What if the Japanese found oil in Mancheria in 1939?

Brilliantlight · Sep 22, 2004

What if the Japanese struck oil in the Daqing oil field in Manchuria ? Would they have gone to war with the US anyways or not? How would it have changed the war if the Japanese had there own supply of oil if a war still broke out?

David S Poepoe · Sep 22, 2004

The question would be will they be able to exploit the oilfields in any real sense once the US cuts off trade with them. Oil refineries don't spring up overnight, not to mention the infrastructure to get the oil from the refineries to a port.

However, in order to have a freehand in the Far East, in particular to move towards the Dutch East Indies or Indochina, the Japanese simply can't avoid the problem of a semi-hostile US in the Philippines sitting across their lines of communications. As with Britain Japan can be easily strangled by a submarine blockade, which unless the Imperial Navy moves its operations to Manchuria, will face the same problems as in OTL.

I would also wonder about the impact of the refusal of the US to continue to sell them scrap metal, but consider this to be relatively minor.

Brilliantlight · Sep 22, 2004

David S Poepoe said:
The question would be will they be able to exploit the oilfields in any real sense once the US cuts off trade with them. Oil refineries don't spring up overnight, not to mention the infrastructure to get the oil from the refineries to a port.

However, in order to have a freehand in the Far East, in particular to move towards the Dutch East Indies or Indochina, the Japanese simply can't avoid the problem of a semi-hostile US in the Philippines sitting across their lines of communications. As with Britain Japan can be easily strangled by a submarine blockade, which unless the Imperial Navy moves its operations to Manchuria, will face the same problems as in OTL.

I would also wonder about the impact of the refusal of the US to continue to sell them scrap metal, but consider this to be relatively minor.

I think it is doable for the Japanese who knew perfectly well how to build a refinery. Unless the US is insisting on having a war with Japan I don't see that a submarine blockade as likely. That is an act of war in and of itself.

DuQuense · Sep 22, 2004

perhaps move the discovery back 1 or 2 years, so the refenery comes on line in 1939. ?Would the Japanese even move towards the Southern Resourse Area.? Yes they still need Rubber from Indonesia,But if Europe knew that the American Oil Embargo was going to be a failure, ?Whould they go along with Embargoing Japan? in the first place.

A Japan that Sits out WW2 to consintrate on China.

Brilliantlight · Sep 22, 2004

DuQuense said:
perhaps move the discovery back 1 or 2 years, so the refenery comes on line in 1939. ?Would the Japanese even move towards the Southern Resourse Area.? Yes they still need Rubber from Indonesia,But if Europe knew that the American Oil Embargo was going to be a failure, ?Whould they go along with Embargoing Japan? in the first place.

A Japan that Sits out WW2 to consintrate on China.

OK, make it 1937 if that makes it that much easier.

David S Poepoe · Sep 22, 2004

Brilliantlight said:
I think it is doable for the Japanese who knew perfectly well how to build a refinery. Unless the US is insisting on having a war with Japan I don't see that a submarine blockade as likely. That is an act of war in and of itself.

Japanese tankers may have an easier time getting across the Sea of Japan during the War but they will still have to face US submarines as in OTL. There should also have to be an expansion of the Japanese merchant marine in order to facilitate transportation.

I think the European powers and US would still embargo goods to Japan since that is one of the things, even if only symbolic, to do when censuring another country. It would still have an impact, the question being where the cheaper oil is now coming from being one.

Japan's ties to Axis Powers will keep other wary of it intentions. US and Japanese interests in China are still on a collision course.

Tyr · Sep 22, 2004

They should be able to get it up fast, they wouldn't have been expecting to capture the Dutch empire totally intact and woudl have to set up transport from there, Manchuria is closer to Japan and they don't have war with a decent nation to worry about so should have no problems setting up.

Brilliantlight · Sep 22, 2004

David S Poepoe said:
Japanese tankers may have an easier time getting across the Sea of Japan during the War but they will still have to face US submarines as in OTL. There should also have to be an expansion of the Japanese merchant marine in order to facilitate transportation.

If there is a war and there very well might not be one

Brilliantlight · Sep 23, 2004

If we assume a war still breaks out, how much does having a decent supply of oil fairly close at hand effect the war? I think we might lose at Guadacanal as the Japanese have the oil to bomb the airstrip more often.