Mussolini remains neutral

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What if Mussolini had remained steadfastly neutral during World War II, except possibly for some units of Fascist volunteers fighting against the Soviet Union, much like Franco did? Assuming that most of the rest of the war happens as in OTL, I think that some possible consequences could be:

- No North African campaign or front, resulting in much less Allied commitment to the Mediterranean. There would be an Anglo-American invasion of German-occupied France in 1943, possibly even in 1942.

- WWII ends with the line between Soviet and western Allied forces further to the east, but there is still some kind of Cold War.

- If a NATO-type organization is formed, Mussolini's Italy probably won't be part of it because the liberal democracies don't want to openly ally with a fascist nation. On the other hand, there could still be considerable cooperation between Fascist Italy and NATO or its equivalent based on a common anti-communist motive - again, similar to the case of Franco's Spain.

- There could be growing unrest in Italy's African colonies during the 1950s and 60s. Would Italy let some colonies go, or fight to keep all of them?

- Suppose Mussolini dies in 1965 - what happens next in Italy?
 
Paul, I think there's a possibility that you actually may see the war go worse for the allies. Okay, just bear with me a moment.

Lacking the experience gained in the deserts of North Africa, the Anglo-Americans underestimate their enemy and launch their invasion of France with a undermanned force in May of 1943. Not only does the lack of contact cause the allies to underestimate the Germans, but now you have German commanders and troops who have spent the last four years fighting a war. Facing these solid veterans are the green troups of the American army, who haven't fought a conventional land battle (which excludes the island-hopping in the Pacific) in almost thirty years. The top ranking commanders were lieutenants and captains in WWI. We will see untested troops, in untested vehicles, with untested commanders facing off against veteran troops. Okay, so back to the actual invasion.

First of all, our armored divisions will be severely hampered: 1) you most likely won't see George Patton commanding anything [let's say at most, a division] as he did not gain fame for defeating Rommel in the desert. 2) you'll probably see either Marshall or a British commander leading an earlier invasion [I not only shivver, but I vomit at the though of Montgomery leading American troops into battle; luckily he won't have achieved fame in the desert and probably won't have the oppurtunity to f*ck up the invasion; sorry for those Montgomery-philes out there]. 3) you'll see battle-hardened ex-Soviet front troops on break guarding the beaches. 4) you could see someone as good as Manstein, Guderian, or Rommel actually commanding his troops [as Hitler may be distracted with the eastern front].

All in all, I think an invasion of Europe in 1943 with no American combat experience will spell disaster.
 

Grey Wolf

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monty

Walter_Kaufmann said:
2) you'll probably see either Marshall or a British commander leading an earlier invasion [I not only shivver, but I vomit at the though of Montgomery leading American troops into battle; luckily he won't have achieved fame in the desert and probably won't have the oppurtunity to f*ck up the invasion; sorry for those Montgomery-philes out there].
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Given that all his predecessors LOST to Rommel, and he WON, what basis is your distinct aversion to Montgomery built upon ?

Grey Wolf
 
15 to 1? That can't be correct - 2 to 1, maybe 2.5 to 1 at the most. In any case, you could easily argue that Mongomery won a decisive victory at El Alamein precisely because he was patient enough to wait until he had unquestioned superiority before attacking. As a general rule, it's a good idea to wait for 2 to 1 superiority before attacking if that's possible.
 
I did exagerate, at El Alamein Rommel had 500 tanks. Out of those 500, approxiately 150 were in working order (fuel problems). Rommel had 100,000 men. Most of them tankers without tanks and, hence, virtually useless. Montgomery had 1,200 tanks, all in working order. He had 250,000 men, all of whom either inside their tanks, manning artillery (of which the Germans had barely any), or actual infantrymen. I do not call winning a battle when you outnumber your enemy 8:1 in tanks and 3:1 in manpower a "brilliant" victory. No, that is what is expected out of any General. Even with this number, Montgomery allowed Rommel to escape and fight his way all the way back across Africa, constantly pounding Montgomery's forces. Nor was his decision to wait "brilliant." Montgomery outnumbered him the whole way through. He could have attacked any time. He waited until he actually had to defend something before he started to fight.

Wait, I also forgot to mention that Rommel, who was on sick leave in Austria on October 23 when the battle started, did not arrive in Africa until October 25, replacing the former German commander who had died of a heart attack.

Look, I don't want to argue about this. You all have your opinions and I have mine and it's no use arguing about them.
 
Italy being neutral leads to some broader strategic questions. Without Mussolini's screwing up in the Balkans, Germany won't likely invade there and will have the opportunity to invade Russia earlier... would they do it, or did they simply need until June 22 to get ready for it? German aircraft wouldn't be sucked into the Mediterranean... no assault on Crete, no air attacks on Malta. Plus, no Afrika Korps (granted, it wasn't a huge force, but it could have been deployed in Russia) starving in North Africa. I suppose they would have needed some air units in southern France to guard against British forces in the Med, but not much more than that...
Granted, the US/UK invading in '43 would have been pretty bad for us... would they do it though? Would they go for an all out invasion without trying some Dieppe size raids first? It's hard to imagine the western allies gambling everything on a single massive invasion with untried troops. Might the US not try to get some experience on some other front first? After all, they did that deliberately in N. Africa. Where else might they try? Norway perhaps?
 
