AHC: Waimar Germany Survives And Stabilizes

[hfegelein]

Originally Posted by Devolved

I'm sure the French would have loved to have an enlarged German state with more people and more resources.

What if one condition was that they had to join the Entente, therefore butterflying any possibility of declaring war on the British or the French?

[Eurofed]

Originally Posted by Simreeve

But then that would presumably strengthen extremism in Germany...

Err, sorry, I meant in 1931 France. IOTL France did interfere by financial pressure. If the GD somewhat spawns a worse economic crisis than OTL in 1931 France (or it is perceived so by the government), Paris would be too busy to interfere. Or there might be more socio-political unrest, such as a general strike, a political crisis, or even civil disorder.

[sendô]

Originally Posted by hfegelein

What if one condition was that they had to join the Entente, therefore butterflying any possibility of declaring war on the British or the French?

If Germany joins the Entente, then the Entente becomes obsolete - the whole point of it was to oppose the power of Germany.

More likely is the dissolution of the Entente and Britain allying with Germany, which would probably leave the French desperately whoring themselves out the the Italians and Soviets, although I accept that the chances of this given the lack of strength in Germany at this time.

[hfegelein]

Originally Posted by sendô

If Germany joins the Entente, then the Entente becomes obsolete - the whole point of it was to oppose the power of Germany.

More likely is the dissolution of the Entente and Britain allying with Germany, which would probably leave the French desperately whoring themselves out the the Italians and Soviets, although I accept that the chances of this given the lack of strength in Germany at this time.

I was thinking more along the lines of a sort of alliance between France, Britain, and Germany. The Entente transforms from an alliance against Germany into a sort of proto-EDC. The goal of this partnership would be to create an alliance that will allow for all three to co-exist peacefully, while also being strong enough to face Italian and Soviet threats.

[Faeelin]

Originally Posted by hfegelein

I was thinking more along the lines of a sort of alliance between France, Britain, and Germany. The Entente transforms from an alliance against Germany into a sort of proto-EDC. The goal of this partnership would be to create an alliance that will allow for all three to co-exist peacefully, while also being strong enough to face Italian and Soviet threats.

What Soviet threat?

[Simreeve]

Originally Posted by Faeelin

What Soviet threat?

What Italian threat?

[hfegelein]

Originally Posted by Faeelin

What Soviet threat?

Good point...up until 1939-ish, nobody really thought of the Soviet Union as a significant military power. In that case, the alliance is more for show, really; serving as a signal to the outside world that things between the three European powers of Germany, Britain, and France have changed for the better. Besides, it'd mean that the Entente would become a "Triple" Entente once again, and Germany would once again be part of a "Triple" Alliance. (Okay, that's trivial... but hey, I had my fun. )

[hfegelein]

Originally Posted by Simreeve

What Italian threat?

Che coza?!

How dare you insult the unmotorized might of the Italian Empire! Nobody gets away with that! Benny will now mobilize every donkey-drawn calvary division that he possibly can to prove you wrong!

[titulus regius]

Originally Posted by MSZ

Austria ..... was Catholic, so more likely to support the democratic powers.

As in Italy, Hungary and Croatia? Not to mention a certain Engelbert Dollfuss.

(I lost nearly one-third of a glass of beer when I read that particular post!)

[Detlef]

Originally Posted by sendô

The over riding issue was that the Germany people as a collective had no confidence in the Weimar government. They were used to strong autocratic leadership and saw their version of democracy as weak and unable to solve problems, hence their rush to promote extremist alternatives to their problems. Particularly when those solutions were coupled with promises to make Germany "great" again.

Uh huh.
"...used to strong autocratic leadership....".
That´s why participation in the pre-WW1 federal Reichstag elections was around 85% (with a pretty progressive election system). And a majority for democratic "constitutional monarchy" parties in 1912.
And the participation in the (autocratic) three-class franchise Prussian state elections was around 20+%.
Whatever you say....

[Faeelin]

Originally Posted by hfegelein

Good point...up until 1939-ish, nobody really thought of the Soviet Union as a significant military power. In that case, the alliance is more for show, really; serving as a signal to the outside world that things between the three European powers of Germany, Britain, and France have changed for the better. Besides, it'd mean that the Entente would become a "Triple" Entente once again, and Germany would once again be part of a "Triple" Alliance. (Okay, that's trivial... but hey, I had my fun. )

I don't think a democratic Germany would be buddy buddy with France, at least right away. Germans still wanted the Corridor back, and still wanted Austria. France would be opposed to it.

