

Meanwhile, Goryeo had sent 2,000 troops deep into North China in 1354 to aid the Yuan against rebel uprisings, and while an army was later raised in 1357 to prepare for raids from the north, antagonistic troops are not recorded within Liaodong in the Goryeosa until 1359, neither of which make sense if a hostile entity had been established immediately north of the Yalu by 1356 (before the PoD), as skirmishes would have been recorded. An active rebellion within Liaodong is also at odds with the fact that Toghtua Bukha (explained below) had continued to reside within Shenyang from 1354-76, and did not have issues with traveling to Dadu, in addition to moving back and forth within Liaodong.

Was this continuous? I knew about Chubgseon in 1307, And Korean involvement during the Red Turban rebellions but wasn't sure whether this practice continued indefinately in between.

Yes. Chungseon (Wang Jang) was the King/Prince of Shenyang from 1307/8-16, although he also ruled Goryeo from 1308-13. His nephew, Wang Go, then took over from 1316-45, going as far as to threaten the next three Goryeo monarchs by seizing the royal seal in 1321, then deposing and replacing the first two with each other through the Yuan (Chungsuk-Chunghye-Chungsuk-Chunghye). He even sent troops to the capital in 1339 to claim the throne for himself, which was eventually beaten back, and attempted another usurpation in 1344 that failed after Chungmok was enthroned. The Shenyang title then either nominally remained under the next two Goryeo rulers from 1345-51, then to Wang Toghtua Bukha (Wang Go's grandson) from 1354-76, or directly to the latter from 1345-1376, who was briefly deemed to be the Goryeo monarch by the Yuan in 1374 before Goryeo generals installed Wang U. An invasion by Prince Deukheung in 1364 (directly through Liaodong) with the backing of the Yuan was swiftly repulsed at what is now Uiju County, which was related to the tension between the Goryeo and Liaodong factions. After Toghtua Bukha's death in 1375-6, the title became titular under Goryeo until 1388.

However, a Korean presence within Liaodong existed long before 1307. Hong Bok-won, a Goryeo general, became the military governor of Dongjing (within Liaodong) in 1233 after defecting, and was assigned control of 40 fortresses north of the Yalu. He then persuaded the Mongols to attack the peninsula on a yearly basis, and continued to exacerbate tensions between the two parties (refusing to acknowledge the Goryeo court) until he was executed in 1258. While some of his sons then repatriated to Goryeo, others remained in Liaodong and continued to pressure Korea for decades until at least 1291, and also participated in the Mongol invasions of Japan. Given that weakening the Hong clan was cited as one of the reasons for Külüg Khan (Wuzong) installing Wang Jang as the governor of Shenyang, their collective influence may well have lasted into 1307.

In other words, while Goryeo never managed to directly administer Liaodong, the latter governors wielded significant influence, and refused to submit to Goryeo authority. In addition, the governors were nominally ranked higher than the rulers themselves, while the Yuan court was willing to repeatedly back the princes' claims to the Goryeo throne.

Also see below.

What ended up happening to this minority and do you have sources for it? From what I understood most Koreans in China today are concentrated further east and mostly entered Manchuria post 1860 (when the Taiping revolt and Russian incursions loosened Qing border controls at the same time upheaval and famine occured in Korea). So were the Liaodong Koreans expelled? massacred? assimilated?

Yes, but the later emigrations began as early as the 17th century after defections to the Jurchen/Manchu (albeit in much larger numbers by the 19th), while the earlier waves to Liaodong during Goryeo were unrelated with the ones during Joseon. Most who resided until the late 14th century gradually repatriated to Korea during mass turmoil for three decades within China (Red Turbans, Ming advance, Yuan counterattacks), although those who remained long after 1370 would have been expelled, massacred, or assimilated.

Regarding numbers, while most statistics are no longer extant due to the widespread destruction, the Goryeosa records the below during the 12th month of 1254:

"是歲, 蒙兵所虜男女, 無慮二十萬六千八百餘人, 殺戮者, 不可勝計. 所經州郡, 皆爲煨燼, 自有蒙兵之亂, 未有甚於此時也."

This basically states that during 1254, around 206,800 males and females were captured by the Mongols as prisoners of war, in addition to the slaughter of countless more and the widespread destruction of all of the peninsular provinces, which was an unprecedented event. However, given that the Mongols had continued to sustain campaigns decades before and after, the total number of captives would probably have numbered around 300,000-400,000. The vast majority would have been relocated to Liaodong, given that Hong Bok-won had already governed the area with 40 fortresses and at least several thousand military households since 1233, not to mention that hundreds of thousands more would have also fled north to escape the extended chaos, as well as during major plagues and mass famines for decades afterwards. The Goryeosa additionally records that the inhabitants within Seogyeong (Pyongyang) were forcibly evacuated by the Goryeo court to nearby islands twice in 1233 and 1269 due to major rebellions and defections, of which many would have sought refuge north of the Yalu (the city's population was in the hundreds of thousands, as the western capital was the largest city north of Gaegyeong by far).

Later, when the Red Turbans entered Liaodong in 1359, they demanded supplies from the local Korean population, who entered Goryeo in mass numbers after rejecting the offer, forcing the invaders to cross the Yalu due to dwindling resources. Goryeo troops within Liaodong later also requested the remaining local residents to return to the peninsula in 1370-1. Neither makes sense had the Han Chinese continuously retained a major presence within Liaodong before the 1380s, as they seem to have been ignored in both cases.

So it's reasonable to assume that around 500,000 to a million Koreans would have continuously resided within Liaodong from the late 13th to mid-14th centuries.

(The History of Yuan also extensively records Hong Bok-won and his descendants' exploits within Dongjing and Liaoyang in Juan 59 and 154, while the establishment of the Shenyang title in 1307 is recorded in Juan 22, as well as the details for his successors elsewhere within the text. All seem to indicate a significant Korean presence for decades.)

I pretty much have the Idea that the Jurchen were not organized into any overarching confederacy, and that autonomous groups of them roamed far west of what you are describing even if they were under nominal authority of Mongol princes. That said, those groups which were more independent of collapsing Yuan and local Mongol authority were obviously more easterly, but that does not preculde other groups in Central and Western Manchuria.

I'm not saying that the Jurchen only lived in Eastern Manchuria, but rather that the main groups that possessed enough resources to establish a loose entity and raid/invade other states were located in the east. Many of the Jurchen that had resided within Liaodong until the 13th century would also have been massacred during the Mongol advance.

So not expelled or assimilated but evacuated? 1 million people just got up and left? this seems... well, population movements of sedentary people on that scale given the transportation technology of the time require some genocide level massacres or credible threats thereof, and I would expect them to be carried out by the hostile group (Ming in this case).

That's what happened to the Cham, Mon, Kurds expelled to Khorasan by the Saffavids, Alevis expelled to West Anatolia by the Ottomans, etc. May I offer the speculation that the 1 million number you are quoting may have been exaggerated for official purposes and that the Korean settlers (or at least those who fled) may have represented a mobile, administrative-millitary-mercantile strata rather than an entrenched peasentry? Not that I have any sources to back me up on this, I've never heard of the Yuan-Era Liadong Koreans before, the scenario you are describing just seems incredible.

I've already mentioned most of the details above, and while many of the initial emigrants were defected soldiers or aristocrats, the vast majority of the individuals who fled afterward during multiple waves were peasants attempting to escape the chaos, as the northernmost regions came close to being depopulated after multiple Mongol invasions.