I don't think a see invasion of Norway would work. A) were there enough Germans there to make the experience worth it? B) I don't think you can invade through the fjords very well. Although, they could, at least, practice air drops, I guess. Maybe they'll make a play for Denmark. There's probably too many Germans crawling about there, though.
 
If there weren't any germans in N. Africa, Italy, the Balkans, etc, there just might be a lot of them in Norway.. after all, it's kind of an obvious target, so near to England and all. Looking at a map of Norway, it seems that the southern part of it has long stretches of coastline without fjords... the allies could invade there. After all, the combined US/UK navies could seal off about any part of the coast they wanted to....
 
"We got them in this war. Now is your turn again." Rundsted during post war interrogations, refering to Italy.

Also UKs planners said before the war that if Italy joins Germany Allies would profit more than if they stay neutral.
 
Well, there is also the small matter of Operation Barbarossa. Without the sideshow of the blunders in Yugoslavia, Greece and Crete as well as the general North Africa campaign, could Nazi Germany have reached Moscow before winter and captured it? Another question would be - what would Britain do next without the Italians in the war? This POD has a lot potential people!!
 
I also agree that Italy's neutrality in WW2 might also be to Germany's benefit for the following reasons - most mentioned before:

(1) No north african campaign and either no Balkan campaign or a reduced one aimed only at restoring a friendly government in Yugoslavia.

(2) A lot more men and material available for Barbarossa - invasion schedule would be more favorable and USSR just migt be knocked out of war in 1941-42...in which case it might be all over except for the inevitable change in British govt and armistice.

(3) Although Fascist Italy is neutral, Britain would still be suspicious of its aims and uncomfortable completely abandoning the med to the Italian navy. Il Duce would still be valuable as a sort of potential "ally in being"

(4) In general war could be pursued completely according to German aims and timetables.

Now if Mussolini pulled a complete switcheroo like the Italians did in WW1 and say, joined the allies in 1942-43, Germany is toast - not so much because of Italian Arms, but because the western allies would start their European campaign with troops stationed along Germany's southern border. Mussolini also becomes one of the major architects of the postwar map of europe and sits on the UN security council - possibly instead of France (!), those collaborationist dogs! ;)
 
ljofa said:
Well, there is also the small matter of Operation Barbarossa. Without the sideshow of the blunders in Yugoslavia, Greece and Crete as well as the general North Africa campaign, could Nazi Germany have reached Moscow before winter and captured it? Another question would be - what would Britain do next without the Italians in the war? This POD has a lot potential people!!

IMO no. Barbarossa was postponed for various reasons that had nothing to do with Balkans. AGS get couple of more divisions, but not that much. Altough with no Crete paras could be used in SU. OTOH Balkans remain unocupied, which means both sides eye it. With no N African campaign Brits have troops in egypt which aren't doing much. It would be tempting not to do something with them. Use them to fight Vichy forces in Syria, which means there is large force siting on Turkish southern border, move them to SE Asia. Even if they sit in Egypt the potential threat of them being used for invasion of Balkans could mean Germans have to keep reserves in region to counter this.
 
Sea Lion and Barbarossa

One of the considerations behind Sea Lion was that the Italians were to tie down a large chunk of the RN in the Med. With Italy neutral Hitler's limited enthusiasm for Sea Lion would be even lower and there is some possibility that he might not approve it at all or (more likely) that he would pull the plug on it earlier--say just before the shift to daylight raids on London. The Battle of Britian would become a more cautious long term air offensive against Britain.

As far as Barbarossa Col. Seaton has argued quite persuasively that some of the delay was due to the Balkans campaign and that the other reasons for the delay would've still allowed it beginning at least two weeks earlier than it did.

Even though neutral I see Mussoline committing two divisions of "volunteers" to Barbarossa to outdo Franco's one division.
 
I've reflected somewhat on this possibility in the years.
Obviously, it would be a blessing for Italy, and Mussolini's name would be much less hated today.
However, Italy would remain for at least two yeras a credible menace in the Mediterranean and Africa

So, let's try a possible timeline.

