LBJ Dies Sometime Between December 1965 And December 1967.

[Glass Onion]

I've already asked about the consequences of a Johnson death in 1968, and I was wondering what the effect, if any, would be of an LBJ who lives long enough to have the high points of his Presidency, but not long enough to live to see 1968. I know, embedded here are various different scenario's with very different consequences. But it made more sense to give a range rather than to create multiple threads. So, my question is as the thread title suggests. Anytime between December 1965 and December 1967, President Johnson has a fatal heart attack. Vice President Hubert Humphrey is sworn in as his successor. I know random heart attacks are not the best tool in our kit, but considering Johnson's health history, in his case I think there might be some justification for it, especially given he had already suffered one in the fifties. While the answer to these questions will differ based on the precise date, I do have some very general preliminary questions.

1. How is Johnson viewed in the years following his death?
2. What of now President Humphrey? How does President Humphrey deal with the Vietnam mess he's inherited? And how long would his honeymoon period as President last? Would President Humphrey be able to keep the nomination? Would he be able to keep the Presidency?
3. How would Johnson's death change the 1968 political calculus if at all?

[Derek Jackson]

When did the 25th amendment come into force?

Had Humphrey adopted different aproaches to Vietnam how likely is it the the Repbulicans would run with 'the loss' of South Vietnam

[MattII]

25th Amendment was adopted 23rd Feb, 1967.

[Peelitebkearns]

"1. How is Johnson viewed in the years following his death?"

Very favourably I think. Even in OTL, isn't he viewed now a days as a okay to good president by most people who aren't staunched conservatives? That's the impression I had anyhow. If he dies sometime before 1967, I honestly believe he'd be even more highly regarded than JFK.

"2. What of now President Humphrey? How does President Humphrey deal with the Vietnam mess he's inherited? And how long would his honeymoon period as President last? Would President Humphrey be able to keep the nomination? Would he be able to keep the Presidency? "

LBJ's death gives president Humphrey a tremendous amount of sympathy at first. I always got the feeling that Humphrey wasn't as pro-Vietnam war as Johnson was, so I wonder if he might try to skail back on the commitment there?

If he does, I think he can wrapp up the nomination (and the election) pretty officiently. If he inherrets the presidency in 1966 and Vietnam goes about the same (or even worse) than OTL, then all bets are off, as any sympathy vote would have dicipated by the time the 1968 election rolls around.

"3. How would Johnson's death change the 1968 political calculus if at all?[/QUOTE]


Not sure-as I said earlier, there are a lot of factors to consider. IF RFK challenges Humphrey, can he get the nomination? I think his chances are about as good as Reagan's chances of doing that in OTL 76 were-the incumbent would have the obvious advantage, but the challenger's appeal would be hard to resist.

If Humphrey is popular though, I don't think RFK would bother with a challenge-from what I know of the HHH/RFK relationship, they were on good terms personally, which could also help.

I'd also question whether Nixon would run in 68 if it looks like Humphrey will win. In OTL he skipped 1964 because he didn't want to run against a popular incumbent, so I think that mentality applies here too. On the other hand though, Nixon might see 1968 as his last chance for the Whitehouse-thinking if he waits for 1972, he'd be overshadowed by Reagan.

All in all a lot of interesting possibilities could be bought about as a result of this Pod.

[Pangur]

Originally Posted by Peelitebkearns

If he does, I think he can wrapp up the nomination (and the election) pretty officiently. If he inherrets the presidency in 1966 and Vietnam goes about the same (or even worse) than OTL, then all bets are off, as any sympathy vote would have dicipated by the time the 1968 election rolls around.

Originally Posted by Peelitebkearns

If Humphrey is popular though, I don't think RFK would bother with a challenge-from what I know of the HHH/RFK relationship, they were on good terms personally, which could also help.

A question and a suggestion

Would HHH time as president post LBJ`s death count as a HHH presidency in own right?

How about RFK as the running mate with the plan that RFK runs as presidential candidate in 1976?

[Paul V McNutt]

By December 1965, LBJ has signed two major civil rights acts and all the major Great Society legislation. He is also escalated the Vietnam war. So I think he has the same OTL legacy. Humphrey would inherit the war and he would I think start peace negotiations.

[Pangur]

Assuming that they are successful (peace talks) would that have been enough that LBJ would have been seem as one the of the great presidents ever

[Fabilius]

Originally Posted by Paul V McNutt

By December 1965, LBJ has signed two major civil rights acts and all the major Great Society legislation. He is also escalated the Vietnam war. So I think he has the same OTL legacy. Humphrey would inherit the war and he would I think start peace negotiations.

I think when you die as president you don´t get blamed for your decisions but merely the consequences of your previous decisions few years ago.

JFK gets blanco on Vietnam.

I say LBJ too.

It´d be ironic but possible for HHH to end Vietnam and get blamed for it.

[freivolk]

Originally Posted by Fabilius

I think when you die as president you don´t get blamed for your decisions but merely the consequences of your previous decisions few years ago.

JFK gets blanco on Vietnam.

I say LBJ too.

It´d be ironic but possible for HHH to end Vietnam and get blamed for it.

But Harding and Coolidge still get the full blame for the Graet Depression.

[Glass Onion]

Originally Posted by freivolk

But Harding and Coolidge still get the full blame for the Graet Depression.

But in the popular imagination, at least for a considerable time, Herbert Hoover was blamed. There was a reason that from 1932 onward, the Democrats spent a lot of time bashing Hoover. Johnson might eventually be blamed for escalating Vietnam, but Hubert Humphrey is going to be in the White House when alt-Tet happens. Depending of course on the timing of Johnson's death, it's going to be Humphrey who is President when the war becomes increasingly unpopular. So, like Hoover, I could see the public initially blaming the war on President Humphrey if Humphrey isn't careful. That impression could last for a long time. The earlier Johnson dies, the more likely this is.

[Glass Onion]

Originally Posted by Peelitebkearns

"1. How is Johnson viewed in the years following his death?"

Very favourably I think. Even in OTL, isn't he viewed now a days as a okay to good president by most people who aren't staunched conservatives? That's the impression I had anyhow. If he dies sometime before 1967, I honestly believe he'd be even more highly regarded than JFK.

I think this is probably the case if he dies in December of 1965, but by December 1966 I think the situation had begun to deteriorate for Johnson. He might still be well regarded, but he won't be as well regarded.

Originally Posted by Peelitebkearns

"3. How would Johnson's death change the 1968 political calculus if at all?

Not sure-as I said earlier, there are a lot of factors to consider. IF RFK challenges Humphrey, can he get the nomination? I think his chances are about as good as Reagan's chances of doing that in OTL 76 were-the incumbent would have the obvious advantage, but the challenger's appeal would be hard to resist.

If Humphrey is popular though, I don't think RFK would bother with a challenge-from what I know of the HHH/RFK relationship, they were on good terms personally, which could also help.

I'd also question whether Nixon would run in 68 if it looks like Humphrey will win. In OTL he skipped 1964 because he didn't want to run against a popular incumbent, so I think that mentality applies here too. On the other hand though, Nixon might see 1968 as his last chance for the Whitehouse-thinking if he waits for 1972, he'd be overshadowed by Reagan.

All in all a lot of interesting possibilities could be bought about as a result of this Pod.

The problem with Nixon is that Nixon was not happy in his private sector life at the time. He wanted to reenter politics, and had been preparing to do so for some time. If Humphrey looks unbeatable, Nixon could try for a Senate run. He could attempt to primary Kuchel and seek his seat.