Also, significant depopulations within East Asia weren't exactly rare. Focusing only on Manchuria, after Goguryeo collapsed in 668, the Tang forcibly relocated 200,000-250,000 Goguryeo individuals to the Yangtze and Gansu, after which 2/3 were moved back to Liaodong, who were then re-exiled to Gansu and the Western Regions (Xiyu), all within 13 years. Hundreds of thousands more were also relocated within Manchuria or dispersed elsewhere across China, all within, although millions who remained revolted and founded Balhae in 698. In the early 10th century, up to a million refugees may have fled Balhae into Goryeo after a catastrophic eruption on Baekdu Mountain and the ensuing invasion from the Liao, although a Liaodong remnant continued to exist for almost five decades, and the Balhae ethnic group continued to be recorded within Liao, Jin, and Yuan records. Later, around 3.39 million Han Chinese (after over two centuries of immigration) are estimated to have resided within Manchuria by 1640 or so, although this later plummeted to around 160,000 by 1660 due to the Manchu invasions, the vast majority of which would have been due to emigration/expulsion rather than large-scale massacres. This means that there were at least five major population movements (including repatriations to Goryeo and Han Chinese immigration during the Ming) within Manchuria for a millennia or so.

As a sidenote, however, recent estimates of the Manchu population around 1640 center around 500,000 (compared with 500,000 Mongols within northwestern Manchuria), suggesting that the Jurchen during the 14th century may actually have numbered significantly less than a million, even after taking assimilations and migrations into account.

I know, but it's "Greater", not "Great". A pun referring to more credible claimants to the Mandate of heaven TTL. A Bit weak but there you go. Freely admit to not being a great scholar of Chinese characters but that's the way my tutor says it should be written.

I was under the impression that "天下大亂" has a more classical nuance, while "天下大混亂" sounds more modern.

That being said, I have seen the phrase "大混亂" used in both Mandarin and Korean to refer to extreme disorder.
 

yboxman

Banned
I'm well aware of that, but the northern Korean border (ignoring Liaodong, which continued to remain under Yuan administration for over a century) within the first map seems to be quite off. Did you read what I had written earlier about Dongning (up to the Yalu), Shuangcheng (into Hamgyeong), and Jeju (under Goryeo administration post-1295)?

Aye. but my understanding is that Koreas conquest/liberation/reacquisition of the Northern territories took place in 1356-1357, prior to the POD. As the situation develops I will show Korea expanding northwards.

That makes more sense (you had made it seem as if the Jurchen reestablished the Jin before clarifying),

Ah, I see, that was not my intention. Don't know why that rebel faction chose "Jin" as their state name but I think they were referring to five dynasties and 10 kingdoms (Tang-Song interregnum) state from which the Jurchen Jin dynasty derived it's name. OTOH, it might have been an attempt to gain the support of Jurchen, or other Jin loyalists still living in Liaodong.

But the Han Chinese wouldn't have existed in significant numbers within Liaodong in the 1350s, given that it was politically part of non-Han Chinese entities for almost a millennia before then (the Tang only occupied it for three decades).


The Han, Wei and Jin (not the Jurchen or Song-Tang interregnum Jin, the 3rd-5th century dynasty) ruled it for seven or eight centuries fairly continuously. That's more than enough time for a population and language to establish itself, even given later domination by another polity. Especially when most of the polities dominating it later were essentially nomad dominated confederations (yes, including Goguryeo).

As far as I know, the Kitans/Liao administered Liaodong in the same manner as they did the eighteen perfectures, as did the Jurchen/Jin.

None of the records for each state also mention a sizable Han Chinese presence (the Yuan remained more keen on settling Goryeo migrants soon after extensive depopulation), given that major migrations occurred during the Ming and Qing, while migrants from Shandong wouldn't have been significant enough to establish an independent entity on their own.

Maybe they weren't mentioned because they were taken for granted and immigrated without imperial intervention? I can't see how the Northern Red Turbans could have taken over the peninsula in 1359, let alone invade across the Yalu in such force if a pre-existing population base susceptible to their message (Ie; speaking their language and sharing kinship network ties) wasn't the majority, or at least a large minority of the population. Isn't it likely that under both Jurchen and Yuan rule immigration to the peninsula from North CHina took place as it did under the Qing?

Meanwhile, Goryeo had sent 2,000 troops deep into North China in 1354 to aid the Yuan against rebel uprisings, and while an army was later raised in 1357 to prepare for raids from the north, antagonistic troops are not recorded within Liaodong in the Goryeosa until 1359, neither of which make sense if a hostile entity had been established immediately north of the Yalu by 1356 (before the PoD), as skirmishes would have been recorded.

An active rebellion within Liaodong is also at odds with the fact that Toghtua Bukha (explained below) had continued to reside within Shenyang from 1354-76, and did not have issues with traveling to Dadu, in addition to moving back and forth within Liaodong.

OK, Fair enough. Goreyo sending 2000 troops into North China without dealing with insurgency in Liadong can be explained by Yuan dictate (looks like they were keeping Korean princes in Liaodong as a gun aimed at the head of the ruling Goreyo monarch, allowing him to bring troops into Liaodong would have defeated that purpose). But any insurgents operating in Liaodong would have generated unrest south of the Yalu and have shown up on the radar of Toghtua Bukha. So possibly the Red Turbans didn't reach there or erupt until 1359. Damned if I can understand HOW they did it without a pre-existing base or controlling the Land connection Between the Yellow river valley and Liaodong but it won't effect the outcome of the post 1359 situation much either way. Consider the Jin deleted until then.

In other words, while Goryeo never managed to directly administer Liaodong, the latter governors wielded significant influence, and refused to submit to Goryeo authority. In addition, the governors were nominally ranked higher than the rulers themselves, while the Yuan court was willing to repeatedly back the princes' claims to the Goryeo throne.

Hmmm... an interesting POD would be the Red Turbans never breaking out into Liaodong and the governors maintaining power. That would have complicated Ming-Northern Yuan-Joeson/Goreyo relations. But not relevent for TTL. the Northern Red Turbans will still have a Northern breakout TTL in 1859, it may even be farther reaching and more lasting.

Regarding numbers, while most statistics are no longer extant due to the widespread destruction, the Goryeosa records the below during the 12th month of 1254:

"是歲, 蒙兵所虜男女, 無慮二十萬六千八百餘人, 殺戮者, 不可勝計. 所經州郡, 皆爲煨燼, 自有蒙兵之亂, 未有甚於此時也."

This basically states that during 1254, around 206,800 males and females were captured by the Mongols as prisoners of war, in addition to the slaughter of countless more and the widespread destruction of all of the peninsular provinces, which was an unprecedented event. However, given that the Mongols had continued to sustain campaigns decades before and after, the total number of captives would probably have numbered around 300,000-400,000. The vast majority would have been relocated to Liaodong, given that Hong Bok-won had already governed the area with 40 fortresses and at least several thousand military households since 1233, not to mention that hundreds of thousands more would have also fled north to escape the extended chaos, as well as during major plagues and mass famines for decades afterwards. The Goryeosa additionally records that the inhabitants within Seogyeong (Pyongyang) were forcibly evacuated by the Goryeo court to nearby islands twice in 1233 and 1269 due to major rebellions and defections, of which many would have sought refuge north of the Yalu (the city's population was in the hundreds of thousands, as the western capital was the largest city north of Gaegyeong by far).