6-10-40 Mussolini stays quiet, though the British and the French expect war at any moment (indeed the French HOPE to be attacked, knowing how weak Italy really is, mainly to have an excuse to surrender)
6-14-40 Paris falls to the Nazis. Mussolini explodes with envy, but has the guts to swallow this and much more. Italian public opinion asks for war, but he decides it's better to wait after receiving clear signs that Britain will resist, and will declare war if France is however attacked
6-27-40 After some debate, the French surrender and sign an armistice at Compiègne
6-28-40 For Air Marshall Italo Balbo, a day like any other in its golden exile as Governor of Lybia
6-30-40 German occupation of the Channel Islands. Italy mediates more acceptable conditions for France (German occupation reduced to Paris and the Channel and Atlantic coasts, vast demilitarized strip up to OTL occupied France border) in exchange for the return of Nizza and a co-dominium on Corsica
July 1940 Mers-el-Kebir, Dakar. British forces help De Gaulle in the conquest of Vichy Equatorial Africa
August 1940 The Battle of England goes on stage. The British are slightly better off in terms of fighters.
9-30-40 An embittered Hitler renounces the invasion of England and orders night terror bombing and U-boot blockade of Britain
October Growing tensions between Greece and Italy force the British to increase the Egyptian garrison and overtly offer protection to Greece in case of attack
10-18/19-40 Hitler fails to convince Franco and Pétain to enter the war aginst Britain
11-15-40 After Italian pressure and German menaces Metaxas gives Italy a 99-year lend of the naval base at Suda (Creta)
April 1941 Following unbearable losses, the Germans are forced to renounce the terror bombing campaign on Britain (Goering falls into disgrace) and focus more and more on the submarine campaign
4-6-41 Furious at the Yugoslav "betrayal", Hitler invades that country. Greece mobilizes but waits
4-7-41 Fearing a German invasion, the Greek governemnt refuses British troops
4-14-41 Yugoslavia is crushed and carved up between Germany, Croatia... and Italy, despite having not participated in the invasion. Italy gets Dalmatia south of Zara, Kosovo (attached to Albania) and an "indipendent" Montenegro
4-18-41 Hitler asks Greece to cede aeronaval bases on the Aegean coast. BEFORE the Greeks can ask time to decide, German troops invade northern Greece
4-19-41 British troops hurry to Greece
4-21-41 Saloniki is taken by the Germans after terrible dive bombings
4-22/25-41 British and Greek forces are defeated in the Aliakmon line battle. Repeated incidents between British and Italian ships, but no one declares war
5-3-41 Commonwealt forces are reduced by German air superiority at the Thermopylae and retire in the Peloponnesos
5-8-41 The Germans rise the Swastika flag on Athen's Akropolis
May Guerrilla war begins in Montenegro. Both Communist and Chetnik forces massacre Italian garrisons, which answer in kind towards civilians. British forces crush Iraqi pro-Nazi insurrection
5-18-41 The British evacuation of continental Greece is a half disaster. At least 30,000 men are taken as PoWs
5-20-41 Rudolf Hess parachutes in Scotland and is captured by the British
5-25-41 Being already late with Barbarossa, Hitler decides not to take Creta (for now)
June British buildup at Crete, Cyprus, in Egypt and the Middle East. Turkey, wooed by both Germany and Britain, remains absolutely neutral
6-22-41 Unternehmen Barbarossa begins
6-26-41 Romania, Hungary and Slovakia declare war on USSR. Mussolini organizes a voluntary corps to Russia (about 30,000 men)
6-27-41 Finland declares war on USSR
6-30-41 The Nazis take Minsk
7-1/9-41 Nazis fail to take Murmansk
7-6-41 Italian Fascist volunteers arrive in Ukraine
7-9-41 Nazis take Pskov and Zhitomir
7-10-41 Soviets stop the Germnas at Luga and Zhitomir
7-10-41 Nazis take Vitebsk
7-15-41 The Nazis take Smolensk
7-17/24-41 Soviets stop the Germans around Smolensk
August 1941 Soviet and British forces jointly (and peacefully) occupy Iran
8-9-41 Mussolini visits Italian troops at Uman, Ukraine. Stalin swallows and doesn't declare war on Italy
8-16-41 Soviets stop Finns and Germans at Alakurtti, reconquer Jelnja but lose Roslavl
8-30-41 Nazis conquer Tallinn
9-5-41 The siege of Leningrad begins
9-17-41 The Nazis take Kiev. Rommel closes the Kiev pocket (665,000 PoWs)
10-2-41 Operation Typhoon against Moscow
10-3-41 Nazis conquer Orel
10-5-41 The Nazis take Kharkov
10-13-41 Nazis take Vjazma and Brjansk
10-24-41 Finns take Petrozavodsk and stop on the Svir river
11-30-41 Guderian and Rommel manage to take Tula. First German defeat at Rostov: Rommel has to withdraw
12-5-41 German forces conquer the western outskirts of Moscow and bombard the Kremlin with artillery
12-6-41 Great Soviet counteroffensive around Moscow. The German spearhead is broken
12-7-41 Japan attacks the USA at Pearl Harbor
12-11-41 Hitler declares war to the USA
12-21-41 Germans at Tula surrender (10,000 PoWs)
12-23-41 Japs conquer Wake Island
12-25-41 Japanese conquest of Hong Kong; Italian volunteers resist the Christmas Soviet counteroffensive around Stalino
1-2-42 The Japs take Manila
1-12/15-42 British forces stop the Japanese advance in Malaya at the battle of Kuala Lumpur
1-20-42 At Wannsee Conference Nazis begin the planned extermination of European Jews
1-25-42 Japs take Rabaul
2-16-42 Japanese victory on the Royal Navy at the Battle of Bangka near Singapore. Japanese forces land on Sumatra
February-March British buildup in Northern Sumatra and Singapore/Southern Malaya to maintain control of the Straits