[Detlef]

Two possibilities:

• The Entente in the Stresemann years gets smart and decide to give democratic Weimar Germany half of what they gave Hitler freely in the 1930s. That would have strengthened the Weimar Republic.
• Hitler doesn´t become Chancellor in January 1933. If the Goebbels diaries are to be believed the Nazi party was practically bankrupt in late 1932. And they started to lose votes in the late 1932 Reichstag elections. Goebbels wrote that Hitler was alternately planning to commit suicide if the party had to declare bankruptcy or planning to flee Germany in such a case. Emigrating to South America if I remember correctly.
  In our TL the Nazi party was saved by Hitler becoming Chancellor in January 1933. Hindenburg personally didn´t like Hitler, the "Bohemian Corporal". Make him a bit more stronger in his old age or reduce the pressure on him somewhat...
  And by mid to late 1933 the Nazi party will be in real money trouble.

[iainbhx]

Originally Posted by Detlef

Uh huh.
"...used to strong autocratic leadership....".
That´s why participation in the pre-WW1 federal Reichstag elections was around 85% (with a pretty progressive election system). And a majority for democratic "constitutional monarchy" parties in 1912.
And the participation in the (autocratic) three-class franchise Prussian state elections was around 20+%.
Whatever you say....

Run off voting, I understand, for the pre-WWI Reichstag elections. Keeping that would help or discovering MMS 30 years early.

Reichstag franchise was all adult males over 24, which was pretty progressive for the time as well.

[freivolk]

What brought the end of the republic was, that Hindenburg started to act like a senil little primadonna after his reelection and decided to stab the people who voted for him into the back, If he didn´t do this, the Republik will have time till 1934 to recover.

[John Fredrick Parker]

Originally Posted by freivolk

What brought the end of the republic was, that Hindenburg started to act like a senil little primadonna after his reelection and decided to stab the people who voted for him into the back, If he didn´t do this, the Republik will have time till 1934 to recover.

Better yet, if Hindenburg doesn't run in 1932 at all, he won't be in a position to be this ruinous primadonna -- and the republic will have at least an entire seven year term to get itself together...

[Heilig]

Hitler slips and breaks his neck in 1928. The different right-wing parties remain divided. The political climate is heated until 1934/35.

Then it becomes clear to everybody that the economic situation is getting better. Extremist parties on both sides lose popular support and the German democracy somehow survives.

Alternatively: Riots and brawls between extremist get out of hand and anti-democratic forces/forces critical of democracy in the government (von Papen etc) declare marshall law and Germany is transformed into a system with more similarities to the old Wilhelmine system. Cencorship of the press is reintroduced, stuff like that. Some extremist parties are outlawed and members are arrested. The army cracks down any larger riots caused by this.
Eventually the situation calms down, marshall law is disbanded and Germany is now a somewhat authoritarian conservative democracy where extremist parties are not welcome.

In both cases völkisch and communist view remain among some parts of the populace, though.

Germany keeps subtly breaking the rules of Versailles and the Entente powers keep tolerating it.

Pan-Germanism is still around and without extremists in power, Austria joining Germany remains a possibility in the future(though I don't know if the Austria leadership is willing).

Eventually, some kind of treaty about the usage of Danzig has to be found. I don't see the possibility for war there, with rational persons in power. Hopefully.

Remilitarisation of the Rhineland will likely only happen by treaty.

Without Nazi Germany, Stalin keeps a low profile and doesn't try anything daring in Poland, because he knows that would only force Poland, Germany, France, etc in one camp against him.

Without a war in Europe, Japan can't be as opportunistic as in OTL and will not try to take the European colonies. And it will probably not dare to attack the US as well. Not too sure on this one though.
In the long run, Japan will not be able to hold on to China and it will have to give up large parts of it. It will probably keep some cities, I guess.
Korea be eventually japanized.

The US will stay more isolationist. The Civil Right Movement will be delayed until the 80s.

Decolonisation will be delayed as well.

Racism is not dicredited.

The atomic bomb will be discovered by one of the great powers in the 60s or 70s simply because they can.
Problem is, as long as there is no mutually assured destruction and to a lesser degree as long as Europe didn't suffer the devastation of terror bombing, nations will be more likely to go to war for whatever reasons.
A war might ventually break out, out of spite. Terror bombings (and if this war breaks out after the creation of the atom bomb, nuclear bombing, as well) will be used in such a war. It will be unpleasant. After that, people will be less likely to go to war, i'd say.

Israel will not come into existence. If Britain creates it anyway for whatever reasons it will not as many (European) Jews as it did IOTL after the Shoa. If some Pan-Arab consensciousness appears in the process of (delayed) decolonisation, it will probably be swallowed by one of the surrounding nations.

Opinions?