Interesting. OK, I accept the presence of a large Korean population in Liaodong, though I still suspect they are outnumbered by the Han. This population may or may not play a greater role TTL.

Later, when the Red Turbans entered Liaodong in 1359, they demanded supplies from the local Korean population, who entered Goryeo in mass numbers after rejecting the offer, forcing the invaders to cross the Yalu due to dwindling resources. [/QUOTE]

Even more interesting. So you are claiming the main motive for invading Goreyo was the flight of the local Korean population from Liaodong? I knew the Red Turban army was basically scrounging for supplies but this puts a different spin on things. You're saying most of the Army that invaded Goreyo were not Local Han with families of their own to support but effectively a rampaging horde cut off from their roots in mainland China.

Goryeo troops within Liaodong later also requested the remaining local residents to return to the peninsula in 1370-1. Neither makes sense had the Han Chinese continuously retained a major presence within Liaodong before the 1380s, as they seem to have been ignored in both cases.

Well, it could make sense, if you view the Red turban invasion into Korea as a rebellion spreading from the Han ethnic to the Korean ethnic in Korea proper through Korean intermediataries in Liadong. In that case, the removal of the Koreans from Liadong by a Korean government would be essentially a "firebreak" against further cross-cultural "contamination" of socially and religously dangerous ideas. Or else, the division between Sedentary Han and Sedentary Koreans was not all that sharp and the Goreyo just evacuated everyone, Han included, as a scorched earth tactic, with the Han relocated into the Korean interior later becoming assimilated.

So it's reasonable to assume that around 500,000 to a million Koreans would have continuously resided within Liaodong from the late 13th to mid-14th centuries.

You've made a compelling case for this. Maybe not 500,000 but I will assume 350,000 for the sake of TTL.

I'm not saying that the Jurchen only lived in Eastern Manchuria, but rather that the main groups that possessed enough resources to establish a loose entity and raid/invade other states were located in the east. Many of the Jurchen that had resided within Liaodong until the 13th century would also have been massacred during the Mongol advance.

But some would not be and the population would have recovered. Not every conquest, even a Mongol conquest, resulted in wholesale population replacement.

I've already mentioned most of the details above, and while many of the initial emigrants were defected soldiers or aristocrats, the vast majority of the individuals who fled afterward during multiple waves were peasants attempting to escape the chaos, as the northernmost regions came close to being depopulated after multiple Mongol invasions.

OK, conceded.

Also, significant depopulations within East Asia weren't exactly rare. Focusing only on Manchuria, after Goguryeo collapsed in 668, the Tang forcibly relocated 200,000-250,000 Goguryeo individuals to the Yangtze and Gansu, after which 2/3 were moved back to Liaodong, who were then re-exiled to Gansu and the Western Regions (Xiyu), all within 13 years.

The orders were given, but was it actually carried out? Ming and Qing records for similliarly recorded imperially mandated population movements tend to show that only rarely were the movements fully carried out (The Dzhungar genocide and resttelement with Taranchi/Han/Hui/Bannermen being an exception). Generally, when population are "ordered" to return to sites from which they have been officially expelled, it's an indication that they are already doing so and that the imperial authrities can't stop them and are trying to save face.

Hundreds of thousands more were also relocated within Manchuria or dispersed elsewhere across China, all within, although millions who remained revolted and founded Balhae in 698. In the early 10th century, up to a million refugees may have fled Balhae into Goryeo after a catastrophic eruption on Baekdu Mountain and the ensuing invasion from the Liao, although a Liaodong remnant continued to exist for almost five decades, and the Balhae ethnic group continued to be recorded within Liao, Jin, and Yuan records. Later, around 3.39 million Han Chinese (after over two centuries of immigration) are estimated to have resided within Manchuria by 1640 or so, although this later plummeted to around 160,000 by 1660 due to the Manchu invasions, the vast majority of which would have been due to emigration/expulsion rather than large-scale massacres.

I have different figure for 1660 (swallows and settlers). Where are you getting yours? I suspect that the sharp drop is more a case of registration avoidance than actual migration/flight.


As a sidenote, however, recent estimates of the Manchu population around 1640 center around 500,000 (compared with 500,000 Mongols within northwestern Manchuria), suggesting that the Jurchen during the 14th century may actually have numbered significantly less than a million, even after taking assimilations and migrations into account.

Again, my numbers are significantly different (larger) and make more sense to me given what we know of the size of the early Qing active millitary formations. Where are you getting yours?


Anyway, next post will focus on the Yangtze, and will attach a mark#3 map with corrections
 
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yboxman

Banned
#2: interesting times



The death of Zhang Sicheng 張士誠; prior to the planned assault on Nanking threw the newly established kingdom of Dazhou into an acute crisis. Zhang Shi, nominal heir to the throne, was only 7 years old (1) and could obviously serve as no more than a symbol. His three uncles, Zhang Shiyi (张士義), Zhang Shide (张士德), and Zhang Shixin (张士信) formed a regency council and divided between themselves control of the Six ministries, with the ministries of Personnel, Justice and Rites controlled by Zhang Shiyi and his appointees, that of War and Revenue by Zhang Shide (2) and the youngest, Zhang Shixin assuming control of the Ministry of Works (3).

The immediate challenge of the new regime was to throw back Zhu Yuanzhang's forces, who had sought to use the crisis caused by of Zhang Sicheng's death to capture Gaoyou and cut off Dazhou from the Grand Canal. He acted prematurely, however, before his administration over Nanking had been secured and Zhang Shide's brilliant generalship beat his forces back to the very gates of his capital (4).

It was this feat which enabled Zhang Shide to gain near complete control over the kingdom's field armies. It was his diplomatic masterstroke, however, which assured his dominance of the regency council, and secured the fortunes of the Kingdom.

Hannyang , empire of Tianwan, February 1357
The man who paces the floors of the place is the most powerful rebel leader in all of China, perhaps ruling over more men and commanding more soldiers than the Great Yuan themselves… if that is, he could only trust them.

"I cannot believe he turned against me."

Xu Shouhui was once a great leader of men, whose words inspired millions of faithful followers. Now, he is a a shattered shell of the man he once was and it is his awareness of this sad truth which causes him to bury his face in his hands as he contemplates the death of his once trusted lieutenant Ni Yenjun.

"Is it not written that when the milofo comes the deceiver shall seek to cloud the minds of men and turn them against him? Those who are pure of heart may resist his blandishments, but those who are weak in their faith shall fall to his wiles. They are many. And they must be cleansed"

Numbly, Xu Shouhui stares at the long, long lists of execution orders before him. Many among them are men he thought loyal to him… as was Ni Yenjun. As is the man standing before Him, Chen Youliang. Or is he? Are they? Who can he trust?

"So many?" he asks quietly, trying to gauge the situation.

"I cannot be too careful of your safety, Zhiping. But be not discomforted! Even as the weak who are near turn to the deceiver, those are distant turn towards their deliverer. Zhang Shide, regent of Dazhou, has seen the errors of his ways and offers tribute and submission to your will (5). As soon as peace is established between him and your servant Zhu Yuanzhang, he will annually send you salt and silver, Grain and silk to show his filial devotion to your rule"

Xu Shouhui is silent, his mind racing. If news of this offer has reached Chen before it reached him then that without a doubt means that he is no longer in control of his own palace. Is this why Chen chose this moment to inform him?