2-28-42 Japanese victory at the naval battle of the Java Sea
March 1942 RAF begins firebombing campaign on Germany. Italian troops commit brutal war crimes against civilians in Yugoslavia
3-6-42 Japs take Batavia/Jakarta
3-8-42 Japanese landing at Lae (New Guinea)
3-9-42 The Dutch East Indies surrender to the Japanese
3-28/30-42 The German airdrop on Crete resolves in the senseless slaughter of the best German paratroopers and is called off
4-9-42 US besieged forces surrender to the Japanese at Bataan
5-6-42 Japanese conquest of Corregidor complete Jap conquest of the Philippines
5-8-42 Japanese forces take Rangoon. Indecisive US-Japanese aeronaval battle at the Coral Sea (tactical Jap victory, strategical US success)
5-15-42 Yamamoto renounces the Midway project, at least for now
5-24-42 The Italian volunteer corps in Russia is reconstituted and reinforced
5-28/31-41 British/Indian/Chinese nationalist forces stop the Japs at the battle of Mandalay (central Burma). Resounding German victory on the Soviets at Kharkov (last great German pocket of the war)
6-13-42 Nazis take Voronezh
6-20-42 Japs conquer Kuala Lumpur but take horrendous casualties
7-1-42 Nazis take Sebastopol after an epic siege. US troops land in Sumatra and Singapore to help the British and Commonwealth forces
7-19-42 Rommel takes Rostov
8-7-42 US Marines land on Guadalcanal
8-10-42 Nazis destroy Stalingrad with air bombng and enter its northern outskirts reaching the Volga
August 1942 Failed Soviet counteroffensive on the Moscow front
8-16-42 Great aeronaval battle at Santa Cruz: narrow US victory against the
8-24-42 Japanese naval victory at Santa Isabel (Solomon Islands). Italian volunteers in Russia resist a Soviet counterattack across the Don river
8-25-42 Tragic Anglo-Canadian commando landing failure at Dieppe. Rommel's forces stopped at Tuapse
9-8-42 New great naval battle near Choisel: both US and Japan lose 2 air carriers. Yamamoto renounces further confrontations down there
9-12-42 Nazis crush last Soviet resistance at Stalingrad (but can't advance a millimeter beyond the Volga's bank), take Groznij (oilfilelds destroyed by Soviets) and arrive to the western shore of the Caspian Sea
9-16-42 Stalin accepts US troops in the Caucasus
10-3/8-42 Nazi failure aginst the Soviets in the Volga steppe battle
10-16-42 Soviet forces cross the Volga and establish a bridgehed in Stalingrad. Soviet paradrops around the city, annihilated
11-6-42 First US armored division enters combat in the Tuapse area, USSR
11-16-42 Soviets begin Operation Uranus around Stalingrad
11-25-42 Soviets close a German pocket in Stalingrad (lesser than OTL) and begin Operation Mars around Rzhev
11-26/27-42 Japanese forces take Midway
12-13-42 Thorough Japanese defeat at the aeronaval battle of Midway (3 air carriers lost to 0). Disastrous failure of Zhukov's Operation Mars on the central Russian front
12-15-42 Patton's offensive towards the Kuban and Soviet "Operation Saturn" prevents Manstein and Rommel from liberating the Stalingrad pocket
12-27-42 US forces recapture Palembang (Southern Sumatra)
12-31-42 Japanese forces successfully evacuate Guadalcanal
January 1943 US-Commonwealt forces complete the reconquest of southern Sumatra
1-5-43 Surrender of the Germans at Stalingrad (50,000 PoWs). Crumbling of the German front in the Caucasus
1-7-43 Tolbukhin and Patton encircle Von Kleist and Rommel in the immense Krasnodar pocket
1-11-43 Soviets open a way out from the siege of Leningrad
1-15/30-43 Tragic fallback of the Italian Fascist Volunteer Corps on the Don river, isolated and pocketed, towards Belgorod: some 30,000 casualties
1-18/20-43 Us Marines reconquer Midway: hundreds of fatalities
1-21/27-43 Manstein opens a way out from the Krasnodar pocket in Operation Winter Storm, but few units can free themselves
2-14-43 Final surrender of German Army Group A with Rommel and Von Kleist near Krasnodar (225,000 PoWs) to Patton's forces
2-16-43 Patton refuses to hand back the PoWs to the Soviets and Roosevelt, to avoid bickering with the Soviets, replaces him with Bradley
2-18-43 Soviets retake Kharkov to the SS Panzerkorps
March US-Australian offensive in the Solomon Islands and New Guinea; Us-British-Indian offensive in the Malaya
3-10-43 Germans abandon Vjazma half-pocket to reduce line length
3-3/17-43 Manstein soundly defeats Soviet in the Donec battle and reconquers Kharkov
3-27-43 Australian forces retake Buna (New Guinea)
4-14-43 Bradley's 5th Army crushes last German resistance in the Novorossik-Kerch strait area (50,000 PoWs)
May Allied victory in the Battle of the Atlantic against Doenitz's U-Boote
5-4-43 The last battered Japs withdraw from North Malaya towards Pathani
5-16-43 US paratroopers conquer Lae (New Guinea)
5-18/20-43 US-British forces land in Morocco and Algeria, forcing the quick surrender/cooperation of local Vichy French forces
5-21/24-43 German forces occupy all of France with only scattered resistance by Vichy collaborationist forces
5-28-43 Franco's Spain declares the strictest policy of armed neutrality; so does Italy provoking the German wrath
6-6-43 Australian and US forces land on Timor. US and British-Indian forces close on Kra Isthmus
6-12-43 The French Fleet sinks itself in the port of Toulon to prevent its being seized by the Germans
7-5-43 Germans begin "Operation Citadel" against Kursk, the greatest battle of WWII
7-7-43 The Japanese stage a coup in Thailand and install a puppet government to provide troops and rela cooperation to the war effort
