Peshawar Lancers Redux: North America

[Claudius]

King Gorilla, Nice map, what were your assumptions about wave height?

Here's something I found about the KT Event (way above the upper limit for our purposes)


The image below displays a striking semicircular alignment or Cenote Ring around southern hemisphere of the crater.
This was realized through information gathered due to oil research drilling in the area by PEMEX geophysicists Antonio
Carmargo-Zanoguera and Glen Penfield.
Further digs proved that trees were flattened up to a 1000 km. away and the impact was partially in a shallow sea so
there were tsunamis which radiated across the Gulf of Mexico. Compare this to the 1908 Tunguska event where trees
were only flattened out to 30 - 40 km. And sent its shock wave TWICE around the world!

Fig 6: A gravity map of The Chicxulub crater in Yucatan,

The same site, http://starmon.com/KT_craters.html gives good evidence that the KT Event was multple hits almost simultaneously. Major hit off India, with hits in Russia, England and off the coast of Maine.

[King Gorilla]

Originally Posted by Claudius

King Gorilla, Nice map, what were your assumptions about wave height?

For the Atlantic, apocalyptic, but small enough not to engulf the world in a 100 year nuclear winter. For the Gulf, I'd probably say they would be large enough to devastate the coast line, flood the lower Mississippi,b but still small enough to avoid killing everyone in the Caribbean. For the pacific, I'd say there wasn't, as Japan emerged unscathed enough to go Lebensraum on Asia.

[The Doctor]

So is the U.S going to make it through this and if so where?

[Torqumada]

I'm pretty sure that even a 200 foot tsunami is not going to be able to push it's way to the Appalachians throughout the entire East coast.

Torqumada

[Admiral Matt]

Originally Posted by Torqumada

I'm pretty sure that even a 200 foot tsunami is not going to be able to push it's way to the Appalachians throughout the entire East coast.

Torqumada

Ja. The line from the book was "reached the Appalachians in places," not "hit every scrap of land to the east of the Appalachians."

[Shadow Knight]

Originally Posted by Admiral Matt

Ja. The line from the book was "reached the Appalachians in places," not "hit every scrap of land to the east of the Appalachians."

The below maps from what I understand shows the extant of the Appalachian Mts. Furthest extant to a more modest claim, which brings into question of just how accurate Stirling is IMO...





I can see how a big impact might have caused waves up to the Catskills in NJ, but if that is it then a lot more population on the East coast would have survived IMHO.

[Claudius]

The Lituya Bay tsunami had a run-up height of over 1500 feet and evidence of Tsunamis that have hit the tip of Madagascar in ancient times had a run-up height of at least 900 feet.

A recent Discovery Channel special talked about "mega tsunamis". They showed an example which I assume had some mathematical validlity to it. In this example Mauna Loa had an eruption in which one whole side of the volcane collapased into the sea. The raw displacement was 360 cubic miles of rocked sliding down on an at least 45 degree slope directly into the pacific ocean. In their model the wave would reach Oahu in 30 minutes and have a run-up height of over 1,000 feet and a land speed of 50mph or more and charging inland approx 22 - 25 miles.

Assume that scenario is accurate and the Peshawar Comet generated a tsunami 1000 feet high. The energy of the wave will start to disapate about 100 miles off the east coast, where the continental shelf has a depth of about 600 feet and the wave starts to pile up. Ships at sea in the deep ocean will barely notice its passage

Looking at a relief map or the east coast of the US, such a wave would take out coastal New England, including Cape Cod, Massachusetts east of Springfield,all of Rhode Island, Conneticut up to Hartford, Long Island, New Jersey, the DelMarVa penninsula, Washington, Baltimore, and the Carolinas lowlands IMHO, he indirect effects on the climate will be the real killers

[Jackshadow]

Hopefully my first post isn't too horrid!

I was curious about the effects of a strike such as Stirling describes, and found this on Scientific American. http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...=double-whammy

It's a little older, but based on some fairly sophisticated modeling. Seems the only warning the east coast would have would be the seismic jolt when the strike occurs, and then the arrival of the waves. Not much time to get organized in any fashion. Assuming events to that point stayed in the original timeline, the railroads would still be recovering from the Great Railroad Strike of 1877, complicating rail evacuations. With the destruction of the Federal government in DC, and a number of east coast state capitals, order would have broken down rapidly. Seems to me the only working state governments would have been across the Appalachians, and those states were certainly far from industrialized (KY, TN, etc.) or able to support the streams of refugees that did get out from the coast. Inland Texas might have been the only real government left from the central plains eastward, if Stirling's Gulf and Great Lakes strikes happened. It's not inconceivable that the Mississippi could back up, causing catastrophic flooding all the way to St. Louis.....