"You have settled on an appropriate amount, I take it?"

Chen Youliang suppresses a grimace and reminds himself of the virtue of patience. However irritating he may find his emperor's blinking, watery eyes, the man before him, even reduced is no fool. He must realize, at some level, that he is being maneuvered into eliminating all who might stand against Chen other than Ming Yuzhen and Zhu Yuanzhang, even as he realizes that bucking Chen's purge might discomfort Chen but be a near immediate death sentence for him.

"I've held some preliminary discussions pursuant to your approval. Perhaps we might discuss the matter further after you sign the list"?

Slowly, unwillingly, Xu Shouhui fixes the imperial seal to the excecution orders, and to his own fate.

(1) Nope, no sources supporting this. Just a straight age based extrapolation from the Hungwu emperor's progeny.
(2) Which are much the same thing at this timepoint given the shakedown and pillage basis of warlord taxation away from the major cities.
(3) I imagine you can guess who the dominant member of this Troika is.
(4) Pretty much OTL, but he has the advantage of playing defense in the initial campaign and not having his older brother act as a back seat driver.
(5) Zhang Sicheng tried to become a tributary of Zhu Yuanzhang following his defeat in the 1356-1357 conflict, but Zhu refused, presumably because he wanted direct control of the Yangtze delta and the Salt producing pans and because he trusted Zhang Sicheng and his offer about as far as he could throw him. TTL, Dazhou does somewhat better in the conflict, and Zhang Shide realizes that paying tribute to a distant overlord who has a vested intrest in preventing a capable subordinate from growing TOO powerful is a better idea and would get better reception.
 
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yboxman

Banned
Map mark#4

chaos3.jpg

Dark Red- Northern Red turbans

Light Red- Southern Red turbans/Tianwan empire and factions thereof

Green- Yuan and Mongol warlords (and no, I'm not messing with the Korean border)

Blue- indpendent rebels/warlords

Orange- Isphan rebellion

Overlaps, and open spaces with no clear ruler are intentional

chaos3.jpg
 
Aye. but my understanding is that Koreas conquest/liberation/reacquisition of the Northern territories took place in 1356-1357, prior to the POD. As the situation develops I will show Korea expanding northwards.

What sources are you relying on?

I've stated this before, but while that assumption is true for the northeast, it is incorrect for the northwest and Jeju (Tamra until 1294).

This map indicates possessions at the beginning of Gongmin's reign in 1351 (in green), as the northwest was returned by the Yuan in 1290, and the island in 1295. The pink region below the wall was taken back from the Mongols in the 4th month of 1356, while the other regions colored in pink were gradually conquered by 1388 from the Jurchen.

This map specifies the dates for areas temporarily under Yuan administration, although the “Tamra” administration was only in name post-1290, while Goryeo had renamed the island to Jeju in 1294 (as stated above), and records indicate that the Korean court continued to retain control over it despite a minor independent Yuan military presence.

This is a series of maps, and the relevant portion is from 5:22-30 (1369-90) and 5:31-39 (1390-1456).

Ah, I see, that was not my intention. Don't know why that rebel faction chose "Jin" as their state name but I think they were referring to five dynasties and 10 kingdoms (Tang-Song interregnum) state from which the Jurchen Jin dynasty derived it's name. OTOH, it might have been an attempt to gain the support of Jurchen, or other Jin loyalists still living in Liaodong.

Thanks for the clarification.

The Han, Wei and Jin (not the Jurchen or Song-Tang interregnum Jin, the 3rd-5th century dynasty) ruled it for seven or eight centuries fairly continuously. That's more than enough time for a population and language to establish itself, even given later domination by another polity. Especially when most of the polities dominating it later were essentially nomad dominated confederations (yes, including Goguryeo).

Where are you getting seven to eight centuries from? The Han had conquered Gojoseon in 108 BC, while the Sima Jin lost Liaodong shortly after the Wu Hu invasions (304-16), equal to a duration of four centuries, or only half of the time period that you're suggesting. The Yan (Warring States) conquered Liaoxi, not Liaodong, from Gojoseon around 300 BC, while the Qin only temporarily conquered Liaodong before eventually losing it in the turmoil shortly after the dynasty's collapse, as records from the Han indicate that the border was west of the Liao River. Additionally, there were major population transfers from Liaodong to China proper by the Cao Wei after the Gongsun clan was exterminated in 238, suggesting a significantly reduced presence, while Goguryeo also managed to seize most of Liaodong by the mid-4th century and conquered the remainder by 404.

For a visual representation, this series of maps (same as the above) indicate that Liaodong remained firmly under Korean control until 108 BC (until 1:30), while Han Chinese political control only lasted for four centuries (1:31-2:08). The peninsula then remained under Goguryeo control until 668 (2:09-3:20), specifically fully controlled after 2:18, with sporadic uprisings thereafter (3:21-30) until Balhae (initially Jin) was established in 698 (3:31-40), which eventually retook Liaodong in the 8th century and held it until 926 (4:01-26). However, various contemporary sources indicate that Liaodong was controlled by a Goguryeo remnant (Lesser Goguryeo) from 699-820 before it was conquered by Balhae, while rebellions within Liaodong continued to flare well into the 12th century (4:27-5:12), indicating a lasting local Korean presence for at least two centuries post-926.

Regarding population, around 500,000-1.5 million individuals resided within Liaodong from the 5th-10th century (with a major dip in the 7th century), while Goguryeo's population was around 5 million by 600, and Balhae's population (the vast majority of whom were former Goguryeo individuals or those who had assimilated) would have grown from around 3 to 5-6 million during its existence. Most of the Han Chinese within Liaodong would have gradually assimilated for around a millennia under non-Han rule, in addition to significant immigrations from settlers further east and south. Additionally, a Tang envoy to Goguryeo in 641 does not record a significant Han Chinese presence, only visiting POWs after the Sui-Goguryeo War, despite extensively touring the country, indicating that assimilation and immigration from elsewhere remained the norm. Countless rebellions also flared within Liaodong after the fall of Goguryeo and Balhae, while Lesser Goguryeo remained firmly entrenched for over a century independently of Balhae and the Tang (which the latter could have directly incorporated had a major Han Chinese presence existed), all suggesting a quite sizable Korean presence for well over six centuries.

As far as I know, the Kitans/Liao administered Liaodong in the same manner as they did the eighteen perfectures, as did the Jurchen/Jin.

Not at all. The Liao had actually adopted the idea of five capitals from Balhae (although not their specific locations), and established Dongdan (926-36), a puppet government encompassing Balhae residents (presumably reduced to a million or so after the volcano devastated Eastern Manchuria, the Khitan invaded, and a million refugees fled to Goryeo), and Dongdan's capital was relocated to Liaoyang in 928 for better governance, indicating that a significant urban Balhae presence had remained. The peninsula was also governed separately from the sixteen prefectures as part of the northern administration, with hundreds of thousands of Balhae residents (hence the frequent uprisings), while virtually all of the Han Chinese were governed by the southern administration. Also, Liaodong was not governed by Han officials, and continued to be subject under nomadic administration through Dongjing. Meanwhile, the Jin utilized a high number of Balhae officials, while earlier rulers married Balhae individuals, in addition to the ethnic group within the region consistently appearing within contemporary records, indicating that there were more than enough (100,000+) who had not assimilated for centuries.