7-12-43 US landings in southern New Britain
7-14-43 Eradication of the last surviving Japanese on Timor (5,000 allied fatalities)
7-15-43 Indecisive Prokhorovka armor clash, the German penetration is stopped
7-18-43 Soviet counterattack in the Orel salient
7-20-43 British-Indian landings at Victoria Point and the Mergui Archipelago (Tenasserim, southeastern Burma). "Operation Citadel" called off from unbearable losses
7-25/30-43 Hamburg Allied firebombing
8-1-43 US landing on Bougainville
8-5-43 Soviets retake Orel
8-6-43 Japanese naval defeat at Kolombangara (Solomon Islands). Japanese fleet abandons Rabaul for Truk
8-8-43 General allied offensive in Southern and Central Russian front (5th US army under Bradley in the Taganrog area)
8-15-43 US-British landing at Kuching (western Borneo)
8-16-43 Soviets retake Kharkov
8-19-43 US forces capture Taganrog
8-25-43 RAF annihilates Peenemunde delaying German rocket projects
9-11-43 Soviets retake Smolensk
9-11/14-43 US marines reconquer Wake Island
9-14-43 US landing at Brunei (west Borneo)
9-18-43 Soviet forces reach the Dnepr river north and south of Kiev
9-24-43 Soviet paradrop beyond the Dnepr ends in a failure
9-27-43 US landing at Sorong in the Vogelkop peninsula (northwestern New Guinea)
9-30-43 German garrison in the Crimea is isolated by Bradley. US aeronaval victory on the Japanese at the Equator Battle (or Battle of Maluku Sea)
October Successful German defense on the Pantherstellung (Dnepr-Beresina-Peipus-Narva line). Fanatic Japanese resistance stops US/Commonwealth forces in Borneo at Kota Kinabalu
10-30-43 US landing at Morotai (North Maluku Islands)
11-7-43 Soviets retake Kiev and Pskov
11-18/30-43 Bloody and indecisive Battle of Kiev; the Nazis cannot retake the city but maul the Soviets
11-30-43 MASSIVE ALLIED PARADROP AND LANDING AT CALAIS
12-3-43 Linkup of the main allied bridgeheads at Dunkerque (Canadian-British) and Calais (USA-Free French). US and Australian forces conquer Mando (northern Celebes)
12-14-43 US forces capture Boulogne-sur-Mer
12-15-43 Australian troops enter Madang (New Guinea). At Teheran Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill confirm unconditional surrender policy
12-15/18-43 Crushing US aeronaval victory in the Battle of Marcus (fought during a typhoon!)
12-23-43 US Marines complete the extermination of Japanese garrison at Marcus/Minamitori
12-30-43 Bradley takes Nikolajev after a protracted and bloody struggle
1-7-44 US landing near Banjarmasin (south Borneo)
1-10-44 Soviets definitively break the siege of Leningrad and unleash a winter offensive
1-11/14-44 US marines conquer Eniwetok; Soviets crush Nikopol pocket (30,000 PoWs)
1-14-44 Australian forces land on Flores Island (Indonesia)
1-18-44 Canadians take Ostende (Belgium)
1-23-44 US forces conquer St.-Omer
1-27-44 Soviets retake Polock and Krivoj Rog
1-30-44 Soviets retake Vitebsk
2-1/4-44 US marines conquer Kwajalein
2-3-44 Soviets reconquer Narva and capture 50,000 German PoWs
2-7-44 Soviets penetrate in Latvia and take Daugavpils
2-10/20-44 Soviets destroy most of German Heeresgruppe Zentrum at the Berezina after taking Borisov (200,000 PoWs)
2-14-44 Soviets retake Zhitomir
2-14/18-44 Crushing aeronaval US attack on Truk; painful US-Free French reconquest of Lille
2-15-44 Soviets enter Estonia from south and take Tartu. British forces land at Vinh Loi, in Southern Vietnam
2-17/25-44 German 17th Army narrowly escapes total annihilation in the Kazatin pocket (Ukraine)
2-18-44 Soviets retake Minsk
2-23-44 Patton crushes German lines in "Operation Billings" at St.-Pol-sur-Ternoise (Artois)
2-24-44 Soviets conquer Parnu on the Baltic coast and cut the Tallinn garrison out of German Heeresgruppe Nord
2-26-44 Soviets retake Vinnitsa (Ukraine)
2-27-44 Colonel Helmuth Stieff kills Hitler in a suicide mission with a bomb on their airplane. Patton takes Arras
2-28-44 "Valkyrie": the German Army arrests SS and Gestapo officers and takes power in the person of the ageing General Ludwig Beck, who immediately makes peace offers to the Western Allies, which are promptly rebuffed
March 1944 Mass surrenders of Germans troop to the Western Allies throughout Northern France and on the low Southern Bug river: some 400,000 PoWs taken. Central and Southern France garrisons withdraw orderly beyond the Aachen-Belfort line
3-1-44 New German Reichspraesident Ludwig Beck dissolves the Nazi party and order all KZ inmates to be liberated (except Communists) and a stop to the persecution of Jews
3-2-44 US troops occupy Amiens and St.-Quintin
3-3-44 Canadians occupy Gand/Gent (Flanders)
3-4-44 Waffen SS units accepts to cooperate with the new German government and keep fighting on the Galician front
3-5-44 Free French forces liberate Paris without fighting; British and Canadians liberate Bruxelles
3-6-44 Bradley's 5th US army enters Odessa hailed by the populace. Canadians occupy Antwerp
3-7-44 German 7th Army surrenders to the Americans at Rouen. Free French forces liberate Orléans; US troops take Reims. British forces occupy Namur, but can't cross the Meuse due to German resistance. Soviets take Baranowicze (Bielorussia). Royalist coup at Bucuresti; the Romanian government asks for an armistice with the Allies
3-8-44 Soviets retake Vilnius after a week-long fierce battle. Canadian forces are repuled by Germans at Breda and Tilburg
3-9-44 US aeronaval forces destroy the remnants of Japanese Fleet at the Battle of the Philippines Sea and land Marines and GIs on Saipan