[Xgentis]

Originally Posted by Detlef

Two possibilities:

• The Entente in the Stresemann years gets smart and decide to give democratic Weimar Germany half of what they gave Hitler freely in the 1930s. That would have strengthened the Weimar Republic.
• Hitler doesn´t become Chancellor in January 1933. If the Goebbels diaries are to be believed the Nazi party was practically bankrupt in late 1932. And they started to lose votes in the late 1932 Reichstag elections. Goebbels wrote that Hitler was alternately planning to commit suicide if the party had to declare bankruptcy or planning to flee Germany in such a case. Emigrating to South America if I remember correctly.
  In our TL the Nazi party was saved by Hitler becoming Chancellor in January 1933. Hindenburg personally didn´t like Hitler, the "Bohemian Corporal". Make him a bit more stronger in his old age or reduce the pressure on him somewhat...
  And by mid to late 1933 the Nazi party will be in real money trouble.

Who is going to give territories to Germany?

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

check out
Holding Out for a Hero: Gustav Stresemann Survives ( 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ... Last Page) Faeelin

[freivolk]

Originally Posted by Heilig

Hitler slips and breaks his neck in 1928. The different right-wing parties remain divided. The political climate is heated until 1934/35.

Then it becomes clear to everybody that the economic situation is getting better. Extremist parties on both sides lose popular support and the German democracy somehow survives.

Alternatively: Riots and brawls between extremist get out of hand and anti-democratic forces/forces critical of democracy in the government (von Papen etc) declare marshall law and Germany is transformed into a system with more similarities to the old Wilhelmine system. Cencorship of the press is reintroduced, stuff like that. Some extremist parties are outlawed and members are arrested. The army cracks down any larger riots caused by this.
Eventually the situation calms down, marshall law is disbanded and Germany is now a somewhat authoritarian conservative democracy where extremist parties are not welcome.

In both cases völkisch and communist view remain among some parts of the populace, though.

Germany keeps subtly breaking the rules of Versailles and the Entente powers keep tolerating it.

Pan-Germanism is still around and without extremists in power, Austria joining Germany remains a possibility in the future(though I don't know if the Austria leadership is willing).

Eventually, some kind of treaty about the usage of Danzig has to be found. I don't see the possibility for war there, with rational persons in power. Hopefully.

Remilitarisation of the Rhineland will likely only happen by treaty.

Without Nazi Germany, Stalin keeps a low profile and doesn't try anything daring in Poland, because he knows that would only force Poland, Germany, France, etc in one camp against him.

Without a war in Europe, Japan can't be as opportunistic as in OTL and will not try to take the European colonies. And it will probably not dare to attack the US as well. Not too sure on this one though.
In the long run, Japan will not be able to hold on to China and it will have to give up large parts of it. It will probably keep some cities, I guess.
Korea be eventually japanized.

The US will stay more isolationist. The Civil Right Movement will be delayed until the 80s.

Decolonisation will be delayed as well.

Racism is not dicredited.

The atomic bomb will be discovered by one of the great powers in the 60s or 70s simply because they can.
Problem is, as long as there is no mutually assured destruction and to a lesser degree as long as Europe didn't suffer the devastation of terror bombing, nations will be more likely to go to war for whatever reasons.
A war might ventually break out, out of spite. Terror bombings (and if this war breaks out after the creation of the atom bomb, nuclear bombing, as well) will be used in such a war. It will be unpleasant. After that, people will be less likely to go to war, i'd say.

Israel will not come into existence. If Britain creates it anyway for whatever reasons it will not as many (European) Jews as it did IOTL after the Shoa. If some Pan-Arab consensciousness appears in the process of (delayed) decolonisation, it will probably be swallowed by one of the surrounding nations.

Opinions?

I think somewhere around 1934/35 will be an aggrement, that Germany can rearm. There will be a draft, tanks and an air force, but I think the Reichswher will be limited to 300 thousand men. Germany will join the Washington treaty and will be allowed to build a fleet comparable to France and Italy.

The Lorcano treaty will propably last till the fifties. At this time Austria will get united with Germany.

I wonder if there will be an japanese/chinese war in 1937. Without a germa threat the western Powers may be more condcerned about a japanese attempt to take over the chinese market. But propably there will be an soviet/chinese alliance against Japan in the 40th.

Actually the only power were I see the posibility and the will to start a fullscale nuclear program at this time, is Stalins USSR.

[Dr. Nodelescu]

Originally Posted by Dathi THorfinnsson

check out
Holding Out for a Hero: Gustav Stresemann Survives ( 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ... Last Page) Faeelin

Right. Faeelin's one of the best cats to catch mice here.