While some Han Chinese may have immigrated to Liaodong during the Liao, Jin, and Yuan, they wouldn't have been significant because the peninsula continued to be governed by nomadic administrations (separately from China Proper) for centuries, and was considered to be nomadic territory due to its location north of the former Great Wall and its proximity to the core nomadic regions of the Khitan, Jurchen, and Mongols. None of the dynasties record a significant Han Chinese population nor Chinese officials in the region.

Maybe they weren't mentioned because they were taken for granted and immigrated without imperial intervention? I can't see how the Northern Red Turbans could have taken over the peninsula in 1359, let alone invade across the Yalu in such force if a pre-existing population base susceptible to their message (Ie; speaking their language and sharing kinship network ties) wasn't the majority, or at least a large minority of the population. Isn't it likely that under both Jurchen and Yuan rule immigration to the peninsula from North CHina took place as it did under the Qing?

I've addressed the Red Turbans below.

Significant Han Chinese immigration into Liaodong before the Ming also doesn't make sense because there were no major boundaries (Great Wall, Willow Palisade) within Manchuria. Given that the Khitan, Jurchen, and Mongols were all located adjacent to Liaodong, nothing would have stopped masses of Han Chinese from flooding further into Manchuria after extensively settling the peninsula, or at least stirring up tensions with the nomads during periods of extensive settlement. Archaeological evidence of settlements within the region during the Liao, Jin, and Yuan (up to the 13th century) also suggest a relatively small population in the hundreds of thousands, not well over a million as would have been the case with major waves of Chinese migrations. All of this indicates that the Han Chinese remained generally uninterested in settling Liaodong before the Ming.

OK, Fair enough. Goreyo sending 2000 troops into North China without dealing with insurgency in Liadong can be explained by Yuan dictate (looks like they were keeping Korean princes in Liaodong as a gun aimed at the head of the ruling Goreyo monarch, allowing him to bring troops into Liaodong would have defeated that purpose). But any insurgents operating in Liaodong would have generated unrest south of the Yalu and have shown up on the radar of Toghtua Bukha. So possibly the Red Turbans didn't reach there or erupt until 1359. Damned if I can understand HOW they did it without a pre-existing base or controlling the Land connection Between the Yellow river valley and Liaodong but it won't effect the outcome of the post 1359 situation much either way. Consider the Jin deleted until then.

Glad I could clarify.

Hmmm... an interesting POD would be the Red Turbans never breaking out into Liaodong and the governors maintaining power. That would have complicated Ming-Northern Yuan-Joeson/Goreyo relations. But not relevent for TTL. the Northern Red Turbans will still have a Northern breakout TTL in 1859, it may even be farther reaching and more lasting.

But the Red Turbans were running extremely low on supplies, which I had addressed later on.

Interesting. OK, I accept the presence of a large Korean population in Liaodong, though I still suspect they are outnumbered by the Han. This population may or may not play a greater role TTL.

Even more interesting. So you are claiming the main motive for invading Goreyo was the flight of the local Korean population from Liaodong? I knew the Red Turban army was basically scrounging for supplies but this puts a different spin on things. You're saying most of the Army that invaded Goreyo were not Local Han with families of their own to support but effectively a rampaging horde cut off from their roots in mainland China.

Yes. The Red Turbans within Liaodong were in an extremely weak position because the locals refused to cooperate. This wouldn't have made sense if the Han Chinese had revolted beforehand or were willing to aid the rebels, in turn suggesting that they would have been outnumbered by the locals in the region (Koreans, Jurchen, Mongols, etc).

Well, it could make sense, if you view the Red turban invasion into Korea as a rebellion spreading from the Han ethnic to the Korean ethnic in Korea proper through Korean intermediataries in Liadong. In that case, the removal of the Koreans from Liadong by a Korean government would be essentially a "firebreak" against further cross-cultural "contamination" of socially and religously dangerous ideas. Or else, the division between Sedentary Han and Sedentary Koreans was not all that sharp and the Goreyo just evacuated everyone, Han included, as a scorched earth tactic, with the Han relocated into the Korean interior later becoming assimilated.

But this only confirms that the Han Chinese who had resided within Liaodong most likely had assimilated over time, and were also willing to cooperate with Goryeo troops given that they had easily swept through the region with virtually no resistance from the locals. Neither suggests that the Han Chinese would have composed a large majority.

You've made a compelling case for this. Maybe not 500,000 but I will assume 350,000 for the sake of TTL.

While this is an extremely low estimate, it should be fine for now.

500,000 might also work after adding Balhae residents (see above), who would have retained close affinities due to shared language and customs.

But some would not be and the population would have recovered. Not every conquest, even a Mongol conquest, resulted in wholesale population replacement.

I realize that, but extrapolating backwards from the source provided below, the Jurchen would probably have numbered several hundred thousand by the 14th century, of which the vast majority would have resided west of Liaodong, given the events at the time. That suggests less than 100,000 Jurchen within the region, or a relatively small minority.

OK, conceded.

Again, glad I could clarify.

The orders were given, but was it actually carried out? Ming and Qing records for similliarly recorded imperially mandated population movements tend to show that only rarely were the movements fully carried out (The Dzhungar genocide and resttelement with Taranchi/Han/Hui/Bannermen being an exception). Generally, when population are "ordered" to return to sites from which they have been officially expelled, it's an indication that they are already doing so and that the imperial authrities can't stop them and are trying to save face.

Certainly. The three major migrations from Liaodong to China occurred because of repeated uprisings, and after bringing most of them back in an attempt to stabilize the restless populace, they were forcibly moved back to China again after another major revolt, indicating that the Tang had an extremely difficult time governing Liaodong at the time. The large distances involved also make it extremely unlikely for the migrants to travel on their own accord, and even if they had done so, this wouldn't have made a difference in terms of the number who had relocated. While many were relocated to Yingzhou, within Liaoxi, major evictions later occurred to the east, which also concurs with the fact that Dae Jo-yeong founded Jin (later Balhae) on Dongmo Mountain, which was located deep within Eastern Manchuria, despite the fact that the east had been sparsely populated before then, while many of the major cities were located within the east, despite the fact that the exact opposite was true during Goguryeo. Additionally, Li Zhengji (born in Yingzhou), who was of Goguryeo descent, established the state of Qi within Shandong in 765 (encompassing 5.4 million people, virtually all Han Chinese), eventually controlling 100,000 troops (many of Goguryeo descent with civilian families), while Balhae sent 54 diplomatic missions and sold thousands of horses. His descendants then governed the region until 819, indicating the migrants' entrenchment for decades. All of the above indicate that hundreds of thousands of Goguryeo migrants were spread out across China.

I have different figure for 1660 (swallows and settlers). Where are you getting yours? I suspect that the sharp drop is more a case of registration avoidance than actual migration/flight.

Here's my source (page 23). Estimates from the 17th to 20th centuries (thoroughly explained throughout the text) are derived from a variety of factors.

Again, my numbers are significantly different (larger) and make more sense to me given what we know of the size of the early Qing active millitary formations. Where are you getting yours?

I want to ask you the same question.

In any case, the Manchus had began to incorporate other nomadic tribes into their army as early as the Battle of Dalinghe (1631), and did not raise significantly more than 100,000 troops (including non-Jurchen/Manchu) before breaking through the Great Wall in 1644. I don't think that's entirely unreasonable with a total population of 0.5 million.
 

yboxman

Banned
I've stated this before, but while that assumption is true for the northeast, it is incorrect for the northwest and Jeju (Tamra until 1294).