3-10-44 The bulk of The German Heeresgruppe G breaks the thin Franco-American lines at Dijon and flees towards the Vosges. Italian troops evecuate Corsica following shootouts with local French forces, but don't move from Nizza/Nice
3-11-44 British troops take Liège after two days of hard fighting
3-12-44 Patton conquers Verdun. Bradley reaches the Dniestr at Tiraspol. German occupation forces begin the evacuation of Greece
3-13-44 British armored forces under Horrocks conquer Eindhoven. Patton forces the Meuse
3-16-44 Bradley occupies Chisinau (Moldova)
3-17-44 The Hungarian and Slovak governments ask for an armistice with the Western Allies alone, but not with the Soviets
3-18-44 Patton conquers Nancy after sustained fighting. Bradley's forces enter Romania proper at Iasi, accepting the final surrender of the Romanian Army. The Germans evacuate the country peacefully. British troops land at Nafplia in the Peloponnesos
3-20-44 German troops evacuate Athens just hours before the British land at the Pireo. US troops enter Bucuresti. The Bulgarians withdraw from Northern Greece and Yugoslavian Macedonia and ask for an armistice with the Western Alklies (they're not at war with the USSR) . Soviets retake Chernovtsy. British forces conquer Maastricht in Holland and Rach Gia in Southern Vietnam
3-22-44 The German garrisons of the Ionian and Cycladian Islands surrender to the British. US troops conquer Bastogne. Bradley occupies Craiova
3-24-44 Soviets recapture Tallinn. US troops reach the Siegfried Line and conquer some forts in the Ardennes. Patton conquers Luxembourg. French forces free Montbéliard. Bradley reaches the Iron Doors of the Danube at Turnu Severin, where he meets the first German resistance in almost a month. The Finns, never won on the battlefield, ask for an armistice with the Allies. Horrocks takes Nijmegen after a week of bloody fighting
3-27-44 The Soviets retake Ternopol'
3-28-44 Bradley occupies Timisoara. The last German troops evacuate Greece as the British land at Saloniki. The French liberate Belfort. US and Australian forces land in eastern Borneo between Balikpapan and Samarinda
4-1-44 Communist partisans and British forces enter Skoplje. Soviets retake Ivano-Frankovsk and Rovno. German forces in Norway begin evecuation and shipping to the eastern front
4-3-44 British forces accept the surrender of Serbian Nedist and Chetnik units at Nish
4-4-44 Bradley crosses the Tisza at Szolnok, metting only scattered resistance by German and Hungarian units
4-6-44 US landing on Guam. Yugoslav Communist partisans liberate Belgrade and massacre the collaborationst Nedist Serbian militia. German and Croatina forces entrench behind the Drina river. British forces land at Kirkenes (Northern Norway) and capture the local garrison after some fighting
4-9-44 British and Yugoslav Communist (Titoist) forces take Novi Sad
4-10-44 Soviet forces conquer Riga. The Germans retire towards Prussia in good order, fighting hard
4-11/18-44 Manstein defeats Konev at Stry (Galicia)
4-12-44 Final suicide of the last Japanese defenders at Saipan. The Finns accept Stalin's armistice proposal and begin withdraing into their 1941 borders
4-13-44 Bradley conquers Budapest after some days of fighting with the retreating Germans, and receves the unconditional surrender of Hungary. The evacuation of the German garrison of Hiiumaa and Saaremaa (Baltic Sea) is almost completely successful
4-18-44 British forces conquer Osijek. Titoist forces massively invade Italian-occupied Kosovo; Italian troops retire fighting to Montenegro and Albania
4-18/29-44 Japanese defend to the last man at Phnom Penh against the British
4-20-44 Patton manages to take the German fortress of Metz. US forces under Simpson conquer Aachen after a two-week siege
4-22-44 Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill jointly order Italy to evacuate "every square inch" of occupied Yugoslavia and France or taste the full force of Allied weapons. Titoist forces enter Sarajevo
4-23-44 Bradley conquer Gyor after three days of fighting. British forces take Pécs
4-25-44 Italian forces begin a hasty evacuation of Dalmatia and Montenegro, harassed continuously by partisan bands. German forces retire from occupied western Holland to a shorter line from Arnhem to the Ijselmeer. German forces complete the evacuation of Norway
4-28-44 British forces occupy Nagykanizsa oilfields (western Hungary). Canadian and Free Dutch forces enter a cheering Amsterdam. US marnes land on Babelthuap Island (Palau Islands)
May 1944 USAAF begins firebombing of Japanese cities. Fighting on the Western Front continues only in Holland, the Vosges and the Saar; informal truce on the Meuse and in the Ardennes. The Western Allies suspend the bombing of German cities
5-1-44 British forces take Varazhdin and enter Slovenia
5-4-44 Total extermination of Guam's Japanese garrison. Bradley takes Szombathely and enters Austria. The Italians complete the evacuation of Yugoslavia and begin evacuating Nizza/Nice
5-10-44 British forces take Marburg/Maribor. US forces evacuate Babelthuap, too heavily garrisoned. Its’ the first and only defeat of the Marines
5-12-44 Bradley takes Sopron
5-14-44 Patton takes Saarbrucken and 40,000 PoWs
5-17-44 "To avoid further bloodshed on German soil" German Heeresgruppe G surrenders to the Western Allies at Graz (350,000 PoWs). Feldmarshalll Von List gives himself prisoner to General Montgomery. Titoist forces take Banya Luka
5-19-44 Bradley enters Vienna hailed as a liberator. British forces, invited by the Croatian and Slovene themselves, occupy Zagreb and Ljubljana. Titoist partisan forces invade Italian Istria, but the Italians defend harshly with huge forces, massacring most of them
