Taiwan independent 1992
- Thread starter tom
- Start date
Well, for one, this would cause a war between the US and China. One that might just include the use of nuclear weapons, leaving Taiwan unrecognizable.
HelloLegend
Banned
China will immediately invade Taiwan when the Green flag is raised over the Presidential Palace in Taipei.
Anaxagoras
Banned
I have always thought that Taiwain declaring independence might not lead to a U.S.-China confrontation, at least not directly. If China attacked Taiwan, it would be easy for the U.S. Navy to blockade China from a distance by blocking the Malacca Straits and effectively cutting China off from its oil supplies.
HelloLegend
Banned
A naval blockade is an act of war under the same international law that we ourselves recognize.
First, you have to look at what China could actually do to Taiwan. They lack the capacity to invade the island with large numbers, particularly in the face of the USN. Their activities would be limited to air and rocket/missile attacks. I really doubt they'd resort to using nukes on Taiwan... even they wouldn't want such international condemnation. I'd think that the rocket/missile strikes would be the worst threat... China does have a huge air force, but of dubious quality... Taiwan has a smaller but very high tech US-supplied air force, plus they'd have the US carrier aircraft on their side. It'd be the ultimate 'quality vs. quantity' battle. I have to wonder just how far the Chinese would go... would they really want to get into a scrap with their biggest international trading partner? One who could cut off their oil supplies fairly easily?
Hendryk
Banned
Back in 1992, Taiwan might--just might--have been able to pull it off, with a lot of luck. China's international diplomacy hadn't fully recovered from the crackdown on student demonstrators in June 1989, and its power projection capability was still underdeveloped. Also, with lingering Cold War-era reflexes still in place, there's little doubt the US and most of the Western world would have backed Taiwan up. China would have been quite mad about it, but may not have actually made good on its threats of war. OTOH, this may have given hard-liners in the Chinese politburo a timely excuse to make a comeback, and then all bets are off.
Another factor was that, at the time, Taiwan didn't have assets tied up on the mainland, which it now does. This gives China sizeable (and growing) leverage in case of renewed tensions.
But one should also have Taiwanese public opinion in mind. The independence issue is quite a volatile one, but back in 1992 there simply wouldn't have been a majority to support it, and with the KMT still in control of much of the state apparatus (democratization was only a couple of years old at the time), a bloodless coup with tacit public approval would have been entirely possible within days of the incoming administration declaring independence.
Another factor was that, at the time, Taiwan didn't have assets tied up on the mainland, which it now does. This gives China sizeable (and growing) leverage in case of renewed tensions.
But one should also have Taiwanese public opinion in mind. The independence issue is quite a volatile one, but back in 1992 there simply wouldn't have been a majority to support it, and with the KMT still in control of much of the state apparatus (democratization was only a couple of years old at the time), a bloodless coup with tacit public approval would have been entirely possible within days of the incoming administration declaring independence.
Possibilities...
I can only thnk of a few possibile outcomes, though there's many routes to them.
1. The radioactivity of the area is way up. Weather the regime in the provisional capital of China claims jurisdiction of the radioactive island hardly matters...
2. The communist regime in China falls after an embarassing defeat at sea/in the air.
3. China holds the shattered ruins--but I think that would lead to result 1.
4. Some face saving skirmishing, followed by a cease fire, and little or no Taiwanese investment in the rebel mainland. Bad news for China's economy.
5. Mainland China says, "Bad boys," but does nothing.
Whatever happens, US/Mainland China trade likely drops, or rather, never takes off. Perhaps US recognition of the Taiwanese government. If Mainland China squaks about there being one China, hopefully the US recognises the legitimate government and tells the Communists to take a hike.
That's assuming that the US doesn't get militarily involved. If it does, all bets are off...
I can only thnk of a few possibile outcomes, though there's many routes to them.
1. The radioactivity of the area is way up. Weather the regime in the provisional capital of China claims jurisdiction of the radioactive island hardly matters...
2. The communist regime in China falls after an embarassing defeat at sea/in the air.
3. China holds the shattered ruins--but I think that would lead to result 1.
4. Some face saving skirmishing, followed by a cease fire, and little or no Taiwanese investment in the rebel mainland. Bad news for China's economy.
5. Mainland China says, "Bad boys," but does nothing.
Whatever happens, US/Mainland China trade likely drops, or rather, never takes off. Perhaps US recognition of the Taiwanese government. If Mainland China squaks about there being one China, hopefully the US recognises the legitimate government and tells the Communists to take a hike.
That's assuming that the US doesn't get militarily involved. If it does, all bets are off...
HelloLegend
Banned
To NHBL
the KMT is now also controlled by Taiwanese independent sympathizers.
(The analogy would be if Howard Dean became the GOP chairman.)
The Old KMT that still believes in the ROC in exile concept as the legitimate Gov't of China split into Ching Ming Party and Xin Party. Neither of which can stand up to the KMT-DPP alliance in support.
Roughly 45% to 55% support full Independence, but 85% support autonomy.
"If Kasmir is the most dangerous place in the world, then the Taiwan Straits is the second most dangerous place in the world." - Josiah Bartlett.
the KMT is now also controlled by Taiwanese independent sympathizers.
(The analogy would be if Howard Dean became the GOP chairman.)
The Old KMT that still believes in the ROC in exile concept as the legitimate Gov't of China split into Ching Ming Party and Xin Party. Neither of which can stand up to the KMT-DPP alliance in support.
Roughly 45% to 55% support full Independence, but 85% support autonomy.
"If Kasmir is the most dangerous place in the world, then the Taiwan Straits is the second most dangerous place in the world." - Josiah Bartlett.
ninebucks
Banned
There wouldn't be a nuclear war. MAD is the golden rule, even in alternative history.
The Peoples' Liberation Army (Navy) would sail in, bombard the island and order its reunification. The Independence leaders would likely escape and be granted asylum is Singapore or somewhere.
The West would be quite annoyed, but no-one would ever seriously suggest an impossible war that would kill millions against a major trading partner.
The Peoples' Liberation Army (Navy) would sail in, bombard the island and order its reunification. The Independence leaders would likely escape and be granted asylum is Singapore or somewhere.
The West would be quite annoyed, but no-one would ever seriously suggest an impossible war that would kill millions against a major trading partner.
Back in 1992, the PLAN has no chance of defeating Taiwan's small, but advanced navy. Even after over a decade of improvements, they still would have a hard time doing so now. As always, the PRC can wreck Taiwan, or use the threat thereof to convince the ROC to surrender, but cannot successfully invade.
Faeelin
Banned
Tomorrow? The World sits by while a free and independent nation is conquered by a brutal dictatorship.