I stand corrected. All right, noted, not that it will make much of a difference ITTL.

Where are you getting seven to eight centuries from? The Yan (Warring States) conquered Liaoxi, not Liaodong, from Gojoseon around 300 BC, while the Qin only temporarily conquered Liaodong

My understanding (admittedly Wikipedia based, Korean history at that early a period is not part of my knowledge base) was that the first Yan state conquered Liaodong as well as Liaoxi http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gojoseon–Yan_War, that the Qin inherited their conquests more or less Intact, and that the Han may have conquered Gojoseon only in 108 BCE but that they already held Liaodong for a considerable period before that (since it landed troops and marched them through Liaodong unopposed).

Now this is obviously not my area of historical expertise and I am prepared to defer to your superior knowledge of Iron age Korean history but can you show me specific sources showing continued Gojoseon control over Liaodong between 300BCE-100BCE?

while the Sima Jin lost Liaodong shortly after the Wu Hu invasions (304-16) while Goguryeo also managed to seize most of Liaodong by the mid-4th century and conquered the remainder by 404.

Well, here's the thing. And I realize I may be going out on a limb here because, yet again, Korean history this early is not my area of expertise. I realize the Goguryeo have been identified as "Korean" by Korean histiriography. And maybe that is true in some ingusitic and ethnic sense. But we are still speaking about a dynasty whose origins main millitary forces, elites, cultual identification, etc, are essentially those of semi nomadic herder and hunter tribes, even if they conquered more settled sedentary populations in North Korea proper and Liandong, right? I mean are they really any more "Korean" in the sense of a sedentary culture with a defined "official" cultual identity than the Jin, Liao and Yuan dynasties were "Chinese"? Ditto for Balhae.

For our purposes, would they have tried to impose an "official Korean nationality" on the Han living under their rule, or would they, as the aforementioned nomad derived dynasties, maintained themselves aloof from the cultural life and identity of their subjects until a relatively late period in their rule (by which point the Tang had already split them with Silla)?

Again, my admittedly superficial sources indicate that the Tang and some of the successor states (Yan, Later Tang) were able to recover control of the peninsula from the Balhae at various time points. My impression is therefore that this territory was at least a border region that frequently changed hands, not one where Korean identity would have had time to establish itself strongly over earlier Han populations. For that matter, the main polities between which the territory changed hands were, since the Han dynasty, Manchurian nomad based empires who exercised control over parts of North Korea, and various Chinese dynasties and warlords.

While rebellions within Liaodong continued to flare well into the 12th century (4:27-5:12), indicating a lasting local Korean presence for at least two centuries post-926.

Well, it's indicative of strong local power structures, and weak imperial central control by the Nomad empires. I'm not sure how indicative it is of distinctly "Korean" rather than "Han" or a uniquely local hybrid culture.

Countless rebellions also flared within Liaodong after the fall of Goguryeo and Balhae, while Lesser Goguryeo remained firmly entrenched for over a century independently of Balhae and the Tang (which the latter could have directly incorporated had a major Han Chinese presence existed), all suggesting a quite sizable Korean presence for well over six centuries.

Lesser Goguryeo Is a strong indication of a large and powerful population of self identifying "Koreans" in the peninsula at that time period at least. I'm not sure that Tang not incorporating them meant few Han lived there, after all they incoporated Annam without a strong Han presence.

The Jin utilized a high number of Balhae officials, while earlier rulers married Balhae individuals, in addition to the ethnic group within the region consistently appearing within contemporary records, indicating that there were more than enough (100,000+) who had not assimilated for centuries.

I would argue that the Non-assimilation of the Balhae indicates that their identity and customs were not truely "Korean" and hence that they would not have (successfully) imposed their identity on previous Han sedentary populations any more than they did in Korea proper.

Significant Han Chinese immigration into Liaodong before the Ming also doesn't make sense because there were no major boundaries (Great Wall, Willow Palisade) within Manchuria. Given that the Khitan, Jurchen, and Mongols were all located adjacent to Liaodong, nothing would have stopped masses of Han Chinese from flooding further into Manchuria after extensively settling the peninsula, or at least stirring up tensions with the nomads during periods of extensive settlement.

Wouldn't significant Korean immigration have done the same? My impression is that the primary barrier to sedentary settlement of Manchuria north of Liadong was a combination of climatic factors (Rice inappropriate, other cereals having short growing season) and the nomads having sufficient fighting power to push back agianst unorganized settlers until various farming improvements and gunpowder and the introduction of New world crops (not so much in Manchuria, but enabling greater population densities and therefore outflow further south) gave the sedentary populations an edge against the Nomads during the 15 century.

Archaeological evidence of settlements within the region during the Liao, Jin, and Yuan (up to the 13th century) also suggest a relatively small population in the hundreds of thousands, not well over a million as would have been the case with major waves of Chinese migrations. All of this indicates that the Han Chinese remained generally uninterested in settling Liaodong before the Ming.

Again, why would Korean immigration have resulted in a smaller sedentary population than Han immigration within this relatively small geographic region?


Anyway, this discussion is truly fascinating and getting me to learn thing I never knew I didn't know but for the sake of TTL, let's keep focused on the situation in the 14th century in the Yuan collapse era. Let me say that you have convinced me that Koreans, or a Korean associated socio-political identity was the dominant group under the Yuan and during their collapse, that the Korean rank and file made up a large, perhaps the largest, proportion of the peninsula's population and that I will take that into account when I get to the escapades of the Northern Red turbans after the 1359 northern expedition

But the Red Turbans were running extremely low on supplies, which I had addressed later on. The Red Turbans within Liaodong were in an extremely weak position because the locals refused to cooperate. This wouldn't have made sense if the Han Chinese had revolted beforehand or were willing to aid the rebels, in turn suggesting that they would have been outnumbered by the locals in the region (Koreans, Jurchen, Mongols, etc).

Well, that's one possibility. the other possibility is that the population base was too small, regardless of it's ethnic identity, to support the vast horde which later invaded Korea (200,000 according to Korean sources though that was probably exaggerated). The question which bugs me is what possible motive could this group of Red Turbans have had to cross Inner Mongolia and Southern Manchuria to reach Liaodong unless they had some prior contact with local rebels?

But this only confirms that the Han Chinese who had resided within Liaodong most likely had assimilated over time, and were also willing to cooperate with Goryeo troops given that they had easily swept through the region with virtually no resistance from the locals.

And why were the local "Koreans"/Yuan loyalists unable to stop them from taking over and launching an invasion across the Yalu if there was no large local rebel movement within their lines of defence? For that matter, how the hell did they get to Liandong from Dadu? it's not like the intervening countryside had abundant supplies. I've got no sources supporting this scenario but perhaps a small group reached Liandong overland and then called for reinforcements from Shangdong only to find out it couldn't feed them all? that would at least make some kind of casual and logistical sense.


Here's my source (page 23). Estimates from the 17th to 20th centuries (thoroughly explained throughout the text) are derived from a variety of factors.

Interesting. I Guess I need to check the primary sources.

I want to ask you the same question.