5-20-44 Patton takes Trier. Us forces land on Peleliu Island
5-23-44 Bradley enters Linz with no opposition
5-24-44 The Soviets recapture Lvov after a hard two-week fight
5-25-44 Bradley enters Salzburg, hen finds the resistance of scatterd Waffen-SS units
5-27-44 Patton enters Koblenz receiving the formal surrender of German Heeresgruppe C of Feldmarschall Model (250,000 PoWs)
5-31-44 Bradley enters Munich breaking the feeble resistance of some Waffen-SS and militia units. His 5th Army occupies Regensburg too. Montgomery's 8th British Army occupies Innsbruck. French forces conquer Mulhouse and capture 25,000 PoWs. Patton enters Frankfurt am-Main
June 1944 Many unarmed German soldiers flee to Switzerland and Sweden where they are put into custody camps
6-3-44 Bradley's US 5th Army occupies Nurnberg. Simpson's 9th Army occupies Koln
6-5-44 US forces occupy Wurzburg
6-6-44 A HUGE US Fleet (Think Normandy plus Leyte) covers American “rentrée” in the Philippines
6-7-44 Canadian forces manage to take Arnhem, reduced to rubble in a month of house-to-house fighting. Simpson's 9th US army occupies the Ruhr district
6-8/10-44 Suicide of the remnants of the Japanese Fleet in the Battle of Leyte
6-14-44 French forces liberate Haguenau and Strasbourg. Bradley's forces occupy Prague
6-17-44 British and French forces conquer Hanoi after bloody street fighting
6-18-44 German Heeresgruppe H (Blaskowitz) formally surrenders to Montgomery at Friedrichshafen (200,000 PoWs)
6-20-44 General Student surrenders his 1st Paratroop Army to Simpson at Osbnabruck. Australian forces land at Tarakan Island (Indonesia)
6-23-44 Canadian troop occupy Bremen
6-25-44 Canadian troops occupy Hamburg; US troops occupy Hannover, where the last bullets of the Western Campaign are shot
6-27-44 Formal surrender of the German garrison of Denmark at Kiel
6-30-44 Formal Allied "conquest" of Berlin and surrender of the German government in the hands of Major General Simpson. The Eastern Front, still active, along the Libau-Kaunas-Grodno-Pinsk-Przemys-Kosice line
7-1-44 Polish troops of Montgomery's 8th Army under Genral Anders enter Warsaw amongst the general enthusiasm. The Australian exterminate Tarakan’s Japanese garrison
7-1/8-44 German troops abandon the Ostfront and run to surrender to the Western Allies, who force them to surrender in the hands of the Poles or the Soviets. US-British troops garrison the new eastern borders of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania. Intentionally, the Western Allies and the Poles leave Eastern Prussia free fo the Russians, which overrun, massacre, rape and pillage the entire region. Thai rebellion against the Japs and the collaborationist government, with British help
7-10-44 British troops enter Bangkok. The isolated Japanese troops in Southern Burma begin a tragic withdrawal through the mountains and the jungles on the Rangoon-Chiang Mai-Vientiane-Hanoi route
7-27-44 Final suicide of last Japanese defenders at Peleliu
8-5-44 New US landing on Leyte at Ormoc
8-6-44 1000 bombers reduced 90% of Tokyo to ashes, 300,000 civilians killed (estimates). US marines land on Iwo Jima (Bonin Island) meeting the most fanatic Japanese resistance ever
9-9-44 The Americans complete the conquest of Leyte
9-15-44 US landing on Mindoro Island (Philippines). The last Japanese pocket at Iwo Jima is exterminated. Massive Soviet forces invade Manchuria
9-24-44 US landing on Luzon at Lingayen Bay
9-30-44 Soviets take Harbin crushing the Japanese Kwangtung Army, and discover Unit 731 experiments
October American and Philippine forces free the islands of Negros, Cebu, Panay and Bohol. Soviets occupy Korea. Horrendous plague epidemic in Manchuria and amongst the Red Army. The Stalinist cure for illness is a shot in the back of the neck
10-15-44 British-US landing on Hainan Island
10-27-44 Soviet and Maoist forces conquer Peking
11-3/26-44 Japs defend Manila to the last man fighting a house-to-house battle
11-27-44 The last pockets of Japanese resistance on Hainan are destroyed
12-6-44 US landing on Bohol Island (Philippines)
12-15-44 British and Commonwealth forces land at Shenzhen, near Hong Kong
1-30-45 After terrible losses and the worst city battle of WWII, Britsh and Commonwealth forces raise the Union Jack over the ruins of Hong Kong. Allied military and political chief decide not to do other great military operations, concentrating instead on arming and drilling Chiang Kai Shek’s froces for the inevitable final match with Mao’s Communists and the Red Army; the Bomb is in progress. Total blockade of Japanese Home Islands and round-the-clock bombing of already destroyed Japanese cities remain favourite hobbies in the meantime
February-August Tens of thousands of US-British “military advisors” flood Nationalist China (south of the Yellow River)
7-18-45 Alamogordo (boom!)
7-31-45 Due to the almost total destruction of any city in Japan after 14 months of round-the-clock relentless carpet bombings, the Americans are forced to announce publicly the development of the A-Bomb, and invite Japanese, Soviet, British, French, Italian and captive German military observer to watch a “demonstration” at Bikini Island. If the Japanese should not agree, the Bomb will be used on the Imperial Palace at Tokyo (strangely, still intact)
8-14-45 Bikini Demonstration. The Japanese representative is quite impressed, like any other.
8-15-45 Hirohito orders unconditional surrender of Japanese forces
9-2-45 The Japanese surrender is signed in Tokyo Harbor. WWII has ended