[Claudius]

Welcome, Jackhadow!

[King Gorilla]

Here is something I've been working on

California (2025)
Population: 15.3 million (45% urban 55% rural)
Principal Cities (San Francisco 1.1 Million, San Diego 300,000, Fresno 175,000, Portland 160,000 Ulysses 115,000)
Principal Exports: Grain, Textiles, Gold, Silver, Wine, Timber products, Petrochemicals, Small Arms, Machine tools, Chemicals, Fertilizer

Pre-fall California was one of America’s fastest growing states. Its rich soil and long growing season attracted frontiersmen from all around the country. Its relative isolation and temperate climate had much to do with its survival following the disasters of the Fall. Although the America’s government was decapitated following the meteor strike, quick thinking on the part of General Ulysses S Grant, returning from a trip of Nippon, and governor William Irwin, order was quickly restored both in California and along the west coast. The Eastern united states found itself under marshal law, with General Sherman acting as the head of its emergency government. Both he and grant quickly understood the importance of evacuating as many civilians as possible from the rapidly cooling Midwest to California. As well as to provide relief to America’s recently displaced citizens. In the coming months hundreds of thousands of Americans, ranging from Wisconsin wheat farmers to Pittsburgh steel workers, to Ohio industrialists were relocated to California via the transcontinental railroad. These evacuations were viewed with the utmost importance, and were done under great hardship and danger. However when the snow’s of the long winter blocked the mountain passes; so too did it sever California’s ties to the eastern united states.

California’s population was swelled enormously by the refugees. There was some concern over providing for them, but with rationing, the short term doubling of the Pacific fishing fleet, and the speedy cultivation of wilderness, California was able to avoid the worst of the Famine years. The rest of the American West wasn’t so lucky, with civilization being preserved only along the temperate region of the Pacific Coast. Both the Rocky Mountains, and Pacific Northwest had become no mans lands, uninhabited except for scattered and isolated settlements. Expeditions were launched up and down the pacific coast, restoring contact with these communities and bringing them back into the fledgling Californian nation. By 1900 California stretched the full length of the pacific coast, incorporating the survivors of both Vancouver and Columbia into California via democratic referendum. Though this came with some protests from the Raj, distance, and continued unrest in India did much to dissuade any further actions. With the Pacific secured, California began expanding eastwards, reopening the gold and silver mines abandoned by the Fall, and setting up a vibrant series of frontier cities throughout the south east. Nevada (1920), Arizona (1930) and Idaho (1960) were all reincorporated in the Californian union via resettlement. This process of eastern homesteading has continued to this very day, with the borders of California now touching those of Texas and Deseret. California has also expanded into the former territories of Mexico, joining Texas in defeating the northern caudillos and annexing their territories, leading towards the founding of the city of Ulysses at the mouth of the gulf of California.


Economy
California’s economy has long centered around agriculture. Its warm climate and long growing seasons contributed towards its speedy recover from the cataclysm of the Fall. California is a major exporter of wheat, canned fruits and vegetables, beef, poultry and seafood. The Californian government has long supported its agricultural industry through the creation of massive irrigation projects. These have allowed formerly arid regions to blossom and enjoy astounding productivity. California also enjoys the worlds second largest wine making industry. Californian Vintages are particularly popular throughout the Americas and Raj although they enjoy fierce competition from Australian vintners. Timber and wood products, largely stemming from the pacific northwest are another major export, with much of the production being shipped to Nippon.

Industrially, California has in recent decades began to shift away from extraction industries. Silver and gold mining were long the staples of Californian industry. They contributed to the strong Californian dollar, and helped insure a healthy balance of trade. The recent discoveries of Oil in Southern California have provided yet another export product. Though California has traditionally possessed a sizable textiles industry centered in San Francisco and supported by small machine shops, it has generally lacked heavy industry. The development of heavy industry has been hampered by a scarcity of domestic coal reserves, leading to a situation where California has been forced to import most of its steel from mills in Australia. California’s coal shortage has been remedied by trade with Desert, which has quickly become California’s primary source for coal. This has lead to a rapid development of a fledgling steel and machine tools industry, the latter’s development being driven on largely by the demands of the oil industry. Perhaps the largest recent development with Californian industry is the wide spread process of electrification, brought on by the construction of a pair of hydro electric dams. Already factories are shifting away from steam power to electric, and California's hydroelectric potential remains enormous.