Well, for Qing and mid-late Ming era population estimates I'm relying mostly on "Swallows and settlers" which focuses on Han immigration into Manchuria and "empire on the margins" which examines the role of geographically peripharial populations in imperial affairs during the Ming and Qing. For early Ming on a number of general Ming dynasty and Yongle and Hongwu reign specific books and a slew of Jstor articles specific to the issue such as this http://www.chinaheritagequarterly.org/030/features/pdf/Early Colonization In Manchuria.pdf . For the late Yuan period and earlier....:eek:

Hmmm, well frankly I sort of made a number of assumptions which are unsupported by period period specialized sources. It's an interesting subject in and of itself but frankly I was kind of inadvertantly aiming at an outcome where the issue does not become relevant or majorly divergent from OTL ITTL until the mid 15th century.

In any case, the Manchus had began to incorporate other nomadic tribes into their army as early as the Battle of Dalinghe (1631), and did not raise significantly more than 100,000 troops (including non-Jurchen/Manchu) before breaking through the Great Wall in 1644. I don't think that's entirely unreasonable with a total population of 0.5 million.

I think it is. assuming 100,000 troops based on 500,000 Jurchens is a fifth of your population. That basically means every adult, non elderly, sickly or young males. Even 60% of that number (taking into account Mongols, Han and Koreans) is incredibly high. I'll grant you that tribal herding societies have a high mobilization rate but 20%, or even 12% is pushing it, even Ghenghis Khan didn't get near this proportion, not for a generation long campaign with active troops, anyway. Given that almost all of those troops were actively engaged for more than a generation in conquering the Ming and putting down Han rebellions that leaves next to nothing to guarding the home front, hunting and herding (children and women can't do all the work, even in herding socieites), and protecting tribal stomping grounds from rival clans.

But, again, we are diverging from the main issue and fascinating as this is I do kind of want to progress with the TL. So how about we take a raincheck on Debating Manchurian demographics until I get to the 1380s or so?
 
(In the interest of time, non-English sources will not be translated.)

I stand corrected. All right, noted, not that it will make much of a difference ITTL.

Glad I could help.

My understanding (admittedly Wikipedia based, Korean history at that early a period is not part of my knowledge base) was that the first Yan state conquered Liaodong as well as Liaoxi http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gojoseon–Yan_War, that the Qin inherited their conquests more or less Intact, and that the Han may have conquered Gojoseon only in 108 BCE but that they already held Liaodong for a considerable period before that (since it landed troops and marched them through Liaodong unopposed).

Now this is obviously not my area of historical expertise and I am prepared to defer to your superior knowledge of Iron age Korean history but can you show me specific sources showing continued Gojoseon control over Liaodong between 300BCE-100BCE?

That's not what you had said earlier, though. You had specified 700-800 years of Chinese control through the Han-Wei-Jin, not Yan-Qin. Your duration would require political control starting from 500-400 BC, which is not supported at all by historical/archaeological evidence. Six centuries would be the absolute max (although extremely unlikely).

For records about Gojoseon pre-108 BC, all of the Chinese primary sources detail rivers and settlements for Liaoxi, but curiously do not for Liaodong. For example, the Records of the Grand Historian state that the Yan "conquered" Gojoseon (without specifying territory), while the Qin "controlled" Liaodong, and that the border was eventually withdrawn to the vicinity of the Pei River (浿水) during the Han (implying the situation before the Qin had invaded). Because the river is detailed elsewhere as flowing eastward into the ocean, that rules out the Yalu and Liao, while the Taedong doesn't make sense because Wanggeomseong (Pyongyang) was located along the river. The alternatives are the Daling or the Luan, both west of the Liao, implying that because China's possessions within the region were centered around the two rivers, the Han controlled Liaoxi, but not Liaodong.

Archeological evidence also indicates that Gojoseon's influence extended both west and east of the Liao River (corresponding to Chinese sources stating that the original capital was located on a nearby river before it was relocated to Wanggeomseong) after the Yan invasion. Additionally, artifacts within Liaodong closely resembling ones unearthed within the Korean peninsula are dated from at least the 8th to the 2nd century BC, corresponding to Chinese sources stating that Weiman (Wiman), who had followed "barbarian" customs, fled from the Yan to Gojoseon before eventually taking the throne after a coup, indicating that Liaodong remained firmly under Gojoseon cultural and political influence.

The records at the time also state that the first invasion in 109 BC failed altogether, while reference to at least two Gojoseon army divisions suggest a highly organized military. It was not until officials defected to the Han after conflicts between political factions and the ruler was assassinated (by a disgruntled official) that China was able to take advantage of the chaos to conquer the state, although Wanggeomseong held out for a month, suggesting that infighting (not logistics) was the biggest reason for Gojoseon's demise.

Well, here's the thing. And I realize I may be going out on a limb here because, yet again, Korean history this early is not my area of expertise. I realize the Goguryeo have been identified as "Korean" by Korean histiriography. And maybe that is true in some ingusitic and ethnic sense. But we are still speaking about a dynasty whose origins main millitary forces, elites, cultual identification, etc, are essentially those of semi nomadic herder and hunter tribes, even if they conquered more settled sedentary populations in North Korea proper and Liandong, right? I mean are they really any more "Korean" in the sense of a sedentary culture with a defined "official" cultual identity than the Jin, Liao and Yuan dynasties were "Chinese"? Ditto for Balhae.

For our purposes, would they have tried to impose an "official Korean nationality" on the Han living under their rule, or would they, as the aforementioned nomad derived dynasties, maintained themselves aloof from the cultural life and identity of their subjects until a relatively late period in their rule (by which point the Tang had already split them with Silla)?

Again, my admittedly superficial sources indicate that the Tang and some of the successor states (Yan, Later Tang) were able to recover control of the peninsula from the Balhae at various time points. My impression is therefore that this territory was at least a border region that frequently changed hands, not one where Korean identity would have had time to establish itself strongly over earlier Han populations. For that matter, the main polities between which the territory changed hands were, since the Han dynasty, Manchurian nomad based empires who exercised control over parts of North Korea, and various Chinese dynasties and warlords.

While Goguryeo was semi-nomadic until the early-mid 5th century or so, this was certainly not the case afterwards, as its population (the vast majority of whom were culturally Korean) grew from three to five million within two centuries, and began to rely heavily on an extensive string of fortifications. Neither resemble conditions for a nomadic dynasty, as the Khitan, Jurchen, and Mongols each did not number much more than one million, and heavily favored cavalry warfare out in the open field due to maintaining similar living conditions for centuries. Specifically, before the war against the Sui, Goguryeo had continuously maintained four main lines of fortifications for well over a century along the Liao River, between the river and the Qian Shan mountain range, the mountain range, and the swamp regions of the Liao River Valley. During the war against the Tang, they were then rearranged to three along the Liao, the Thousand-li Wall, and the Yalu, due to major deficiencies uncovered during the war with the Sui. While not all of the fortresses are extant, the Samguk Sagi records that 60 far to the north were captured by the Tang in the second month of 668, and lists 165 former Goguryeo settlements (including villages) within the peninsula, suggesting that the state had well over 200 fortresses (the entire Korean peninsula, including Goguryeo territory, had over 400 settlements, with 100-200 fortresses), as the vast majority were concentrated within Liaodong. Given that a significant Han Chinese presence ceased to exist within Liaodong after Cao Wei relocations, depopulations after the Wu Hu invasions, and wars by the Former and Later Yan, it becomes clear that the region had been extensively settled by culturally Korean settlers.