Mussolini looks around and says, "Whew! 'Twas a good idea not to take part in this war, after all!"
 
Have to suspect that Italian neutrality makes life very bad for Japan.

Their overall situation was that Japan could either go for broke, and be smashed, or surrender most of what they had. All this does is add several British divisions and substantial airpower to the Far East. I would postulate a bloody defeat for the RN in December 1941, where the Brits lose up to 3 carriers and 5 battleships, but the RAF's greater strength turns it into a pyrrhic victory for the Japanese, effectively Midway comes 6 months early. In addition, Singapore and southern Malaya are held for the Allies and much of northern Burma.

As a result, Japan commits earlier to a desperation effort to produce more planes and ships, and pushes ahead with Midway. The good news for Japan is that they manage to take Midway. The bad news is that between Singapore and Midway, Japan's 6 fleet carriers are all destroyed along with several battleships, but it is the charge of the battleships that gains the prestige as the winners of Midway. Japanese planes, either kamikazes or just pilots whose planes are hit, hit Pearl Harbor, torching the fuel facilities.

Why would Yugoslavia be hit at all? No doubt they also go neutral, inviting Hitler's dear friend Mussolin to send observers to confirm the honesty of Belgrade. Fearing RAF bombers near Ploesti, Hitler also leaves Greece alone.

Alternately, he does invade, Italy probably gets a few pieces for good behavior, and the Brits keep the Aegean along with Crete. The need to protect Ploesti becomes an annoyance. Perhaps a terminal Brit pilot flies his plane into some key sight and cause real problems to Germany?

US does send an expeditionary force to the USSR, where it gains great prestige and probably causes long term problems for Stalin.

Unable to stand out or win any notable victories, and certainly in no position to behave in a chivalric fashion, Rommel is seen as a solid and aggressive commander who rises to Lt. General before dying in Operation Bagration in summer of 1944(or it's counterpart).
 

Soundgarden

Banned
A temporary Jewish safe-haven perhaps? Mussolini wasn't necessarilly an anti-semite, and Italy was very reluctant to hand over the Jews to the Germans despite being an axis power. I can perhaps see many Jews flee to Italy as a temporary asylum, and perhaps migrate to Palestine earlier to form what would become a Jewish State. That would mean they would deal with two wars, against the surrounding Arabs States and against Germany.
 
1. Good for Italy, they won't get involved in that disastrous war.
2. Good for Germany, they won't have to bail out Mussolini. The Greek and North African campaigns avoided.
3. Good for the Allies, one less nation to fight.

Good for everyone!
 
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