[Shadow Knight]

Your little background on California seems to be missing the fact that the southern route to California by rail was in existence by then so unless heavy snows are cutting off the route through the New Mexico territory you're going to need to go back to the drawing board.

[King Gorilla]

Originally Posted by Shadow Knight

Your little background on California seems to be missing the fact that the southern route to California by rail was in existence by then so unless heavy snows are cutting off the route through the New Mexico territory you're going to need to go back to the drawing board.

How about something like this

As the weather worsens, it becomes increasingly difficult to both keep the mountain passes open, and supply the citizens of Colorado with basic necessities. Though the threat of physical force was used with regularity, in order to keep the rail lines open, increasingly those forces were needed elsewhere. Ultimately federal forces had to withdraw, and their departure largely ended the flow of refugees to California. The provisional government of Colorado evacuated its citizens for a while longer, using the more southerly passes of the transcontinental railroad, but the lack food stuffs and the seemingly endless winter ultimately lead towards its inevitable collapse into anarchy.

Of course I could always go with the tried and true "fearing thousands of new mouths to feed, California forces descretely severe the transcontintal rail lines, condemning their former compartriots to the mercies of fate" I'm just reluctant to do so as I'm clearly trying to make California out to be the good guys.

[Shadow Knight]

Originally Posted by King Gorilla

How about something like this

As the weather worsens, it becomes increasingly difficult to both keep the mountain passes open, and supply the citizens of Colorado with basic necessities. Though the threat of physical force was used with regularity, in order to keep the rail lines open, increasingly those forces were needed elsewhere. Ultimately federal forces had to withdraw, and their departure largely ended the flow of refugees to California. The provisional government of Colorado evacuated its citizens for a while longer, using the more southerly passes of the transcontinental railroad, but the lack food stuffs and the seemingly endless winter ultimately lead towards its inevitable collapse into anarchy.

Of course I could always go with the tried and true "fearing thousands of new mouths to feed, California forces descretely severe the transcontintal rail lines, condemning their former compartriots to the mercies of fate" I'm just reluctant to do so as I'm clearly trying to make California out to be the good guys.

To be honest I like what you've got, but until some decision is made on how big the biggest rock was, where it hit in the Atlantic, if there were any smaller strikes (and if so where/how big), and how fast/long did the climate go foul?

It is just premature IMO to try to project that far into time without knowing these basics facts.

[Kevin Renner]

The pieces of the comet that hit can in no way be anywhere near the total size of the Chicxulub impactor. But even smaller impacts will cause massive destruction. Lets say the comet befor it broke up is on average 2M/3.28,km in diameter. That's 4.2 cubic miles/18.45 cubic km of rock and ice smacking into the Earth at something around 31mps/51kmps. Depending on the size of the fragments, and how far from the Earth the comet broke up (maybe a close aproach to Venus below its Roche limit?) number will hit and a number will miss. If the comet had broken up inside of Earth's Roche limit on an earlier pass then either the object would be spread over a good portion of its orbit, say 5 degrees and its return would be known with some certainity. At a guess the largest would be around .5M/.8km in diameter. Lets say that is the one that hits the Atlantic. Smaller impactors down to around Tunguska or Meteor Crater hit either on land in Eurasia and North America or in the Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico.

http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteffects/ was used to calculate the effects

http://www.lpl.arizona.edu/impacteff...&wdepthUnits=2

However the calcualtor does not give wave heights

[Enigmajones]

I felt that the US could have reorganized west of the Rockies with its Capital in SF. I think they could have eventually have annexed the whole West Coast and then expanded East.

[vultan]

Originally Posted by Enigmajones

I felt that the US could have reorganized west of the Rockies with its Capital in SF. I think they could have eventually have annexed the whole West Coast and then expanded East.

You came in a little too late for this boy.

[Enigmajones]

Originally Posted by vultan

You came in a little too late for this boy.

Sorry I rarely visit the site. No need to roll eyes How do you like it?

[vultan]

Originally Posted by Enigmajones

Sorry I rarely visit the site. No need to roll eyes How do you like it?

Fine, I guess.

[Enigmajones]

Originally Posted by vultan

Fine, I guess.

[Strategos' Risk]

Okay how about we take all of the discussion into consideration, then the more brave/assertive ones among us will write up their scenarios, and then we will vote on/cobble them together?

Good job King Gorilla.

Good link and good point about the railroad strike Jackshadow.