On the other hand, Balhae's core base and a significant proportion of its population was located deep within Eastern Manchuria, with four out of its five capitals located deep within forests and mountains. Neither terrain was conducive to nomadic warfare, and records indicate that it had an extensive administrative system, with virtually all of the uncovered archaeological settlements within Eastern Manchuria. In contrast, Wanyan Aguda established the Jin after establishing a firm Jurchen base in what is now Harbin (Central Manchuria), which was more suited to nomadic warfare, and faced difficulties when invading the Korean peninsula due to an abundance of mountains in the northeast.

Well, it's indicative of strong local power structures, and weak imperial central control by the Nomad empires. I'm not sure how indicative it is of distinctly "Korean" rather than "Han" or a uniquely local hybrid culture.

I haven't read anything suggesting that the insurrections were anything other than culturally Balhae individuals expressing dissent during times of turmoil.

Lesser Goguryeo Is a strong indication of a large and powerful population of self identifying "Koreans" in the peninsula at that time period at least. I'm not sure that Tang not incorporating them meant few Han lived there, after all they incoporated Annam without a strong Han presence.

But this only suggests that "Koreans" were essentially a majority in the region, as I can't think of a case where a unified dynasty would voluntarily leave a majority Han Chinese region politically independent for over a century without any major military conflicts. There must have been a strong Korean presence for the Tang to justify non-intervention.

I would argue that the Non-assimilation of the Balhae indicates that their identity and customs were not truely "Korean" and hence that they would not have (successfully) imposed their identity on previous Han sedentary populations any more than they did in Korea proper.

Why? Balhae individuals within Eastern Manchuria continued to remain just as sedentary as their counterparts within Liaodong, and would have heavily outnumbered the nomadic tribes residing within their territory, if not assimilating them gradually over centuries. The latter also continued to retain extensive urban settlements long after the fall because Eastern Manchuria had been thoroughly destroyed after the eruption on Baekdu Mountain, after which most in the east would have gradually assimilated to nomadic customs.

Wouldn't significant Korean immigration have done the same? My impression is that the primary barrier to sedentary settlement of Manchuria north of Liadong was a combination of climatic factors (Rice inappropriate, other cereals having short growing season) and the nomads having sufficient fighting power to push back agianst unorganized settlers until various farming improvements and gunpowder and the introduction of New world crops (not so much in Manchuria, but enabling greater population densities and therefore outflow further south) gave the sedentary populations an edge against the Nomads during the 15 century.

It did (5:50-59). Limitations in agriculture didn't prevent Koreans from expanding into other areas within Manchuria, while military force wasn't an option.

Again, why would Korean immigration have resulted in a smaller sedentary population than Han immigration within this relatively small geographic region?


Anyway, this discussion is truly fascinating and getting me to learn thing I never knew I didn't know but for the sake of TTL, let's keep focused on the situation in the 14th century in the Yuan collapse era. Let me say that you have convinced me that Koreans, or a Korean associated socio-political identity was the dominant group under the Yuan and during their collapse, that the Korean rank and file made up a large, perhaps the largest, proportion of the peninsula's population and that I will take that into account when I get to the escapades of the Northern Red turbans after the 1359 northern expedition

Because the Korean population itself had almost been wiped out in the Mongol invasions? I had stated earlier that the population had plummeted from 10-12 to 4-5 million.

You may choose to ignore conditions pre-14th century, but many of the conditions that you're describing in the 1300s are cumulations of events centuries before then.

Well, that's one possibility. the other possibility is that the population base was too small, regardless of it's ethnic identity, to support the vast horde which later invaded Korea (200,000 according to Korean sources though that was probably exaggerated). The question which bugs me is what possible motive could this group of Red Turbans have had to cross Inner Mongolia and Southern Manchuria to reach Liaodong unless they had some prior contact with local rebels?

I don't see why the rebels would need to go through Inner Mongolia to the north, as Liaodong was in the east.

Anyway, it seems as if the rebels had taken a route from Shandong to Liaodong either along the coastline or through maritime routes, but don't quote me on that.

And why were the local "Koreans"/Yuan loyalists unable to stop them from taking over and launching an invasion across the Yalu if there was no large local rebel movement within their lines of defence? For that matter, how the hell did they get to Liandong from Dadu? it's not like the intervening countryside had abundant supplies. I've got no sources supporting this scenario but perhaps a small group reached Liandong overland and then called for reinforcements from Shangdong only to find out it couldn't feed them all? that would at least make some kind of casual and logistical sense.

Because Liaodong had continued to remain demilitarized for all intents and purposes. None of the conflicts between Shenyang and Goryeo involved more than a few thousand troops, while the soldiers who participated were directly supplied by the Yuan court. It would have been very obvious had a rebel movement suddenly popped up in Liaodong.

Interesting. I Guess I need to check the primary sources.

Sure.

Well, for Qing and mid-late Ming era population estimates I'm relying mostly on "Swallows and settlers" which focuses on Han immigration into Manchuria and "empire on the margins" which examines the role of geographically peripharial populations in imperial affairs during the Ming and Qing. For early Ming on a number of general Ming dynasty and Yongle and Hongwu reign specific books and a slew of Jstor articles specific to the issue such as this http://www.chinaheritagequarterly.org/030/features/pdf/Early Colonization In Manchuria.pdf . For the late Yuan period and earlier....:eek:

Hmmm, well frankly I sort of made a number of assumptions which are unsupported by period period specialized sources. It's an interesting subject in and of itself but frankly I was kind of inadvertantly aiming at an outcome where the issue does not become relevant or majorly divergent from OTL ITTL until the mid 15th century.

As you've acknowledged, there are no sources indicating a significant Han Chinese presence centuries before the Ming, and I haven't seen indications after the 5th century either.

It's also difficult for me to follow your train of thought when you're making very strange assumptions about Korea as well (granted due to limited sources).

I think it is. assuming 100,000 troops based on 500,000 Jurchens is a fifth of your population. That basically means every adult, non elderly, sickly or young males. Even 60% of that number (taking into account Mongols, Han and Koreans) is incredibly high. I'll grant you that tribal herding societies have a high mobilization rate but 20%, or even 12% is pushing it, even Ghenghis Khan didn't get near this proportion, not for a generation long campaign with active troops, anyway. Given that almost all of those troops were actively engaged for more than a generation in conquering the Ming and putting down Han rebellions that leaves next to nothing to guarding the home front, hunting and herding (children and women can't do all the work, even in herding socieites), and protecting tribal stomping grounds from rival clans.

But, again, we are diverging from the main issue and fascinating as this is I do kind of want to progress with the TL. So how about we take a raincheck on Debating Manchurian demographics until I get to the 1380s or so?

The troops of Jurchen origin never numbered more than 60,000, and maybe not even that much given that Nurhaci seemed to inflate his figures for propaganda purposes.

I (as well as you) brought up details concerning Manchurian demographics because I had reasoned that it would be an extreme hassle for you to retcon everything chapters down the line. You seem to assume that the Han Chinese continued to number over a million within Manchuria even before 1370 or so, but I think I've thoroughly demonstrated that there is no evidence for this, in addition to the fact that the vast majority of the population residing within Liaodong continued to be non-Han Chinese for almost a millennia.

I have to work on my TL as well (for reference, my last chapter took up over 12 pages on Word), so I will be commenting less frequently from now on.
 
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